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- Thread starter BB73
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Congratulations, Cincy. If your fans had behaved better this year, I might have celebrated this one with you too. Good offense.
I think we need to stop this "BCS will screw Cincy" stuff before that train leaves the station. They do not deserve a shot at the NC anymore than an undefeated Ohio State would.
Win-loss record is a poor indicator of team performance because of differences in strength of schedule.
Cincy did not even play a SOS comprised of teams with a combined winning schedule.
The computer SOS ratings tell the entire story. Both teams will have a SOS ranking below #50 on most computers and typically below #60, if I am correct and the Pitt game lifts Cincy above #70 and another loss by USC drops Ohio State a bit.
Now, I know that Cincy fans will point to a good early season win against Oregon State and to our loss against USC. I would counter that both games might be very different if played today.
They might feel that Texas doesn't deserve to play in the NC game more than they do, after a close game against Nebraska. I would remind them of their equally close scrapes against weaker UConn and West Virginia teams. If they objectively look at SOS on the computers Texas played a far tougher schedule, whether measured in the computer power rating or combined winning record of those teams.
Texas is #2 on the computers when margin of victory is included and Cincy is not even in the top 10 and place well behind Ohio State.
Cincy has had a great, undefeated year, so far. Well done! However, they are not a NC team.
The argument that fits the Boise State's of the world, fits all.
I think we need to stop this "BCS will screw Cincy" stuff before that train leaves the station. They do not deserve a shot at the NC anymore than an undefeated Ohio State would.
Win-loss record is a poor indicator of team performance because of differences in strength of schedule.
Cincy did not even play a SOS comprised of teams with a combined winning schedule.
The computer SOS ratings tell the entire story. Both teams will have a SOS ranking below #50 on most computers and typically below #60, if I am correct and the Pitt game lifts Cincy above #70 and another loss by USC drops Ohio State a bit.
Now, I know that Cincy fans will point to a good early season win against Oregon State and to our loss against USC. I would counter that both games might be very different if played today.
They might feel that Texas doesn't deserve to play in the NC game more than they do, after a close game against Nebraska. I would remind them of their equally close scrapes against weaker UConn and West Virginia teams. If they objectively look at SOS on the computers Texas played a far tougher schedule, whether measured in the computer power rating or combined winning record of those teams.
Texas is #2 on the computers when margin of victory is included and Cincy is not even in the top 10 and place well behind Ohio State.
Cincy has had a great, undefeated year, so far. Well done! However, they are not a NC team.
The argument that fits the Boise State's of the world, fits all.
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kippy1040
Hall of Fame
Steve 19 states that Cincy is not a N/C team. Was Ohio State a N/C team in 2002 ? Cincinnati of 2009 looked more like the Ohio State of 2002 in my opinion. our games with Cincy - Purdue - Illinois and Michigan easily could have been losses in 2002. And alot of us were saying that we hoped we could just stay close against Miami in the N/C game of 2003 and looked what happened.
Last night i watched a very puzzeling game with Texas and Nebraska. I would have bet my bottom dollar that Texas would blow Nebraska out of the water. And then for a while i was thinking that if Nebraska could have held on to upset Texas, then would the BCS be in line to have a N/C game with TCU and Cincinnati. What would we be saying then ?
My question then is this. Who really is worthy of a National Championship game this year ? Did the WHOLE Division One have a down year? I guess
there is room for argument there, but all this will go on forever and a day
until we have a true system of coming up with a legitimen way solving the
playoffs. Steve 19 brings up some good valid points on his idea of the SOS for all teams. It does bear some good thought. But one thing i have always said is that all college football teams are much stronger in the ending season games than in the beginning. All the traditional rivalries across the nation bring out the best for all purpose of Pride and honor for your last game played. This is what makes college games so great. To watch teams and players give there best performance with such intensity to go out with hopefully is a feeling of honor and that you gave it your best shot. YEP. I agree. The Boise States of the World, fits all.
Last night i watched a very puzzeling game with Texas and Nebraska. I would have bet my bottom dollar that Texas would blow Nebraska out of the water. And then for a while i was thinking that if Nebraska could have held on to upset Texas, then would the BCS be in line to have a N/C game with TCU and Cincinnati. What would we be saying then ?
My question then is this. Who really is worthy of a National Championship game this year ? Did the WHOLE Division One have a down year? I guess
there is room for argument there, but all this will go on forever and a day
until we have a true system of coming up with a legitimen way solving the
playoffs. Steve 19 brings up some good valid points on his idea of the SOS for all teams. It does bear some good thought. But one thing i have always said is that all college football teams are much stronger in the ending season games than in the beginning. All the traditional rivalries across the nation bring out the best for all purpose of Pride and honor for your last game played. This is what makes college games so great. To watch teams and players give there best performance with such intensity to go out with hopefully is a feeling of honor and that you gave it your best shot. YEP. I agree. The Boise States of the World, fits all.
