Don't take it on my account...i'm biased. I forgot about the home field thing, so that almost wants me to lay off it now.
I haven't seen Wright State play except for a little bit of their game against Arizona. I'm not that sold on how good Arizona is this year though, but Wright State looked average. Wright State has looked average all year. They just edged out a win against Northeastern, I think that was who it was. Miami has definitely played some good opposition so far. Butler, Xavier, Purdue, and they beat Ball State, a team that Wright State lost too. Two things worry me about the game. 1, for some reason the home team always wins in this little rivalry. And 2, Miami relies on the 3-point basket A LOT. So if that's not going in for them, anybody could beat them. Part of me wonders if the reason Miami is getting 2 points is because this is a trap game. Like Atlanta getting 1.5 points against Tampa Bay last week in the NFL was.
I'd almost feel more comfortable taking Pepperdine over UNLV and giving up 2 points. I have no clue why Pepperdine is only getting 2 there. I'd think they'd take UNLV at home pretty easily. I'm trying to figure out the catch on that game, and I can't find it. But the catch on the Miami-Wright State game is definite the home trend and the 3-point shot.
Other games? I like Indiana (-2) over Notre Dame. Indiana seems to always own Notre Dame. Indiana played UNC well, and I think UNC is one of the best teams this year. I can't remember the last time Notre Dame beat Indiana.
I also like Morehead State (+30) over Kentucky, but that's just because I don't think UK is going to be beating many teams by more than 30 points this year...they are good, but I don't think they have the type of team that's going to put up 90 points a lot. I don't know how UK's loss against UNC is going to effect them. They could either take out a lot of aggression against Morehead, or come out pretty flat. I'm leaning on coming out flat...but of the games I'd even consider, I like this one the least.
I'd have to say right now my favorite game is Pepperdine.
Well good luck with the games. If you are looking to just place money on one game...go with Pepperdine. But if you want to go with 3 games, I don't think the Miami or Indiana bets are to shabby either.
Goodnight