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CBS Strength of Schedule

jwinslow

A MAN OF BETRAYED JUSTICE
Staff member
Tourney Pick'em Champ
CBS said:
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr valign="top"><td>Heels coach says brutal schedule builds toughness
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</td> <td nowrap="nowrap"> May 31, 2005
By Dennis Dodd
CBS SportsLine.com Senior Writer
Tell Dennis your opinion!
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</td> <td> [font=Arial, Helvetica] <!-- T8521762 --><!-- Sesame Modified: 06/01/2005 01:53:34 --> <!-- sversion: 8 $Updated: lylec$ --> [/font] [font=Arial, Helvetica] This is the last of a weeklong SportsLine.com series on college football scheduling. Today: Strength of schedule. [/font]

[font=Arial, Helvetica] North Carolina's schedule is a joke. Not in the I-AA, cream-puff, pushover sense. More like: What the Heel is John Bunting thinking? [/font]

[font=Arial, Helvetica] "I've got to believe we have the toughest schedule," said Bunting, heading into his fifth season as coach of that other sport in Chapel Hill. "Our kids know that." [/font]

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</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="180"> John Bunting's Tar Heels were 6-6 in 2004. (Getty Images) </td> <td width="15">
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> [font=Arial, Helvetica] Hard to tell whether that is a boast or a cry for help. Some of it has been inherited, some of it is manufactured, but North Carolina's schedule has a lot in common with Ashlee Simpson's treatment of the musical scale. [/font]

[font=Arial, Helvetica] Both are brutal. [/font]

[font=Arial, Helvetica] If anything, the degree of difficulty has increased for 2005. [/font]

[font=Arial, Helvetica] North Carolina and Georgia Tech tied for No. 1 in schedule strength, according to the formula devised by CBS SportsLine.com. That's not exactly a surprise considering Carolina had the second-toughest schedule in 2004, according to the NCAA and was No. 1 in the respected Sagarin Ratings. [/font]

[font=Arial, Helvetica] The catch is that schedule strength doesn't necessarily translate into success. In fact, it makes it damn hard for programs like Carolina. Since 2001, the Heels are 6-9 in non-conference games, 2-6 against teams from BCS leagues. [/font]

[font=Arial, Helvetica] A team like Kansas State has played a total of eight BCS-league non-conference games in the past 11 years. North Carolina did it in the past four, having played teams from seven different leagues during that span as the joke took shape. [/font]

[font=Arial, Helvetica] "Some of that scheduling was there (when I arrived) and the ACC wasn't the way it is today," Bunting said. "The ACC the way it is now, you don't want to be scheduling powerhouses." [/font]

[font=Arial, Helvetica] <table align="left" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1" width="50%"> <tbody><tr class="bg0"> <td colspan="3"> Rating by Conferences </td> </tr> <tr class="bg1"> <td> Rnk </td> <td> Conference </td> <td> Rating </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 1 </td> <td> Big East </td> <td> 1.2955 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 2 </td> <td> SEC </td> <td> 1.1887 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 3 </td> <td> Big 12 </td> <td> 1.1750 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 4 </td> <td> ACC </td> <td> 1.1544 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 5 </td> <td> Pac-10 </td> <td> 1.1294 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 6 </td> <td> Indep. </td> <td> 1.0883 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 7 </td> <td> Big Ten </td> <td> 1.0716 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 8 </td> <td> WAC </td> <td> 0.9094 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 9 </td> <td> M. West </td> <td> 0.8908 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 10 </td> <td> MAC </td> <td> 0.7853 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 11 </td> <td> C-USA </td> <td> 0.7362 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 12 </td> <td> Sun Belt </td> <td> 0.6661 </td> </tr> </tbody></table> [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] Bunting, 54, arrived at his alma mater at a weird time. ACC expansion had yet to become an issue in 2001. North Carolina was initially against it. [/font]

[font=Arial, Helvetica] Meanwhile, the schedule had been upgraded from the Mack Brown-Carl Torbush days. With expansion, Miami is an annual opponent in the ACC Coastal Division and the non-conference hits just keep on coming. This year's out-of-league Burma Road includes Wisconsin, Utah and Louisville, a combined 32-4 in 2004. [/font]

