2008 Michigan Wolverines Game Preview
written by: BB73, BuckeyeRyn, Buckeyeskickbuttocks, Bucklion, DaddyBigBucks, JCOSU86, jwinslow, and 3yardsandacloud
Preface
It's finally TSUN week. The hair on the back of your neck probably stands up just thinking about this week's matchup. The scarlet blood flowing through your veins begins to boil as the countdown to kickoff winds down. You avoid mentioning the color of the sky, and want to rip into anything that displays the putrid urine-and-cobalt combination.
You're getting almost nothing done at work, and that doesn't really bother you. You're posting obscenities on message boards because it helps ease the tension. You're avoiding the use of the 13th letter of the alphabet, unless it's printed on your toilet paper. You're simply a true Buckeye fan getting ready for the greatest rivalry in all of sports: The Game.
As we look forward to this Saturday's showdown in the 'Shoe against That School Up North, it's important to note that this will be the final home game for many Buckeyes who have played their hearts out on that field.
The 2008 seniors:
Nader Abdallah (Metairie, La.)
Todd Boeckman (St. Henry, Ohio)
Alex Boone (Lakewood, Ohio)
Doug Ebner (Hershey, Pa.)
Marcus Freeman (Huber Heights, Ohio)
Tyson Gentry (Sandusky, Ohio)
Bryan Gray (Antwerp, Ohio)
Malcolm Jenkins (Piscataway, N.J.)
Ben Kacsandi (Wooster, Ohio)
Shaun Lane (Hubbard, Ohio)
J.D. Larson (Ventura, Calif.)
James Laurinaitis (Hamel, Minn.)
Ryan Lukens (Lebanon, Ohio)
Kyle Mitchum (Erie, Pa.)
Rory Nicol (Beaver, Pa.)
Jamario O'Neal (Cleveland, Ohio)
Nick Patterson (St. Louis, Mo.)
Ben Person (Xenia, Ohio)
Ryan Pretorius (Durbin, South Africa)
Steve Rehring (West Chester, Ohio)
Chris Rietschlin (Crestline, Ohio)
Brian Robiskie (Chagrin Falls, Ohio)
Kyle Ruhl (Powell, Ohio)
Jon Skinner (Mt. Carmel, Pa.)
Brandon Smith (Euclid, Ohio)
Curtis Terry (Cleveland, Ohio)
A.J. Trapasso (Pickerington, Ohio)
Maurice Wells (Jacksonville, Fla.)
Chris Wells may also be playing his last home game as a Buckeye, pending the NFL decision he'll make after the bowl game. One or two other names could be mentioned here, but they've not been listed; simply hoping that if we don't say goodbye we'll be able to enjoy watching them play one more season.
These players have the opportunity to earn another pair of Gold Pants for a win against TSUN. This will be the 75th Ohio State-Michigan game since 1934, when former Ohio State coach Francis "Close the Gates of Mercy" Schmidt uttered the words, "How about Michigan? They put their pants on one leg at a time, the same as we do." Since that time, the series is tied 35-35-4.
Early in the "10-Year War", which describes the Woody-vs-Bo years from 1969-1978, there was a stretch worth highlighting. From 1970 through 1975, TSUN came into The Game undefeated and ranked in the top-4 for six straight years. They came out of those 6 battles with just one victory, over a rebuilding tOSU squad in 1971. Just imagine the frustration of not getting a win 5 out of 6 years when a national title was still possible each year.
After some frustrations for the Buckeyes in the 1990s, 'good times' apparently returned 310 days prior to The Game in 2001, when tOSU's new head coach let the crowd know that he "gets it" when it comes to the battles against TSUN. A 6-1 record for Jim Tressel in The Game thus far has shown that to be the case, as fans have seen the Buckeyes assume the role as the dominant team in the Big Ten Conference. Here are the records of each team in Big Ten Conference games, by decade. tOSU joined the Big Ten in 1913.
Here is a decade by decade listing of the all-time W-L records for both teams (Big Ten Conference games only):
...........Decade...Decade...All-time..All-time..........Decade...Decade....All-time..All-time
.....TSUN..W--L--T..win-%.....W---L--T...win%......tOSU..W--L--T..win-%.....W---L--T...win-%
1890s.....08-03-01..72.73%..008-003-01..72.73%...........0--0--0...N/A......0---0--0.....N/A
1900s.....20-03-01..85.42%..028-006-01..81.43%...........0--0--0...N/A......0---0--0.....N/A
1910s.....03-05-00..37.50%..031-011-01..73.26%..........16-09-01..63.46%..016-009-01..63.46%
1920s.....32-14-02..68.75%..063-025-03..70.88%..........23-23-04..50.00%..039-032-05..54.61%
1930s.....32-21-02..60.00%..095-046-05..66.78%..........39-12-04..74.55%..078-044-09..62.98%
1940s.....46-09-03..81.90%..141-055-08..71.08%..........33-22-04..59.32%..111-066-13..61.82%
1950s.....37-26-03..58.33%..178-081-11..67.69%..........46-16-05..72.39%..157-082-18..64.59%
1960s.....35-31-02..52.94%..213-112-13..64.94%..........50-14-01..77.69%..207-096-19..67.24%
1970s.....69-09-01..87.97%..282-121-14..69.30%..........69-09-01..87.97%..276-105-20..71.32%
1980s.....68-14-02..82.14%..350-135-16..71.46%..........57-24-01..70.12%..333-129-24..71.12%
1990s.....61-17-02..77.50%..411-152-18..72.29%..........57-20-03..73.12%..390-149-24..71.40%
2000s.....52-19-00..73.29%..463-171-18..72.39%..........56-15-00..78.87%..446-164-24..72.24%
All-time record in Big Ten Conference games:
TSUN: 463-171-18, 72.39%
tOSU: 446-164-24, 72.24%
But if tOSU wins on Saturday, there's a new leader:
tOSU: 447-164-24, 72.2835%
TSUN: 463-172-18, 72.1818%
The Buckeyes originally took over that mark from TSUN in mid-1963, and held it until late in 1989. TSUN has held that distinction for almost 20 years, but if tOSU wins on Saturday, the Buckeyes would supplant TSUN as the team with the highest all-time winning percentage in Big Ten Conference games.
Note - Before 1946, the Big Ten discounted ties in factoring the winning percentages within the conference. But discounting 10 ties for tOSU and 6 ties for TSUN would still yield the same result: an Ohio State win results in them passing TSUN for all-time winning percentage in Big Ten Conference games.
