There are 33 choices, every combination possible for each of the top4 teams in each division, and then 1 choice for 'none of the above', in case Illinois, Indiana, NW'ern, or Minnesota somehow reach the CCG.
I determined these odds by estimating the chances of each team winning all of the games for the top4 teams in each division, applying the tiebreakers, and then estimating the odds for each of the 32 possible matchups that could result.
Here are the current scenarios:
Leaders:
Team......Conf..Div-Wins...........Div-Losses.....Div-Remng..........Cross-Remng
PSU.......5-0...Ind,Purd,Ill.......----...........@tOSU, @Wisc..........Neb
tOSU......2-2...Ill,Wisc...........----...........Ind,@Purd,PSU.........@TSUN
Wisc......2-2...Ind................tOSU...........Purd,@Ill,PS U........@Minn
Purd......2-2...Ill................PSU............@Wisc,tOSU,@ Ind......Iowa
Conference record in all games is the first thing. B1G Tiebreakers first go to head-to-head, so 2-ways are easy, and 3-ways are easy if 1 team beat both of the others. But the 3-way tie where they each beat each other goes to the team with the fewest losses within the division. After that, it gets weird and complicated.
If PSU wins at least 2 of their last 3 games, they're either 7-1 or 8-0 and in the CCG.
If tOSU wins out, the Buckeyes need PSU to also lose either against Nebraska or at Wisconsin. The Buckeyes would be 5-0 in the division and own all of the tiebreakers against everybody.
For Wiscy to win the division, they need to win out AND have tOSU lose another game, AND have PSU lose another game besides the PSU-Wiscy game; since at 6-2 the only tie-breaker they can win is the head-to-head with Penn State being the only other 6-2 team.
Legends:
Team......Conf..Div-Wins...........Div-Losses.....Div-Remng..........Cross-Remng
MSU.......3-1...TSUN...............NEB............Minn,@Ia,@NW .......Ind
Neb.......3-1...Minn,MSU...........----...........NW,@TSUN,IA.........@PSU
TSUN......3-1...Minn,NW............MSU............@Iowa,Neb... .......@Ill,tOSU
Iowa......2-2...NW.................Minn...........TSUN,MSU,@Ne b......@Purd
Conference record in all games is the first thing. B1G Tiebreakers first go to head-to-head, so 2-ways are easy, and 3-ways are easy if 1 team beat both of the others. But the 3-way tie where they each beat each other goes to the team with the fewest losses within the division. After that, it gets weird and complicated.
If TSUN loses to Nebraska, TSUN is almost dead since they'd have 2 losses and lose virtually all of the tiebreakers to either MSU or Neb.
If TSUN beats Nebraska, the possibility of the complicated 3-way tie comes into play. As JXC said, if Sparty's second loss is to either Minn/Iowa/NW, they'd have 2 losses within the division and they'd lose that 3-way tie since Nebraska would only have 1 divisional loss (If TSUN's second loss is to Iowa), and they'd lose the 3-way tie to TSUN if TSUN beats Nebraska and their second loss is to tOSU or Illinois.
I determined these odds by estimating the chances of each team winning all of the games for the top4 teams in each division, applying the tiebreakers, and then estimating the odds for each of the 32 possible matchups that could result.
Here are the current scenarios:
Leaders:
Team......Conf..Div-Wins...........Div-Losses.....Div-Remng..........Cross-Remng
PSU.......5-0...Ind,Purd,Ill.......----...........@tOSU, @Wisc..........Neb
tOSU......2-2...Ill,Wisc...........----...........Ind,@Purd,PSU.........@TSUN
Wisc......2-2...Ind................tOSU...........Purd,@Ill,PS U........@Minn
Purd......2-2...Ill................PSU............@Wisc,tOSU,@ Ind......Iowa
Conference record in all games is the first thing. B1G Tiebreakers first go to head-to-head, so 2-ways are easy, and 3-ways are easy if 1 team beat both of the others. But the 3-way tie where they each beat each other goes to the team with the fewest losses within the division. After that, it gets weird and complicated.
If PSU wins at least 2 of their last 3 games, they're either 7-1 or 8-0 and in the CCG.
If tOSU wins out, the Buckeyes need PSU to also lose either against Nebraska or at Wisconsin. The Buckeyes would be 5-0 in the division and own all of the tiebreakers against everybody.
For Wiscy to win the division, they need to win out AND have tOSU lose another game, AND have PSU lose another game besides the PSU-Wiscy game; since at 6-2 the only tie-breaker they can win is the head-to-head with Penn State being the only other 6-2 team.
Legends:
Team......Conf..Div-Wins...........Div-Losses.....Div-Remng..........Cross-Remng
MSU.......3-1...TSUN...............NEB............Minn,@Ia,@NW .......Ind
Neb.......3-1...Minn,MSU...........----...........NW,@TSUN,IA.........@PSU
TSUN......3-1...Minn,NW............MSU............@Iowa,Neb... .......@Ill,tOSU
Iowa......2-2...NW.................Minn...........TSUN,MSU,@Ne b......@Purd
Conference record in all games is the first thing. B1G Tiebreakers first go to head-to-head, so 2-ways are easy, and 3-ways are easy if 1 team beat both of the others. But the 3-way tie where they each beat each other goes to the team with the fewest losses within the division. After that, it gets weird and complicated.
If TSUN loses to Nebraska, TSUN is almost dead since they'd have 2 losses and lose virtually all of the tiebreakers to either MSU or Neb.
If TSUN beats Nebraska, the possibility of the complicated 3-way tie comes into play. As JXC said, if Sparty's second loss is to either Minn/Iowa/NW, they'd have 2 losses within the division and they'd lose that 3-way tie since Nebraska would only have 1 divisional loss (If TSUN's second loss is to Iowa), and they'd lose the 3-way tie to TSUN if TSUN beats Nebraska and their second loss is to tOSU or Illinois.
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:p
