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We think we've turned it around

Akron #115
Rutgers #93
Maryland #87

That isn't confirmation, imo.

I agree with your point completely

The defense appears to be a work in progress
The defense appears to be making strides
Most importantly, the defense has yet to face an opponent that will really tell us what we want to know

There are, however, encouraging data points. They don’t prove anything, but they’re worth noting

Data point 1 (imho):

yards per play for the Terps:

vs Iowa: 5.02
Vs OSU: 4.47

It doesn’t prove anything by itself, but as the Buckeyes had been struggling regardless of opponent, it’s encouraging
 
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I feel much better at this point than I have in some other seasons where there might have been hope, but no legitimate expectation of improvement.

This side is young with talent and is getting better with experience. I think there's enough talent that it offsets some, but clearly not all, of the ramp-up time. I agree that we don't know if we've turned it around, but we've seen enough system, play calling, and rotational changes along with improved and improving play to be able to foresee turning it around and playing well against better competition. Thanks the gods, old and new, that the conference schedule was laid out the way it was this year.


They thump a fully healthy PSU they way I think they can and I'll go from moderately confident to confident. Set all the stats aside, that is the only team in the B1G that is even close to the talent level of OSU (and it's not that close).
 
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National rank of points per play. It was in the original post.

Thanks. I didn’t see the original post.

It says Penn State is #68 and Maryland is #87. Maryland scores more points per game. I get the value of points per play, but that definitely doesn’t tell the whole story. Penn State has run 416 offensive plays, scoring 170 points. They average 28ppg. Maryland has run 429 plays, scoring 180 points. They average 30ppg.

Maryland averages more points, yards per play, total yards, and has scored two more offensive TDs than Penn State.
 
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Thanks. I didn’t see the original post.

It says Penn State is #68 and Maryland is #87. Maryland scores more points per game. I get the value of points per play, but that definitely doesn’t tell the whole story. Penn State has run 416 offensive plays, scoring 170 points. They average 28ppg. Maryland has run 429 plays, scoring 180 points. They average 30ppg.

Maryland averages more points, yards per play, total yards, and has scored two more offensive TDs than Penn State.

no stat tells the whole story. They are data points. There is a lot of material out there to read about advanced football metrics then use them how you will.
 
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Remaining opponents national rankings for offensive points per play

I did this for offense so here is the same look for the defense.

IU #124
PSU #68
Corn #63
Purdue #95
Sparty #14
Tsun #11
Iowa (if B1G CCG) #40

For reference
OSU #2

Minny #66
Oregon #39
Tulsa #79
Akron #115
Rutgers #93
Maryland #87

Same as offense I think the numbers will change after they play OSU but we all know the defense is a work in progress and, by the numbers, they haven't faced an elite offense yet. Closest we may come to that is the two schools from up north at the end of the year. My eyeballs have a hard time buying that though when watching tsun. I think Sparty is best offense left on the schedule and possibly most well rounded threat left on the schedule.

My takeaway is the team we saw at the beginning of the year would have been gashed by Akron, Rutgers and Maryland similar to Minny and Tulsa, so I see progress. Similarly ranked offenses have been slowed down which is improvement....we just don't know what that looks like against a team with a pulse.
 
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We think we've turned it around

Akron #115
Rutgers #93
Maryland #87

That isn't confirmation, imo.
They aren’t elite by any means, and most likely won’t be, but I think we can safely say the defense is at least competent if not good. They’re basically doing what they’re supposed to do against bad offenses. Rutgers and Maryland would’ve moved the ball at will three weeks ago. Biggest thing now is missed tackles imo. If we didn’t miss so many tackles the numbers would look even worse for the aforementioned teams. Coaches are putting players in a position to succeed which absolutely wasn’t happening several weeks ago.
 
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Little by little, day by day.
Which is awesome to think where we can be in a few weeks.

IU without Penix is in big trouble. Especially for making it a game last year.

What offense is out there that's a problem for us? Maybe Nebraska or ttun? I think it's Sparty but even then they have 1 WR we can take away then it's about stopping the run.

Even when I think of the college playoffs... IMO the only teams that truly scare me are Alabama or Oklahoma offensively (UGA defensively is a problem tho).
 
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They aren’t elite by any means, and most likely won’t be, but I think we can safely say the defense is at least competent if not good. They’re basically doing what they’re supposed to do against bad offenses. Rutgers and Maryland would’ve moved the ball at will three weeks ago. Biggest thing now is missed tackles imo. If we didn’t miss so many tackles the numbers would look even worse for the aforementioned teams. Coaches are putting players in a position to succeed which absolutely wasn’t happening several weeks ago.

100%

That's been my belief and source of surprise/hope since Akron. Schemes are multiple and players are in position to execute those schemes. It has little to do with being physically superior or those offenses sucking.

Now, what those stats do point to, and all eyes have seen, is that better offenses are coming and they will be able to make OSU pay for mistakes that the last three have not. OSU's defense continues to improve and those opportunities will , hopefully, be more and more limited.
 
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Which is awesome to think where we can be in a few weeks.

IU without Penix is in big trouble. Especially for making it a game last year.

What offense is out there that's a problem for us? Maybe Nebraska or ttun? I think it's Sparty but even then they have 1 WR we can take away then it's about stopping the run.

Even when I think of the college playoffs... IMO the only teams that truly scare me are Alabama or Oklahoma offensively (UGA defensively is a problem tho).
Even with the injuries I thought Maryland would stress the defense a lot more than they did. I was nervous Rakim Jarret would be doing what did towards the end all game.
 
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