OK, this may be a little long but here is my .02 on this thing. It's all about match ups. IU looks good on paper but here is why I think this isn't quite as close as some may think. This is based on structure that can be seen from statistical analysis and viewing games, not some sweeping generalization or being biased by the name "Indiana" in football.
So how does each team win and how does that match what the other team does?
IU Offense: IU needs long, mistake-free drives. OSU is built to make those extremely low probability to near impossible to do consistently.
Indiana wants 10–12 play drives built on:
-short throws
-easy runs
-manageable 2nd-and-6
-no negative plays
Ohio State’s defense is elite at forcing you off schedule. They take away the easy stuff, push you into 3rd-and-long, and force you to execute difficult throws. Indiana isn’t built to convert a lot of 3rd-and-7s. Eventually, drives die.
This isn’t about blitzing or chaos — OSU just wins the efficiency battle every snap.
IU Defense is built to stop huge plays (explosives). OSU offense kills you with efficiency.
Indiana’s defense is constructed to avoid deep bombs. That works on most opponents but Ohio State doesn’t need 60-yard touchdowns to be explosive.
Their receivers win one-on-one matchups so often that simple plays turn into 20–30 yard gains.
These “intermediate explosives” are exactly the weak spot in Indiana’s defensive structure.
So Indiana’s biggest defensive strength does not actually apply in this matchup.
OSU offense is designed to win every play by a small margin and those margins accumulate.
Ohio State doesn’t try to run 80 plays or score in two snaps. They’re perfectly happy running a modest tempo because they know:
-every OSU play is slightly in their favor
-every Indiana play is slightly against them
-running fewer plays is risk management. It reduces variance.
-reduce variance and the emphasis is on skill and talent.
Over the course of 60–70 plays, a 5% advantage per snap becomes a 17–24 point gap.
This is what we were talking about in another thread-efficiency and fewer plays.
Day is not hunting fireworks — he's suffocating you.
So then I look at what makes IU successful: Special teams and turnovers.
IU scores a lot this year on:
-blocked kicks
-strip sacks
-tipped-ball INTs
-short fields
These come from opponents putting the ball in harm’s way. OSU does not:
-force dangerous throws
-call plays that take forever to develop
-expose the QB to blindside hits
-play tempo that creates chaotic situations
Ohio State’s risk profile is extremely low. They do not give away cheap points. Indiana’s best “equalizers” simply aren’t available.
Another "style" problem for IU: once they get behind, their style collapses.
If the game stays tight, Indiana can hang around for a quarter or two. But once Indiana trails by 10+:
-they can’t lean on long drives anymore
-OSU’s pass rush becomes the dominant force
-the QB has to throw into OSU’s zone windows
-mistakes start happening
-field position swings heavily toward OSU
This is where the game typically breaks open. Nothing dramatic — just OSU slowly squeezing them until the scoreboard reflects the talent and matchup gap.
TLDR version:
Indiana needs to win a lot of plays in a row. Ohio State only needs to win a few plays by a lot. OSU’s roster, scheme, and style are built to, essentially, guarantee that Indiana can’t string those long, perfect drives together.
Meanwhile, OSU’s receivers create easy 20-yard gains that Indiana’s defense is not equipped to stop. Over time, OSU’s small advantages on every snap stack up, and Indiana eventually gets squeezed out of the game.
The "shape" of the game is most likely:
-OSU controls efficiency, tempo and field position.
-IU can't produce enough explosives to keep up
-The score is comfortable by mid 3rd quarter but never gets into full on blowout range.
Most likely score: OSU 31-IU 14
That said, there is obviously a way for IU to win, if OSU turns it over 2+ times and IU gets a ST score and this could get into upset range.
So how does each team win and how does that match what the other team does?
IU Offense: IU needs long, mistake-free drives. OSU is built to make those extremely low probability to near impossible to do consistently.
Indiana wants 10–12 play drives built on:
-short throws
-easy runs
-manageable 2nd-and-6
-no negative plays
Ohio State’s defense is elite at forcing you off schedule. They take away the easy stuff, push you into 3rd-and-long, and force you to execute difficult throws. Indiana isn’t built to convert a lot of 3rd-and-7s. Eventually, drives die.
This isn’t about blitzing or chaos — OSU just wins the efficiency battle every snap.
IU Defense is built to stop huge plays (explosives). OSU offense kills you with efficiency.
Indiana’s defense is constructed to avoid deep bombs. That works on most opponents but Ohio State doesn’t need 60-yard touchdowns to be explosive.
Their receivers win one-on-one matchups so often that simple plays turn into 20–30 yard gains.
These “intermediate explosives” are exactly the weak spot in Indiana’s defensive structure.
So Indiana’s biggest defensive strength does not actually apply in this matchup.
OSU offense is designed to win every play by a small margin and those margins accumulate.
Ohio State doesn’t try to run 80 plays or score in two snaps. They’re perfectly happy running a modest tempo because they know:
-every OSU play is slightly in their favor
-every Indiana play is slightly against them
-running fewer plays is risk management. It reduces variance.
-reduce variance and the emphasis is on skill and talent.
Over the course of 60–70 plays, a 5% advantage per snap becomes a 17–24 point gap.
This is what we were talking about in another thread-efficiency and fewer plays.
Day is not hunting fireworks — he's suffocating you.
So then I look at what makes IU successful: Special teams and turnovers.
IU scores a lot this year on:
-blocked kicks
-strip sacks
-tipped-ball INTs
-short fields
These come from opponents putting the ball in harm’s way. OSU does not:
-force dangerous throws
-call plays that take forever to develop
-expose the QB to blindside hits
-play tempo that creates chaotic situations
Ohio State’s risk profile is extremely low. They do not give away cheap points. Indiana’s best “equalizers” simply aren’t available.
Another "style" problem for IU: once they get behind, their style collapses.
If the game stays tight, Indiana can hang around for a quarter or two. But once Indiana trails by 10+:
-they can’t lean on long drives anymore
-OSU’s pass rush becomes the dominant force
-the QB has to throw into OSU’s zone windows
-mistakes start happening
-field position swings heavily toward OSU
This is where the game typically breaks open. Nothing dramatic — just OSU slowly squeezing them until the scoreboard reflects the talent and matchup gap.
TLDR version:
Indiana needs to win a lot of plays in a row. Ohio State only needs to win a few plays by a lot. OSU’s roster, scheme, and style are built to, essentially, guarantee that Indiana can’t string those long, perfect drives together.
Meanwhile, OSU’s receivers create easy 20-yard gains that Indiana’s defense is not equipped to stop. Over time, OSU’s small advantages on every snap stack up, and Indiana eventually gets squeezed out of the game.
The "shape" of the game is most likely:
-OSU controls efficiency, tempo and field position.
-IU can't produce enough explosives to keep up
-The score is comfortable by mid 3rd quarter but never gets into full on blowout range.
Most likely score: OSU 31-IU 14
That said, there is obviously a way for IU to win, if OSU turns it over 2+ times and IU gets a ST score and this could get into upset range.
