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2011 Iditarod, who will finish first and second?

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BB73

BB73

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The race started on Saturday. The vBet will close in about 24 hours.

Here is a link to the Current Standings.

Since Mackey has won 4 in a row and is already in the lead, the vBet is for first AND second place.

NOTE - this vBet normally pays out before the NCAA Tournamnet bets are closed.
 
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Good call on bringing the 2nd place finisher into the bet. BUT, the only issue is assuming Mackey would be the only other person that would finish 2nd if someone else wins. So my only suggestion would be for someone other than Mackey winning, just having 2nd place be open for those guys. Cuz if I wanted to bet on someone else winning, I really have to hope Mackey finishes 2nd, or else it ends up being a field winner with really crappy odds.

Just saying...
 
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Piney;1884276; said:
Good call on bringing the 2nd place finisher into the bet. BUT, the only issue is assuming Mackey would be the only other person that would finish 2nd if someone else wins. So my only suggestion would be for someone other than Mackey winning, just having 2nd place be open for those guys. Cuz if I wanted to bet on someone else winning, I really have to hope Mackey finishes 2nd, or else it ends up being a field winner with really crappy odds.

Just saying...
Click to expand...

How about now? I was able to add lines and move things around since nobody had bet yet.
 
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Interesting race so far. 5-time champion Swenson apparently broke a collarbone, and was treated by a veterinarian, since they're a lot easier to find during this race. :biggrin:

4-time champion Martin Buser had 5 dogs get disconnected yesterday. They got tangled with another team that had a female in heat. Buser had to disconnect some of the team to get disentangled, and then some of the male dogs that started chasing the trail ahead. Ken Anderson actually recovered 3 of Buser's dogs, and attached them to his own team until the next checkpoint, where they were returned to Buser.

Buser lost about 30 minutes because of all that, but he was the first to reach Nikolai. But he's not really in the lead. Hugh Neff got there in less time, factoring in the staggered start. More on that later when I start tracking the contenders.

Link
 
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Time for an update. Current.Standings (which can be misleading).

Everybody has to take a 24-hour stop and an 8-hour stop at locations of their choosing, so until those stops even out, it's tough to tell who's really leading. There is an additional mandatory 8-hour stop which everybody has to take at White Mountain, 77 miles before the finish. The stops are for the dogs' safety, to minimize the risk of an overly aggressive (or overly tired and lacking in judgement) musher from running them too hard.

Most of the real contenders are currently in Takotna. They are taking a '24-hour' rest stop, which is actually 24 hours plus the time difference in the staggered start. They begin a couple of minutes apart, so the musher in bib #62 started 2 hours behind bib #2. To make that fair, at the 24-hour rest stop, the musher who started last can leave after exactly 24 hours, but the others have to wait 24 hours plus the amount of time that they left before the final musher started.

The bib diff column is calculated in comparison to #53 Baker, who has the highest number of the contending mushers I'll be tracking.

The ones who take the 24-hour rest at Takotna will probably zip right through Ophir, the next checkpoint (only a 25 mile leg); but almost all of them will stop at the next checkpoint, or on the trail (cabin or campsite) before they reach the town of Iditarod, which is 90 miles past Ophir.

Here are what I consider the real standings, as of arrival into Takotna. Nelson, Griffin, and Cim Smyth are on their way to Ophir, 25 miles ahead of Takotna. They arrived at Takotna behind the leaders, and only passed them due to taking a later 24-hour stop.

