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2009 Fighting Illini Game Preview

BB73

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2009 Fighting Illini Game Preview


Preface
Saturday marks the opening of conference play within the Big Ten. Since joining the Big Ten Conference in 1913, Ohio State is 69-23-4 in conference openers.
This will be Coach Jim Tressel's 300th career game as a head coach. Tressel is 85-20 in nine seasons at Ohio State and 220-77-2 in his 24th season overall. Crowds of more than 100,000 have seen the last 50 games at Ohio Stadium.

With their victory over TSUN last November, tOSU took over the best record among all-time conference games.

Highest winning %, Big Ten games only, all-time
tOSU: 447-164-24, 72.2835%
TSUN: 463-172-18, 72.1818%

Let's look at some history of championships in the Big Ten, since the Buckeyes can set some marks this year. Ohio State has won at least a share of the last four Big Ten Championships and will look to become the first school in conference history to win five or more straight crowns on multiple occasions during the 2009 campaign. The Buckeyes shared the crown with Penn State in 2005 and 2008 and ended the 2006 and 2007 seasons alone atop the standings to compile a Big Ten mark of 29-3 over the last four years. Ohio State has clinched four consecutive crowns for the first time since posting a Big Ten-record six straight titles from 1972-77. Michigan and Ohio State are the only two teams in Big Ten annals to post four or more consecutive first-place finishes on multiple occasions, accomplishing the feat a combined seven different times.

At least 5 straight Big Ten Football Titles:
6 - 1972-77 tOSU, under Woody Hayes
5 - 1988-92 TSUN, under Bo Schembechler and Gary Moeller

In his ninth season as the head coach at Ohio State, Jim Tressel is aiming to join an elite group of coaches to claim five straight Big Ten titles and six championships in his first nine campaigns. In the previous 113 years of Big Ten football, only one coach has finished atop the conference standings in five or more consecutive years, as the Buckeyes' Woody Hayes earned six straight crowns from 1972-77.

Most conference titles in first 9 years in the Big Ten:
7 - 1969-77 TSUN's Bo Schembechler (Woody won 9 from '68-'77, but he'd been around)
6 - 1932-49 Minnesota's Bernie Bierman

Multiple Big Ten Championships for Current Coaches:
5 - Jim Tressel, tOSU (2002, '05, '06, '07, '08)
3 - Joe Paterno, PSU (1994, 2005, '08)
2 - Kirk Ferentz, Iowa (2002, '04)

Additionally, here are the best regular season winning streaks ever for Big Ten teams, both overall and strictly in conference play.

Longest regular season winning streaks by Big Ten football teams:
28 games - 2005-07, Ohio State (snapped by Illinois)
28 games - 1950-53, Michigan State (joined conference in 1953)
28 games - 1901-03, Michigan
26 games - 1903-05, Michigan

Longest Big Ten winning streaks, conference games only:
20 games - 2005-07, Ohio State (snapped by Illinois)
19 games - 1990-92, Michigan

So the 2007 upset prevented tOSU from extending some significant Big Ten records, and some will be looking for payback with this visit. There have been some memorable battles with the Fighting Illini. One of them occurred in 1980, when Dave Wilson was unstoppable in the second half, and threw for a record 621 yards in a 49-42 Buckeye victory. That is still the most yards ever thrown by a Big Ten QB. Illinois got 659 yards of total offense that day, which is the most ever by a Buckeye opponent.

Another classic was the 1984 comeback, when a 24-0 deficit was wiped out when Keith Byars ran out of his shoe in the 'Shoe, with that TD making it 24-14, and another TD after Earle's successful decision to go with an onside kick got the Buckeyes within 24-21 at the half. The eventual 45-38 victory was pretty much a foregone conclusion at that point.

Other great memories against the Illini have to include the tOSU record 314 rushing yards that Eddie George racked up in his 1995 Heisman campaign; and the 2002 overtime nail-biter, with incompletions in both sides of the end zone, was just another close call for our most recent National Champions.

The Illini have won 3 of the last 4 contests in Columbus (and 7 of 10), including the 2007 shocker; but tOSU has won seven consecutive games in Champaign. That dates back to the stretch when Illinois had five straight wins from '88 to '92. Another of the recent Illlinois wins was in 2001, which was the Big-10 championship year for Illinois, when they lost to LSU in the Sugar Bowl in the first year that the Rose Bowl had the BCS NC game.

A tradition of 89 straight years with a tOSU-Illinois game was broken after the 2002 season. That started in 1914, which was the year that World War I began. To put 89 years into sports terms, that's longer than the Red Sox and the White Sox waited to win the World Series, but not as long as the Cubs.

1914 was also the first of 4 recognized NC's for Illinois. They won four of those between that year and 1927, all under Coach Robert Zuppke, who was there for 29 years, retiring just before Pearl Harbor. In the 1921 game in Columbus, Zuppke played only 11 men and utilized a new "drop back" pass defense to frustrate heavily favored tOSU 7-0. A Chicago sportswriter at the game was impressed with Illinois' determination, and when he called them he "Fighting Illini" in the Sunday Tribune, the nickname stuck.