As if there weren't already enough reasons for the players to want to win, they can also become the first team to ever defeat TSUN five straight times. And they can finish TSUN's disappointing season by handing them a record-breaking 9th defeat. But in The Game, all of the cliches can be tossed around, like "throw out the records", "it's a 1-game season", and so forth. So loosen up those vocal chords, allow that mixture of bile and venom to build up in your system, and let it all out Saturday afternoon as the Buckeyes defend the 'Shoe and start slugging it out on the field with the hated enemy.
Date and TimeAs we look forward to this Saturday's showdown in the 'Shoe against That School Up North, it's important to note that this will be the final home game for many Buckeyes who have played their hearts out on that field.
We've all seen their efforts over the past 4 years, and here are some of the accomplishments of the football team since 2005:
A 42-7 record (.857), with 2 games remaining; the most wins by a tOSU senior class is 43, set in 1995-98 and 2002-05.
Being placed #1 in the BCS for 12 straight ranking periods, breaking USC's record of 9
Being ranked #1 in the AP poll for 15 weeks in 2006 (tOSU's longest streak), and being #1 a total of 20 weeks
Being the first football team to ever play in three AP #1 vs. AP #2 games in a season (2006)
Winning the most anticipated game in the history of the 'Shoe, 42-39 the last time these teams met
Setting the Big Ten record for consecutive conference wins: 20
Tying the Big Ten record for consecutive regular season wins: 28
Setting the team record for most consecutive Big Ten road wins (15 and counting - 17 is the league record)
Before the game, the 28-member senior class, along with their parents, will be honored for their contributions to Ohio State football. This class enters The Game with three Big Ten titles, three wins over TSUN, two trips to the BCS title game and three BCS bowl appearances to its credit over the past four seasons. Being placed #1 in the BCS for 12 straight ranking periods, breaking USC's record of 9
Being ranked #1 in the AP poll for 15 weeks in 2006 (tOSU's longest streak), and being #1 a total of 20 weeks
Being the first football team to ever play in three AP #1 vs. AP #2 games in a season (2006)
Winning the most anticipated game in the history of the 'Shoe, 42-39 the last time these teams met
Setting the Big Ten record for consecutive conference wins: 20
Tying the Big Ten record for consecutive regular season wins: 28
Setting the team record for most consecutive Big Ten road wins (15 and counting - 17 is the league record)
The 2008 seniors:
Nader Abdallah (Metairie, La.)
Todd Boeckman (St. Henry, Ohio)
Alex Boone (Lakewood, Ohio)
Doug Ebner (Hershey, Pa.)
Marcus Freeman (Huber Heights, Ohio)
Tyson Gentry (Sandusky, Ohio)
Bryan Gray (Antwerp, Ohio)
Malcolm Jenkins (Piscataway, N.J.)
Ben Kacsandi (Wooster, Ohio)
Shaun Lane (Hubbard, Ohio)
J.D. Larson (Ventura, Calif.)
James Laurinaitis (Hamel, Minn.)
Ryan Lukens (Lebanon, Ohio)
Kyle Mitchum (Erie, Pa.)
Rory Nicol (Beaver, Pa.)
Jamario O'Neal (Cleveland, Ohio)
Nick Patterson (St. Louis, Mo.)
Ben Person (Xenia, Ohio)
Ryan Pretorius (Durbin, South Africa)
Steve Rehring (West Chester, Ohio)
Chris Rietschlin (Crestline, Ohio)
Brian Robiskie (Chagrin Falls, Ohio)
Kyle Ruhl (Powell, Ohio)
Jon Skinner (Mt. Carmel, Pa.)
Brandon Smith (Euclid, Ohio)
Curtis Terry (Cleveland, Ohio)
A.J. Trapasso (Pickerington, Ohio)
Maurice Wells (Jacksonville, Fla.)
Chris Wells may also be playing his last home game as a Buckeye, pending the NFL decision he'll make after the bowl game. One or two other names could be mentioned here, but they've not been listed; simply hoping that if we don't say goodbye we'll be able to enjoy watching them play one more season.
These players have the opportunity to earn another pair of Gold Pants for a win against TSUN. This will be the 75th Ohio State-Michigan game since 1934, when former Ohio State coach Francis "Close the Gates of Mercy" Schmidt uttered the words, "How about Michigan? They put their pants on one leg at a time, the same as we do." Since that time, the series is tied 35-35-4.
Early in the "10-Year War", which describes the Woody-vs-Bo years from 1969-1978, there was a stretch worth highlighting. From 1970 through 1975, TSUN came into The Game undefeated and ranked in the top-4 for six straight years. They came out of those 6 battles with just one victory, over a rebuilding tOSU squad in 1971. Just imagine the frustration of not getting a win 5 out of 6 years when a national title was still possible each year.
After some frustrations for the Buckeyes in the 1990s, 'good times' apparently returned 310 days prior to The Game in 2001, when tOSU's new head coach let the crowd know that he "gets it" when it comes to the battles against TSUN. A 6-1 record for Jim Tressel in The Game thus far has shown that to be the case, as fans have seen the Buckeyes assume the role as the dominant team in the Big Ten Conference. Here are the records of each team in Big Ten Conference games, by decade. tOSU joined the Big Ten in 1913.
Here is a decade by decade listing of the all-time W-L records for both teams (Big Ten Conference games only):
...........Decade...Decade...All-time..All-time..........Decade...Decade....All-time..All-time
.....TSUN..W--L--T..win-%.....W---L--T...win%......tOSU..W--L--T..win-%.....W---L--T...win-%
1890s.....08-03-01..72.73%..008-003-01..72.73%...........0--0--0...N/A......0---0--0.....N/A
1900s.....20-03-01..85.42%..028-006-01..81.43%...........0--0--0...N/A......0---0--0.....N/A
1910s.....03-05-00..37.50%..031-011-01..73.26%..........16-09-01..63.46%..016-009-01..63.46%
1920s.....32-14-02..68.75%..063-025-03..70.88%..........23-23-04..50.00%..039-032-05..54.61%
1930s.....32-21-02..60.00%..095-046-05..66.78%..........39-12-04..74.55%..078-044-09..62.98%
1940s.....46-09-03..81.90%..141-055-08..71.08%..........33-22-04..59.32%..111-066-13..61.82%
1950s.....37-26-03..58.33%..178-081-11..67.69%..........46-16-05..72.39%..157-082-18..64.59%
1960s.....35-31-02..52.94%..213-112-13..64.94%..........50-14-01..77.69%..207-096-19..67.24%
1970s.....69-09-01..87.97%..282-121-14..69.30%..........69-09-01..87.97%..276-105-20..71.32%
1980s.....68-14-02..82.14%..350-135-16..71.46%..........57-24-01..70.12%..333-129-24..71.12%
1990s.....61-17-02..77.50%..411-152-18..72.29%..........57-20-03..73.12%..390-149-24..71.40%
2000s.....52-19-00..73.29%..463-171-18..72.39%..........56-15-00..78.87%..446-164-24..72.24%
All-time record in Big Ten Conference games:
TSUN: 463-171-18, 72.39%
tOSU: 446-164-24, 72.24%
But if tOSU wins on Saturday, there's a new leader:
tOSU: 447-164-24, 72.2835%
TSUN: 463-172-18, 72.1818%
The Buckeyes originally took over that mark from TSUN in mid-1963, and held it until late in 1989. TSUN has held that distinction for almost 20 years, but if tOSU wins on Saturday, the Buckeyes would supplant TSUN as the team with the highest all-time winning percentage in Big Ten Conference games.
