B10 Offensive Boom

[jimotis4heisman]

http://dispatch.com/football/football.php?story=dispatch/2005/11/08/20051108-B2-09.html&chck=t

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http://dispatch.com/football/football.php?story=dispatch/2005/11/08/20051108-B1-02.html

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Score one for offense in Big Ten
Only Pac-10 teams gain more yards
Tuesday, November 08, 2005
Tim May
THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH
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Maybe no Big Ten team is headed for the national championship this season, but it’s still shaping up as a banner year in one respect.
Offense.
The Big Ten ranks second in the country behind the Pac-10 in total yards per game. And nine of the Big Ten’s 11 teams rank in the top 45 in the country in average offense, the most of any conference.
The offensive turnaround comes after only four Big Ten teams were in the top 50 last season. In 2004, the 11 Big Ten teams averaged 370.15 yards per game. This year, they’re averaging 429.83 yards, second only to the Pac-10’s 439.04.
"It’s happening for a couple of reasons," ESPN college football analyst Kirk Herbstreit said. "Number one, I think you are getting better play from the quarterbacks, like Brett Basanez (Northwestern), Drew Stanton (Michigan State), Troy Smith (Ohio State), Michael Robinson (Penn State) and Drew Tate (Iowa). Every team, it seems, their quarterback is playing well.
"And almost every team has incorporated some version of the spread offense. It’s still such a new thing to the Big Ten, the old 3-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust league."
Every offense Ohio State has faced used multiple sets to create mismatches in the passing game or to spread the defense for running plays.
"It’s tough to defend," Herbstreit said.
Of course, that’s a former quarterback’s view. Former OSU linebacker Chris Spielman, who has covered eight Big Ten games this season for ESPN, has a different take.
"I think tackling is horrendous in the Big Ten, with the exception of a few teams, Ohio State being one of them," Spielman said. "There was a time when the betterskilled athletes would play on the defensive side, and now it seems like you’re seeing a lot more of those guys on the offensive side.
"The performance of the skill players in the Big Ten has been pretty crazy."
Smith and Stanton, for example, are fourth and fifth in the nation, respectively, in passing efficiency. Among national rushing leaders, Minnesota’s Laurence Maroney is No. 3, Wisconsin’s Brian Calhoun No. 4, Northwestern’s Tyrell Sutton No. 7, Iowa’s Albert Young No. 11 and OSU’s Antonio Pittman No. 18. And the Big Ten abounds in big-play receiving talent, including OSU’s Santonio Holmes, Michigan’s Jason Avant, Northwestern’s Mark Philmore, Indiana’s James Hardy and Wisconsin’s Brandon Williams.
"You’ve got wide-open football in the Big Ten this year," said former OSU coach John Cooper, a studio analyst for ESPN. "Most of the offenses in the league, they make you defend the width and the depth of the field. And most everybody has got speedy receivers. Ohio State and Michigan don’t have a monopoly on that anymore."
Cooper was in Florida yesterday to give a speech, which made him think of how perceptions linger. The Southeastern Conference is supposed to be a league of dash and splash, and the Big Ten of mud and defense. But it’s the SEC dominating the national defensive standings this year and the Big Ten looking like an offensive thoroughbred.
"I know it’s going to sound funny, but I think the weather even has a little bit to do with it, because it was what in Columbus on Saturday, 65, 70?" Cooper said, laughing. "I remember when we played Penn State in October in 1993 and there was a snowstorm."
So throw global warming in there as a possible heat source for the Big Ten’s offensive boil.
"I think it’s cyclical for any conference, where you see defenses ahead of the offenses a few years and then the offenses go ahead," Herbstreit said. "It’s fair to say defense had pretty much dominated the Big Ten for several years.
"Now this year you’re seeing a lot more talented, veteran players on the offense, for the most part. When you combine that with the new things teams are doing on offense, and with the amazing skill players some of these teams have, it’s natural to see the numbers go up."

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[DaddyBigBucks]

I was curious as to whether this "Offensive Boom" was borne of creative better offenses, or of garden variety bad defenses. I decided that a convenient way of analyzing this is to look at Total Yardage/Points Gained and Total Yardage/Points Yielded in Out-Of-Conference games.

Big 10 Offense vs. OOC

• 448.3 ypg (would rank 18th nationally)
• 6.06 ypp (would rank 26th nationally)
• 36.18 ppg (would rank 13th nationally)

Big 10 Defense vs. OOC

• 351.2 ypg (would rank 47th nationally)
• 5.14 ypp (would rank 54th nationally)
• 20.06 ppg (would rank 30th nationally)

Gee, what a surprise, the offenses come out better than the defenses. Now let's look a little deeper. What really is behind the increase in offensive production?

If you look at yards, it look like it's a little bit of good offense and a moderate amount of bad defense. But if you look at points, it looks like the defenses really aren't that bad, and the offenses are freakin' awesome. Why is that?

To answer that question, let's split up Passing Offense/Defense and Rushing Offense/Defense.