Place..Name....arrival at chkpoint..bib#-diff...net deficit..recent mph...prev net deficit
1..Buser.......Takotna..08:16 pm.....11...84....0 h 00 m.......7.71.............n/a
2..Schnuelle...Takotna..10:16 pm.....31...44....1 h 20 m.......6.84.............n/a
3..Mackey......Takotna..09:58 pm.....17...72....1 h 30 m.......7.25.............n/a
4..Neff........Takotna..10:31 pm.....35...36....1 h 43 m.......7.45.............n/a
5..Seavey, M...Takotna..10:37 pm.....28...50....1 h 47 m.......7.50.............n/a
6..Baker.......Takotna..11:48 pm.....53...00....2 h 08 m.......7.30.............n/a
7..Williams....Takotna..11:25 pm.....41...24....2 h 09 m.......7.71.............n/a
8..Gatt........Takotna..11:14 pm.....23...60....2 h 34 m.......7.40.............n/a
9..Redington...Takotna..10:35 pm.....03..110....2 h 35 m.......7.55.............n/a
10.Seavey, D...Takotna..11:20 pm.....21...64....2 h 44 m.......7.71.............n/a
11.Bundtzen....Takotna..10:50 pm.....10...86....3 h 12 m.......7.15.............n/a

Gebhardt has scratched from the race.

I won't keep track of anybody else ahead of the real leaders on the trail unless I see that somebody's within a couple hours of the leaders after he takes his own '24-hour' rest. After somebody takes his '24-hour' rest, the 'diff' column behind the bib# will go to zero, and will no longer affect the net deficit.
 
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Another update, after the real leaders (top-11 on this list) have all completed their 24-hour stop. I've switched the time to departure from the checkpoints, as it's a better indicator of who is leading for the last half of the race.

It's shaping up to be a pretty good race. One hour is almost nothing of a lead in this race, which takes about 9 days. Buser has won it 4 times in total, and Mackey the last 4 in a row. Schnuelle, Neff and Dallas Seavey have won the Yukon Quest recently, the next biggest sled dog race.

Place..Name....chkpoint.departure...bib#-diff...net deficit..recent mph...prev net deficit
1..Buser.......Ophir....12:15 am.....11...00....0 h 00 m......12.00.............0 h 00 m
2..Neff........Ophir....01:45 am.....35...00....1 h 30 m......10.95.............1 h 43 m
3..Mackey......Ophir....02:03 am.....17...00....1 h 48 m......10.95.............1 h 30 m
4..Schnuelle...Ophir....02:03 am.....31...00....1 h 48 m......09.68.............1 h 20 m
5..Williams....Ophir....02:37 am.....41...00....2 h 22 m......10.64.............2 h 09 m
6..Baker.......Ophir....02:39 am.....53...00....2 h 24 m......10.34.............2 h 08 m
7..Gatt........Ophir....03:08 am.....23...00....2 h 53 m......10.56.............2 h 34 m
8..Lindner.....Ophir....03:08 am.....52...00....2 h 53 m......10.79.............2 h 46 m
9..Redington...Ophir....03:15 am.....03...00....3 h 00 m......10.64.............2 h 35 m
10.Seavey, D...Ophir....03:16 am.....21...00....3 h 01 m......10.34.............2 h 44 m
11.Bundtzen....Ophir....??:?? am.....10...00....2 h 28 m......11.81.............3 h 12 m

Seavey and Bundtzen arrived in Ophir in 5th and 8th place respectively, but Seavey cut his hand while chopping up a bale of straw and a race marshall made him withdraw from the race. Bundtzen is resting in Ophir and has thus temporarily dropped in the standings.

Mitch Seavey joins Willomitzer and Gebhardt on the list of those who have scratched.

I normally don't track the number of dogs too closely, as it usually doesn't matter as much as it seems it should. But Mackey is down to 10 already (everybody starts with the max of 16, and you must still have 6 at the finish). There are reports that his dogs aren't eating well and seem lethargic and wheezy, do there could be some illness among his team. Other mushers will be wise to keep their dogs away from Mackey's team at the checkpoints and other stops along the trail.

It's a great opportunity for Buser to win his 5th, which would tie Rick Swenson for the all-time record. He would also become the first over the age of 50 to win it (he'll be 53 later this month). He would also tie the record for longest time between victories (Swenson's last 2 wins were 9 years apart).