Illinois coach Ron Zook was an Ohio State assistant from 1988-90. Saturday will be the third-consecutive week where Ohio State?s opposing head coach was a former Ohio State assistant.
Date and Time
Date: Saturday, September 26th, 2009
Time: 3:30 EDT Kick-off
Location: Ohio Stadium - "The Horseshoe" (Columbus, OH)
Constructed: 1922 (Renovated in 2001)
Seating Capacity: 102,329 (Originally 66,210)
Playing Surface: FieldTurf
Events: Hall of Fame Weekend; Earle Bruce will be the honorary captain.

Ohio State alumnus Tyson Gentry will be presented with the E. Gordon Gee Spirit of Ohio State Award at the 2009 Alumni Awards on Sept. 25 at the Hyatt Regency Columbus. This award is presented to Ohio State alumni who demonstrate a devotion to Ohio State and promote school spirit with integrity and honor in an effort to elevate the university and its history.

Broadcast Information:
TV Broacast: ABC (Big Ten area)/ESPN (elsewhere), Announcers: Ron Franklin (Play-by-play), and Ed Cunningham (Analysis), also ESPN360.com
Radio Broadcast: Ohio State Radio Network (WBNS 97.1 and 1460 TheFan in Columbus): Paul Keels (Play-by-play), Jim Lachey (Analysis), and Marty Bannister (Sideline), also Sirius Channel 123
2009 Fighting Illini Offensive Preview
Returning starters: 7
The Buckeyes open conference play with the Illini, a team that seems to cause headaches no matter how good or bad they might actually be. Add in the fact that Illinois has as much raw talent as any team in the conference, and one never knows what Illini team will show up or what the result will be. The Illini have been decimated by injuries at all of the skill positions thus far, and it is a good bet that after a bye week many of these players will be healthier and everyone will get a true look at where the Illinois offense really stands. Make no mistake, the Illini have played the Buckeyes tough the past 3 years, and this game will likely be no different.

It is very difficult, however, to know anything about the Illini thus far, given the fact they played poorly against Missouri then played I-AA (OK, FCS) foe Illinois State in their second game. Currently they rank 30th in yards per game (436.5), of which they have a nice balance of running (247.0, 13th) and passing (202.5, 86th) out of the spread, though they would doubtlessly like to improve upon that passing ranking. Their 27.0 points per game ranked tied for 65th, but again is little to go on. In 2 games, they have 41 total first downs and their 36.0% conversion rate on 3rd down ranks a rather unimpressive 72nd. This week will provide a much more clear picture of how the Illinois offense is running, but with the inconsistent and often erratic level of play over the Juice Williams/Ron Zook era, it's hard to know what to expect or even if whatever happens is actually representative or an anomaly. Whatever it is, it should be entertaining.

Quarterbacks
QB #7 Juice Williams (6-2, 235, SR, Chicago Vocational HS, Chicago, IL)

Williams entered the 2009 season, his final year in Champaign, with high expectations. He was coming off of a 2008 campaign that saw him pass for over 3000 yards, lead the team in rushing with 719 yards, and account for 27 total TDs. Was this going to be the season he put it all together and led the Illini on one final big run like their Rose Bowl season? Unfortunately, the season got off to a very rocky start, however. The Illini were blown out by Missouri, with Williams only throwing for 179 yards and a pick and only picking up 27 yards on 13 carries on the ground. Then, he had a quadriceps injury after 2 plays in the Illinois State game and didn't play the rest of the way (he didn't attempt a pass, though he had a run for 49 yards). There isn't much to say that hasn't been said already about Williams after 36 career starts. He has a strong arm, dynamic feet, makes a lot of big plays (44 career TD passes) and is a lot of fun to watch play. He also takes too many big losses, is inconsistent with his accuracy, and has too many turnovers (38 career INTs). He was 2nd team All-Big Ten last year and is on all of the major award watch lists this season. He has led an overachieving team to the Rose Bowl and has led an underachieving team to a losing record. The Juice Williams era has run the complete gamut, but it has sure been fun to watch, and he certainly has been one of the conference's most dynamic players. He also helped put Illinois "back on the map", so to speak, much like Derrick Williams did at Penn State. At the end of the day, Williams has been very, very good for Illinois, and he has one final chance at Ohio State to go out on a very high note.

Backing up Williams is veteran Eddie McGee (#10). He has never been able to supplant Williams at the top of the depth chart, but he has plenty of experience over the last 2 years at QB and at WR on a more limited basis. He is a player in the same mold as Williams, with many of the same talents. He led the victory over Illinois State, completing 13 of 17 for 164 yards and a TD and adding 55 yards and 2 TDs on the ground. If Williams aggravates his injury, McGee could very well see the field, and he will be more than capable of holding his own.

