Game Thread 2015 Sugar Bowl: (1) Alabama vs. (4) Ohio State, Jan 1st @ 8:30p ET, ESPN (civilized thread)

[kujirakira]

The tell when they go under center is interesting. That could either be money for a defense, or Kiffin setting you up for a big play.

 

[beau]

So you feel OSU is so outmatched that the only way OSU can win is off of numerous mistakes?

I think both teams are well coached and Alabama has more 4/5 star athletes. If both play their A game, I think the Tide wins in a close game. Ala did not play an A game against, Aub, AR, Ole Miss and West Va and Our best A game thus far was against Texas A and M.

 

[beau]

He hasn't fixed it yet. I don't know how you can fuck up a four letter last name of a guy you've looked at and diagnosed/analyzed so much. Little [Mark May] probably did it on purpose.

Sims has locked onto his first read a good bit. That's one of the reasons I was thinking Coker might start this season. Sims ability to do checkdowns and go through progressions has been his biggest weakness and probably why he is projected 7th-FA in the draft. With another year in the system I think he would continue to improve and be drafted as a QB. If you watched the ironbowl on one of the interceptions (the one shown in the article) they left Christian Jones wide open - by 10 yards. It was an error on Sims to throw to Coop, but you shouldnot/cannot leave Jones that open. He made that checkdown against aTm though it was to Yeldon.

I think maybe the throws across the middle are a weakness? IDK he is so accurate and his balls come out so fast. I think the reason the slot position suffers and the middle throws are not there is because Christian Jones and OJ Howard have bulked up a bit to block. Both of those guys are pretty good and pretty fast, but trying to cover them with linebackers? No. Two strikes down the middle to OJ Howard (OM, WVU) were picked off partly because OJ did not fight for the ball. The throws were there. Ardarius Stewart might be a surprise sprung on a team not expecting a speedy slot guy. He should be healthy. Kiffin laments losing Drake (against OM) who is an absolute nightmare to line up against.

Alabama is really versatile I don't see "icloud" or whatever being an end all answer. OSU is going to have to have a crafty defensive mind and be able to play one of his best games to slow that offence down. It makes it all harder when they go fast. I think OJ Howard has been a key contributor despite his lacking stats just because he is a bit of a mismatch. Hard for a linebacker to cover and capable of handling his own in blocking roles. Maybe Sims is just slow to read the middle. If he throws the ball sooner the CB and safeties would not have gotten to Howard in time to pick the ball. It might work. If Sims doesn't read the middle in time you might get away with linebackers covering the slot/TE. I wouldn't count on that as the basis for my defense.

Then there is Derrick Henry off of the edge. Sht. I wouldn't want to have to work a game plan for that. Forcing a passing game, making Sims checkdown, and hoping someone gets there in time if he does might be the best option. I would start by trying to steal signals, analyzing tendencies, and reading keys though. Don't try to defend everything, just the play that Alabama is about to run.

 

[beau]

Excellent article, Of all the Tide players, O.J. Howard has been the biggest letdown.
He's got the size, speed and athleticism but he get's out jumped and out hustled time and time again, fails to make key blocks, and drops balls in the gut. I keep waiting for his " break out" game and wonder if we should leave Vogler in on passing downs more often. Vogler plays hard EVERY down and reminds me a little of Dallas Cowboy, TE, Jason Whitten, a guy that the pro scouts said was too slow to play in the NFL.

Hell, against Ole Miss, Howard at 6'4" got out jumped and out hustled by Ole Miss, 5' 9" CB, Golson, for the winning interception. Am I being too hard on Howard? SECorbust, I value your opinion. The guy just doesn't seem to be giving 100 percent to me. He's our Jadaveon Clowney on offense IMO.

 

[beau]

My perception:

High-scoring shootout: OSU can hang quite nicely with Alabama.
Low-scoring slugfest: definitely favors Bama, though OSU's big play ability on O (and creating TOs on D) can help them overcome that.
If Sims plays badly: I think Bama still has a decent shot to win, though he'll need help with a stout defense bailing him out.
If Cardale plays badly: I think OSU has a much slimmer chance of winning. Bama will sell out to stop EzE and Cardale must make them pay through the air (and a little bit on the ground).