[font=Arial, Helvetica] "I was one that wanted it, because I think it will help us in recruiting," Bunting said of expansion. "I think we're the best university in the ACC, in terms of everything it has to offer." [/font]

[font=Arial, Helvetica] Bunting asked his first team if they wanted to travel to Oklahoma to open the season in '01. What do kids know? Of course, the seniors voted enthusiastically to play the Sooners in their first game since winning the 2000 national championship. [/font]

[font=Arial, Helvetica] "We almost got blown out in the first five, six minutes," he said. "A turnover returned for a touchdown, a kickoff returned for a touchdown. It was 28-0 at the end of the first quarter." [/font]

[font=Arial, Helvetica] The Heels were respectable, losing by 14, but in the second week of September 2001, Bunting's first team was 0-3 after roadies to Oklahoma, Maryland and Texas. Then 9/11 hit, pushing a layup against SMU to the end of the season. But a funny thing happened during the two-week layoff -- Carolina got better. It beat Florida State at home, starting a five-game winning streak, the highlight of an 8-5 season. [/font]

[font=Arial, Helvetica] In 2002, Carolina played Syracuse (win) and Texas (loss) back-to-back. In 2004, Louisville and Utah popped up on the schedule. The two top 10 teams whipped the Heels by a combined 80-16. [/font]

[font=Arial, Helvetica] "Who knew that Louisville was going to be like they are (11-1)?" Bunting said. "Who knew that Utah was going to have Alex Smith and Urban Meyer was going to construct that type of offense that destroyed everybody?" [/font]

[font=Arial, Helvetica] Before this year's first spring practice, Bunting had a short film made for his team embracing the schedule issue. It starred fifth-year quarterback Matt Baker. [/font]

[font=Arial, Helvetica] "He's going through the schedule, eyeballing it in the lockerroom," Bunting said. "The first time he shakes his head. The second time he goes, 'Oh wow' and the third time he goes, 'Holy S---, look at this schedule?'" [/font]

[font=Arial, Helvetica] Then, mimicking a current office supplier commercial, Baker presses the "easy" button. [/font]

[font=Arial, Helvetica] If it were only that simple. [/font]

[font=Arial, Helvetica] You just wonder why Bunting continues to endure (or welcome?) the punishment. With a 19-30 record in his four seasons, he has played roulette with his career. Bunting has been close to termination (if you believe the pundits). Now the former Tar Heels all-ACC linebacker says he's close to glory. [/font]

[font=Arial, Helvetica] "Our kids are toughened to the point where they don't get rattled," Bunting said. "Playing the types of opponents we play, they're not scared. I just think they're battle-hardened." [/font]

[font=Arial, Helvetica] The evidence suggests that Carolina is making a slow, deliberate turnaround. [/font]

[font=Arial, Helvetica] After a 5-19 patch in 2002 and 2003, Carolina rebounded in 2004 with a 6-6 bowl season that included a life-changing upset of the Hurricanes. Ninety minutes after the game, Bunting was surprised to find a fellow Class of '72 Tar Heel waiting to congratulate him -- Roy Williams. [/font]

[font=Arial, Helvetica] If Carolina can beat the Canes with a third-string tailback (the departed Chad Scott) and a porous defense, think what it can do this year. Bunting has arguably his best team with the return of 18 seniors and 10 defensive starters. All that group has to do is get past four 2004 bowl teams in the first five weeks. [/font]

[font=Arial, Helvetica] North Carolina (eight) and Georgia Tech (six) are at the top primarily because they face a combined 14 bowl teams. The programs are among a handful of the 119 I-A teams playing three teams with at least 10 wins from 2004. [/font]

[font=Arial, Helvetica] The symmetry is beautiful. North Carolina opens the season at Georgia Tech on Sept. 10. The winner and loser know the schedule will only get harder. [/font]



[font=Arial, Helvetica] Notes on the formula [/font]

[font=Arial, Helvetica] Each conference team started with a base number. That number was reached by determining the overall 2004 winning percentage of each conference (based on 2005 membership). In the ACC that number was .571. To that number was added the percentage of 2004 bowl teams multiplied by .75. Seventy-five percent of the ACC's seven bowl teams (including Boston College) is .4374. [/font]

[font=Arial, Helvetica] Added together the ACC's base number is 1.0088. [/font]

