Since Kelly is a hot name for some soon-to-be-vacant coaching jobs, I thought that I'd bump this thread.
Here are the before and after records of the last four hot shot Big East coaches to take the step up to big boy conferences:
John L. Smith
41 - 21 (.661) in 5 years at Louisville
22 - 26 (.458) in 4 years at Michigan State
Bobby Petrino
41 - 9 (.820) in 4 years at Louisville
11 - 11 (.500) in 1+ years at Arkansas
Rich Rodriguez
60 - 26 (.698) in 7 years at West Virginia
8 - 15 (.348) in 1+ years at Michigan
Mark Dantonio
18 - 17 (.514) in 3 years at Cincinnati
22 - 15 (.595) in 2+ years at Michigan State
So, of the four coaches who went from Big East to Big Ten or SEC schools, only Dantonio has had more success after the move, and the other three had significantly less success.
One word about Dantonio's performance ... in the years between the retirement of CFB Hall of Famer Sid Gillman in 1954 and the hiring of Mark Dantonio in 2004, the eleven head coaches for the University of Cincinnati football team had a combined record of 225-291-12 (.438), so Dantonio's was far better (nearly 20% better) than the Bearcats' average over the previous five decades. In addition, Brian Kelly has put together three straight 10-win seasons largely with Dantonio's players. Those two facts support the argument that Dantonio's level of success at Cincinnati was not adequately reflected in his overall record, and they should be kept in mind when comparing Dantonio's apparently greater success at Michigan State (.595 winning percentage) than at Cincinnati (.514 winning percentage). In other words, I feel that Dantonio is currently doing about the same at Michigan State than he did at Cincinnati, even though his records at both schools suggest that he has been even more successful since taking a step up in conference difficulty.