Note - Before 1946, the Big Ten discounted ties in factoring the winning percentages within the conference. But discounting 10 ties for tOSU and 6 ties for TSUN would still yield the same result: an Ohio State win results in them passing TSUN for all-time winning percentage in Big Ten Conference games.
As if there weren't already enough reasons for the players to want to win, they can also become the first team to ever defeat TSUN five straight times. And they can finish TSUN's disappointing season by handing them a record-breaking 9th defeat. But in The Game, all of the cliches can be tossed around, like "throw out the records", "it's a 1-game season", and so forth. So loosen up those vocal chords, allow that mixture of bile and venom to build up in your system, and let it all out Saturday afternoon as the Buckeyes defend the 'Shoe and start slugging it out on the field with the hated enemy.
Date: Saturday, November 22nd, 2008
Time: Noon ET Kick-off
Location: Ohio Stadium - "The Horseshoe" (Columbus, OH)
Constructed: 1922 (Renovated in 2001)
Seating Capacity: 102,329 (Originally 66,210)
Playing Surface: FieldTurf
Location: Ohio Stadium - "The Horseshoe" (Columbus, OH)
Constructed: 1922 (Renovated in 2001)
Seating Capacity: 102,329 (Originally 66,210)
Playing Surface: FieldTurf
Events: 28 Seniors will be introduced before The Game
Broadcast Information:
TV Broacast: ABC National: Brad Nessler (Play-by-play), Bob Griese and Paul Maguire (Analysis), and Stacey Dales (Sideline)
Radio Broadcast: Ohio State Radio Network (WBNS 1460TheFan in Columbus): Paul Keels (Play-by-play), Jim Lachey (Analysis), and Marty Bannister (Sideline)
2008 Michigan Wolverines Offensive PreviewBroadcast Information:
TV Broacast: ABC National: Brad Nessler (Play-by-play), Bob Griese and Paul Maguire (Analysis), and Stacey Dales (Sideline)
Radio Broadcast: Ohio State Radio Network (WBNS 1460TheFan in Columbus): Paul Keels (Play-by-play), Jim Lachey (Analysis), and Marty Bannister (Sideline)
Returning starters:
The Game. Every season boils down to it. In 2008, for Michigan, the entire season rides on it. If success can be measured in record and rivalry games, then Michigan fans have not had much to cheer about all season on either count. Before pummeling the Gophers to save the Little Brown Jug 2 weeks ago, Michigan's highlights were an uninspired 16-6 win over the 6th place team in the MAC east, and an improbable 2 point come-from-behind win over a Wisconsin team that probably played their worst 2nd half of football in 3 or 4 decades, then proceeded to drop their next 4 games en route to currently standing 8th in the Big Ten. They cannot finish .500 in their conference. They cannot go to a bowl game. They have already set a 129 year old school record for number of losses. Along the way, there was an embarrassing home loss to Toledo, losses to bitter rivals Notre Dame and Michigan State, the first loss to Penn State in over a decade, and a 2-5 HOME record. By all accounts, it has been an entirely miserable 2008 for the Wolverines. Until now. The Wolverines have one singular chance to keep the first year of the Rich Rodriguez era from being an unmitigated disaster by Michigan standards, or quite frankly by any standards. And that is to take out the Buckeyes on Saturday, on the road, at high noon, at the epicenter of rivalry week. One game season. Perhaps never in the history of Michigan football has this sentence carried more literal meaning.
And then there is the inauspicious debut of the Rich Rodriguez era. Is he feeling sauna-style heat already? Obviously, everyone knew that with the departure of so many players and the implementation of an entirely new offensive scheme, there would be a "transition period". However, Michigan alumni and fans are used to seeing their coaches achieve success early and often. Fielding Yost was 55-1-1 in his first 5 seasons. Fritz Crisler was 32-8-2 after 5 seasons. Bennie Oosterbaan was 9-0 right out of the gate. Bo had racked up a 58-7-1 record after his first half dozen years. And after 5 years, Lloyd Carr was 49-13, including a share of a national title. Even the much maligned Gary Moeller started his first 3 years with a 28-5-3 clip, which included a season with no losses (with 3 ties) in 1992. In fact, to show some perspective as to what RichRod is up against, since Fielding Yost took over in 1901 and until Lloyd Carr retired in 2007, there had been only 10 head coaches at Michigan. Nine of those had winning records and a winning percentage of at least .600 in their first season. Only Bump Elliot (4-5) had a losing record in year one. Of the coaches who made it to year 3, their records in year 2 were: 11-0 (Yost), 8-0-1 (Kipke), 6-2 (Crisler), 6-2-1 (Oosterbaan), 5-4 (Elliott), 9-1 (Bo), 10-2 (Moeller), and 8-4 (Carr). Make no mistake about it, Rodriguez will be under tremendous pressure to get the program turned around quickly and decisively next year. A win over the Buckeyes could give him something significant to build on for 2009. A crushing defeat would make this year a virtual waste. So the coach has just as much, if not more, riding on this game as the players do.
Michigan's offense has shown occasional flashes of promise, combined with a healthy dose of mediocrity and significant spells of completely abysmal play. Most of their statistical totals rank outside of the top 100 (of 119) of FBS teams. In total yardage, they are only gaining 309.5 yards per game, ranked 105th nationally. They have balance, but it is not good balance, as they are gaining only 150.9 yards per game on the ground (60th) and passing for only 148.3 yards per game, ranked 104th. Michigan is also only scoring 21.5 points per contest, good for only 87th nationally. Even more troubling and indicative of their season, the Wolverines are not making many 1st downs at all (15.9 per game, 108th), and they are barely converting any 3rd downs either (29.6%, 113th). Clearly, there have been significant growing pains in the first year of the Rodriguez era, and they have not really seemed to subside much as the season has progressed, the Minnesota game aside. It will be interesting to see what kind of gameplan the Wolverines have for the Buckeyes, and how well they are able to execute that and hang in the ballgame.