[font=Arial, Helvetica] Teams were then given credit for playing 2004 bowl teams in the non-conference (.0178 per team) and for each game overall against a 10-win team (.109). The thinking being that even though it is a new year, bowl teams, especially really good bowl teams, will have some carryover. [/font]

[font=Arial, Helvetica] Both Carolina and Georgia Tech were from the same conference. Each face three bowl teams in the non-conference and three 10-win teams from 2004. That's why their total is identical -- 1.3893. [/font]

[font=Arial, Helvetica] The Big East has the toughest schedule strength overall largely because six of its eight teams went to bowls last season. The league got a huge boost in schedule strength by inheriting Louisville and Cincinnati, two 2004 bowl teams from Conference USA. [/font]

[font=Arial, Helvetica] Seven of the top 12 teams in CBS SportsLine.com's strength of schedule rating are from that reconfigured Big East. That will be a big surprise to SEC (No. 2 in schedule strength) and Big 12 (No. 3) loyalists who annually argue about the strongest conference. [/font]

[font=Arial, Helvetica] What about defending champion USC? It is in the middle at No. 56 overall. Orange Bowl opponent Oklahoma is tied for the 36th-toughest schedule. Not that that necessarily indicates success. Last year USC ended the season No. 18 in NCAA schedule strength. Oklahoma was No. 11. [/font]

[font=Arial, Helvetica] In case you're wondering about the Big Three talent-producing states: Baylor (Texas), South Florida (Florida) and Stanford (California) have the toughest schedules in those states. [/font]

