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2009 B10 Bowl lineup

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Gatorubet said:
Does anyone have the rankings, as in SEC 3 versus Big-10 2, ACC 3 versus Big-East 2, or whatever?
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Ohio State/Oregon- Big10 #1 vs. Pac10 #1
Iowa/Georgia Tech- Big10 #2 vs. ACC #1
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Wisconsin/Miami- Big10 #5 vs. ACC #4 (?)
Minnesota/Iowa St.- Big10 #8 vs. Big12 #8 (?)
Northwestern/Auburn- Big10 #4 vs. SEC #8 (?)
Penn St./Louisiana St.- Big10 #3 vs. SEC #3
Mich St./Texas Tech- Big10 #6 vs. Big12 #4

(?)- not sure where they are placed due to split divisions and equal records, but took my best guess based on overall record, rankings, and bowl placement. If there's a better way to figure it out, I don't know it. :)

edit- dang, got sidetracked and NateG beats me by a mile.
 
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Gatorubet;1616882; said:
Does anyone have the rankings, as in SEC 3 versus Big-10 2, ACC 3 versus Big-East 2, or whatever?
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Just based on the won/loss records in conference play the bowl matchups look like this:



Rose: Ohio State (7-1) vs. Oregon (8-1); . . . . . Big 10 #1 vs. Pac10 #1.

Orange: Iowa (6-2) vs. Georgia Tech (7-1); . . . Big 10 #2(tie) vs. ACC #1.

Cap One: Penn St. (6-2) vs. LSU (5-3); . . . . . . Big 10 #2(tie) vs. SEC #3.

Champs Sports: Wisconsin (5-3) vs. Miami (5-3); Big 10 #4 (tie) vs. ACC #4 (tie).

Outback: Northwestern (5-3) vs. Auburn (3-5); . .Big 10 #4 (tie) vs. SEC #7 (tie).

Alamo: MSU (4-4) vs.Texas Tech (4-4); . . . . . . .Big 10 #6 (tie) vs. Big 12 #4 (tie).

Insight: Minnesota (3-5) vs. Iowa St. (3-5); . . . . Big 10 #8 vs. Big 12 #8 (tie).
 
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gracelhink;1616991; said:
Just based on the won/loss records in conference play the bowl matchups look like this:



Rose: Ohio State (7-1) vs. Oregon (8-1); . . . . . Big 10 #1 vs. Pac10 #1.

Orange: Iowa (6-2) vs. Georgia Tech (7-1); . . . Big 10 #2(tie) vs. ACC #1.

Cap One: Penn St. (6-2) vs. LSU (5-3); . . . . . . Big 10 #2(tie) vs. SEC #3.

Champs Sports: Wisconsin (5-3) vs. Miami (5-3); Big 10 #4 (tie) vs. ACC #4 (tie).

Outback: Northwestern (5-3) vs. Auburn (3-5); . .Big 10 #4 (tie) vs. SEC #7 (tie).

Alamo: MSU (4-4) vs.Texas Tech (4-4); . . . . . . .Big 10 #6 (tie) vs. Big 12 #4 (tie).

Insight: Minnesota (3-5) vs. Iowa St. (3-5); . . . . Big 10 #8 vs. Big 12 #8 (tie).
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Iowa has tiebreak on PSU with win.
Wisconsin is 5th due to tiebreak loss to NU.
Miami 4th by overall record, no head to head game.
Mish St is 6th tiebreak overall record and win over Purdue.
Auburn is 10th due to tiebreakers. Didn't play So Car.(who beat Kent) and lost to Ark and Kent.
TTU is 4th alone by tiebreaker- win and better overall record.

Either way still probably the best rank by rank of each game for the Big 10 in a long time.
 