Quarterbacks
QB #10 Steven Threet (6-6, 230, FR, Adrian HS, Adrian, MI)
QB #8 Nick Sheridan (6-1, 212, SO, Saline HS, Saline, MI)
It is difficult not to feel at least a little sympathy for Threet, as he has been expected to run an offense that no one in the program is accustomed to, right after the mass defections and coaching drama that plagued the end of the 2007 campaign, behind an offensive line that had not played together, or much at all, with a young and inexperienced group of wide receivers. Still, despite a rather abysmal completion percentage, he has managed to throw more TDs than INTs, has displayed a strong arm at times, can run more than one might think, and has taken a pounding all season, repeatedly getting up after hard hits. Unfortunately for the Wolverines, it appears he will probably miss the game Saturday with a separated shoulder. Despite the general atrociousness of the offense for significant stretches, Threet himself has acquitted himself admirably, given the circumstances. He has thrown at least one TD pass in 7 games, has run for 2 scores, and threw for 250 yards and 2 TDs against Illinois. He also rushed for 89 yards in their improbable win over Wisconsin, and has limited his sack total to 15, a significant accomplishment considering. Still, he has missed plenty of open receivers, and broke the 100 yard mark for passing only 4 times.
Sheridan has seen action in 7 games, often at curious times. He saw significant action in the opener, throwing for 98 yards and a TD, threw 2 picks in 5 passes against Notre Dame, then virtually disappeared before going 8 of 16 with 2 interceptions down the stretch against Toledo and capped a terrible 2nd half against Penn State for the Wolverines by going 3 of 9 for 5 yards and carrying 4 times for 1 yard. He had his best outing by far against Minnesota, throwing for 230 yards and a score, and chipping in 33 yards on the ground while leading the Wolverines to an improbable victory. Unfortunately for Michigan faithful, he was terrible against Northwestern last week while filling in for Threet, going just 8 of 29 for 61 yards, though he did run for 35 yards and a score. If Sheridan plays, it appears to be a downgrade for the Wolverines, as he does not seem to be quite the threat on the ground that Threet is and he does not seem to be able to get the ball downfield very effectively. His completion percentage was decent before last week, but it is difficult to tell which Sheridan one will get: the one who led his team to a convincing win at Minnesota, or the one who played their way out of the game against Northwestern. Whoever plays, they have their work cut out for them at noon Saturday, and the rating drops with the primary player being hurt.
QB Rating: D-
Head-to-Head: Michigan versus OSU QB
Threet (P/R): 102/200 (51.0%), 1105 yards, 9 TDs, 7 INTs, 105.3 rating; 76/201, 2 TDs
Sheridan: 55/113 (48.7%), 526 yards, 2 TDs, 5 INTs, 84.8 rating; 34/102, 1 TD
Pryor (P/R): 90/139 (64.7%), 1125 yards, 10 TDs, 3 INTs, 152.2 rating; 116/560, 6 TDs
Both teams have young QBs who have had their share of growing pains this season. However, Pryor has demonstrated his explosiveness running the football, has completed a high percentage of his passes, has taken care not to make bad throws, thus keeping his TD/INT ratio high, and has played very well on the road this season, indicating his maturity level and his rapid development. On the other side, in this era of offense, the completion percentage of the Michigan QBs is horrible, they collectively have more interceptions than TDs, and they have had spells where neither one has looked like they were on the same page with their receivers, while the coach has not helped matters with his occasional curious substitution of one for the other at seemingly inopportune times. If Threet has to sit, it is a blow to the Wolverines, because he has a better arm, is more dangerous on the ground, and Sheridan does not seem to be able to get the ball downfield effectively, though his progression through his reads seems to be more solid. Either way, Pryor has the edge here.
Edge: Ohio State
Running Backs
TB #4 Brandon Minor (6-1, 208, JR, Varina HS, Richmond, VA)
TB #20 Michael Shaw (6-0, 177, FR, Trotwood-Madison HS, Trotwood, OH)
TB #2 Sam McGuffie (5-11, 185, FR, Cy-Fair HS, Cypress, TX)
TB #23 Carlos Brown (6-0, 213, JR, Heard County HS, Franklin, GA)
FB #44 Mark Moundros (6-1, 230, SO, North Farmington HS, Farmington Hills, MI)
There has been little stability at this position for the Wolverines in 2008. McGuffie started the first 6 games, and was the steadiest skill player on the offense during that time. He has played sparingly in recent weeks, however, battling shoulder trouble. His highlights include 74 yards against Miami, 70 yards and a TD against Illinois, and 105 yards against Toledo. His best game was against the Irish, where he carried for 131 yards, and chipped in 4 catches for 47 yards and a TD. A youngster with deceptive speed and toughness, there appears to be nice upside for him. It is unclear whether he will play this weekend due to a death in the family. The BP preview staff extends our condolences to the McGuffie family, with best wishes for them to get through a difficult time.
Minor has led the way recently, starting several ballgames and demonstrating a punishing running style. After playing sparingly early in the season, his production swelled at mid-season, and he is now second on the team in yardage and leads the team in TDs with 8. His best 4-game stretch began with 117 yards and 2 TDs against Penn State in a 1st half that he dominated, continued with 55 yards and a score against the Spartans and a dominating 155 yards and 3 TDs on 24 carries against Purdue, and concluded with 53 yards against Minnesota. He did not have a carry last week against the Wildcats, as he is struggling with a shoulder injury.
Shaw, a converted WR, has been in and out of the gameplan, with sporadic production that has him 4th on the team in yardage. He gained 45 yards on 2 carries against Miami, picked up 71 yards on just 8 carries against Minnesota, and got 7 carries last weekend, but produced only 17 yards. He has also caught 6 passes, including a TD against Utah in the opener. He is a young speedster who should have plenty of good games ahead of him.
Brown emerged as a major factor last weekend after missing most of the season with a myriad of injury problems. With his teammates injured or struggling, he responded with 115 yards on 23 carries against Northwestern last week, and chipped in 2 catches. He could be the primary back this week, depending on the health of Minor and the status of McGuffie. He has good power and deceptively good speed, and could be a headache for the Buckeyes on Saturday.
In totality, all 4 backs could contribute Saturday, or one, probably Brown, could carry the primary load. In any event, whoever runs the ball will have to have success early and consistently for the Wolverines to have any chance. Tough rating this unit, as there is some talent there, but also plenty of inconsistency due to injury.
Moundros is a good blocker who can carry it once in a while and has a TD reception.