[font=Arial, Helvetica] <table border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr class="bg0"> <td colspan="4"> 2005 Strength of Schedule </td> </tr> <tr class="bg1"> <td> Rnk </td> <td> School </td> <td> Conf. </td> <td> Rating </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 1 </td> <td> North Carolina </td> <td> ACC </td> <td> 1.3893 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 1 </td> <td> Georgia Tech </td> <td> ACC </td> <td> 1.3893 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 3 </td> <td> West Virginia </td> <td> Big East </td> <td> 1.385 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 3 </td> <td> Rutgers </td> <td> Big East </td> <td> 1.385 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 5 </td> <td> Notre Dame </td> <td> Independent </td> <td> 1.380 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 6 </td> <td> Kentucky </td> <td> SEC </td> <td> 1.369 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 7 </td> <td> Syracuse </td> <td> Big East </td> <td> 1.320 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 8 </td> <td> South Florida </td> <td> Big East </td> <td> 1.293 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 9 </td> <td> Georgia </td> <td> SEC </td> <td> 1.287 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 10 </td> <td> Connecticut </td> <td> Big East </td> <td> 1.276 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 10 </td> <td> Pittsburgh </td> <td> Big East </td> <td> 1.276 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 12 </td> <td> Cincinnati </td> <td> Big East </td> <td> 1.258 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 13 </td> <td> Arizona </td> <td> Pac-10 </td> <td> 1.2718 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 13 </td> <td> Stanford </td> <td> Pac-10 </td> <td> 1.2718 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 15 </td> <td> South Carolina </td> <td> SEC </td> <td> 1.269 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 16 </td> <td> UCLA </td> <td> Pac-10 </td> <td> 1.262 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 17 </td> <td> Arkansas </td> <td> SEC </td> <td> 1.260 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 18 </td> <td> Duke </td> <td> ACC </td> <td> 1.235 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 19 </td> <td> Baylor </td> <td> Big 12 </td> <td> 1.229 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 20 </td> <td> Maryland </td> <td> ACC </td> <td> 1.226 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 21 </td> <td> Kansas </td> <td> Big 12 </td> <td> 1.2208 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 21 </td> <td> Oklahoma State </td> <td> Big 12 </td> <td> 1.2208 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 21 </td> <td> Texas A&M </td> <td> Big 12 </td> <td> 1.2208 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 24 </td> <td> Ohio State </td> <td> Big Ten </td> <td> 1.213 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 25 </td> <td> Texas Tech </td> <td> Big 12 </td> <td> 1.211 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 26 </td> <td> Illinois </td> <td> Big Ten </td> <td> 1.189 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 27 </td> <td> Florida </td> <td> SEC </td> <td> 1.178 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 28 </td> <td> Louisville </td> <td> Big East </td> <td> 1.030 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 29 </td> <td> LSU </td> <td> SEC </td> <td> 1.1697 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 30 </td> <td> Mississippi </td> <td> SEC </td> <td> 1.1697 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 31 </td> <td> Alabama </td> <td> SEC </td> <td> 1.1608 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 32 </td> <td> Kansas State </td> <td> Big 12 </td> <td> 1.1565 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 33 </td> <td> Missouri </td> <td> Big 12 </td> <td> 1.1565 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 34 </td> <td> Washington </td> <td> Pac-10 </td> <td> 1.153 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 35 </td> <td> Oregon </td> <td> Pac-10 </td> <td> 1.144 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 36 </td> <td> Colorado </td> <td> Big 12 </td> <td> 1.1386 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 36 </td> <td> Iowa State </td> <td> Big 12 </td> <td> 1.1386 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 36 </td> <td> Oklahoma </td> <td> Big 12 </td> <td> 1.1386 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 36 </td> <td> Texas </td> <td> Big 12 </td> <td> 1.1386 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 40 </td> <td> Washington State </td> <td> Pac-10 </td> <td> 1.136 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 41 </td> <td> Virginia </td> <td> ACC </td> <td> 1.1356 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 42 </td> <td> Miami (Fla) </td> <td> ACC </td> <td> 1.1356 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 43 </td> <td> Mississippi State </td> <td> SEC </td> <td> 1.134 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 43 </td> <td> Vanderbilt </td> <td> SEC </td> <td> 1.134 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 45 </td> <td> Nebraska </td> <td> Big 12 </td> <td> 1.129 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 46 </td> <td> NC State </td> <td> ACC </td> <td> 1.1178 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 46 </td> <td> Boston College </td> <td> ACC </td> <td> 1.1178 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 48 </td> <td> Temple </td> <td> Independent </td> <td> 1.101 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 49 </td> <td> Tennessee </td> <td> SEC </td> <td> 1.087 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 50 </td> <td> Penn State </td> <td> Big Ten </td> <td> 1.0861 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 50 </td> <td> Michigan </td> <td> Big Ten </td> <td> 1.0861 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 50 </td> <td> Northwestern </td> <td> Big Ten </td> <td> 1.0861 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 50 </td> <td> Purdue </td> <td> Big Ten </td> <td> 1.0861 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 54 </td> <td> Indiana </td> <td> Big Ten </td> <td> 1.0683 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 54 </td> <td> Wisconsin </td> <td> Big Ten </td> <td> 1.0683 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 56 </td> <td> Arizona State </td> <td> Pac-10 </td> <td> 1.0449 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 56 </td> <td> Southern Cal </td> <td> Pac-10 </td> <td> 1.0449 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 58 </td> <td> Florida State </td> <td> ACC </td> <td> 1.0445 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 59 </td> <td> Auburn </td> <td> SEC </td> <td> 1.042 