Big 10 Passing vs. OOC

• OFFENSE: 233.52 YPG (would rank 44th nationally)
• DEFENSE: 243.55 YPG (would rank 89th nationally)

Big 10 Rushing vs. OOC

• OFFENSE: 214.79 YPG (would rank 17th nationally)
• DEFENSE: 107.64 YPG (would rank 17th nationally)

Most of this is what you would expect from a BCS team against their collective OOC schedule. They are mostly lesser teams; so you run the ball, shut down their run and give them a good pasting right?

But what about that pass defense? Did the Big 10 give up that many passing yards because the OOC teams were, for the most part, playing from behind and throwing the ball around to catch up?

I don't think so. Do you really think that Cryami doesn't face teams that try to throw the ball to catch up in the over-rated All Cupcake Conference? And Cryami is ranked #1 in pass defense.

I don't care how far behind the OOC teams were, this is a sign of BAD Big 10 pass defense overall. This also explains the difference in yardage vs. points, at least defensively. The Big 10 defenses are good in the red-zone, as the field shortens and the zones shrink. But between the 30s, they got pushed around a little bit.

It looks like the Big 10 defenses are OK overall, but weak against the pass. And Big 10 offenses are somewhat improved. Let's hope our Big 10 brethern can outscore their bowl opponents.

 

[Dryden]

I don't care how far behind the OOC teams were, this is a sign of BAD Big 10 pass defense overall. This also explains the difference in yardage vs. points, at least defensively. The Big 10 defenses are good in the red-zone, as the field shortens and the zones shrink. But between the 30s, they got pushed around a little bit.

You can attribute almost 800 yards (10%) of that OOC offense passing production to Charlie Weis and Notre Dame, who played Michigan, Michigan St, and Purdue. Purdue has single-handedly given up 970 yards passing to 3 OOC opponents (about 14% of the league total). A handful of QBs are responsible for about half of the league totals -- let's not forget the 500 some yards that Omar Jacobs and BGSU hung on Wisconsin in the season opener.

I agree with Spielman though, the tackling hasn't been very good. Purdue, Iowa and Wisconsin especially have been extremely poor this season, which is not indicitive of how those teams' players are coached in those programs. Those are three teams you would normally expect to have good overall defenses, but for whatever reason it just hasn't been there this season.

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

Good call on Notre Dame, Dryden.

OOC Teams that passed for over 300 yards on Big 10 teams and their [NCAA rank in Pass Offense]:

• Rutgers [41]
• Kent State [22]
• Notre Dame [5] (twice)
• Colorado State [16]
• Arizona State [2]
• Cincinnati [88] (or as Oh8ch calls them, cciinncciinnaattii)
• Akron [25]
• Bowling Green [17]

Average Rank [24.6]

 

[Dryden]

After thinking about how uncharacteristic Wisconsin and Iowa have been this season defensively, it struck me that both teams are starting entirely new defensive lines from end-to-end. Of course, one of the easiest ways to stop a passing offense is to remove the QB from the equation, and these are two teams that haven't been able to do that.

I looked up number of team sacks, and not surprisingly, Ohio St and Penn St are both Top-6, but after those two the third ranked team, Michigan, is all the way down at 66, Wisconsin is fourth in the conference but 74th nationally. 9 of the 11 teams in the conference are in the bottom half nationally in sack totals.

Poor defensive line play and little pass rush from nine teams in the conference isn't a good recipe when playing so many teams that run the spread or against starting QBs who could already hang 300 yards on you even in the face of something resembling a pass rush.

 

[crazybuckfan40]

I think the reason for this is a combination of very young Defensive teams in the big ten and experienced qb's and wr's.

 

[Taosman]

I've read were NFL coaches are disturbed that colleges aren't teaching basic tackling very well. This explains some of the college scores going up.
But, people love to see scoring football. The coaches see this and put more emphasis into the offenses. It's simple. Offense sells tickets. Sells TV coverage. Brings in recruits. Brings alumni money.

 

[Yertle]

I always love BigDaddyBucks analysis...however, my favorite part about this thread is Michigan's highly regarded offense is sitting in 8th place in the Big 10. And when compared to 2004, only one-win Purdon't is worse... HA!!!

 

[Bucklion]

I've read were NFL coaches are disturbed that colleges aren't teaching basic tackling very well. This explains some of the college scores going up.
But, people love to see scoring football. The coaches see this and put more emphasis into the offenses. It's simple. Offense sells tickets. Sells TV coverage. Brings in recruits. Brings alumni money.

That's actually a shift in the landscape as well...defense was much more higly publicized and looked at much more favorably by pollsters in the 80's and early 90's than it is today.

 

[BUCKYLE]

coop may have been on to something, slight as it may be, with the weather. I was just discussing this with a friend the other day. I could be way off, but I cant remember the last time it was so warm in the mid-west this late into the season. I lived in central ohio untill this spring. I worked outside all year round for three years. It was never this warm in november, at least, not that i can remember.