After an eventful Week 13, the bubble is all but gone and there are 13 options for 12 places. Here is what is at stake in each conference.
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Forde-Yard Dash: Making Sense of College Football Playoff Scenarios
After an eventful Week 13, the bubble is all but gone and there are 13 options for 12 places. Here is what is at stake in each conference.
The bubble is all but gone. What’s left are 13 options for 12 places. Of course, another weekend like this past one could reopen a Pandora’s box of possibilities—three-loss teams in the tournament?—but for now the invite list looks firm:
The
Big Ten (1) is sitting on a four-team jackpot, having gotten the Oregon Ducks, Ohio State Buckeyes, Penn State Nittany Lions and Indiana Hoosiers this far with a total of three losses between them. All four are favored by at least 17 points in their regular-season finales. And given the dearth of bubble teams, as many as three of them (Oregon, Ohio State and maybe Penn State) could all afford a loss and still stay in the bracket.
The
Southeastern Conference (2) has been downsized to three playoff teams after The Night That Drove Ol’ Dixie Down. The dismissal of the Alabama Crimson Tide was the most shocking result of the day, being routed 24–3 by an Oklahoma Sooners team that hadn’t beaten an FBS team since September. Before that, the Mississippi Rebels completed the triple crown of bad losses—the Kentucky Wildcats, the LSU Tigers and now the Florida Gators—to drop from contention. And the nightcap was the Texas A&M Aggies’ four-overtime loss to an Auburn Tigers program that has been a dysfunctional mess for five seasons—but is always capable of producing some mayhem in Jordan-Hare Stadium.
What remains: the Georgia Bulldogs, Texas Longhorns and Tennessee Volunteers. Georgia already has clinched a spot in the SEC championship game and will play the winner of Texas-Texas A&M. Tennessee, after its fans and some media that cover the team spent last week prematurely caterwauling about Indiana, had its path paved by its SEC peers. Texas is in by virtue of its record at this point, not resume.
(Texas A&M could yet play an interesting role that disrupts the bracket. More on that later.)
The
Atlantic Coast Conference (3) could be a two-bid league now, benefiting from the SEC cannibalization, if both the SMU Mustangs and Miami Hurricanes reach the league title game at 11–1. But there is a third option—and the lone lurking bubble team—in the 9–2 Clemson Tigers. They have a quality-win opportunity Saturday against the rival South Carolina Gamecocks that could give them a shot even if they don’t make the ACC championship game.
Best-case scenario for the ACC: Either SMU or Miami wins the league at 12–1; the loser of a close title game ends up 11–2; and Clemson finishes 10–2. If an upset imperils a team currently in the bracket next week, the ACC could have a shot at three teams.
Another factor that could help the league’s standing: a strong showing in four rivalry games vs. the SEC this weekend. In addition to Clemson-South Carolina, the Louisville Cardinals play Kentucky; the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets play Georgia; and the Florida State Seminoles play Florida (don’t get your hopes up in that one, ACC).
The
Big 12 (4) strongly resembles a one-big league, and even its champion could fall outside the protected top four that earn first-round byes. The two teams atop the standings both went down at the same time Saturday afternoon—the Colorado Buffaloes to the Kansas Jayhawks, and the BYU Cougars to the Arizona State Sun Devils, the latter a two-field-storm carnival ending. That was peak Big 12.
There are nine—yes, nine—teams still with a chance to make the title game in the final weekend. Arizona State (9–2) and the Iowa State Cyclones (9–2) have the inside track, but chaos never sleeps in this league.
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