RB Rating: C+
Head-to-Head: Michigan versus OSU RB
McGuffie: 118/486 yards, 4 TDs, 4.1 YPC; 19 rec/175 yards, 1 TD, 9.1 YPR
Minor: 89/466 yards, 8 TDs, 5.2 YPC; 5 rec/59 yards, 2 TDs, 11.8 YPR
Shaw: 30/174 yards, 0 TDs, 5.8 YPC; 6 rec/32 yards, 1 TD, 5.3 YPR
Brown: 26/119 yards, 0 TDs, 4.6 YPC; 5 rec/20 yards, 0 TDs, 4.0 YPR
C Wells: 176/957 yards, 7 TDs, 5.4 YPC; 7 rec/26 yards, 0 TDs, 3.7 YPR
Herron: 76/329 yards, 3 TDs, 4.3 YPC; 6 rec/29 yards, 0 TDs, 4.8 YPR
M Wells: 32/123 yards, 0 TDs, 3.8 YPC; 5 rec/42 yards, 0 TDs, 8.4 YPR
While everyone figured there would be struggles at the QB position in the Rodriguez scheme in week 1, the 4-headed monster at the tailback position basically summarizes the Wolverine season to date. No back has really been able to get it going, with different players showing some promise for short stretches and then being replaced by someone else, usually due to injury problems. Minor seems to run the hardest of the bunch, particularly between the tackles, though Brown had a nice game last weekend against the Wildcats in that regard. Shaw, a converted WR, has quite a bit of speed, so his carries are sporadic and often hit or miss, while McGuffie showed some promise and consistency early in the season when the QBs were really struggling. On the flip side, Buckeye and Wolverine fans alike know that Chris Wells has owned Michigan like a Treasury Bond. In 2 games against the Wolverines, he pasted them for 56 yards and a TD in just 5 carries in 2006, and then single-handedly annihilated them with 222 yards and 2 TDs on 39 carries last year. If the Wolverines are going to have any chance, they will have to find a way to stop wells, but now they also have Pryor to worry about in the ground game. Herron also adds a nice 2nd punch for the Buckeyes when Wells needs a breather.
Edge: Ohio State
Wide Receivers
WR #13 Greg Mathews (6-3, 206, JR, Edgewater HS, Orlando, FL)
WR #9 Martavious Odoms (5-9, 168, FR, Pahokee HS, Pahokee, FL)
WR #22 Darryl Stonum (6-2, 184, FR, Dulles HS, Stafford, TX)
Mathews is the one returning player with significant experience from 2007, when he caught 39 passes for 366 yards and 3 TDs. He leads the way again in yardage in 2008, though his production, like the Michigan passing game, has been inconsistent. He has caught at least 3 passes in 7 games, including 4 for 73 yards and a TD against Illinois, 6 for 79 yards and a TD against Minnesota, and 5 for 46 yards last weekend against the Wildcats. He is a good-sized target and offers some leadership at a position filled with younger players. Odoms is a burner who is still learning the finer points of route running and has been somewhat inconsistent catching the ball. He did have 6 catches for 56 yards against Notre Dame, and 7 catches for 129 yards against Illinois, so he can be a big factor in a game. He caught just one pass last weekend however. Stonum catches a ball or two per game, highlighted by 61 yards on 2 catches with a TD against Purdue. As a unit, these players have not made it easy on the struggling quarterbacks, having trouble getting open, and they have dropped some key passes at crucial times. The future could be bright as they find their way however, as most of these players are underclassmen.
Off the bench, sophomore Toney Clemons (#17) has the most catches (11), including 4 against Toledo and 2 against Minnesota. James Rogers (#18), and LaTerryal Savoy (#82) can also nab the occasional pass.
WR Rating: C-
Head-to-Head: Michigan versus OSU WRs
Mathews: 35 catches, 409 yards, 2 TDs, 11.7 YPR
Odoms: 44 catches, 406 yards, 0 TDs, 9.2 YPR
Stonum: 13 catches, 143 yards, 1 TD, 11.0 YPR
Robiskie: 35 catches, 365 yards, 7 TDs, 10.4 YPR
Hartline: 19 catches, 408 yards, 2 TDs, 21.5 YPR
Sanzenbacher: 19 catches, 223 yards, 1 TD, 11.7 YPR
No one stands out here in terms of numbers. This is a young group of Wolverine receivers who were expected to struggle with a new system, but none of them have set themselves apart, and all have dropped too many passes in crucial situations. They also have not found the end zone much, something that underlies part of the problem for the Wolverine offense to get the big play and get the ball downfield. The Buckeye numbers are also low, but the receivers have quite a bit more experience in big games, and Robiskie and Hartline are both capable of having a big game, or making a crucial catch, when called upon. Sanzenbacher has also emerged as a find for the offense this season. Given the experience gap, the Buckeyes get the edge.
Edge: Ohio State
Tight Ends
TE #86 Kevin Koger (6-4, 238, FR, Whitmer HS, Toledo, OH)
Koger is another young player who could develop into a good player at a position that has seen Michigan produce quite a few good players in the recent past. He has not caught a ball the past 3 games, though all 6 of his catches have come in Big Ten play. Senior backup Mike Massey (#83) is a former St. Ignatius product who started 4 games last season before being hit with a serious injury. With 20 career catches, he was expected to have the inside track in the battle for the starting position this year, but has not been a significant factor. Carson Butler's myriad of problems and his move to the defensive side have basically left him as a non-factor.
TE Rating: C+
Head-to-Head: Michigan versus Ohio State TEs
Koger: 6 catches, 93 yards, 1 TD, 15.5 YPR
Nicol: 6 catches, 60 yards, 2 TDs, 10.0 YPR
Ballard: 3 catches, 42 yards, 0 TDs, 14.0 YPR
Koger is a younger player who looks like he could develop into a good one over time. For the Buckeyes, they do not utilize their TE in the passing game much, but Nicol has been a credible blocker and occasional contributor in the passing game. Ballard gives the Buckeyes another occasional option in the passing game. Given the extensive experience edge, the Buckeyes come out ahead here.
Edge: Ohio State
Offensive Line
LT #71 Mark Ortmann (6-7, 287, JR, Klein HS, Klein, TX)
LG #74 John Ferrara (6-4, 283, SO, Monsignor Ferrell HS, Long Island, NY)
C #50 David Molk (6-2, 284, FR, Lemont Township HS, Lemont, IL)
RG #60 David Moosman (6-5, 286, JR, Libertyville HS, Libertyville, IL)
RT #52 Stephen Schilling (6-5, 295, SO, King HS, Bellevue HS, Bellevue, WA)
This line is not as big or physical as Buckeye fans are used to seeing in November. On the Wolverine line, the right side has the most experience and stability. Schilling made several all-freshmen teams last season, starting all 13 Wolverine games on the right side, 11 at tackle and 2 at guard. He is versatile, with quick feet, and decent lateral movement, and has started every game for the Wolverines this season as well. Moosman was an interior reserve the past two seasons, primarily at center, and has taken hold of the RG position in 2008, starting all 11 contests. In the middle, Molk is starting right out of the gate after being a consensus top 5 center prospect coming out of high school, starting every game at the pivot. On the left side, Ortmann started 2 games at right tackle last season, and was expected to battle for that spot, but instead was moved over to the LT position to replace Jake Long, where he had been a backup previously. He has decent height and leverage, and has started 8 games this season at LT, with an additional 2 starts at LG. Ferrara is a converted defensive tackle who played in all 13 games last season, but switched to offense in 2008. He has made 4 starts at a position that has seen its share of flux in 2008.