Buser has the record for the fastest Iditarod: 8 days, 22 hrs, and 46 minutes, set in 2002. The conditions then are similar to this year and well-suited to his team; warm weather with a hard, fast trail.
 
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The leaders have all left Ophir. Should be a great race for a while, there are now 6 guys within an hour of each other, and 5 more within striking distance.

Sometimes the speed can be deceiving, since mushers can rest in cabins on the trail between checkpoints. It's obvious that Schnuelle and Seavey did that on their way into Ophir. But because they didn't rest as long in Ophir, they'll need to rest before the other teams. So teams will take turns being in the lead, depending on where they take their rest.

Place..Name....chkpoint.departure...net deficit..recent mph...prev net deficit
1..Schnuelle...Ophir....05:51 pm....0 h 00 m.......5.79.............1 h 48 m
2..Neff........Ophir....06:12 pm....0 h 21 m.......9.29.............1 h 30 m
3..Buser.......Ophir....06:32 pm....0 h 41 m.......8.63.............0 h 00 m
4..Baker.......Ophir....06:37 pm....0 h 46 m.......8.79.............2 h 24 m
5..Gatt........Ophir....06:45 pm....0 h 54 m.......9.02.............2 h 53 m
6..Mackey......Ophir....06:51 pm....1 h 00 m.......9.25.............1 h 48 m
7..Redington...Ophir....06:59 pm....1 h 08 m.......9.09.............3 h 00 m
8..Williams....Ophir....07:29 pm....1 h 38 m.......8.94.............2 h 22 m
9..Lindner.....Ophir....08:00 pm....2 h 09 m.......8.79.............2 h 53 m
10.Seavey, D...Ophir....08:08 pm....2 h 17 m.......7.41.............3 h 01 m
11.Smyth, R....Ophir....08:53 pm....3 h 02 m.......8.91.............3 h 56 m

Of the first 10 guys in the vBet, I bet on 7 of them to finish second behind Mackey. The 3 I didn't bet on have since been scratched from the race. Coincidence?
 
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iditarod-sled-dogs-squirrel-funny.jpg


The guy done a "caption this" to one picture; however, the link has some nice photos/stories of the race: http://onemansalaska.com/blog/2011/03/06/2011-iditarod-photos-funny-sled-dog-photo
 
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The front 9 have all left Shageluk.

Place..Name....chkpoint.departure...net deficit..recent mph...prev net deficit
1..Neff........Shageluk.02:05 am....0 h 00 m.......9.29.............1 h 21 m
2..Baker.......Shageluk.02:13 am....0 h 08 m.......8.79.............0 h 46 m
3..Mackey......Shageluk.02:48 am....0 h 43 m.......9.25.............1 h 00 m
4..Buser.......Shageluk.02:49 am....0 h 44 m.......7.86.............0 h 41 m
5..Redington...Shageluk.03:11 am....1 h 06 m.......9.09.............1 h 08 m
6..Lindner.....Shageluk.03:53 am....1 h 48 m.......8.32.............2 h 09 m
7..Schnuelle...Shageluk.04:08 am....2 h 03 m.......6.38.............0 h 00 m
8..Smyth, R....Shageluk.05:02 am....2 h 57 m.......8.16.............3 h 02 m
9..Gatt........Shageluk.05:24 am....3 h 19 m.......8.33.............0 h 54 m
10.Williams....Shageluk.08:03 am....5 h 58 m.......7.65.............1 h 38 m
11.Seavey, D...Shageluk.12:19 pm...10 h 14 m.......7.94.............2 h 17 m
 
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The front 9 have all left Anvik. Schnuelle and Gatt are out ahead, but they haven't yet taken the mandatory 8-hour stop and all of the others have. That will even up after they leave Grayling, where they are presumably taking their 8-hour stop. Seavey took his ahead of everybody else at Shageluk, which is why he temporarily showed a big deficit.

