The SEC did appear to be the deepest conference this year. But was it really that much better than the Big 10? The Capital One Bowl and Outback Bowl don't support that conclusion.
As you know, those bowls have matched up Big 10-SEC teams for years now. After BCS teams are taken, the top two choices from each conference goes to these bowls each year. This means that in years when the BCS takes two teams from one of these conferences and only one team from the other conference, that the conference that gets 2 teams into the BCS is at a disadvantage in these bowls. They are matching their 3rd and 4th teams against the other conferences 2nd and 3rd.
Taking this into consideration, let's look at each conference's performance in the BCS and in the Cap One and Outback bowls for each year that the BCS has been in operation.
Year......BCS...............Cap One/Outback.....Advantage
1999......Both 2-0..........Big 10: 2-0.........Big 10
2000......Big 10: 2-0.......Split...............Big 10
..........SEC: 0-2....................................
2001......Both 0-1..........Split...............Push
2002......SEC: 2-0..........SEC: 2-0...........SEC (ouch)
..........Big 10: 0-1.................................
2003......Big 10: 1-1.......Split...............Big 10
..........SEC: 1-0....................................
2004......Big 10: 1-1.......Split...............Big 10
..........SEC: 1-0....................................
2005......Big 10: 0-1.......Split...............SEC
..........SEC: 1-0....................................
2006......Big 10: 2-0.......Split...............Big 10
..........SEC: 0-1....................................
2007......Big 10: ?-1.......Big 10: 2-0.........??????
..........SEC: ?-?...................................
BreakdownIn 2000, the teams split the Florida bowls but the Big-10 was 2-0 in the BCS and the SEC was 0-2, with one of the losses being head-to-head against the Big 10. Clear advantage to the Big 10 there.
In 2002, the SEC was at a disadvantage by placing more teams in the BCS; and they still swept the Big 10 in the Florida bowls. They also were 2-0 in the BCS while the Big 10 was 0-1, with the loss coming against an SEC team. That is a big year for the SEC. Kudos.
In 2003, 2004 and 2006, the Big 10 was at a disadvantage by placing more teams in the BCS; and they managed a split in the Florida Bowls for each of those years. Each conference won 1 BCS game in '03 and '04, so I'm giving the Big 10 the edge for those years. In '06, the Big 10 was 2-0 while the SEC was 0-1. Clear advantage to the slow northerners.
So when comparing performance in January Bowl Games, the Big 10 has the advantage in the BCS era 5-2-1. Also, since the inception of the BCS the Big-10 is 10-8 in the Florida Bowls vs. the SEC in spite of having the "2-1 BCS teams" disadvantage 3 times to the SEC's once.
Currently, each conference has one National Championship in the BCS era. This metric will change in 6 days. Stay tuned.