QB Rating: B

Head-to-Head: Illinois versus Ohio State QBs

Williams: 18/28 (64.3%), 179 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 110.8 rating; 14/76, 0 TDs

Pryor: 42/74 (56.8%), 613 yards, 4 TDs, 4 INTs, 133.4 rating; 28/176, 2 TDs

Williams has doubtlessly produced many of the same headaches, infighting, thrilling wins, amazing plays, and unfortunate letdowns within the Illini faithful as Pryor and other QBs have done for the Buckeye faithful. It will be interesting to see how his career is measured as time goes on, as there were too many amazing wins and losses to inferior teams to evaluate fully while he is still there. No doubt the Williams era has been one of the most interesting in the Big Ten in recent memory, and as it comes to a close, it appears that Pryor is a player in the same mold with his amazing talent. The question is whether Pryor is better now or will be better in the future than Williams is or has been. Williams is doubtlessly a dynamic talent and one of college football's more exciting players, but his tenure has been plagued by bad games, an occasionally erratic passing game, and too many turnovers to go along with the breathtaking runs and big victories (Ohio State, Michigan). Williams is coming off of an injury, so it will be interesting to see how well he is feeling, especially running the football, whereas Pryor is coming off of a game where he and the offense finally took control of a game, hitting some big pass plays along the way to go with his strong running skills. Look for Williams to make a splash as he tries to rekindle his old magic in his last game against Ohio State, but give a slight edge to Pryor based on where the two players are currently. McGee is a capable and experienced backup, so the Illini have a strong edge in depth, and in fact McGee may see the field if Williams is not feeling up to par. Overall, it is too close to call, given the experience Williams has and his penchant for playing big in big games, but Pryor looks like he could eventually become a better version.

Edge: Even

Running Backs
TB #22 Daniel Dufrene (5-11, 205, SR, Stranahan HS, Ft. Lauderdale, FL)
TB #21 Jason Ford (6-0, 230, SO, Althoff HS, Belleville, IL)
TB #5 Mikel Leshoure (6-0, 225, SO, Centennial HS, Champaign, IL)

The Illinois running back position is somewhat muddled, as 3 players can start and none seem to be dominant. The veteran of the group is Dufrene, who started 7 games in 2008. He missed the opener with an ankle injury, then was limited to 5 carries last week, albeit for 61 yards and a score. Dufrene doesn't seem to be a dominant player, though he has reasonable size and speed, but he is a solid back and is a dual threat, as he gained 663 yards on the ground on 5.7 YPC in 2008 and chipped in 30 catches. He has just 8 career TDs (6 on the ground), so scoring has not been his forte. He does have lots of experience and brings good leadership to the position. Ford is a bruiser who started 4 games last year. He was injured after a single carry in the opener, but bounced back for an 11 carry, 137 yard day against Illinois State, also chipping in a TD and 2 receptions. He gained 294 yards and scored 8 times in 2008, so he is more of a force in short yardage and red zone situations. He rushed for 43 yards and caught 2 passes against the Buckeyes last year. LeShoure sat out last week for violating team rules, but carried the load when the Illini were thin in the opener, gaining 38 yards and scoring a TD on the ground and chipping in 3 catches for 41 yards. He is similar in size to Ford and could be a factor in the red zone as well. All in all, this corps doesn't have a dominant player, but it has a few role players who are capable of contributing in the right situations.

Sophomore Troy Pollard (#29) is next on the chart. He had 5 carries in each game, for a total of 64 yards, so he could easily get a series or two on Saturday. True freshman Greg Fuller (#41) is the only fullback on the roster when the Illini turn to one, which is relatively rarely.

RB Rating: C-

Head-to-Head: Illinois versus Ohio State RBs

Ford: 11/137 yards, 1 TD, 12.5 YPC; 2 rec/26 yards, 0 TDs, 13.0 YPR
Dufrene: 5/61 yards, 1 TD, 12.2 YPC; 1 rec/6 yards, 0 TDs, 6.0 YPR
Leshoure: 10/38 yards, 1 TD, 3.8 YPC; 3 rec/41 yards, 0 TDs, 13.7 YPR

Herron: 50/158 yards, 3 TDs, 3.2 YPC; 5 rec/34 yards, 0 TDs, 6.8 YPR
Saine: 19/100 yards, 0 TDs, 5.3 YPC; 6 rec/72 yards, 0 TDs, 12.0 YPR
Hall: 7/44 yards, 0 TDs, 6.3 YPC; 0 rec/0 yards, 0 TDs, 0.0 YPR

None of the Illini backs really jumps out as a difference maker. Dufrene is a veteran who can have a good game here and there, but he and many of the other backs have been slowed by injuries and none seems to establish themselves as a top shelf player. It is telling that Williams led the team in rushing in 2008 in that regard. The Buckeyes also lack a true dominant back, but Herron is getting regular work with some success and Saine in particular has been really good off the bench when he has gotten his opportunities. This game will not resemble Wells versus Mendenhall, but look for the Buckeyes to have more success.

