My early thoughts on the Browns' 2018 draft:
Baker Mayfield (QB, Oklahoma, #1 overall)
After passing on franchise quarterbacks in the past two drafts, and generally ignoring the most important position in sports for nearly two decades, the Browns were pretty much forced to use their first overall pick on a signal caller. The question is this: Was Baker Mayfield the best choice when three highly-rated traditional quarterbacks were also available? It's my strong suspicion that Mayfield's weaknesses (lack of size, small hands, lack of athleticism, inability to throw into tight windows) will be magnified in the NFL, while his strengths (football IQ, processing speed, work ethic, leadership) are merely to be expected from a starting NFL quarterback. And I'm not sure that a quarterback with "swagger" goes over well in the NFL ... in either locker room.
But let's make no mistake - Baker Mayfield isn't Johnny Football, The Sequel. Yes, there are some disturbing similarities between the two (diminutive size, punk attitude, Heisman jinx), but Mayfield is a football player through-and-through, while Manziel was always going to be a circus sideshow first and foremost. If Mayfield fails to become a franchise quarterback - and the odds are distinctly in favor of failure - then it will be primarily because he does not (and never will) possess the size and athleticism to excel at the position at the NFL level. There are legitimate reasons why the average starting NFL quarterback is 6-foot-4 ... and why two of the biggest quarterbacks in the NFL - Ben Roethlisberger (6' 5" and 240 pounds) and Joe Flacco (6' 6" and 245 pounds) - have won a combined three Super Bowls coming out of the AFC North ... and why most successful short quarterbacks (Russell Wilson, Tyrod Taylor) have "plus" athleticism and running ability. These are analytics that GMs ignore at their own risk.
Here's the biggest problem with this selection: Mayfield will have to outperform all of the other top quarterback prospects that the Browns passed on over the past three drafts (Carson Wentz, Deshaun Watson, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, and Josh Rosen) in order to justify this pick ... both to the fans and to ownership. And needless to say, that won't be an easy task. This was clearly John Dorsey's big swinging dick power play, and a strong signal to the coaching staff which he inherited that he is the man running the show, and that they had better find a way to make his players fit. But with this bold move, Dorsey has effectively given himself a three-year window in Cleveland. If Baker Mayfield isn't a definite franchise quarterback (let's say, at a minimum, Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota) by the end of the 2020 season, then Dorsey and his crew will be the next to join the Browns' graveyard of front office personnel.
Grade: C
Denzel Ward (CB, Ohio State, #4 overall)
Ward was the best player on the board at the position of the Browns' greatest need. With that being said, the Browns overdrafted Ward by a few spots and left a better overall player on the board (Bradley Chubb). If Ward becomes Marshon Lattimore 2.0, then this will be a great pick, but Joe Haden 2.0 is more likely.
Grade: B
Austin Corbett (OL, Nevada, #33 overall)
Corbett played left tackle for four years at Nevada, but at 6-foot-4 with shortish arms (33-1/8") he is destined to move inside at the NFL level. The problem is, the Browns appear to be set inside with Joel Bitonio, J.C. Tretter, and Kevin Zeitler all signed for at least the next two seasons. Another problem: Corbett currently lacks the mass (306 pounds) and strength (19 bench reps) to be effective inside. A confusing pick.
Grade: C
Nick Chubb (RB, Georgia, #35 overall)
The Browns passed on top-5 prospect Bradley Chubb, but selected his cousin Nick early in the second round. Nick Chubb has the size (227 pounds) and speed (4.52) to be a featured back in the NFL, but a serious knee injury during the 2015 season has to be at least a slight concern. Chubb does not possess third down skills, but the Browns have Duke Johnson to cover that aspect of the game. I would rather have Chubb's college teammate Sony Michel, who went to the Patriots four picks earlier, but this is a solid selection at a position of need.
Grade: B
Chad Thomas (DE, Miami, #67 overall)
Thomas is a football player slash rap producer, which is about the most 'Cane thing imaginable. He's supposedly a very good rap producer (he worked with Rick Ross), but it remains to be seen how good of a football player he is, or if he even wants to be on the gridiron instead of in the recording studio. One of those classic smartest-guy-in-the-room picks that the Browns are so famous for.
Grade: D
Antonio Callaway (WR, Florida, #105 overall)
Selecting Chad Thomas in the third round was silly, but drafting Antonio Callaway at all was downright stupid. His résumé includes allegations of credit card fraud, sexual assault, marijuana use, and a diluted sample at the combine. And to top it off, Callaway apparently doesn't like to put in the work in the film room and the weight room. The Browns have had more than their fair share of cancerous characters in the locker room in recent years, and the product on the field has suffered because of it. Did it really make sense to add another jackass to the mix? A complete waste of a fourth round pick.
Grade: F
Genard Avery (LB, Memphis, #150 overall)
Despite having a squatty build (6-foot-1, 250 pounds), Avery has superior strength (state power lifting champ) and athleticism (4.59 forty, 36" vertical). He also had a productive career, with 230 tackles, 44.5 TFLs, 21.5 sacks, and a pair of interceptions (both pick sixes) while playing both inside and outside linebacker. And unlike some of the other Browns draftees, Avery has no known character issues. So what's not to like? Avery lacks ideal length and instincts to be an every down player, but he is expected to be an immediate star on special teams. This is just the kind of prospect that you want to get in the fifth round - a guy who can contribute right away and maybe develop into something more down the road.
Grade: A-
Damion Ratley (WR, Texas A+M, #175 overall)
Simeon Thomas (CB, Louisiana-Lafayette, #188 overall)
Round six is where teams can legitimately afford to blow picks on players with immense talent but with significant risks and/or question marks (as the Browns did with Caleb Brantley in last year's draft). Alternatively, it's the round where teams can feel comfortable taking flyers on relative unknowns with XFL floors and huge upsides. Damion Ratley has great size (6-foot-3, 190 pounds) and athleticism (4.45 forty, 38" vertical), but he caught only 47 passes in 21 games over three seasons. Ratley appears to be a late bloomer (30 receptions, 694 yards, 23.1 average, 6 touchdowns as a senior), so he might be able to develop into a functional NFL receiver given time. Thomas is another physical specimen (6-foot-2, 197 pounds), but he was dogged by academic and character issues in college that limited him to 31 games over five years. When he did play, Thomas managed to record 90 tackles, 21 passes defensed, and a pair of interceptions. Not great stats, but tall corners are hard to find.
Grade: INC
Overall Draft Thoughts
Like it or not, for better or worse, the Browns got their quarterback of the future (Baker Mayfield). They also got a bell cow running back (Nick Chubb) and a lock down corner (Denzel Ward), so they filled their three biggest positions of need with high draft choices. Later in the draft, they also got a couple of intriguing prospects (LB Genard Avery, WR Damion Ratley) who have a good chance to make the team as special teamers and role players. However, the Browns virtually wasted their third and fourth round selections on a guy who has numerous character issues (WR Antonio Callaway) and a guy who might prefer to be somewhere else (DE Chad Thomas). The Browns did not get Joe Thomas's replacement at left tackle (Austin Corbett isn't that guy), but they generally did a good job in picking up talent and filling holes. Bottom line: This will forever be known as the Baker Mayfield draft, and new GM John Dorsey's legacy in Cleveland will be based largely on Mayfield's success or failure. I personally would not have taken that risk, but what do I know?
Grade: C+ (but could've been a solid "B" with better picks in the middle rounds)