While Vegas is strictly in the business of projecting perception, not outcomes, I think their point spread is pretty fair. This is a pretty good Buckeye team but not a great one. Fortunately I don't believe there are any great teams this year.

Excellent post.

 

[SECorBust]

Am I being too hard on Howard? SECorbust, I value your opinion.

Probably a little. He was clutch against LSU and some games later this season running a drag/out route. I remember him dropping some balls long ago and I don't remember who we were playing. With Cooper on the field if you drop a few balls your targets go way down.

 

[beau]

I may be wrong, but I think the Tide has more depth. I know for a fact that Ala has more depth on the defensive line than in past years. If the *DB's come to play, Ala is really salty on defense. (*They brought it against Tex A&M and AR) The only thin spot on the Tide....is the OL, in my opinion, not a LOT of depth there.

However, the AR game was our worst offensive game of the year. It rained and there were gusty winds and I bring up the weather because as you know the Sugar Bowl is indoors and I look for our offense to score 30 or more. If scoring 30 was a 50/50 bet on Bovada, I'd put $100 on it.

One more thing, I'm not sure OSU has more " team speed" than Alabama. No team thus far has had much success beating Ala's defense to the edge.

 

[jwinslow]

He hasn't fixed it yet. I don't know how you can fuck up a four letter last name of a guy you've looked at and diagnosed/analyzed so much. Little [Mark May] probably did it on purpose.

Or he's a human being, like someone who spells Christion's name wrong. (I did it a few times in this post at first) Also there have been a gaggle of QBs named Simms.

Sims has locked onto his first read a good bit. That's one of the reasons I was thinking Coker might start this season. Sims ability to do checkdowns and go through progressions has been his biggest weakness and probably why he is projected 7th-FA in the draft. With another year in the system I think he would continue to improve and be drafted as a QB. If you watched the ironbowl on one of the interceptions (the one shown in the article) they left Christian Jones wide open - by 10 yards. It was an error on Sims to throw to Coop, but you shouldnot/cannot leave Jones that open. He made that checkdown against aTm though it was to Yeldon.

I think maybe the throws across the middle are a weakness? IDK he is so accurate and his balls come out so fast.

Good stuff and I think this meshes with what Ross was talking about, limiting the damage by the backs and cooper and seeing if Sims can consistently beat you. He has the potential but has struggled a lot with mistakes, timing and consistency.

I think the reason the slot position suffers and the middle throws are not there is because Christian Jones and OJ Howard have bulked up a bit to block. Both of those guys are pretty good and pretty fast, but trying to cover them with linebackers? No. Two strikes down the middle to OJ Howard (OM, WVU) were picked off partly because OJ did not fight for the ball. The throws were there. Ardarius Stewart might be a surprise sprung on a team not expecting a speedy slot guy. He should be healthy. Kiffin laments losing Drake (against OM) who is an absolute nightmare to line up against.

Christion's production dropped from 36 to 19. More relevant to me are SEC stats:

Christion Jones

09 rec 1.19 per SEC game in 2014
22 rec 2.75 per SEC game in 2013

OJ's stats, meanwhile, are virtually identical, 15 vs 14 (but 0 vs 2 tds last year).

Alabama is really versatile I don't see "icloud" or whatever being an end all answer.

I think his Cloud breakdown was quite solid and a good breakdown of what OSU may try and comparable to what has worked before. Whether they will succeed is another matter.

OSU is going to have to have a crafty defensive mind and be able to play one of his best games to slow that offence down. It makes it all harder when they go fast. I think OJ Howard has been a key contributor despite his lacking stats just because he is a bit of a mismatch. Hard for a linebacker to cover and capable of handling his own in blocking roles. Maybe Sims is just slow to read the middle. If he throws the ball sooner the CB and safeties would not have gotten to Howard in time to pick the ball. It might work. If Sims doesn't read the middle in time you might get away with linebackers covering the slot/TE. I wouldn't count on that as the basis for my defense.