Down the roster, sophomore Perry Dorrestein (#79) made 3 starts at LT this season after playing sparingly as a backup in 2007. He has good size (6-7, 313) and is more of a traditionally built Michigan lineman. He backs up both tackle spots. Veteran junior Tim McAvoy (#62, 6-6, 284) started 1 game at RG in 2007, and started 5 games at the LG guard position early in the season, and now is a backup along the interior. There is very little else behind them, as Moosman and Ferrara slide around the interior if necessary.
OL Rating: D+
Head-to-Head: Michigan versus Ohio State OL
The Buckeyes have finally started to look like the team they were supposed to be all season. Recent performances, particularly on the road, have been dramatically better than earlier OOC home games where they struggled significantly. The Wolverines have struggled all season adopting their new system, and they have a lot of younger players who are trying to find their way and gel as they play together more. The right side has been more consistent, led by Schilling, and Molk seems to be a very good prospect. In a year or two, this could be a reasonable line, but given the blown assignments and significant struggles of the offense in both the running and passing games, along with the experience factor, the Wolverines do not measure up to the Buckeyes up front in 2008, as they have in many years past.
Edge: Ohio State
Overall Offensive Analysis
As a whole, the Wolverines have looked lost, or at least not on the same page, for much of 2008. Though they have had promising stretches (the first half against Penn State), they often equal or surpass that with stretches of terrible play (the second half against Penn State). Along the way, they failed to put points up against terrible defenses like Toledo, and couldn't score enough, even when they were playing well, against subpar teams like Purdue. Rodriguez has his work cut out for him going forward, not just installing his system, but in finding the types of players who can run it effectively, with the circling albatross of tremendous expectations to win and win quickly that comes with coaching at Michigan. Pat White and Steve Slaton is a once-in-a-generation type of tandem, so it will be difficult to replicate that caliber of playmaker consistently, let along together, even at a football mecca like Michigan. As for this game, the Wolverines will have to establish a ground attack early with Brown or Minor, much like they did against Penn State, and then play a solid 60 minute football game like they did against Minnesota. That might open up some opportunities for completions on the wings, provided the quarterback has the time and ability to deliver the ball quickly and on target. Grabbing some turnovers like the 2nd half of the Wisconsin game wouldn't hut them either, and they had better protect the ball carefully against the Buckeyes, who are constantly itching to set their offense up with a short field and watch Pryor work his magic or Wells pound the opponent into oblivion. It is a daunting task, finishing the season against one of the nation's best defenses with a fledgling offense that has struggled most of the year in a game that has no postseason implications, but it is what the Wolverines are faced with. Look for them to pull out all the stops, use every player available, and do everything they can to be competitive in this, the only football game they could truly hang their collective hats on if they manage to salvage a win. If they do not win, or at least produce a competitive product, the 2008 season will go down as a complete unmitigated disaster, and fans and alumni alike will all be wondering how much better the prospects for 2009 really are.
Overall Offensive Rating: D
2008 Michigan Wolverines Defensive PreviewAnd then there is the inauspicious debut of the Rich Rodriguez era. Is he feeling sauna-style heat already? Obviously, everyone knew that with the departure of so many players and the implementation of an entirely new offensive scheme, there would be a "transition period". However, Michigan alumni and fans are used to seeing their coaches achieve success early and often. Fielding Yost was 55-1-1 in his first 5 seasons. Fritz Crisler was 32-8-2 after 5 seasons. Bennie Oosterbaan was 9-0 right out of the gate. Bo had racked up a 58-7-1 record after his first half dozen years. And after 5 years, Lloyd Carr was 49-13, including a share of a national title. Even the much maligned Gary Moeller started his first 3 years with a 28-5-3 clip, which included a season with no losses (with 3 ties) in 1992. In fact, to show some perspective as to what RichRod is up against, since Fielding Yost took over in 1901 and until Lloyd Carr retired in 2007, there had been only 10 head coaches at Michigan. Nine of those had winning records and a winning percentage of at least .600 in their first season. Only Bump Elliot (4-5) had a losing record in year one. Of the coaches who made it to year 3, their records in year 2 were: 11-0 (Yost), 8-0-1 (Kipke), 6-2 (Crisler), 6-2-1 (Oosterbaan), 5-4 (Elliott), 9-1 (Bo), 10-2 (Moeller), and 8-4 (Carr). Make no mistake about it, Rodriguez will be under tremendous pressure to get the program turned around quickly and decisively next year. A win over the Buckeyes could give him something significant to build on for 2009. A crushing defeat would make this year a virtual waste. So the coach has just as much, if not more, riding on this game as the players do.
Michigan's offense has shown occasional flashes of promise, combined with a healthy dose of mediocrity and significant spells of completely abysmal play. Most of their statistical totals rank outside of the top 100 (of 119) of FBS teams. In total yardage, they are only gaining 309.5 yards per game, ranked 105th nationally. They have balance, but it is not good balance, as they are gaining only 150.9 yards per game on the ground (60th) and passing for only 148.3 yards per game, ranked 104th. Michigan is also only scoring 21.5 points per contest, good for only 87th nationally. Even more troubling and indicative of their season, the Wolverines are not making many 1st downs at all (15.9 per game, 108th), and they are barely converting any 3rd downs either (29.6%, 113th). Clearly, there have been significant growing pains in the first year of the Rodriguez era, and they have not really seemed to subside much as the season has progressed, the Minnesota game aside. It will be interesting to see what kind of gameplan the Wolverines have for the Buckeyes, and how well they are able to execute that and hang in the ballgame.
Quarterbacks
QB #10 Steven Threet (6-6, 230, FR, Adrian HS, Adrian, MI)
QB #8 Nick Sheridan (6-1, 212, SO, Saline HS, Saline, MI)
It is difficult not to feel at least a little sympathy for Threet, as he has been expected to run an offense that no one in the program is accustomed to, right after the mass defections and coaching drama that plagued the end of the 2007 campaign, behind an offensive line that had not played together, or much at all, with a young and inexperienced group of wide receivers. Still, despite a rather abysmal completion percentage, he has managed to throw more TDs than INTs, has displayed a strong arm at times, can run more than one might think, and has taken a pounding all season, repeatedly getting up after hard hits. Unfortunately for the Wolverines, it appears he will probably miss the game Saturday with a separated shoulder. Despite the general atrociousness of the offense for significant stretches, Threet himself has acquitted himself admirably, given the circumstances. He has thrown at least one TD pass in 7 games, has run for 2 scores, and threw for 250 yards and 2 TDs against Illinois. He also rushed for 89 yards in their improbable win over Wisconsin, and has limited his sack total to 15, a significant accomplishment considering. Still, he has missed plenty of open receivers, and broke the 100 yard mark for passing only 4 times.
