• New here? Register here now for access to all the forums, download game torrents, private messages, polls, Sportsbook, etc. Plus, stay connected and follow BP on Instagram @buckeyeplanet and Facebook.

Cincinnati Reds 2018 season (It's that time of year again)

Jump to latest Follow Reply
Sort by date Sort by votes
Jaxbuck said:
Update for games played through 5/12

Holy shit. What just happened? 8 wins on the season coming into this past week and they win 5??

Let's look under the hood and see if we can figure out exactly what in the fuck is going on here.

I am officially renaming this section "hitting" instead of just "coming to plate with bats in hand". I spend a fair amount of time eviscerating these slappy bastards when they fail, might as well acknowledge when they have some modicum of success (even though we all know it won't last).

Run Creation-Hitting:
  • OBP .322, T14th best in MLB
    • K% 20.8%, 8th best in MLB
  • ISO, .132, 2nd worst MLB
    • SLG .376, 4th worst MLB
    • HR's 35, 4th fewest in MLB
  • Runs scored 163, 16th in MLB
Once again, good at avoiding outs but limited power so how do they continue to improve in scoring runs? They aren't stealing a lot of bases (20th in MLB), it doesn't appear to be unsustainable luck (BABIP .293) and most of their hits are singles so WTF? Here are the things I found they are really good at

LD% 25.1, 1st in MLB
Bunt hits 11, 1st in MLB (6 of which are from Peraza)
Swinging Strike% 8.9%, 1st in MLB
Contact %, 80.4%, 1st in MLB

They are making a ton of contact and spraying line drive singles all over the place. Jose Peraza is an elite bunter. That is all I can tell you right now.

Continuing the eye test theme, Winker is a ball player and Peraza is growing on me. Hamilton continues to suck the life out of me with his inability to get on base/learn how to bunt.
Pro Tip; watch Peraza you dumb fuck.

wRC+ by position (100 is average)
  1. 3B Suarez 144
  2. 2B Gennett 142
  3. 1B Votto 134
  4. C Barnhardt 121
  5. OF Schebler 108
  6. RF Winker 100
  7. SS Peraza 80
  8. CF Hamilton 72
Run Prevention 1-Pitching:
  • k/9 7.87, 7th worst in MLB
  • BB/9 3.69, 8th worst in MLB
  • WHIP 1.40, 9th worst in MLB
  • HR/9 1.49, worst in MLB
  • ERA 4.78, 6th worst in MLB
  • Runs Allowed 201, 6th worst in MLB
As god awful as those numbers are, they have improved in every category. Tip of the cap to trimming the team ERA under 5.


Run prevention 2-Defense:

I am just going to pick FanGraph's total defensive rating as a point of reference. You can go look at any others you choose, I am guessing they will all say about the same thing.

-7.1, 3rd worst in MLB

You see it every night, other than Hamilton in CF and Barnhart at C they are butchers at every other position (some mix of lack of range, weak arm, band hands or inability to judge fly balls).

Team record
  • 13 wins-27 losses, T-2nd worst in MLB
  • -38 Run Diff, 7th worst in MLB
  • FanGraphs is predicting 95 losses which would be 3rd worst in MLB behind Miami and CWS for overall #1 pick.
  • Orioles may well have the inside track here considering they are likely going to trade Machado at some point. Already in 1st place for losses and run diff at -77. Going to be hard to outsuck them.
My call last week was 10-29, they are now 13-27.

The week ahead:
Today @ Dodgers
Mon-Wed @ SF Giants
Thur off
Fri& Sat 3 home games with Cubs (Saturday double header)

I say they win 3 so call it 16-31 when next we meet.
Click to expand...

Update for games played through 5/19

They come in at exactly 16-31 so they are predictable as death and taxes yet again. Depressing details to follow.

Run Creation-Hitting:
  • OBP .319, T16th best in MLB
    • K% 21.3%, 10th best in MLB
  • ISO, .136, 3rd worst MLB
    • SLG .377, 3rd worst MLB
    • HR's 44, T7th fewest in MLB
  • Runs scored 190, 20th in MLB
Continued improvement but still a bottom 1/3 of MLB offense

LD% 24.6, 1st in MLB
Bunt hits 12, 1st in MLB (6 of which are from Peraza)
Swinging Strike% 9.1%, 1st in MLB
Contact %, 80.1%, 2nd in MLB

wRC+ by position (100 is average)
  1. 3B Suarez 149
  2. 2B Gennett 137
  3. 1B Votto 131
  4. C Barnhardt 114
  5. OF Schebler 107
  6. OF Duvall 94, Winker 85
  7. CF Hamilton 70
  8. SS Peraza 63
The OF is a pile of steaming mediocrity considering none but Hamilton are good defenders.