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Honor&Glory
Paper,Rock, Scissors, Lizard, Spock!
Steve19;1614533; said:
I thought they showed last night on ESPN that UC's opponents winning % (FBS schools only) was .515? I guess if you factor in their non FBS opponennt that % does fall under .500
of course, by way of comparrison, Texas' % was below .500 without adding in its non-FBS opponents.
Not arguing Cincy is better than Texas...just pointing to the weakness of this particular part of your argument.
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Cinfali;1614525; said:
Boise State and TCU are considered Mid Majors. Cincinati is a major conference team. I know people don't like to hear it, but the Big East is still a major conference. I could give a rat's ass about Cincinnati, but they didn't backdoor their way into the BCS, they won an automatic bid.
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kippy1040;1614563; said:
Kippy, I also think a playoff system is what is required.
In the outcome of their games, I see the comparison of Ohio State 2002 and Cincy 2009, but not in the body of work.
Here is a link to the Sagarin's for that year: (link)
The 2002 Ohio State national champions
- Ohio State beat 7 of the top 20 teams in the 2002 Sagarin power ratings and 3 in the top 10 (Miami in the NC game).
- Ohio State played the #30 ranked SOS that year.
- They were ranked #1 in ELO (the BCS formula) I recall that we were #2 before the draw.
- They were #8 in Predictor.
- They were one of two undefeated teams.
- Cincinnati beat 2 of the top 20 teams in the 2009 Sagarin power ratings and none in the top 10.
- Cincinnati played the #63 ranked SOS that year, which is four places below Ohio State in this "down Big Ten" year.
- They were ranked #3 in ELO (the BCS formula).
- They are #12 in Predictor.
- They were one of five undefeated teams.
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Honor&Glory;1614575; said:
H&G, don't understand how you interpret this to be a weakness in my argument. It is a weakness in your team's body of work. Your fans are not claiming to be 11-0. That off week against a lower division opponent inflated lots of statistics for your team in a 70-3 romp.
I'll let you compare the body of work yourself as it was before the games yesterday. Given wins and losses within conferences, it doesn't change much (i.e. WVa won, Rutgers lost, etc)
Texas: 83 wins and 73 losses (53.2% wins)
Date Opponent W L Result PF PA
Thu 11/26/09 at Texas A&M 6 6 W 49 39
Sat 11/21/09 Kansas 5 7 W 51 20
Sat 11/14/09 at Baylor 4 8 W 47 14
Sat 11/07/09 UCF 8 4 W 35 3
Sat 10/31/09 at Oklahoma St 9 3 W 41 14
Sat 10/24/09 at Missouri 8 4 W 41 7
Sat 10/17/09 vs Oklahoma 7 5 W 16 13
Sat 10/10/09 Colorado 3 9 W 38 14
Sat 09/26/09 UTEP 4 8 W 64 7
Sat 09/19/09 Texas Tech 8 4 W 34 24
Sat 09/12/09 at Wyoming 6 6 W 41 10
Sat 09/05/09 ULM 6 6 W 59 20
Sat 12/05/09 vs Nebraska 9 3 -- 0 0
Cincinnati: 67 wins 68 losses (49.6% wins)
Date Opponent W L Result PF PA
Fri 11/27/09 Illinois 3 8 W 49 36
Fri 11/13/09 West Virginia 8 3 W 24 21
Sat 11/07/09 Connecticut 6 5 W 47 45
Sat 10/31/09 at Syracuse 4 8 W 28 7
Sat 10/24/09 Louisville 4 8 W 41 10
Thu 10/15/09 at South Florida 7 4 W 34 17
Sat 10/03/09 at Miami OH 1 11 W 37 13
Sat 09/26/09 Fresno St 7 4 W 28 20
Sat 09/19/09 at Oregon St 8 3 W 28 18
Sat 09/12/09 SE Missouri St 2 9 W 70 3
Mon 09/07/09 at Rutgers 8 3 W 47 15
Sat 12/05/09 at Pittsburgh 9 2 -- 0 0
Ohio State: 75 wins 66 losses (53.2%)
Sat 11/21/09 at Michigan 5 7 W 21 10
Sat 11/14/09 Iowa 10 2 W 27 24
Sat 11/07/09 at Penn St 10 2 W 24 7
Sat 10/31/09 New Mexico St 3 9 W 45 0
Sat 10/24/09 Minnesota 6 6 W 38 7
Sat 10/17/09 at Purdue 5 7 L 18 26
Sat 10/10/09 Wisconsin 8 3 W 31 13
Sat 10/03/09 at Indiana 4 8 W 33 14
Sat 09/26/09 Illinois 3 8 W 30 0
Sat 09/19/09 vs Toledo 5 7 W 38 0
Sat 09/12/09 USC 8 3 L 15 18
Sat 09/05/09 Navy 8 4 W 31 27
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Steve19;1614591; said:
Updated to reflect Wisconsin's win last night, and Illinois' loss.