Sheridan has seen action in 7 games, often at curious times. He saw significant action in the opener, throwing for 98 yards and a TD, threw 2 picks in 5 passes against Notre Dame, then virtually disappeared before going 8 of 16 with 2 interceptions down the stretch against Toledo and capped a terrible 2nd half against Penn State for the Wolverines by going 3 of 9 for 5 yards and carrying 4 times for 1 yard. He had his best outing by far against Minnesota, throwing for 230 yards and a score, and chipping in 33 yards on the ground while leading the Wolverines to an improbable victory. Unfortunately for Michigan faithful, he was terrible against Northwestern last week while filling in for Threet, going just 8 of 29 for 61 yards, though he did run for 35 yards and a score. If Sheridan plays, it appears to be a downgrade for the Wolverines, as he does not seem to be quite the threat on the ground that Threet is and he does not seem to be able to get the ball downfield very effectively. His completion percentage was decent before last week, but it is difficult to tell which Sheridan one will get: the one who led his team to a convincing win at Minnesota, or the one who played their way out of the game against Northwestern. Whoever plays, they have their work cut out for them at noon Saturday, and the rating drops with the primary player being hurt.
QB Rating: D-
Head-to-Head: Michigan versus OSU QB
Threet (P/R): 102/200 (51.0%), 1105 yards, 9 TDs, 7 INTs, 105.3 rating; 76/201, 2 TDs
Sheridan: 55/113 (48.7%), 526 yards, 2 TDs, 5 INTs, 84.8 rating; 34/102, 1 TD
Pryor (P/R): 90/139 (64.7%), 1125 yards, 10 TDs, 3 INTs, 152.2 rating; 116/560, 6 TDs
Both teams have young QBs who have had their share of growing pains this season. However, Pryor has demonstrated his explosiveness running the football, has completed a high percentage of his passes, has taken care not to make bad throws, thus keeping his TD/INT ratio high, and has played very well on the road this season, indicating his maturity level and his rapid development. On the other side, in this era of offense, the completion percentage of the Michigan QBs is horrible, they collectively have more interceptions than TDs, and they have had spells where neither one has looked like they were on the same page with their receivers, while the coach has not helped matters with his occasional curious substitution of one for the other at seemingly inopportune times. If Threet has to sit, it is a blow to the Wolverines, because he has a better arm, is more dangerous on the ground, and Sheridan does not seem to be able to get the ball downfield effectively, though his progression through his reads seems to be more solid. Either way, Pryor has the edge here.
Edge: Ohio State
Running Backs
TB #4 Brandon Minor (6-1, 208, JR, Varina HS, Richmond, VA)
TB #20 Michael Shaw (6-0, 177, FR, Trotwood-Madison HS, Trotwood, OH)
TB #2 Sam McGuffie (5-11, 185, FR, Cy-Fair HS, Cypress, TX)
TB #23 Carlos Brown (6-0, 213, JR, Heard County HS, Franklin, GA)
FB #44 Mark Moundros (6-1, 230, SO, North Farmington HS, Farmington Hills, MI)
There has been little stability at this position for the Wolverines in 2008. McGuffie started the first 6 games, and was the steadiest skill player on the offense during that time. He has played sparingly in recent weeks, however, battling shoulder trouble. His highlights include 74 yards against Miami, 70 yards and a TD against Illinois, and 105 yards against Toledo. His best game was against the Irish, where he carried for 131 yards, and chipped in 4 catches for 47 yards and a TD. A youngster with deceptive speed and toughness, there appears to be nice upside for him. It is unclear whether he will play this weekend due to a death in the family. The BP preview staff extends our condolences to the McGuffie family, with best wishes for them to get through a difficult time.
Minor has led the way recently, starting several ballgames and demonstrating a punishing running style. After playing sparingly early in the season, his production swelled at mid-season, and he is now second on the team in yardage and leads the team in TDs with 8. His best 4-game stretch began with 117 yards and 2 TDs against Penn State in a 1st half that he dominated, continued with 55 yards and a score against the Spartans and a dominating 155 yards and 3 TDs on 24 carries against Purdue, and concluded with 53 yards against Minnesota. He did not have a carry last week against the Wildcats, as he is struggling with a shoulder injury.
Shaw, a converted WR, has been in and out of the gameplan, with sporadic production that has him 4th on the team in yardage. He gained 45 yards on 2 carries against Miami, picked up 71 yards on just 8 carries against Minnesota, and got 7 carries last weekend, but produced only 17 yards. He has also caught 6 passes, including a TD against Utah in the opener. He is a young speedster who should have plenty of good games ahead of him.
Brown emerged as a major factor last weekend after missing most of the season with a myriad of injury problems. With his teammates injured or struggling, he responded with 115 yards on 23 carries against Northwestern last week, and chipped in 2 catches. He could be the primary back this week, depending on the health of Minor and the status of McGuffie. He has good power and deceptively good speed, and could be a headache for the Buckeyes on Saturday.
In totality, all 4 backs could contribute Saturday, or one, probably Brown, could carry the primary load. In any event, whoever runs the ball will have to have success early and consistently for the Wolverines to have any chance. Tough rating this unit, as there is some talent there, but also plenty of inconsistency due to injury.
Moundros is a good blocker who can carry it once in a while and has a TD reception.