Edge: Ohio State

Wide Receivers
WR #9 Arrelious Benn (6-2, 220, JR, Dunbar HS, Washington, DC)
WR #17 Jeff Cumberland (6-5, 255, SR, Brookhaven HS, Columbus, OH)
WR #11 Jarred Fayson (6-0, 215, JR, Hillsborough HS, Tampa, FL)
WR #8 A.J. Jenkins (6-0, 185, SO, Terry Parker HS, Jacksonville, FL)

This team is deep and talented at the WR position, but the play is sometimes inconsistent. Benn is clearly the biggest weapon, garnering 1st team All-Big Ten honors last year and looking absolutely dominant at times. He has started 26 games, catching 67 passes for 1055 yards and 3 scores last season after gaining 676 yards as a freshman. He seems to bounce between monster games and games where he seems to disappear somewhat, and this season he is off to a very slow start, with only 1 catch in 2 games, though he did play in only the first series in the opener before being slowed by an ankle injury. He is on all of the major award watch lists and could easily get it going again if Williams is healthy and the passing game takes better shape. He had 3 catches for 65 yards against Ohio State last season after making just 1 catch against the Buckeyes in 2006. Cumberland is a program veteran and huge target who is especially deadly over the middle and in the red zone. He began his career as a TE and has 10 career starts. Despite his menacing size, he has never had a breakout season, with career highs of only 20 catches, 352 yards, and 4 TDs, all last season. He has 2 catches thus far in 2009. Fayson is an intriguing former 5-star recruit who transferred from Florida and sat out last season. He has 4 catches in each of the first 2 games to his credit, making him one of the more consistent performers thus far in 2009, and has the size and speed to be a very effective receiver. He looks to have tremendous upside. Jenkins played in all 12 games as a true freshman last year, starting one. He has played in both games but is yet to record a catch.

There is plenty of depth behind the starters as well. Senior veteran Chris Duvalt (#15) has good speed and is 2nd in catches and yards in the receiving corps thus far. Freshman Jack Ramsey (#19), sophomores Cordale Scott (#1) and Fred Sykes (#82), and junior Chris James (#6) round out the chart.

WR Rating: C

Head-to-Head: Illinois versus Ohio State WRs

Fayson: 8 catches, 89 yards, 0 TDs, 11.1 YPR
Duvalt: 3 catches, 43 yards, 1 TD, 14.3 YPR
Cumberland: 2 catches, 27 yards, 0 TDs, 13.5 YPR
Benn: 1 catch, 9 yards, 0 TDs, 0.0 YPR

Sanzenbacher: 9 catches, 241 yards, 3 TDs, 26.8 YPR
Posey: 13 catches, 141 yards, 1 TD, 10.8 YPR
Carter: 5 catches, 42 yards, 0 TDs, 8.4 YPR

Benn is far and away the biggest talent in this group, but his production has been somewhat sporadic over his career and he has been slowed by an injury this season thus far. Behind Benn, no one really stands out. Fayson seems to have a lot of promise, but Cumberland has never really turned into a regular contributor and many of the rest of the players are unproven. The Buckeyes also have relatively young and unproven receivers, but Sanzenbacher has established himself as a very legitimate weapon and Posey has made some very nice catches thus far. Carter is a star in the making as well. The Buckeyes won't throw as many players out there, but they have established themselves to be better so far with their production in 2009 to this point.

Edge: Ohio State

Tight Ends
TE #16 Michael Hoomanawanui (6-5, 270, SR, Central Catholic HS, Bloomington, IL)

The big man is a monster to try and cover and is also a very good blocker. He was honorable mention All-Big Ten last year and is very capable of improving that this season. He caught 25 passes for 312 yards and 2 TDs last year, and is off to a reasonable start this year, with 4 catches for 53 yards. He is a key element in both the passing and running games, and fills his role very nicely. He is also a valuable weapon over the middle when plays break down and Williams scrambles. Sophomore Hubie Graham (#83) is the backup.

TE Rating: B+

Head-to-Head: Illinois versus Ohio State TEs

Hoomanawanui: 4 catches, 53 yards, 0 TDs, 13.3 YPR

Ballard: 4 catches, 55 yards, 0 TDs, 13.8 YPR

Hoomanawanui is a good receiver and a road-grader of a blocker. He is an excellent player who will contend for conference honors. Ballard is also a solid player, but give the edge to the Illini TE, who gets used quite a bit more in the passing game.