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NateG;1616993; said:
Iowa has tiebreak on PSU with win.
Wisconsin is 5th due to tiebreak loss to NU.
Miami 4th by overall record, no head to head game.
Mish St is 6th tiebreak overall record and win over Purdue.
Auburn is 10th due to tiebreakers. Didn't play So Car.(who beat Kent) and lost to Ark and Kent.
TTU is 4th alone by tiebreaker- win and better overall record.

Either way still probably the best rank by rank of each game for the Big 10 in a long time.
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Don't mean to nit pick, but according to the Big 10 method for determining who would automatically represent the conference at a BCS bowl game, they do use these tie breakers (head to head, etc.), but for the final standings of conference teams, they don't seem to apply the BCS methods for determining rankings or "breaking ties".

Big Ten Football Standings - Big Ten Network

This site gives the final standings of the 2009 Big Ten season.
On the chart despite Wisconsin's loss to NU, Badgers are listed above NU in the standings based on overall record, but officially they both still tie for 4th place.
Just to further clarify, tOSU has a string of shared Big 10 championships yet in 2008 tOSU (7-1) was not the auto representative to the BCS bowl due to a head to head loss with Penn State (also 7-1).
Despite PSU's claim to the conference title, they both were awarded a share of the Big Ten title because of identical records in conference play.
 
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I'd like to see what the expected wins should be for each conference assuming a "normal" distribution from top to bottom. Something like:

SEC
1: +11
2: +9
3: +7
4: +5
5: +3
6: +1
7: -1
8: -3
9: -5
10: -7
11: -9
12: -11

B10
1: +10
2: +8
3: +6
4: +4
5: +2
6: +0
7: -2
8: -4
9: -6
10: -8
11: -10

#4 B10 would be favored by 7 over #8 SEC which should result in a 65% chance of the B10 winning, or 0.65 wins, for example. This would be an attempt to distribute point spreads amongst the conferences in a "normal" year. I'm sure it wouldn't be exactly what I gave it, it's just an example.

The final result would be something like the B10 should win 3.2 out of their 7 games if each conference was exactly even and normally distributed. I'd just be curious which conferences face (un)favorable schedules in terms of the slotting of the matchups.

It'd be tough to decide things like, should all BCS conferences be centered around 0? How should the non-BCS conferences be centered (maybe -10 to -15)? How should the number of teams in a conference impact how far the distribution stretches? i.e. conferences with twelve teams go (+/-) 11, eleven teams go (+/-) 10, 8 teams go (+/-) 7?
 
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I just know that NU was picked over Wisky due to the head to head win. So nit pick or not they were viewed as the higher team. I had heard that from multiple sources so I was just passing the info on. And ESPN listed it wrong then as well. Another reason why to dislike ESPN. :). Either way, like I said, good match-ups rank-wise for the Big Ten.
 
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Another way of projecting the outcomes of the B10 bowl games is with the Sagarin computer Predictor ratings.
According to oddsmakers, Sagarin Predictor is highly reliable for head to head predictions and pointspreads.

Sagarin Predictor on USA Today

Using the Jeff Sagarin unbiased Pure Points Predictor ratings the B10 matchups look like this:

Rose: Ohio State (87.02) vs. Oregon (88.46) Slight edge Oregon.

Orange: Iowa (81.07) vs. Georgia Tech (85.72), Big edge GT.

Cap One: Penn St. (84.48) vs. LSU (83.95). Very minimal edge to PSU.

Champs Sports: Wisconsin (78.04) vs. Miami (84.04). Large edge Miami.

Outback: Northwestern (67.09) vs. Auburn (79.17). Huge edge Auburn.

Alamo: MSU (75.11) vs.Texas Tech (83.55). Again huge edge to TTU.

Insight: Minnesota (68.72) vs. Iowa St. (68.39). Minimal edge Minny.

So if Sagarin predictor is accurate, we will witness, 2-5 B10 bowl season with the 2 wins by the slimmest of margin.
Four losses will be uncontested and the fifth loss (Rose) would be close/contested.
 
