Big Ten and other Conference Expansion

[kn1f3party]

The thing that's striking to me is that for months, everybody has talked about expansion as if it's completely linear - If Team A leaves, then Team B will go here and Team C will have no choice but to go there.

Having seen what happens as the dominoes actually fall, it's not quite working out that way. It's as if every time one of the actors makes a real decision, the whole thing gets reset. I'm not sure we can really look three steps ahead in this process anymore. I think we have to look at it as a matter of which party is going to make a decision next, and what possibilities are on the table if if that party is indeed the next one to act.

In the end, that very thing may be what dooms the Pac-16 expansion scenario. Every time somebody acts, somebody involved in that plan seems to reassess the situation.

Great point. If A&M moves you have a few scenarios I think are reasonable to estimate:

A&M goes to SEC by itself: Texas could be enticed to Big Ten, more likely seems 4-5 Big XII members go to Pac-10.

A&M goes to SEC, so does Oklahoma: Texas more than likely is looking at the Big Ten at this point over Pac-10.

A&M / Texas decide best option is to go to Big Ten together. No way they both go to SEC or Pac-10.

 

[AuTX Buckeye]

I'm beginning to think that Chip is just making it up as he goes. He doesn't see to know how many team are even in the conference and who is talking to whom.

I think High Lonesome said it earlier, Chip is an old newpaper guy with real sources, unfortunately he works for someone who has seemingly gotten under UT's (Mack's or Dodd's) skin as far as recruiting and sources. So its highly possible Chip's getting bad or misleading info to make his employer look bad.

 

[Piney]

Chip just posted this via Twitter:



I would find it rather amusing if, in the end, Texas went nowhere. Colorado and Nebraska were getting all sorts of grief for bailing but they're starting to look like geniuses.

I just love how Chip is basically reporting the rumor du jour and then has to change it daily. So I would not be surprised if later today Chip tweets that he was wrong again and some other rumor pops up.

All this expansion rumors are just crazy and why the heck am I still hooked on this all?

 

[jlb1705]

Also, I want to add that I don't believe for a second that Texas intends to hang around in a rump Big XII. More than anything, it seems like another attempt to pin blame for the conference's disintegration on another party - this time aTm.

If it somehow turned out to be true though, I'd be happy if the conference expansion carousel stopped here, at least momentarily. In my view, the Big Ten would be the only ones who truly enriched themselves at that point.

 

[Bobby Hoying]

Even if Texas stays in the Big 12, the carousel won't stop...

1. Who becomes the Pac Ten's 12th team? I doubt they'll stop at 11.

2. What if A&M really does go to the SEC, who else does the SEC add?

3. What if the Big Ten goes to 14 teams with ND?

 

[jlb1705]

Even if Texas stays in the Big 12, the carousel won't stop...

1. Who becomes the Pac Ten's 12th team? I doubt they'll stop at 11.

2. What if A&M really does go to the SEC, who else does the SEC add?

3. What if the Big Ten goes to 14 teams with ND?

1. Utah. Whatever the MWC does to compensate for that is of little consequence.

2. If Texas is still in a rump Big XII, it's because aTm will have been strongarmed into sticking around too - therefore the SEC would not adding them or another team to get to an even number.

3. If none of those other moves are being made, I think the Big Ten is truly back to its 12-18 month timetable to work on anything else.

 

[Colvinnl]

My question is how in the world can the former Big 12 garner the tv contract that the commissioner says he is seeking to entice Texas to stay without Nebraska and with 10 teams??

 

[BigJim]

The thing that's striking to me is that for months, everybody has talked about expansion as if it's completely linear - If Team A leaves, then Team B will go here and Team C will have no choice but to go there.

Having seen what happens as the dominoes actually fall, it's not quite working out that way. It's as if every time one of the actors makes a real decision, the whole thing gets reset. I'm not sure we can really look three steps ahead in this process anymore. I think we have to look at it as a matter of which party is going to make a decision next, and what possibilities are on the table if if that party is indeed the next one to act.

In the end, that very thing may be what dooms the Pac-16 expansion scenario. Every time somebody acts, somebody involved in that plan seems to reassess the situation.

What dominoes were talked about that would follow Nebraska to the B10 and/or Colorado to the P10?

 

[jlb1705]

I think they can get a better deal than the one that's expiring. It was that lousy. They would also be dividing it among fewer schools. The projections do seem very rosy to me though.

 

[CookyPuss]

The thing that's striking to me is that for months, everybody has talked about expansion as if it's completely linear - If Team A leaves, then Team B will go here and Team C will have no choice but to go there.

Having seen what happens as the dominoes actually fall, it's not quite working out that way. It's as if every time one of the actors makes a real decision, the whole thing gets reset. I'm not sure we can really look three steps ahead in this process anymore. I think we have to look at it as a matter of which party is going to make a decision next, and what possibilities are on the table if if that party is indeed the next one to act.

In the end, that very thing may be what dooms the Pac-16 expansion scenario. Every time somebody acts, somebody involved in that plan seems to reassess the situation.

I would love to see an expert in game theory lay out the equations for all of this. Maybe the math consultants from Numb3rs could do it since they probably have some spare time with the show's cancellation.

 

[Cincinnatibuck]

Thought they just said a 10 team Big 12 would work.

Sources: Texas' Pac-10 commitment imminent - ESPN

 

[Buckeyeskickbuttocks]

ESPN has been "behind" this story all along. They seem to know as much about realignment as they do about recruiting.

 

[Buckeye86]

Thought they just said a 10 team Big 12 would work.

Sources: Texas' Pac-10 commitment imminent - ESPN

I wonder who that source is

 

[jlb1705]

ESPN has been "behind" this story all along. They seem to know as much about realignment as they do about recruiting.

They've also been taking most of their information from Chip Brown, but it looks like they're even behind on him now. Once they shovel more coal into the Twitter machine they'll be back on top of being behind the curve.

 

[CookyPuss]

Thought they just said a 10 team Big 12 would work.

Sources: Texas' Pac-10 commitment imminent - ESPN

Cowherd just reported Utah will be 16 instead of A&M.