Edge: Illinois

Offensive Line
LT #71 Jeff Allen (6-5, 310, SO, King HS, Chicago, IL)
LG #66 Randall Hunt (6-6, 320, JR, Hightstown HS, Hightstown, NJ)
C #62 Eric Block (6-3, 290, SR, Jesuit HS, New Orleans, LA)
RG #52 John Asamoah (6-5, 315, SR, Rich East HS, Park Forest, IL)
RT #78 Ryan Palmer (6-7, 310, JR, Glen Oak HS, Canton, OH)

The Illini are strong up front and are capable blockers in the spread offense. There is quite a bit of experience and leadership here, starting with Asamoah. He was honorable mention All-Big Ten last year, and has 27 consecutive starts at guard. He is a big, strong player with good footwork who can be a good pulling guard and is also adept at pass blocking. Also in the interior, Block has 14 starts to his credit, 12 at guard last year before moving to center this year. He is a versatile and mobile player who can play all along the interior. This is the first year starting for Hunt, a very big and physical guard who has settled in on the left side. At tackle, Allen has started 11 games in his career, earning several All-freshman accolades last season. He is a solid player with tremendous upside who should have a very good career at the LT spot. Canton product Palmer started 3 games last season before being slowed with an injury for the remainder of 2008. He is a very tall and athletic tackle who has settled in on the right side.

The backups are a collection of young players, with sophomores Craig Wilson (#79) and Corey Lewis (#70) manning the tackle spots and freshmen Graham Pocic (#76) and Tyler Sands (#61) along the interior. Sophomore Jack Cornell (#73) and junior Anterio Jackson (#55) round out the chart.

OL Rating: B-

Head-to-Head: Illinois versus Ohio State OL

The Illini have some experience up front, but the offense has not been able to get going so far and Illinois was manhandled in the opener by Missouri. It is imperative for the line to protect Williams, particularly with Juice and many of the other skill players coming off of injuries. The Buckeyes finally showed flashes of what Buckeye fans have been hoping for last week, but the running game still isn't where it needs to be and Pryor is still pressured far too often, which is bad given his issues with throwing the football under duress. Still, the Buckeyes are high on talent and raw potential, so give the edge to the Ohio State.

Edge: Ohio State

Overall Offensive Analysis

Overall Analysis: On talent, Illinois is as good as any team in the conference. But everyone knows talent only carries a team so far, especially against high quality opposition. The Illini have been hurt by injuries at all of their skill positions and have not played against FBS competition since opening weekend. It is difficult to see the offense firing on all cylinders given those conditions. There is no doubt that Williams has played well in the past against the Buckeyes, and that Illinois has played Ohio State as tough as anyone over the past 3 seasons. However despite the tremendous talent at the skill positions, it is not likely that Illinois will have one of their best games Saturday, even if they give an overwhelming effort. This offense may be very good by the end of the season, but as of right now, they are far from maximizing their potential for a variety of reasons, many of which have been out of their control.

Overall Offensive Rating: B-
2009 Fighting Illini Defensive Preview
Returning Starters: 5
Co-Defensive Coordinators Dan Disch and Curt Mallory are together again coordinating Illinois 4-3 base. Disch graduated from Florida State in 1981 and is now in his 5th season with Illinois after following Zook from Florida where he helped rebuild the 2004 Gator's secondary. At Illinois he first coached the Special Teams and now also coaches the LBs along with his Coordinator responsibilities. Mallory, also in his 5th season with the Illini and 3rd as Co-Defensive Coordinator, is also responsible for the Defensive backs. A two-time letterman at Michigan, Mallory graduated in 1990 after being on 4 Big Ten Championship teams. Mallory would win a 5th Big Ten Crown as a Graduate Assistant (1992). With a focus on being an aggressive, play-making group, the Illini have had some growing pains in 2008 as they struggled to replace several outgoing Seniors, including LB J Leman and SS Kevin Mitchell. This season the Illini defense has to unexpectedly replace MLB Martez Wilson who has suffered a season ending neck injury, along with departed seniors DE David Lindquist and LB's Brit Miller and Rodney Pittman, and departed Junior CB Vontae Davis.

Stats.......|Score..|Tot.Yds..|Rush..|Pass..|INT.| Fum.|Sack.|1stD..|3rd D..|PCT...|Red Zone.|PCT.|RZ TDs.|PCT.|TOF..|
Illinois....|.27.0..|..420.0..|.80.7.|339.5.|.2..|..1..|.4...|.42...|16-33..|48%...|.5-6.....|83%.|..4-6..|67%.|30:27|
Ohio State..|.15.0..|..288.3..|105.7.|182.7.|.3..|..3..|.6...|.46...|17-43..|40%...|.5-5.....|100%|..4-5..|80%.|28:17|

* TOF = Time on Field (Opponent's T.O.P)

With two out-of-conference games under their belt, a 37-9 loss to Missouri and a 45-17 win over Illinois State, Illinois has struggled on the defensive side of the ball. Entering Big Ten play, Illinois is 10th in the league in points allowed at 27 per game, while Ohio State ranks 3rd giving up 15. Likewise, the Illini are 10th in the league in total yards allowed (420.0) while the Buckeyes yield just 228.3. Last week the Buckeyes held the number 1 offense in the nation (at the time) Toledo Rockets to some 350 yards below their average. While the Illini have been stout against the run, giving up 80.7 per game (3rd in the Big Ten), one wonders if the success teams have enjoyed through the air might be the reason. Illinois has yielded a league worst 339.5 yards to opponents via the air, while the Buckeyes enter the game fifth in the league in pass defense yards against (182.7) and 5th against the rush (105.7). In fairness to Illinois, however, the data is based on only two games and may look worse that it is. Nonetheless, Illinois State managed 354 passing yards in week two, a week after affording Missouri 325, and that has got to cause Illini fans serious concern in this young season.