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 60 </td> <td> Clemson </td> <td> ACC </td> <td> 1.0266 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 60 </td> <td> Virginia Tech </td> <td> ACC </td> <td> 1.0266 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 62 </td> <td> California </td> <td> Pac-10 </td> <td> 1.018 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 63 </td> <td> Hawaii </td> <td> WAC </td> <td> 1.011 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 64 </td> <td> Wake Forest </td> <td> ACC </td> <td> 1.008 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 65 </td> <td> Army </td> <td> Independent </td> <td> 1.004 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 66 </td> <td> Air Force </td> <td> Mountain West </td> <td> .9857 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 66 </td> <td> TCU </td> <td> Conf. USA </td> <td> .9857 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 68 </td> <td> Fresno State </td> <td> WAC </td> <td> .9851 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 68 </td> <td> Utah State </td> <td> WAC </td> <td> .9851 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 70 </td> <td> Ball State </td> <td> MAC </td> <td> .9778 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 71 </td> <td> Michigan State </td> <td> Big Ten </td> <td> .9771 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 72 </td> <td> Iowa </td> <td> Big Ten </td> <td> .968 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 73 </td> <td> Minnesota </td> <td> Big Ten </td> <td> .959 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 74 </td> <td> Oregon State </td> <td> Pac-10 </td> <td> .944 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 75 </td> <td> Rice </td> <td> Conf. USA </td> <td> .927 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 76 </td> <td> San Diego State </td> <td> Mountain West </td> <td> .912 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 77 </td> <td> New Mexico State </td> <td> WAC </td> <td> .902 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 78 </td> <td> Colorado State </td> <td> Mountain West </td> <td> .894 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 79 </td> <td> Boise State </td> <td> WAC </td> <td> .893 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 80 </td> <td> BYU </td> <td> Mountain West </td> <td> .8767 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 80 </td> <td> Wyoming </td> <td> Mountain West </td> <td> .8767 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 82 </td> <td> Louisiana Tech </td> <td> WAC </td> <td> .867 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 83 </td> <td> Navy </td> <td> Independent </td> <td> .866 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 84 </td> <td> New Mexico </td> <td> Mountain West </td> <td> .8589 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 84 </td> <td> UNLV </td> <td> Mountain West </td> <td> .8589 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 86 </td> <td> Bowling Green </td> <td> MAC </td> <td> .8511 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 86 </td> <td> Ohio </td> <td> MAC </td> <td> .8511 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 88 </td> <td> Idaho </td> <td> WAC </td> <td> .8494 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 88 </td> <td> Nevada </td> <td> WAC </td> <td> .8494 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 90 </td> <td> San Jose State </td> <td> WAC </td> <td> .840 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 91 </td> <td> Kent State </td> <td> MAC </td> <td> .8332 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 91 </td> <td> Miami (Ohio) </td> <td> MAC </td> <td> .8332 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 93 </td> <td> Tulsa </td> <td> Conf. USA </td> <td> .818 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 94 </td> <td> Marshall </td> <td> Conf. USA </td> <td> .7734 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 94 </td> <td> Memphis </td> <td> Conf. USA </td> <td> .7734 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 94 </td> <td> Tulane </td> <td> Conf. USA </td> <td> .7734 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 94 </td> <td> UAB </td> <td> Conf. USA </td> <td> .7734 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 98 </td> <td> Utah </td> <td> Mountain West </td> <td> .767 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 99 </td> <td> Louisiana-Lafayette </td> <td> Sun Belt </td> <td> .7536 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 100 </td> <td> Louisiana-Monroe </td> <td> Sun Belt </td> <td> .7535 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 101 </td> <td> Buffalo </td> <td> MAC </td> <td> .7421 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 102 </td> <td> Eastern Michigan </td> <td> MAC </td> <td> .7240 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 103 </td> <td> Western Michigan </td> <td> MAC </td> <td> .733 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 104 </td> <td> Akron </td> <td> MAC </td> <td> .7242 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 105 </td> <td> Northern Illinois </td> <td> MAC </td> <td> .7152 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 105 </td> <td> Toledo </td> <td> MAC </td> <td> .7152 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 107 </td> <td> Central Michigan </td> <td> MAC </td> <td> .706 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 108 </td> <td> East Carolina </td> <td> Conf. USA </td> <td> .6734 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 109 </td> <td> SMU </td> <td> Conf. USA </td> <td> .6734 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 109 </td> <td> UCF </td> <td> Conf. USA </td> <td> .6734 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 111 </td> <td> Southern Miss </td> <td> Conf. USA </td> <td> .6644 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 111 </td> <td> UTEP </td> <td> Conf. USA </td> <td> .6644 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 113 </td> <td> Florida Atlantic </td> <td> Sun Belt </td> <td> .6535 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 113 </td> <td> Middle Tennessee </td> <td> Sun Belt </td> <td> .6535 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 115 </td> <td> Houston </td> <td> Conf. USA </td> <td> .646 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 116 </td> <td> North Texas </td> <td> Sun Belt </td> <td> .6356 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 116 </td> <td> Troy </td> <td> Sun Belt </td> <td> .6356 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 118 </td> <td> Arkansas State </td> <td> Sun Belt </td> <td> .626 </td> </tr> <tr class="bg2"> <td> 119 </td> <td> Florida International </td> <td> Sun Belt </td> <td> .617</td></tr></tbody></table>[/font]
</td></tr></tbody> </table>
...
 