Then there is Derrick Henry off of the edge. Sht. I wouldn't want to have to work a game plan for that. Forcing a passing game, making Sims checkdown, and hoping someone gets there in time if he does might be the best option. I would start by trying to steal signals, analyzing tendencies, and reading keys though. Don't try to defend everything, just the play that Alabama is about to run.

Chris Ash is an excellent defensive mind. The DL is the among the best in america when they are on. The LBs are fairly average and the safeties are not consistent. The corners are pretty good not great, though Eli is making some nice strides as a RS Frosh.

Darron Lee is a pretty athletic kid. He came in as an athlete/hybrid, 6'2 200 lbs in the 2013 class. This year he's listed at 228 (I'm guessing that's 5-8 lbs too generous) and is an extremely quick disruptor and pretty solid in coverage. By contrast, I want no part of Josh Perry or Raekwon McMillan in coverage. Perry has enough quickness but has average instincts. McMillan is an instinctive player but merely an agile MLB in terms of quickness.

One big factor in this game could be the return of #26 Armani Reeves. He subs in for DT Washington on obvious passing downs (with Darron Lee shifting to a more frequent pass rusher). Armani is a 5'9" quick, physical corner that brings experience and toughness to the position. There is a steep dropoff from him to #19 Gareon Conley, who played a lot this year as Armani battled concussion issues.



Henry is a load and surprisingly nimble for his size. As for gameplanning for him catching passes on the edge, I think they'd wait to see Sims do that first. He has 3 catches (1 per game) on the year.

Stewart is definitely an athletic kid. Like Henry, I'd be prepared for him in the passing game but wait until Sims finds him consistently before adjusting my gameplan. He has 12 catches on the year with 8 of them against FAU & W Car.

 

[jwinslow]

I think both teams are well coached and Alabama has more 4/5 star athletes.

I think Alabama has 7 years of building, developing, weeding out and replacing athletes. Urban took over a reeling (but still talented) program and had to overhaul a lot of positions. Contrast that with OSU's 2.1 years of recruiting under urban.

The DL should have had a third five star (Spence) to go with Washington & Bosa, and Bennett was a pretty high four star. The problem is the depth. Five star Tommy Schutt is a solid depth guy but there is no one behind them, especially at DT. The recruiting misses before Urban left them painfully thin upfront (Spence, Washington, Bosa, Schutt were all Urban guys). Urban took a gamble on Jamal Marcus but he ended up washing out off the field.

Jalyn Holmes is a good example. He is going to be a pretty good pass rusher, but he's a true frosh and is only mildly useful at this point. Alabama has a host of Jalyn Holmes.

Same thing with DT and LB. You have a host of talented big men to rotate inside and have churned out a host of LBs. OSU has landed some good talent but it's very young. They won't be deep until 2015 or 16, and a good chunk of that depth will still be young.

The talent at DB is solid but also young. Grant (11) is the exception, Powell (12), Apple (13), Bell (13), Conley (13), Reeves (13)... with Webb (14) and Smith (14) as the depth.

 

[bukIpower]

I know you bama fans are trust worthy of Jones the othe WR but if Sims has an issue getting tractor beams to Cooper I will say ill be pissed if he isn't double covered. I said it from day 1 you have to double Coop. The one time he was limited this year was in the Arkansas game and although the tide won it was a close game 14-13 with a yearly low in production (250 yards).

I think alabama for years has had that great WR out wide that gets teams into 6 or 7 man boxes (Cooper, Julio) and when that threat is neutralized running becomes a little harder. What makes doubling Cooper so difficult is how many positions he's put in to get him away from double coverage.

What truly makes a team unstoppable is a QB willing to stand in and go through his reads. With how lopsided the receiving numbers are I would still have that as a question mark on Sims. If I'm OSU I put 7-8 in the box, double Cooper, and then pressure Sims either force him to throw the ball to a double covered Cooper or scramble his ability to go through his progressions that up to this point haven't been proven.