Defensive Line
LE #90 Antonio James (6-5, 255, Sr.)
LT #92 Josh Brent (6-2, 315, Jr.)
RT #56 Sirod Williams (6-0, 295, Sr.)
RE #95 Doug Pilcher (6-5, 265, Sr.)

As alluded to above, it may be that teams are having success through the air, which accounts for the 80.7 yards the defense give up on the ground. However, it might also be that Illinois returns 2 starters off of the 2008 line (Sirrod Williams would have been included as a returning starter, however he ended up with a knee injury and took a medical redshirt), with only James being the new face. James depends on quickness most of the time, but is strong enough to handle some inside assignments as well. While he only made 5 tackles and a sack last year, Illinois anticipates solid production from him this season. He has only 2 tackles thus far. Williams, again returning from an ACL injury, has not recorded a tackle thus far. Pilcher is not the most spectacular pass rusher, but he's strong and productive. After a decent 2008, Pilcher begins 2009 with 7 tackles, 2 for loss and a sack, and also has a 41 yard INT return. The inside is anchored by junior Josh Brent, who provides plenty of bulk to plug up the middle. Despite having an off the field problem leading to a suspension from spring ball, Brent has returned to record 4 stops, 3 for loss.

Backups include: Ends #97 Clay Nurse (6-3, 260, Jr.), #47 Glenn Foster (6-4, 270, R-Fr.), and #85 Whitney Mercilus (6-3, 255, R-Fr.), and Tackles, #30 Rahkeem Smith (6-1, 265, Sr.), and #93 Corey Liuget (6-3, 290, So.). Nurse has played well this young season where he has recorded 7 tackles with 1.5 for loss while the highly touted Corey Liuget pushes for more and more time as well. Liuget brings excellent quickness to the inside and has recorded 7 tackles, 2.5 for loss with a sack. Mercilus and Smith each have one tackle, while Foster has yet to record a tackle.

DL Rating: B+

Head-to-Head: Illinois versus OSU DL

As mentioned above, Illinois has been more impressive against the run, but one wonders if that's because moving the ball through the air has been easy to accomplish. The Illini line has only recorded 2 sacks and 2 QB Hurries suggesting struggles in getting to the QB, while the Buckeyes front 4 has been disruptive for two weeks - recording just 3 sacks, but also several QB hurries. Both teams have excellent size and quickness and both units are the relative strength of their overall defense. Still, Heyward and Larimore combined have just two less stops than all of Illinois linemen together, including the reserves - though in one more game to consider. While the Buckeyes have been stopping the likes of USC, always run strong Navy, and a pass happy Toledo, Illinois has been embarrassed by Missouri. The edge goes to Ohio State here.

Edge: Ohio State

Linebackers
SLB #38 Ian Thomas (6-0, 225, So.)
MLB #51 Evan Frierson (6-2, 225, R-Fr.)
WLB #18 Nate Bussey (6-2, 220, Jr.)

The Illinois LB corps suffered a significant blow when it was revealed they would be without the services of MLB Martez Wilson for the remainder of 2009. Wilson had 9 tackles against Missouri and was expected to be the unit's top playmaker. Now the unit's success will fall on the quick development of Evan Frierson as Illinois tries different LB combinations. Undersized in the middle, Frierson has one tackle in 2009. Thomas may get the start in the middle, which is where he was listed as the number 1 this past spring. Quick and athletic, the safety-like Thomas leads the Illini with 17 tackles and has 2 TFLs and a sack. Bussey is listed as the WLB and has recorded 3 tackles thus far after playing the role of a solid reserve last season.

Reserves #33 Russell Ellington (6-2, 225, So.), and #42 Aaron Gress (6-0, 230, Jr.) provide the depth. Ellington will play often and may even start, depending on how the staff feels about Frierson and the various options available with the bodies they have available. A speedy guy with good range, Ellington spent last season mostly on special teams. He has 8 tackles and a 78 yard INT return this season. Gress has 3 tackles thus far.

LB Rating: C+


Head-to-Head: Illinois versus OSU LBs

If not for the loss of Wilson, the LB grade would surely be higher. As it is, however, the LBs have struggled in passing situations despite being a unit of guys built more like safeties. While the defense has performed well against the run, it remains to be seen if the LBs can plug up a power run team. Ohio State is led by playmaker Brian Rolle, who leads the team with 25 tackles, followed by Ross Homan's 20. As a unit, the Buckeyes are young - like Illinois - but seem to have far more depth at the positions with guys like Etienne Sabino and Andrew Sweat seeing action, to say nothing of top recruits like Dorian Bell who wait their turn. Because the Buckeyes have been more productive and appear to have more "sure thing" depth, the edge goes to the Buckeyes.