Reading some of his past articles, I think this guy is just going for the shock value.

West Virginia #3?
<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=evenrow><TD width=43>09/03</TD><TD width=170><NOBR>at Syracuse</NOBR></TD><TD width=125></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD width=43>09/10</TD><TD width=170><NOBR>Wofford</NOBR></TD><TD width=125></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD width=43>09/17</TD><TD width=170><NOBR>at Maryland</NOBR></TD><TD width=125></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD width=43>09/24</TD><TD width=170><NOBR>E Carolina</NOBR></TD><TD width=125></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD width=43>10/01</TD><TD width=170><NOBR>Va Tech</NOBR></TD><TD width=125></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD width=43>10/08</TD><TD width=170><NOBR>at Rutgers</NOBR></TD><TD width=125></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD width=43>10/15</TD><TD width=170><NOBR>Louisville</NOBR></TD><TD width=125></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD width=43>10/22</TD><TD width=170><NOBR>at S Florida</NOBR></TD><TD width=125></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD width=43>11/02</TD><TD width=170><NOBR>UConn</NOBR></TD><TD width=125></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD width=43>11/09</TD><TD width=170><NOBR>at Cincy</NOBR></TD><TD width=125></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD width=43>11/24</TD><TD width=170><NOBR>Pittsburgh</NOBR></TD><TD width=125></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
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osufootball727 said:
Reading some of his past articles, I think this guy is just going for the shock value.

West Virginia #3?
<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=evenrow><TD width=43>09/03</TD><TD width=170><NOBR>at Syracuse</NOBR></TD><TD width=125></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD width=43>09/10</TD><TD width=170><NOBR>Wofford</NOBR></TD><TD width=125></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD width=43>09/17</TD><TD width=170><NOBR>at Maryland</NOBR></TD><TD width=125></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD width=43>09/24</TD><TD width=170><NOBR>E Carolina</NOBR></TD><TD width=125></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD width=43>10/01</TD><TD width=170><NOBR>Va Tech</NOBR></TD><TD width=125></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD width=43>10/08</TD><TD width=170><NOBR>at Rutgers</NOBR></TD><TD width=125></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD width=43>10/15</TD><TD width=170><NOBR>Louisville</NOBR></TD><TD width=125></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD width=43>10/22</TD><TD width=170><NOBR>at S Florida</NOBR></TD><TD width=125></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD width=43>11/02</TD><TD width=170><NOBR>UConn</NOBR></TD><TD width=125></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD width=43>11/09</TD><TD width=170><NOBR>at Cincy</NOBR></TD><TD width=125></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD width=43>11/24</TD><TD width=170><NOBR>Pittsburgh</NOBR></TD><TD width=125></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Good catch. Holy shit...that has got to be the third toughest schedule in the nation. Look at all of those perennially ranked opponents.
 
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How in the fuck can you have the #3 SOS when you play a I-AA team? I decided to look up last season's record and final poll position for each team:

09/03 at Syracuse (6-6) (Unranked)
09/10 Wofford (I-AA) (Not even going to look at a I-AA team's record)
09/17 at Maryland (5-6) (Unranked)
09/24 E Carolina (2-9) (Unranked)
10/01 Va Tech (10-3) (#10/#10)
10/08 at Rutgers (4-7) (Unranked)
10/15 Louisville (11-1) (#6/#7)
10/22 at S Florida (4-7) (Unranked)
11/02 UConn (8-4) (Unranked) (MC bowl)
11/09 at Cincy (7-5) (Unranked) (FW bowl)
11/24 Pittsburgh (8-4) (#25/Unranked) (Fiesta bowl)

To their credit, they do play two teams that finished ranked in the top 10 in both polls, but only one other team was ranked (Pitt) and they were as barely ranked as a team can be (#25 in only one poll), and that's it. Not counting the I-AA team, they play four teams with losing records and one team with a .500 record. Granted, five teams played in bowls, but UConn and Cincy played in bottom-tiered bowls, and Pitt got blown out in the Fiesta Bowl.

No way this SOS is even top 20, let alone #3...
 
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One of these schedules is the 4th toughest schedule in the nation, the other is the 71st. Which one looks like the easier schedule to you?

