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2025 Cotton Bowl: #2 tOSU vs aTm/Miami-FL winner, Wed 12/31 7:30 ET at JerryWorld

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Jaxbuck said:
I'll just put this in here instead of offense and defense threads. This is a mix of FEI data (tells us what teams have done) and CFB EPA data (tells us how teams do it). There is more to it but that's the high level.

OSU Bracket Matrix

Threat to OSU on each side of the ball
Team Their Defense vs OSU Offense Their Offense vs OSU Defense Total Threat Level
Indiana Very High Moderate High
Georgia Moderate Moderate Moderate
Miami Moderate Low Moderate–Low
Texas A&M Low Low Low
Ole Miss Low Minimal Minimal
Tulane Minimal Minimal Minimal

Indiana​

  • Only team whose defensive architecture materially distorts OSU's offensive rhythm as we just saw.
  • Offense is not elite; threat comes 75% from defense (13 points)

Georgia​

  • Balanced, top-10 in everything, but nothing that specifically attacks OSU’s structural weaknesses.
  • Most “complete” opponent on this side.

Miami​

  • Defense good enough to slow OSU some, but OSU defense >Miami’s offense.
  • Hard for Miami to get to 20 points in this game.

Texas A&M​

  • QB-run based run game gets shut down by OSU front.
  • Defensive drive efficiency is not top-tier when opponent-adjusted.
  • Can’t threaten OSU unless OSU self-inflicts.

Ole Miss​

  • Cannot defend OSU’s WR room or methodical structure.
  • Offense gets erased by OSU D.

Tulane​

Ha

We will be ~7 point favorite over TAMU/Miami
Probably ~-3 over UGA

My single biggest concern is playing in Glendale. Fuck that place.
Click to expand...
Good data! I haven't watched Georgia in awhile, probably since either their games against Tennessee or Bama. What is it about them that gives everyone pause? Their defense seems pretty mediocre by UGA standards and not sure their d-line is what it usually is. Were they just beat up and now they're healthy? If the Buckeyes show up for three games I'm not sure there's a team that scares me. Biggest question I had was the OSU defense going up a legit offense and they answered that bell emphatically despite not even playing their A game. Now the biggest question I have is will the offensive coaching staff lose their fucking minds in certain situations like they did in the B1G championship. As poorly as the O played at times, they absolutely did enough to put up at least 24 points.
 
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