Edge: Ohio State

Secondary
RCB #3 Tavon Wilson (6-0, 195, So.)
FS #4 Donsay Hardeman (6-2, 210, Sr.)
SS #20 Garrett Edwards (6-2, 210, Jr.)
LCB #28 Dere Hicks (5-10, 175, Sr.)

The secondary returns 3 starters from last year, though Bellamy - who started at strong safety in '08 - is now Tavon Wilson's backup at corner. Wilson is stepping in for the departed Vontae Davis who was as good a corner as Illinois has ever had. Wilson has great speed to go along with his size and, while not the corner Davis was, should be solid enough. He has 13 stops with .5 TFLs thus far in 2009. The other corner position will be once again manned by Hicks, a solid pass defender who also has shown the ability to make the play when opponents run. He has 7 stops, 1 for loss and 2 pass breakups this season. Hardeman was a JUCO transfer who is versatile enough to play each of the secondary positions. A big hitter who started 8 games last year, Hardeman has 10 stops with half a TFL thus far. Edwards is a sound defender, known more for covering a nice chunk of ground despite a relative lack of speed. He leads the secondary with 15 stops (2nd on the team) and has the Illini's lone fumble recovery.

Reserves are: Corners #6 Joelil Thrash (6-0, 185, Fr.), and #31 Travon Bellamy (6-0, 205, Jr.), and Safety #24 Bo Flowers (6-2, 215, Jr.). Bellamy started 11 games for the Illini last season, making 53 tackles but had no INTs. He'll be on the field in nickel situations and has 9 tackles, 2 for loss and a sack in 2009. Flowers has 2 tackles, while Thrash has yet to record any statistics.

DB Rating: B


Head-to-Head: Illinois versus OSU DBs

Both secondaries lost their top cover corners from last season with Vontae Davis and Malcolm Jenkins both going to the NFL. Despite three returnees with starting experience, however, the Illini secondary has been carved up in both games of 2009. Meanwhile, Ohio State all but completely shut down a high powered Toledo passing game last week, after also having success against USC the week before. The Buckeyes appear to be the deeper unit as well. Owing to the huge disparity in the numbers, giving the edge to Ohio State is a virtual no brainer. However, in 2007 the Buckeyes were also some 100 yards per game better than the Illini and the Illinois secondary proved to be perfectly able that day.

Edge: Ohio State

Overall Defensive Analysis

It has only been two games, and as a consequence the numbers might change dramatically before all is said and done. Still, giving up nearly 350 yards through the air is a serious cause for concern for a experienced group like Illinois. Losing Martez Wilson hurts the Illini stopforces more than a little bit, though the defense is still sporting more athletes than only a few years ago. The Buckeyes have had some trouble establishing a ground game, and that seems to play into the Illini strength. Both units will be facing mobile QBs in Juice Williams and Terrelle Pryor and much will depend on line and linebacker play this Saturday. Overall, both Illinois and Ohio State rely on their lines to be the strength of the defenses. The Buckeyes line has been more disruptive, though it has given up more rushing yardage (bear in mind, OSU played run heavy Navy in the opener) and the Buckeye linebackers has been more productive as well. The Illini group needs to demonstrate some significant improvement, specifically in pass defense. There is the talent to do so, but until then, questions will remain.

Overall Defensive Rating: B
2009 Fighting Illini Special Teams Preview
Punting: #57, 7 for 258, 36.86
Punt returns: #98, 3 for 10 yds, 3.33 avg
Kickoff returns: #91, 12 for 230 19.17 avg
Punt defense: #18, 2 for 3 yds, 1.5 avg
Kickoff defense: #29, 10 for 189 18.9 avg, 1 touchback

The Ohio State Buckeyes open Big 10 play by hosting the Fighting Illini from the University of Illinois. The Illini bring a solid defense and a so-so offense in their special teams into Ohio Stadium this Saturday. But for the 4th consecutive week, the nod has to go to the Buckeyes in this category.

Special Teams
P #87 Anthony Santella (6-2, 190, Sr., Wauconda HS, Wauconda, IL),
PK #84 Matt Eller (6-2, 210, So., Bishop Kanney HS, Jacksonville, FL)
PR #11 Jarred Fayson (6-0, 215, Jr., Hillsborough HS, Tampa, FL)
PR #19 Jack Ramsey (5-11, 190, So., Simeon HS, Chicago, IL)
KR #8 A.J. Jenkins (6-0, 185, So., Terry Parker HS, Jacksonville, FL)
KR #9 Arrelious Benn (6-2, 220, Jr., Dunbar HS, Washington, D.C.)
LS #45 Tad Keely (6-1, 225, Sr., Oswego HS, Oswego, IL)
Hldr #87 Anthony Santella (6-2, 190, Sr., Wauconda HS, Wauconda, IL)

It is difficult to gauge a unit's success after a game (or two) but 4 games into the season tends to expose trends. Like most teams, frankly, the Illini don't emphasize special teams play like the Buckeyes do under Jim Tressel, and it shows. Offensively, Illinois ranks in the bottom half of teams in the NCAA in punt returns, kickoff returns and punting. While this really didn't come into play against Missouri and Illinois State, it may as the Illini find themselves in tight conference games. Their special teams' defense has been good, ranking in the top third in both kickoff and punt return defense. Look for Ohio State to win the special teams battle for the 4th consecutive week.

