The Hole in Ohio State’s Swing
Ohio State’s offense in 2019 was unquestionably one of its best ever. It was also imperfect. Perhaps the most remarkable thing about it was that it could light up both stat sheet and scoreboard while exhibiting flaws that some of the better opposing defenses were able to exploit at times, just as a Hall of Fame pitcher can find the hole in an otherwise great batter’s swing. Before getting to the flaws, let’s take a look at what the Buckeyes were good at.
In mid-season last year, I posted something
HERE that quantified just how ridiculously clutch Justin Fields was. It did not end there, as the Ohio State offense continued to produce when it mattered most, right up until their last play of the season.
Ohio State’s pass efficiency was 5th overall last season, 4th on 3rd down and 1st on 4th down. But 3rd and 4th down are not just about pass efficiency, they’re also about getting first downs. When it comes to true success when passing on third down, the Buckeyes were way out in front.
It gets better, like the Buckeyes’ performance on 3rd and long, but anytime you start looking at the details that show you the best in something, you can also see the imperfections.
First of all, breaking it down this way reveals that the Buckeyes were only very good on 2nd down last year, not elite like they were on every other down. By down, Ohio State passing efficiency reads as follows:
So… What’s up with second down? Minnesota is #1 in the country on second down; it is by far their best down. Other teams do just fine on that down as well. Looking at the rest of the country and ranking every team by how well they did on their worst down, only 3 teams were better on their worst down than Ohio State was on their own worst down, so some of this may just be the variability of college football. Then again, omitting 4th down from consideration, 3rd down is the worst down for well over half of FBS teams. The reasons for that are obvious. So again, what's up with 2nd down? Among the top 7 teams (ranked by who performed best on their worst down), only Ohio State had their worst performance on 2nd down. Of the top 17, only Ohio State and Wisconsin were at their worst on 2nd down. My suspicion is that the type of plays that tend to be called on second down is behind this, but I would love to hear any theories that the rest of you might have. While you’re thinking about it consider this: Justin was sacked more times on 2nd down than any other down last year.
At this point, 2 of the 3 of you that are still reading are probably thinking that Ohio State’s second down performance doesn’t rise anywhere near the level of a “hole in their swing”. On that we would agree. You find that when you examine 3rd down more closely.
When you break 3rd down by how far the offense has to go to make a first down you find the following (again, good news first):
- There is a bigger gap between Ohio State’s rating of 232.57 on 3rd and 10+ (Best in FBS) and USC’s rating of 205.82 on that down and distance (2nd best), than between any other adjacent teams in this metric. Also, Justin was sacked on 3rd and 10+ only once all year, on a 3rd and 10 in the first quarter of the B1G CCG.
- Ohio State’s rating on 3rd and 7 to 9 yards to go is OVER 90 POINTS LOWER (141.75) and is ranked 37th in the country for that down and distance.
- 3rd and 4 to 6 yards to go is a little better at 151.43 (31st in the country)
In my opinion, the flaws that we see in Ohio State’s game are at least partly to blame for this. Many, including Mike Hartlein and others that know QB play better than I do, have observed that Justin did not make decisions as quickly as some might like in his first year in the system. The good news: he didn’t rush things and had thrown only 1 interception all year entering the playoffs. The bad news: on short routes, when teams are expecting short routes, the decisions have to be made very fast or you end up scrambling or sacked.
One thing Justin does NOT do though: He does NOT throw the ball short of the sticks on 3rd and 7 or more. On 3rd and 7+, Ohio State came short of a first down on only 10.71% of their completions last year. The next closest team in FBS, Texas A&M, fell short of the sticks on 17.65% of their completions and everyone else was over 21%. Even more remarkable to me is that Ohio State was #1 in this metric even when you only look at 3rd and 7 to 9 yards to go (leaving out 10+, which is Ohio State’s strong suit). Recall that 3rd and 7 to 9 is Ohio State’s weakness in terms of rating. It also happens to be a distance at which Ohio State never failed to gain a first down when they completed a pass and thus they gained a first down on 59.09% of such downs on which they threw a pass last year, the best rate in the country, even on their weakest distance (7 to 9 yards).
Taking stock of where we are so far:
- Justin Fields is clutch (3rd and 10+ is money)
- Comparatively struggles on 2nd down
- Comparatively struggles on 3rd and 7 to 9
- On 3rd and 7 to 9 (or more), Ohio State has the best 1st down percentage when passing and throws the ball short of the sticks less than everyone else, by far
What that leaves us with is 3rd and short and 3rd and medium. This is where things get interesting. This next bit might be easiest to digest in a table, because it is weird. … very weird.
Like I said… weird
So, a QB that throws the ball short of the sticks rarely on 3rd and 7+ is 101st in the country in that metric on 3rd and 4 to 6 yards to go. A team that is first in first down % on 3rd and 7+ is 84th in first down % on 3rd and 4 to 6, a full 20 percentage points LOWER with fewer yards to go. I suspect the reason for this might be the use of a lot of screens of various types on that down and distance and relying on athletes to make plays, and that this tendency is a tad predictable. I would like to hear other thoughts on it though.
Conclusion:
If the Buckeyes can make decisions from the pocket faster in the starting quarterback’s second year in the system (seems likely), and if they can throw the ball a little farther downfield on 3rd and medium (and 3rd and short for that matter), they can do away with the one “hole in the swing” of one of the best offenses any of us has ever seen. This just might be a truly amazing season.
