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Can Clemson Beat Us? (formerly Can we beat Clemson?)

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I feel like their 2013 team was more talented. And we won't have an abomination of a defensive scheme this time around. They do get after the QB, which isn't great for our o-line.

I also think such a young team will benefit tremendously from bowl practices.
 
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Clemp isn't as strong defensively as they've been in the past..losing a shaq lawson will do that. their propensity to Clemp all over themselves is higher than previous yrs

13th in overall defensive efficiency (Bama 1, Wiscy 2, tOSU 3, scUM 4, WSH 7, CU 8, PSU 21)
7th in air yd defense (Bama 1, scUM 2, Wiscy 3, tOSU 4) *good thing tOSU can't throw the ball harumph*
12th in TD rate against (Bama 1, Wiscy 2, tOSU 4, scUM 5, CU 8, WSH 10, PSU 20)
39th in TO rate (Wiscy 4, CU 5, tOSU 15, WSH 29, Bama 34, PSU 56, scUM 95)
22nd in opp-adjusted line yds allowed (DL metric=avg rush yds per play allowed vs RBs only--Bama 1, tOSU 2, scUM 4, PSU 15, Wiscy 35, WSH 26, CU 91)--this will go up substantially including QBs but i don't have those #s handy
40th in stuff rate (rate at which RB carries do not exceed LOS--tOSU 1, scUM 4, Bama 13, PSU 20, Wiscy 34, WSH 98, CU 128 dead last gulp)--kind of a meh stat but somewhat informative
4th in adj-Sack rate (scUM 1, WSH 5, Bama 7, PSU 29, Wiscy 39, CU 43, tOSU 92) and 6th in passing down sack rate (scum 2, WSH 5, Bama 9, PSU 19, Wiscy 22, CU67, tOSU 75)

and like 10 other metrics basically tell the same story: marginal against the run and elite against the pass.

their sack rate numbers are very concerning for OSU's OL.

offensively:

7th in adj-line yds--45th on std downs & 19th on passing downs
98th power runs (runs on 3rd or 4th down w/ 2yds or less to go that achieved a 1st down or TD)
35th in stuff rate
4th in adj-sack rate--29th on std down & 3rd on passing downs

(and i'm tired of typing now so getting lazy)
middling rush offense with top-10 pass offense
15th in pace
overall 1st in Success Rate ("A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.")

so bucks would have their work cut out defensively. their advantage is clearly rush offense vs Clemp's rush D, but if their offensive woes continue they could realistically get steamrolled if the secondary has a rough night.
 
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Clemson was held to 19 points at Auburn (13 points in three quarters) and 24 points at home by 6-6 South Carolina (10 points in the first half). They also gave up 36 points at home to Louisville, 34 points at FSU, and 43 points at home to Pitt. Our defense is as good as any defense they've faced, and I can see us scoring 30+ points against their defense.
 
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Dryden said:
What the hell, I'll bite.

OSU has some obvious warts, but I don't believe they're unfixable between now and Dec 31 with a month of bowl practices. An opportunistic offense and a stingy defense that forces opponents into a lot of turnovers is a recipe that has stood the test of time for decades, and that is exactly what OSU has this year.

OSU will be the underdog in the semi-final and would likely be a heavy underdog to Bama in the final should they reach that game, and that is exactly where Urban Meyer is at his most dangerous.
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I think it's possible tOSU ends up as #4 if Bama, Clemson and Washington all win. They all will have added a conference title win to their seasons, and it would set up tOSU-Bama in a semifinal. It also would guarantee there won't be a Clemson-Washington title game, which no one wants.
 
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Jake said:
I think it's possible tOSU ends up as #4 if Bama, Clemson and Washington all win. They all will have added a conference title win to their seasons, and it would set up tOSU-Bama in a semifinal. It also would guarantee there won't be a Clemson-Washington title game, which no one wants.
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I think the CFP will take the chance that both OSU and Bama won't lose the first game and keep them apart to set up the potential NC game that everyone wants to see.
 
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i know i made a case for CLEM but i think MICH would beat them, so OSU will still be favored, probably by a FG or so.

after the committee said the difference between 4 & 5 was so tight i don't think WSH can jump OSU. the resumés aren't anywhere close to comparable: OSU has 3 wins over current top-10 teams, 2 of which on the road and one was a blowout; WSH currently has zero and would only have 1 if they beat CU (who lost to scUM, who lost to OSU). they've now said on multiple occasions their priority is to get the best 4 teams, and if the teams are close that's when they go to the conference championships, SOS, h2h etc. (OU winning handily could potentially help tOSU if things get that granular, but i don't think they will). as of right now, in their eyes, OSU is miles ahead of WSH on the field and that likely doesn't change even in the event of a total blowout of CU (something i see pretty unlikely sans injuries or a complete STs meltdown..like 2+ scores meltdown).

CLEM could jump OSU but that wouldn't matter obv. if they lose to VaTech, then things get really nasty, and really really nasty if both WSH and CLEM lose. at that point OSU is still in, but it then comes down to the B1G champ (root for Wiscy), MICH and CU. imo they should take the B1G champ Wiscy and CU in that scenario, even though they both lost to MICH. CU without their QB for 4 gms or whatever and having lead outright as 18pt dogs @ scUM in the 3Q til he goes down, same with @ USC where they missed 3 FGs and could have won that game, means something to me, and i think they would still give scUM a good run if they were to play it again with Liufau there. but i kinda doubt they look that deeply into it, idk.

worse case for the committee is if PSU wins and both CLEM and WSH lose. they then have to decide whether to take a team that got beat by 40 by MICH, or by 17 by MICH, or MICH themselves with 2 losses and a 3rd place finish in their division over 2 teams with 1 more win and a P5 conference championship, and now you have 3 B1G teams in? i think they could have partially avoided this had they correctly ranked CU at 7 over PSU, butnahhh.
 
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Jaxbuck said:
I think the CFP will take the chance that both OSU and Bama won't lose the first game and keep them apart to set up the potential NC game that everyone wants to see.
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I'd like that, but I also think the 2 teams behind us will get more consideration if they win this weekend. I think we're "in" regardless but I wouldn't be shocked if we don't stay at #2 by not playing this weekend. Frankly, being 2 or 3 is the same thing other than picking which jersey to wear, but I'd prefer to not be #4.
 
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Jake said:
I'd like that, but I also think the 2 teams behind us will get more consideration if they win this weekend. I think we're "in" regardless but I wouldn't be shocked if we don't stay at #2 by not playing this weekend. Frankly, being 2 or 3 is the same thing other than picking which jersey to wear, but I'd prefer to not be #4.
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We're pretty much a lock at #2 unless both Clemson and Washington win by 60+ points...
 
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Anti-Delusional said:
I would argue that we are no different. If we were dominate we would be playing Wisconsin Saturday. That's why I think the 2 vs 3 matchup is going to be an awesome game.
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IMPORTANT NOTICE: I would like to formally request that, beginning now, no one on this board type "dominate" when they mean "dominant", or type "loose" when they mean "lose".

edit: I would also like to request that people avoid matching plural pronouns with singular subjects.
 
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