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2012-13 Men's Basketball (B1G Tourney Champs, NCAA Elite Eight)

Diego-Bucks;2316874; said:
Seems reasonable to me. I think it's easy to question how the Buckeyes are going to overcome good inside play from the big guys in New Mexico and Gonzaga. We've done it well in some games (@Indiana) and poorly at others. If Amir Williams shows up to play 25 high-quality minutes, there's an answer.

Don't forget Rav. If Rav plays smart and doesn't try to be Horace Grant, Ohio State will be in good shape down low in tandem with Amir.
 
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VBSJ;2316881; said:
Anyone else notice Jerry Palm's RPI might be the outdated model.

I've been looking at numbers and RPI is usually the outlier when compared to Pomeroy or Sagarin (which are similar).

Scheduleball: Colorado State, Pitt exploit weaknesses of RPI

.../snip/...

The NCAA tournament selection committee uses the RPI formula to assess teams' non-conference strength of schedule (NCSOS). Two-thirds of RPI's NCSOS is based on the raw winning percentages of a team's opponents, and the other third is based on the raw winning percentages of opponents' opponents. A team vying for an at-large NCAA tournament bid is best off having a respectable NCSOS rank and a number of wins over RPI top-25, top-50 or top-100 teams. While the selection committee has stated that RPI is just one of many tools it uses, the fact remains that schedule strength is viewed predominantly through the RPI's lens.

The problem is that it's a warped lens. Seventy-five percent of the RPI formula is about strength of schedule (SOS), and because the RPI uses the flawed metric of raw winning percentage to assess SOS, it fails to provide a true measure of the quality of opponents. The truest measure available is kenpom.com's NCSOS ranking, which creates a pythagorean winning percentage based on opponents' adjusted efficiency, and even adjusts for home/neutral/road situations, which the SOS portion of RPI does not.

As one might expect, significant gaps sometimes exist between teams' NCSOS rankings according to kenpom.com and the RPI. And therein lies the exploitable opportunity: It's possible to obtain a high NCSOS according to RPI -- which is all that really matters -- without playing a non-conference schedule that's highly difficult.

RPI-savvy coaches have been manipulating schedules for years, but mostly with the goal of obtaining the highest RPI possible. Exploiting the efficiency-vs.-RPI gap is playing next-level Scheduleball. I've yet to hear a coach discuss doing this intentionally, but by creating and analyzing a database of the past five seasons of NCSOS data, I was able to identify two prime cases of Scheduleball success.

.../cont/...
 
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NastyNatiBuck;2316903; said:
Consider this. Losing on the road will help your RPI more than winning at home against the same team.

Thanks, because I was looking at rankings (for the bracket) and KenPom and Sagarin were very close on almost all of them.

Take New Mexico, for example. Ranked 17 for both KenPom and Sagarin, but No. 2 for RPI.
 
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When Ohio State’s season ended in the Final Four last year, coach Thad Matta said he turned the page quickly and began thinking about what the team would need to make another run. 

With Jared Sullinger and William Buford leaving the lineup and Deshaun Thomas the only proven scorer returning, he knew what it had to be. 

The defense, he said, would have to be “at an all-time high” to help the Buckeyes not only stop opponents from scoring but also convert those stops, as well as turnovers, into easy baskets for themselves.

“When we’ve done that,” Matta said recently, “we’ve been very, very good.”

The Buckeyes needed much of the season to figure that out consistently, but the defense they played down the stretch of the Big Ten schedule and in the conference tournament this past weekend has given them renewed optimism heading into the NCAA Tournament.

They were ranked No. 4 nationally before the season began, dipped as low as 18th when they lost three of four games in early February, and rose again, to No. 10, last week after winning their last five games of the regular season, including at No. 2 Indiana. The final Associated Press poll, released yesterday, has the Buckeyes at No. 7.

“I just think we have a better awareness for one another,” said Aaron Craft, who, along with fellow guard Shannon Scott, was voted by Big Ten coaches to the conference’s all-defensive team. “There was definitely a stretch this season where we went a little solo and we weren’t really connected on defense, and it only takes one or two guys to really mess up the entire possession, especially playing great teams.”

One of the tenets of Matta’s defensive philosophy is that the players defend as if they are linked. He calls it “five guys connected,” with players moving as if joined by a string, with one’s move causing another’s, resulting in another’s. At any given time, one defender is guarding the ballhandler, another is helping or ready to help on the ballhandler, and a third has one eye on the ballhandler.

“When we play as one defensive unit — when we’re rotating, when we’re pressuring the ball, when we’re jumping the passing lanes, when we’re helping each other — we’re a great defensive team,” guard Sam Thompson said. “When guys aren’t doing what they’re supposed to do — when I’m not worried about the guy next to me — that’s when we have some trouble.”
more
http://buckeyextra.dispatch.com/con...eyes-fate-hinges-on-defensive-dedication.html
 
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How Ohio State turned it around
A total mess just weeks ago, the Buckeyes are a title threat. What happened?
Updated: March 21, 2013
By John Gasaway | ESPN Insider

On Feb. 17, one month to the day before Selection Sunday, Ohio State lost to Wisconsin 71-49 in Madison. "We've seen the results if we're not going to play defensively," Buckeyes head coach Thad Matta said after the game. "We're not a good basketball team. If we're going to rely on trying to outscore people, that's not going to happen."

In the aftermath of that game, Ohio State was being projected as a No. 5 seed in the NCAA tournament, but apparently Matta's players took his words to heart. Since that day in Madison, OSU has reeled off eight straight wins. Today Matta's team is on the 2-line in the West Region, and the Buckeyes are a trendy pick to make it to the Final Four.

In other words, Ohio State has had one very good month. In my mind that raises two questions as the Buckeyes prepare to open the NCAA tournament against Iona in Dayton.

What happened, and can Matta's team keep it going?

cont...

http://insider.espn.go.com/colleges...-their-season-college-basketball?refresh=true
 
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The Buckeyes have climbed to fourth in Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency rating behind Florida, Louisville and Indiana. They’re peaking at the best possible time, obviously, and they have the easiest regional bracket left. The question now is: Are they even better than fans thought they would be? In November, this seemed to be as far as many thought they would get after they lost Jared Sullinger and William Buford and added no pop in recruiting. This is also the point where two of Matta’s better Ohio State teams, in 2010 and ’11, bit the dust. Is this team out of surprises?
http://buckeyextra.dispatch.com/content/stories/2013/03/26/another-sweet-16-for-buckeyes.html
 
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