2005 Schedule
DATE OPPONENT

09/03 at Illinois
09/10 Villanova
09/17 at Buffalo
09/30 Pittsburgh
10/08 W Virginia
10/15 at Syracuse
10/22 at UConn
10/29 Navy
11/05 S Florida
11/11 at Louisville
11/26 Cincy



09/03 Kent St
09/10 Hawaii
09/17 at N Dame
09/24 at Illinois
10/01 Michigan
10/15 at Ohio St
10/22 N'western
10/29 Indiana
11/05 at Purdue
11/12 at Minnesota
11/19 Penn State
 
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Without looking it up, I'd say the first one is Rutgers and the second is Michigan State. This guy (Dodd) hasn't come up with any decent insight yet into college football, so why should this article be any different?
 
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This kind of crap is so frustrating and this one in particular is a joke. The core of any schedule is in-conference play. How can the Big East have the toughtest schedule in football?

The only preseason ranking I was able to find in a quick search was from Fox Sports. They have:

Iowa #3
OSU #4
Michigan #13
Purdue #14
Minnesota #19

Louisville at #24 is the ONLY Big East team in the top 25.

Perhaps CBS has some other ideas on national polls, but this is pure fantasy.

Zero credibility, yet this gets published.
 
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His formula makes no sense. First of all, you can't rate a 2005 schedule on 2004 results. According to that methodology, Ohio State is the same strength as Memphis - both finished 8-4 and made a bowl game. Who would you rather play this year? Nuff said.
 
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I have to hit this one more time because the absurdity of this formula is so overwhelming.

Each conference team started with a base number. That number was reached by determining the overall 2004 winning percentage of each conference

Since, by definition, the net record of any conference within its own conference is .500, this factor is based purely on non-conference play. Therefore the first thing you need to have a high strength of schedule (this year) is a weak strength of schedule (last year).

The Big East has the toughest schedule strength overall largely because six of its eight teams went to bowls last season.

Motor City Bowl = Orange Bowl unde this forumla. The Big East is riding high because there are now enough bowls that the top several teams from EVERY conference go to bowl games regardless of the strength of that Conference. Since they inherited two top teams from CUSA they got this benefit twice.

The only factor in this formula that has any relevance at all is the number of teams you play with 10 or more wins. That does not appear to be a major factor.
 
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that article is quite possibly the biggest pile of 'journalistic' horseshit that i have ever had the displeasure to lay my eyes on... what king of drugs is this moron taking????


i want my 10 minutes back!
 
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Flawed Premise = Flawed Conclusions

When the premise is flawed, the conclusion will be incorrect.

Dodd has more than one failure in this regard.

Dodd's formula places no weighting for D-1A vs D-1AA opponents in OOC play. Flawed premise = Flawed Conclusion

Dodd's formula tries to shoe-horn data from Old Big East into New Big East, which new Big East brings into play several new entrants. Long-term head-to-head data is non-existent. Flawed data = Flawed Premise = Flawed Conclusion.

Dodd's treatment of bowl wins, as he describes it, does not weight lower bowls as less tough than the Dec 31 --- Jan 4 bowl games. That simply defies logic, common sense, reasoning and is another Flawed Premise, hence a Flawed Conclusion.

Any data analyst worth their salt would have dismissed this model once they saw the high ratings for the Big East -- because it runs so totally counter to on-field performance. The lesson here is that the data treatment model is Flawed, not that there is "surprising" or revelationary analysis.

Flawed Premise(s) = Flawed Conclusion(s)
 
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I would like to congratulate Dennis Dodd on this article, which has leveraged him to being the first reporter not named Tom Friend to be awarded with my prestigious "Tom Friend Award."

tomfriendaward.gif
 
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Since, by definition, the net record of any conference within its own conference is .500, this factor is based purely on non-conference play. Therefore the first thing you need to have a high strength of schedule (this year) is a weak strength of schedule (last year).

And FWIW... of the Schools who are currently in the Big East.... Only Louiville, Cincinnati and Syracuse did NOT play at least one I-AA school... and Syracuse played Buffalo (not knocking them too much, it makes sense geographically)....

Oh... and since we get to do somethign neat like compare schools that have changed conferences... and the Big East is benefitting in this formula from non conference wins.... it appears that Loiusville 9who beat an SEC school and an ACC school) is about the only team in this conference to do any non-conference heavy lifting... (outside of Pitt beating ND).... everybody plays Army it seems like... AND... Temple... for the purpose of this excercise, is proabably a non-confernece win in this formula for them last year.
 
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