Actually, none of these stats reflect this week's games...
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Honor&Glory
Paper,Rock, Scissors, Lizard, Spock!
Steve19;1614591; said:
fair enough, Steve. No issue with this. Just basing my numbers on what ESPiN showed late last night and they had UC's opponents winning % at .515 (FBS only). But I see what you're saying and that is a fair assesment of the facts.
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Personally, I think the big 10 is stronger from top to bottom, and I think that the overall style of play within the two conferences favors the Big 10, which is more physical, but beyond that it is interesting.kippy1040;1614596; said:
The Big 10 has three 10+ win teams, OSU, PSU and Iowa, as well as one 9 win team in Wisconsin. After those four, it kind of drops off. Northwestern quietly had an 8-4 seasons, but have not really been consistant, and Michigan State would probably be after them at 6-6 (That's a big drop off). Indiana, Illinois, Michigan and Minnesota (Especially after they lost their WR) are outright dreadful. Purdue is a real wild card, but based on their record, they aren't good (tied for 4th in conference, but not even bowl eligible).
The Big East only has eight teams, six of which are bowl eligible with records of 7-5 or better. Cincy is 12-0 of course, and WVU and Pitt are 9-3. After that Rutgers, who had a losing record in conference is 8-4. South Florida and UConn are 7-5. Louisville and Syracuse are just bad, but somehow won 3 games OOC each.
I guess someone could make an argument for the Big East just based on the fact that they have far fewer stinky teams. The 2 7-5 teams are better than the Big 10's 2 6-6 teams (Minnesota and Michigan State) Even if the Big 10 has 5 solidly good teams, I kind of question Northwestern, since we didn't play them, and they didn't play Michigan either (Michigan can still pull one out once in a while based on name recognition alone, just ask Indiana). I think the top 4 Big 10 Teams would beat the top 4 Big East teams, but after that, I am not sure. Cincinnati's offense really is THAT good, but thier defense is a weakness that teams could exploit.
Overall, I would rate the conferences fairly even this year - The Big 10 is stronger at the top, the Big East stronger in the middle/bottom I would rank the the conferences at about the same level as the Big 12/Pac 10, Behind the SEC, and ahead of the ACC. I would probably rank the Mountain West at about the same level as the Big East, with the Sun Belt, WAC, MAC and Conference USA well behind the ACC.
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Updated data for Cincinnati
Date Opponent W L Result PF PA
Fri 11/27/09 Illinois 3 9 W 49 36
Fri 11/13/09 West Virginia 9 3 W 24 21
Sat 11/07/09 Connecticut 7 5 W 47 45
Sat 10/31/09 at Syracuse 4 8 W 28 7
Sat 10/24/09 Louisville 4 8 W 41 10
Thu 10/15/09 at South Florida 7 5 W 34 17
Sat 10/03/09 at Miami OH 1 11 W 37 13
Sat 09/26/09 Fresno St 8 4 W 28 20
Sat 09/19/09 at Oregon St 8 4 W 28 18
Sat 09/12/09 SE Missouri St 2 9 W 70 3 - I don't know if this was their final record.
Mon 09/07/09 at Rutgers 8 4 W 47 15
Sat 12/05/09 at Pittsburgh 9 3 W 45 44
Date Opponent W L Result PF PA
Fri 11/27/09 Illinois 3 9 W 49 36
Fri 11/13/09 West Virginia 9 3 W 24 21
Sat 11/07/09 Connecticut 7 5 W 47 45
Sat 10/31/09 at Syracuse 4 8 W 28 7
Sat 10/24/09 Louisville 4 8 W 41 10
Thu 10/15/09 at South Florida 7 5 W 34 17
Sat 10/03/09 at Miami OH 1 11 W 37 13
Sat 09/26/09 Fresno St 8 4 W 28 20
Sat 09/19/09 at Oregon St 8 4 W 28 18
Sat 09/12/09 SE Missouri St 2 9 W 70 3 - I don't know if this was their final record.
Mon 09/07/09 at Rutgers 8 4 W 47 15
Sat 12/05/09 at Pittsburgh 9 3 W 45 44
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Bleed S & G
Taking Crazy Pills
I raped Alex Daniels in NCAA 05 when he was a senior at Brookhaven. It's too bad he went to Minny with the Brookhaven guys and not tOSU, he's a player.. plus the whole rape scandal thing in Minny wouldn't have occuredCinfali;1614525; said:
Just wanted to post that I whooped his ass in NCAA 05 in high school.
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