You guys have the talent to make us pay for keying on Cooper but IMO the play calling and Sims stubborness toward Cooper have yet to prove otherwise. I'm a big believer in making a team fight left handed at all costs and stopping the run and Cooper is that perverbial right arm. If osu loses because sims throws for 300, Jones has 160 yards receiving, and your tight end catches some seam passes the id have no problem with it because Alabama will have proven they are just a complete team.

However if Bama wins with Cooper going for around 200, and the bama running game around 250 due to our refusal to commit more than 6 to the box then I will be more upset at our defensive plan then praisiing bama.

And if we lose by doubling Cooper and stacking the box and you guys still run for 250 with another 200 receiving to Cooper then damn we aren't even in your class as a team.

 

[kippy1040]

Or he's a human being, like someone who spells Christion's name wrong. (I did it a few times in this post at first) Also there have been a gaggle of QBs named Simms.
Good stuff and I think this meshes with what Ross was talking about, limiting the damage by the backs and cooper and seeing if Sims can consistently beat you. He has the potential but has struggled a lot with mistakes, timing and consistency. Christion's production dropped from 36 to 19. More relevant to me are SEC stats:
I would like to think that this game could be the one, that we will watch our Linebackers, corners, and safetys all come together and mesh as one unit. I think Chris Ash made these guys believe in what he is trying to deliver to them. Maybe we will watch these guys grow up before Our Eyes. Ya never know. Could be - could be. Go Bucks.
Christion Jones

09 rec 1.19 per SEC game in 2014
22 rec 2.75 per SEC game in 2013

OJ's stats, meanwhile, are virtually identical, 15 vs 14 (but 0 vs 2 tds last year).
I think his Cloud breakdown was quite solid and a good breakdown of what OSU may try and comparable to what has worked before. Whether they will succeed is another matter.


Chris Ash is an excellent defensive mind. The DL is the among the best in america when they are on. The LBs are fairly average and the safeties are not consistent. The corners are pretty good not great, though Eli is making some nice strides as a RS Frosh.

Darron Lee is a pretty athletic kid. He came in as an athlete/hybrid, 6'2 200 lbs in the 2013 class. This year he's listed at 228 (I'm guessing that's 5-8 lbs too generous) and is an extremely quick disruptor and pretty solid in coverage. By contrast, I want no part of Josh Perry or Raekwon McMillan in coverage. Perry has enough quickness but has average instincts. McMillan is an instinctive player but merely an agile MLB in terms of quickness.

One big factor in this game could be the return of #26 Armani Reeves. He subs in for DT Washington on obvious passing downs (with Darron Lee shifting to a more frequent pass rusher). Armani is a 5'9" quick, physical corner that brings experience and toughness to the position. There is a steep dropoff from him to #19 Gareon Conley, who played a lot this year as Armani battled concussion issues.



Henry is a load and surprisingly nimble for his size. As for gameplanning for him catching passes on the edge, I think they'd wait to see Sims do that first. He has 3 catches (1 per game) on the year.

Stewart is definitely an athletic kid. Like Henry, I'd be prepared for him in the passing game but wait until Sims finds him consistently before adjusting my gameplan. He has 12 catches on the year with 8 of them against FAU & W Car.

 

[Bill Lucas]

I may be wrong, but I think the Tide has more depth. I know for a fact that Ala has more depth on the defensive line than in past years. If the *DB's come to play, Ala is really salty on defense. (*They brought it against Tex A&M and AR) The only thin spot on the Tide....is the OL, in my opinion, not a LOT of depth there.

However, the AR game was our worst offensive game of the year. It rained and there were gusty winds and I bring up the weather because as you know the Sugar Bowl is indoors and I look for our offense to score 30 or more. If scoring 30 was a 50/50 bet on Bovada, I'd put $100 on it.