Place..Name....chkpoint.departure...net deficit..recent mph...prev net deficit
1..Schnuelle...Anvik....07:56 am....0 h 00 m.......6.28.............2 h 03 m
2..Gatt........Anvik....08:47 am....0 h 51 m.......7.71.............3 h 19 m
3..Neff........Anvik....01:26 pm....5 h 30 m.......7.46.............0 h 00 m
4..Baker.......Anvik....01:45 pm....5 h 49 m.......7.14.............0 h 08 m
5..Mackey......Anvik....02:13 pm....6 h 17 m.......7.32.............0 h 43 m
6..Redington...Anvik....02:39 pm....6 h 43 m.......7.21.............1 h 06 m
7..Buser.......Anvik....02:51 pm....6 h 55 m.......6.20.............0 h 44 m
8..Lindner.....Anvik....03:10 pm....7 h 14 m.......6.91.............1 h 48 m
9..Seavey, D...Anvik....03:34 pm....7 h 38 m.......7.73............10 h 14 m
 
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The front 9 have all left Grayling, and all have taken their mandatory 8-hour stop. Seavey's now probably too far behind.

Buser's age may be catching up to him. He's reported to have been napping while the team is running. I can relate. :wink2:

Place..Name....chkpoint.departure...net deficit..recent mph...prev net deficit
1..Neff........Grayling.04:12 pm....0 h 00 m.......6.59.............5 h 30 m
2..Baker.......Grayling.04:17 pm....0 h 05 m.......7.20.............5 h 49 m
3..Mackey......Grayling.04:50 pm....0 h 38 m.......7.01.............6 h 17 m
4..Redington...Grayling.05:13 pm....1 h 01 m.......7.06.............6 h 43 m
5..Buser.......Grayling.05:34 pm....1 h 22 m.......6.67.............6 h 55 m
6..Lindner.....Grayling.05:54 pm....1 h 42 m.......7.55.............7 h 14 m
7..Schnuelle...Grayling.06:48 pm....2 h 36 m.......6.28.............0 h 00 m
8..Smyth, R....Grayling.07:05 pm....2 h 53 m.......6.79.............8 h 28 m
9..Gatt........Grayling.07:07 pm....2 h 55 m.......7.71.............0 h 51 m
11.Seavey, D...Grayling.09:19 pm....5 h 07 m.......7.01.............7 h 38 m
 
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The front 10 have all left Eagle Island. Ramey Smith is moving up. Mackey looks like he's no longer racing to win.

I've added a column for rest at the last checkpoint. Often they rest on the trail, but when they all stop at a place, it can indicate who's gaining due to short rests. Baker's ahead of Neff because he stayed at Eagle Island a couple of hours less.

Place..Name....chkpoint.departure...net deficit..recent mph...prev net deficit..rest at chkpt
1..Baker.......Eag Islnd.4:05 am....0 h 05 m.......7.63.............0 h 05 m.....3:56
2..Schnuelle...Eag Islnd.6:38 am....2 h 33 m.......7.71.............2 h 36 m.....4:03
3..Neff........Eag Islnd.6:39 am....2 h 34 m.......7.30.............0 h 00 m.....6:14
4..Smyth, R....Eag Islnd.6:39 am....2 h 34 m.......7.96.............2 h 53 m.....4:02
5..Gatt........Eag Islnd.6:57 am....2 h 52 m.......8.16.............2 h 55 m.....4:29
6..Redington...Eag Islnd.7:29 am....3 h 24 m.......7.48.............1 h 01 m.....6:15
7..Lindner.....Eag Islnd.7:38 am....3 h 33 m.......7.20.............1 h 42 m.....5:24
8..Buser.......Eag Islnd.7:52 am....3 h 47 m.......6.55.............1 h 22 m.....5:08
10.Mackey......Eag Islnd.8:53 am....4 h 48 m.......7.39.............0 h 38 m.....7:56

 
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