Run Prevention 1-Pitching:
  • k/9 7.98, 8th worst in MLB
  • BB/9 3.8, 6th worst in MLB
  • WHIP 1.45, 4th worst in MLB
  • HR/9 1.42, 3rd worst in MLB
  • ERA 4.94, 5th worst in MLB
  • Runs Allowed 244, 4th worst in MLB
One of the 5 worst pitching staffs in baseball. People continue to try and tell me Castillo, Mahle and Romano are good. I remain dubious.

Here is your starting staff so far, posted with no further commentary:

upload_2018-5-20_11-15-38.png


Run prevention 2-Defense:

Continuing to use FanGraph's total defensive rating as a point of reference:

-5.6, T8th worst in MLB

To quote a famous manager; this is a simple game. You throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the ball. These guys are varying levels of MLB worst at all 3.

Team record
  • 16 wins-31 losses, t-worst in MLB
  • -54 Run Diff, 6th worst in MLB
  • FanGraphs is predicting 96 losses which would be tied for 3rd worst in MLB behind Miami and CWS for overall #1 pick.
My call last week was 16-31 and they are, sadly enough, exactly 16-31.

The week ahead
Today: Cubs
Mon: off
Tue,Wed,Thur: Pirates
Fri& Sat: @ Colorado Rockies

Feels like a 1 win week coming up. Call it 17-36 when next we meet.
 
Upvote 0
Mahle

5069675.gif
 
Upvote 0
Went to the game yesterday. My dad was hosting his college fraternity brother and best friend. Both are 82 years old. My dad’s friend is a personal hero of mine for the service he gave to our country (flew 160 missions in Vietnam as an electronic warfare officer as part of a B52 crew and has a display case at the Airfoce Museum as a result). Life long Reds fan. Told me a story about being in Crosley when Klu hit a home run that was hit so hard on a low line drive that the second baseman for The Milwaukee Braves actually leaped and tipped it with his glove but the ball still left the yard.

Sorry for digressing...my point was both he and my dad confirmed that this is the worst reds team they have ever seen and both were incredibly sad by that fact.
 
Upvote 0
I'm flying into Denver late Saturday afternoon and am actually considering making the effort to go see these bums at Coora Field. Seriously....what in the actual fuck is wrong with me?
 
Upvote 0
Fungo Squiggly said:
I'm flying into Denver late Saturday afternoon and am actually considering making the effort to go see these bums at Coora Field. Seriously....what in the actual fuck is wrong with me?
Click to expand...
Don't look at it as if you're going to see the Reds in Coors. Think of it as going to Coors to catch a game because.. well.. how many chances are you gonna get to see a ball game at Coors? The Reds just happen to be there too.
 
Upvote 0
Buckeyeskickbuttocks said:
Don't look at it as if you're going to see the Reds in Coors. Think of it as going to Coors to catch a game because.. well.. how many chances are you gonna get to see a ball game at Coors? The Reds just happen to be there too.
Click to expand...
And they'll also be watching a game at Coors.
 
Upvote 0
This comes from the Yahoo fantasy baseball site but, whatever. This shit is funny. And spot on.

Billy Hamilton, Cincinnati Reds
Billy Hamilton has eight steals in 46 games — the classic “you can’t steal first.” That’s while bunting for a hit on a league-high rate of 25.9% of plate appearances (average is 2.2%). You can’t punt all those homers and RBI in an outfield slot. Hamilton combines an inability to generate any power with massive swing-and-miss (50 Ks in 143 ABs). His well-hit is .028, which is little-league stuff. But as my friend Gene McCaffrey of WiseGuyBaseball says, Hamilton’s goal should be weak grounders. But when you think about this further, it really means he’s not a major-league player.
Click to expand...

You don’t say?!

https://sports.yahoo.com/news/8-frustrating-fantasy-baseball-hitters-owners-184225958.html
 
Upvote 0
CFPBuckeye said:
This comes from the Yahoo fantasy baseball site but, whatever. This shit is funny. And spot on.



You don’t say?!

https://sports.yahoo.com/news/8-frustrating-fantasy-baseball-hitters-owners-184225958.html
Click to expand...
I boo’d him on Sunday. Nothing malicious or vulgar. Just a loud boo when he was announced before an at bat. The dirty looks I got from fans around me tells me all I needed to know about the mouth breathing fucktards that call themselves Reds fans. They have all out love for a total piece of shit player and ‘fuck you’ for not loving him.
 
Upvote 0
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top