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BigWoof31;1617181; said:
Ditto. Wins by Ohio State and Minny.
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Cleveland PD had their predictions in...wins by Penn State, Minnesota, and Northwestern, losses by Wisconsin, Iowa, and Michigan State (badly)...OSU they sort of called a toss-up, but went with Oregon for a 3-4 record :shake:
 
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gracelhink, here's Howell's predictions:

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Champs Sports Bowl: Miami (Florida) (-4) vs. Wisconsin (TP=54 Odds=.578) @ Orlando, FL


Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Texas Bowl: Missouri (-1.5) vs. Navy (TP=52 Odds=.535) @ Houston, TX

Thursday, December 31, 2009

Insight Bowl: Minnesota (-0.5) vs. Iowa State (TP=45 Odds=.508) @ Tempe, AZ


Friday, January 1, 2010

Sugar Bowl: Florida (-5) vs. Cincinnati (TP=52 Odds=.602) @ New Orleans, LA
Rose Bowl: Oregon (-0.5) vs. Ohio State (TP=51 Odds=.506) @ Pasadena, CA
Capital One Bowl: Louisiana State (-0.5) vs. Penn State (TP=41 Odds=.519) @ Orlando, FL
Outback Bowl: Auburn (-5) vs. Northwestern (TP=52 Odds=.607) @ Tampa, FL


Saturday, January 2, 2010

Alamo Bowl: Texas Tech (-8.5) vs. Michigan State (TP=57 Odds=.659) @ San Antonio, TX

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech (-1.5) vs. Iowa (TP=50 Odds=.534) @ Miami, FL
 
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gracelhink;1617201; said:
Another way of projecting the outcomes of the B10 bowl games is with the Sagarin computer Predictor ratings.
According to oddsmakers, Sagarin Predictor is highly reliable for head to head predictions and pointspreads.
Click to expand...

Yeah, that's more of a look at what we should expect given what we know about the teams as of now.

I'm looking at it more like which conferences bowl agreements already put that conference at a (dis)advantage every year in terms of achieving a good win/loss record in the bowls. For instance, the BE plays teams that they should beat in average years (#3? BE vs. #6 ACC) and would probably have an expected record of 3.9 wins out of 6 when added up. This lets us know that a 4-2 record for them is about right for an average BCS conference. Ideally, I would also want to factor in how vegas weighs the location of the bowl into the point spread for those two teams.

One season with this would be pretty fluky, but adding it up across the decade would tell us a ton about which conferences have been under and over achieving.
 
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Steve19;1617217; said:
gracelhink, here's Howell's predictions:

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Champs Sports Bowl: Miami (Florida) (-4) vs. Wisconsin (TP=54 Odds=.578) @ Orlando, FL


Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Texas Bowl: Missouri (-1.5) vs. Navy (TP=52 Odds=.535) @ Houston, TX

Thursday, December 31, 2009

Insight Bowl: Minnesota (-0.5) vs. Iowa State (TP=45 Odds=.508) @ Tempe, AZ


Friday, January 1, 2010

Sugar Bowl: Florida (-5) vs. Cincinnati (TP=52 Odds=.602) @ New Orleans, LA
Rose Bowl: Oregon (-0.5) vs. Ohio State (TP=51 Odds=.506) @ Pasadena, CA
Capital One Bowl: Louisiana State (-0.5) vs. Penn State (TP=41 Odds=.519) @ Orlando, FL
Outback Bowl: Auburn (-5) vs. Northwestern (TP=52 Odds=.607) @ Tampa, FL


Saturday, January 2, 2010

Alamo Bowl: Texas Tech (-8.5) vs. Michigan State (TP=57 Odds=.659) @ San Antonio, TX
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Thanks Steve, The Howell predictor seems closer than what might be projected by Sagarin. I seem to remember that you are a believer in Sagarin Predictor?

Any word on Iowa from Howell?

The spread and TP on Florida vs. Cincy also seems incredibly low.
 
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