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Cleveland Browns (Finally drafting Buckeyes)

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Looking at the schedules the AFC North really lucked out other than having to play each other. The best team they all have to play is the 49ers. The Ravens get to play Miami, but if you want to see a gauntlet check out Miami's schedule, Bills twice, @Eagles, @Chiefs, Cowboys, and @Ravens. The scary thing is the Browns might be favored in at least 10 of their remaining games, but most of that is going to rely on the defense continuing to play lights out like they have been. We'll see how things look after the the next two games against the Ravens and 49ers. That being said both of those games are at home with the bye week in the middle while the 49ers get the Cowboys the week before they play the Browns. I know I'm going to get my heart ripped out at some point, but optimism is growing.

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exhawg said:
Looking at the schedules the AFC North really lucked out other than having to play each other. The best team they all have to play is the 49ers. The Ravens get to play Miami, but if you want to see a gauntlet check out Miami's schedule, Bills twice, @Eagles, @Chiefs, Cowboys, and @Ravens. The scary thing is the Browns might be favored in at least 10 of their remaining games, but most of that is going to rely on the defense continuing to play lights out like they have been. We'll see how things look after the the next two games against the Ravens and 49ers. That being said both of those games are at home with the bye week in the middle while the 49ers get the Cowboys the week before they play the Browns. I know I'm going to get my heart ripped out at some point, but optimism is growing.
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I'm trying to understand the graph. The Browns are giving up a first down on first down 9% of the time? And then another 9% of the time, they give up the first down on 2nd down. So 18% of the time, the other team gets a first down in the first 2 downs of the series. Then another 18% of the time they give up the first down on third down, so a total of 36% of the time the other team avoids getting to fourth down. About 2/3 of the time, if the opposing team has first down, they'll get to fourth down. That is crazy.

Look at the Cowboys - #3 on that chart. About 2/3 of the time (64%) the other team gets to third down. Not fourth down - third down.

The only team that stops the other team from converting before fourth down more than 50% of the time is the Browns.

I think I'm with you - optimism is growing, but remember that the Steelers still have to come to town, and they always have a cheat code to use. And some other team will figure out a way to put Patrick Mahomes on their team secretly. And Stefanski will continue to be a goober on fourth and short.
 
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Its one of those weird charts where its sorta hard to infer much beyond the browns don't let you get a first down on 62% of the plays you run. (And that is insane) because the rest of it is like the Panthers, well, you give up a lot of 1st downs on the opponent first down, they're not going to convert a lot on 3rd down because they just don't have many chances and they're just running a lot more plays that are first or second down.

Same thing with the Rams, they're pretty good on 3rd down, only 10%, but second down, hooo boy.
 
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