ST Rating: C-

Head-to-Head: Jenkins/Benn vs Ohio State Kickoff Return Defense

Benn is a dangerous runner and will have to be kept from breaking out. The Buckeye kickoff return defense has been solid, allowing 19.13 yds per return. This will be the closest battle in the special teams war for this game.

Edge: Even

Head-to-Head: Fayson/Ramsey vs Ohio State Punt Return Defense

Illinois is loaded with athletes. The Illini special teams are no exception. Fayson and Ramsey have the skills to break one, so the Buckeyes need to be on their toes. Ohio State to date has only allowed 1 punt returned for a measly 3 yards.

Edge: Ohio State

Head-to-Head: Small/Sanzenbacher/Posey vs Illinois Punt Return Defense

As noted above, the Illinois special team defense squads do a better job than the offensive ones do. The Illini currently rank 18th in the nation having allowed only 2 returns for 3 yds. The Buckeyes have only returned 9 punts for 36 yds. Small has yet to break one, look for that to change this Saturday.

Edge: Ohio State

Head-to-Head: Thomas/Saine/Herron vs Illinois Kickoff Return Defense

The Illini are allowing a decent 18.9 yds per kickoff return. The Buckeyes have greatly improved this statistic over the last couple of years having returned 9 kicks for 244 yds (27.11 avg). Look for Ohio State to continue their improvement in this area.

Edge: Ohio State

Overall Special Teams Analysis

Illinois has the athletes to be successful in the area of special teams play, but the results on the field do not reflect this. A Jim Tressel coached team will ALWAYS do well in this area. If the game is tight, look for this to be a deciding factor.

Overall Special Teams Rating: C-
Predictions
BB73's prediction: 31-17, Ohio State
Buckeyeskickbuttocks' prediction: 34-17, Ohio State
Bucklion's prediction: 23-17, Ohio State
Bucky Katt's prediction: 27 -17, Ohio State
DaddyBigBucks's prediction: 42-13, Ohio State
jwinslow's prediction: 31-17, Ohio State
JCOSU86's prediction: 34-3, Ohio State

Low score wins the year long battle of prediction supremacy! (Difference of actual scores versus predicted scores. 10 point penalty for picking the losing team.)

Previous Game's Results (tOSU 38, Toledo 0)

(54) BB73's prediction: 38-20, Ohio State (20 + 34 last week = 54)
(56) Bucky Katt's prediction: 37-20, Ohio State (21 + 35 last week = 56)
(56) JCOSU86's prediction: 48-7, Ohio State (17+ 39 last week = 56)
(66) jwinslow's prediction: 42-21, Ohio State (25+ 41 last week = 66)
(72) Buckeyeskickbuttocks' prediction: 54-10, Ohio State (26 + 46 last week = 72)

(77) Bucklion's prediction: 48-28, Ohio State (38 + 39 last week = 77)
(79) DaddyBigBucks's prediction: 42-17, Ohio State (21 + 58 last week = 79)

Adjusted scores for weeks missed. Participant must take the highest score from the week they missed.

 
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BB73;1548772; said:
Edge: Ohio State

Head-to-Head: Small/Sanzenbacher/Posey vs Illinois Punt Return Defense

As noted above, the Illinois special team defense squads do a better job than the offensive ones do. The Illini currently rank 18th in the nation having allowed only 2 returns for 3 yds. The Buckeyes have only returned 3 punts for 9 yds. Small has yet to break one, look for that to change this Saturday.

Edge: Ohio State



Are you sure that's right?

BB73 edit - Good catch - I've changed it to 9 for 36.
 
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token reply of appreciation because A) these previews always rock and I appreciate them and B) I replied last week and we went on to win easily and record the shut out...never mess with a winning streak.

:osu:
 
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LitlBuck;1549099; said:
HOLD ON LITLBUCK, AND IMMA LET YOU FINISH - BUT THE BUCKNUTS PEOPLE ARE THE BEST AT TALKING ABOUT THE GAMES AND SHIT! Thanks to all of you for putting these up every week. They are very easy to read and your analysis is always very insightful. Your time and effort is greatly appreciated.
FIFY :p
 
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Typo

Got a typo on the date and time. Normally I wouldn't point out a typo, but Illinois and 2007 is some bad mojo.

BB73;1548772; said:
Date and Time
Date: Saturday, September 22nd, 2007
Time: 3:30 EDT Kick-off
Location: Ohio Stadium - "The Horseshoe" (Columbus, OH)
Constructed: 1922 (Renovated in 2001)
Seating Capacity: 102,329 (Originally 66,210)
Playing Surface: FieldTurf

Great write up though. I always look forward to these each week.
 
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