One more thing, I'm not sure OSU has more " team speed" than Alabama. No team thus far has had much success beating Ala's defense to the edge.

I agree about depth.

Getting to the edge isn't about team speed to me. It's going to be tough to run inside out from the LB position or for the safeties when you have wide receivers blocking as if their lives depended on it. More often than not it's critical blocks from wide receivers that reveal the edge for Ohio State. Defeat those blocks and you defeat the edge running game.

 

[kujirakira]

I know you bama fans are trust worthy of Jones the othe WR but if Sims has an issue getting tractor beams to Cooper I will say ill be pissed if he isn't double covered. I said it from day 1 you have to double Coop. The one time he was limited this year was in the Arkansas game and although the tide won it was a close game 14-13 with a yearly low in production (250 yards).

I think alabama for years has had that great WR out wide that gets teams into 6 or 7 man boxes (Cooper, Julio) and when that threat is neutralized running becomes a little harder. What makes doubling Cooper so difficult is how many positions he's put in to get him away from double coverage.

What truly makes a team unstoppable is a QB willing to stand in and go through his reads. With how lopsided the receiving numbers are I would still have that as a question mark on Sims. If I'm OSU I put 7-8 in the box, double Cooper, and then pressure Sims either force him to throw the ball to a double covered Cooper or scramble his ability to go through his progressions that up to this point haven't been proven.

You guys have the talent to make us pay for keying on Cooper but IMO the play calling and Sims stubborness toward Cooper have yet to prove otherwise. I'm a big believer in making a team fight left handed at all costs and stopping the run and Cooper is that perverbial right arm. If osu loses because sims throws for 300, Jones has 160 yards receiving, and your tight end catches some seam passes the id have no problem with it because Alabama will have proven they are just a complete team.

However if Bama wins with Cooper going for around 200, and the bama running game around 250 due to our refusal to commit more than 6 to the box then I will be more upset at our defensive plan then praisiing bama.

And if we lose by doubling Cooper and stacking the box and you guys still run for 250 with another 200 receiving to Cooper then damn we aren't even in your class as a team.

It's very similar to what we did to MSU. Alabama has better checkers on the board, but philosophically I think it's a similar concept.
Urban and Ash both seemed to hint at the same during their recent interviews. Both harped on the opponents "tendencies" and Urban saying "everybody is human".
Urban also mentioned they have 2 WRs other than Cooper, but only seemed particularly worried about one other one (probably White after Kiffin's determined efforts to feature him against Missouri)

FWIW, Kings (WR) and Price (TE) indisputably had their best day of the season against us and Mumphrey(WR) arguably did. Nor did we completely shut down Lippett. Nonetheless, forcing them to fight left-handed was a successful endeavor. If we can win the turnover battle, which we lost 0-2 that game, I like our chances against Alabama in a first-to-40 kind of game.

 

[bukIpower]

Going off that sparty game though I feel we played tentative defensively. While we played lippett well we did nothing to force the issue against the run. We constantly asked our front 6 to stop the run. Notice I said front 6.

I feel Cook is 10 times the QB then Sims but we must stop their run game and it'll take more than 6 upfront to stop it. With Alabamas tendency to work the ball more so horizontally id hate to see us play off in a attempt to not give up the big hitter.

 

[SECorBust]

Or he's a human being, like someone who spells Christion's name wrong.

Fuck, I did that? At least it was only once.

Stewart has been hurt and was really added to the offense late to make up for the loss of Drake I think. Early in the season he played a reserve role. He's also pretty young and inexperienced (RS freshman) so they have brought him on slow.

OJ Howard played as a true freshman last year and he was far from perfect costing us a big RZ first down in the ironbowl last year that could have changed the game. We all expected him to have a bunch more targets this year in Kiffin's system. IDK if it's just been Blake, or the guys they match up on him or what. He slipped out for a nice big play against Mizzou.

I guess I meant just outside with Henry. He's a big guy, but he has 4.4 speed. He can turn the corner or take a toss outside and that's where he looks best.