RB Rating: C+
Head-to-Head: Michigan versus OSU RB
McGuffie: 118/486 yards, 4 TDs, 4.1 YPC; 19 rec/175 yards, 1 TD, 9.1 YPR
Minor: 89/466 yards, 8 TDs, 5.2 YPC; 5 rec/59 yards, 2 TDs, 11.8 YPR
Shaw: 30/174 yards, 0 TDs, 5.8 YPC; 6 rec/32 yards, 1 TD, 5.3 YPR
Brown: 26/119 yards, 0 TDs, 4.6 YPC; 5 rec/20 yards, 0 TDs, 4.0 YPR
C Wells: 176/957 yards, 7 TDs, 5.4 YPC; 7 rec/26 yards, 0 TDs, 3.7 YPR
Herron: 76/329 yards, 3 TDs, 4.3 YPC; 6 rec/29 yards, 0 TDs, 4.8 YPR
M Wells: 32/123 yards, 0 TDs, 3.8 YPC; 5 rec/42 yards, 0 TDs, 8.4 YPR
While everyone figured there would be struggles at the QB position in the Rodriguez scheme in week 1, the 4-headed monster at the tailback position basically summarizes the Wolverine season to date. No back has really been able to get it going, with different players showing some promise for short stretches and then being replaced by someone else, usually due to injury problems. Minor seems to run the hardest of the bunch, particularly between the tackles, though Brown had a nice game last weekend against the Wildcats in that regard. Shaw, a converted WR, has quite a bit of speed, so his carries are sporadic and often hit or miss, while McGuffie showed some promise and consistency early in the season when the QBs were really struggling. On the flip side, Buckeye and Wolverine fans alike know that Chris Wells has owned Michigan like a Treasury Bond. In 2 games against the Wolverines, he pasted them for 56 yards and a TD in just 5 carries in 2006, and then single-handedly annihilated them with 222 yards and 2 TDs on 39 carries last year. If the Wolverines are going to have any chance, they will have to find a way to stop wells, but now they also have Pryor to worry about in the ground game. Herron also adds a nice 2nd punch for the Buckeyes when Wells needs a breather.
Edge: Ohio State
Wide Receivers
WR #13 Greg Mathews (6-3, 206, JR, Edgewater HS, Orlando, FL)
WR #9 Martavious Odoms (5-9, 168, FR, Pahokee HS, Pahokee, FL)
WR #22 Darryl Stonum (6-2, 184, FR, Dulles HS, Stafford, TX)
Mathews is the one returning player with significant experience from 2007, when he caught 39 passes for 366 yards and 3 TDs. He leads the way again in yardage in 2008, though his production, like the Michigan passing game, has been inconsistent. He has caught at least 3 passes in 7 games, including 4 for 73 yards and a TD against Illinois, 6 for 79 yards and a TD against Minnesota, and 5 for 46 yards last weekend against the Wildcats. He is a good-sized target and offers some leadership at a position filled with younger players. Odoms is a burner who is still learning the finer points of route running and has been somewhat inconsistent catching the ball. He did have 6 catches for 56 yards against Notre Dame, and 7 catches for 129 yards against Illinois, so he can be a big factor in a game. He caught just one pass last weekend however. Stonum catches a ball or two per game, highlighted by 61 yards on 2 catches with a TD against Purdue. As a unit, these players have not made it easy on the struggling quarterbacks, having trouble getting open, and they have dropped some key passes at crucial times. The future could be bright as they find their way however, as most of these players are underclassmen.
Off the bench, sophomore Toney Clemons (#17) has the most catches (11), including 4 against Toledo and 2 against Minnesota. James Rogers (#18), and LaTerryal Savoy (#82) can also nab the occasional pass.
WR Rating: C-
Head-to-Head: Michigan versus OSU WRs
Mathews: 35 catches, 409 yards, 2 TDs, 11.7 YPR
Odoms: 44 catches, 406 yards, 0 TDs, 9.2 YPR
Stonum: 13 catches, 143 yards, 1 TD, 11.0 YPR
Robiskie: 35 catches, 365 yards, 7 TDs, 10.4 YPR
Hartline: 19 catches, 408 yards, 2 TDs, 21.5 YPR
Sanzenbacher: 19 catches, 223 yards, 1 TD, 11.7 YPR
No one stands out here in terms of numbers. This is a young group of Wolverine receivers who were expected to struggle with a new system, but none of them have set themselves apart, and all have dropped too many passes in crucial situations. They also have not found the end zone much, something that underlies part of the problem for the Wolverine offense to get the big play and get the ball downfield. The Buckeye numbers are also low, but the receivers have quite a bit more experience in big games, and Robiskie and Hartline are both capable of having a big game, or making a crucial catch, when called upon. Sanzenbacher has also emerged as a find for the offense this season. Given the experience gap, the Buckeyes get the edge.
Edge: Ohio State
Tight Ends
TE #86 Kevin Koger (6-4, 238, FR, Whitmer HS, Toledo, OH)
Koger is another young player who could develop into a good player at a position that has seen Michigan produce quite a few good players in the recent past. He has not caught a ball the past 3 games, though all 6 of his catches have come in Big Ten play. Senior backup Mike Massey (#83) is a former St. Ignatius product who started 4 games last season before being hit with a serious injury. With 20 career catches, he was expected to have the inside track in the battle for the starting position this year, but has not been a significant factor. Carson Butler's myriad of problems and his move to the defensive side have basically left him as a non-factor.
TE Rating: C+
Head-to-Head: Michigan versus Ohio State TEs
Koger: 6 catches, 93 yards, 1 TD, 15.5 YPR
Nicol: 6 catches, 60 yards, 2 TDs, 10.0 YPR
Ballard: 3 catches, 42 yards, 0 TDs, 14.0 YPR
Koger is a younger player who looks like he could develop into a good one over time. For the Buckeyes, they do not utilize their TE in the passing game much, but Nicol has been a credible blocker and occasional contributor in the passing game. Ballard gives the Buckeyes another occasional option in the passing game. Given the extensive experience edge, the Buckeyes come out ahead here.
Edge: Ohio State
Offensive Line
LT #71 Mark Ortmann (6-7, 287, JR, Klein HS, Klein, TX)
LG #74 John Ferrara (6-4, 283, SO, Monsignor Ferrell HS, Long Island, NY)
C #50 David Molk (6-2, 284, FR, Lemont Township HS, Lemont, IL)
RG #60 David Moosman (6-5, 286, JR, Libertyville HS, Libertyville, IL)
RT #52 Stephen Schilling (6-5, 295, SO, King HS, Bellevue HS, Bellevue, WA)
This line is not as big or physical as Buckeye fans are used to seeing in November. On the Wolverine line, the right side has the most experience and stability. Schilling made several all-freshmen teams last season, starting all 13 Wolverine games on the right side, 11 at tackle and 2 at guard. He is versatile, with quick feet, and decent lateral movement, and has started every game for the Wolverines this season as well. Moosman was an interior reserve the past two seasons, primarily at center, and has taken hold of the RG position in 2008, starting all 11 contests. In the middle, Molk is starting right out of the gate after being a consensus top 5 center prospect coming out of high school, starting every game at the pivot. On the left side, Ortmann started 2 games at right tackle last season, and was expected to battle for that spot, but instead was moved over to the LT position to replace Jake Long, where he had been a backup previously. He has decent height and leverage, and has started 8 games this season at LT, with an additional 2 starts at LG. Ferrara is a converted defensive tackle who played in all 13 games last season, but switched to offense in 2008. He has made 4 starts at a position that has seen its share of flux in 2008.
Down the roster, sophomore Perry Dorrestein (#79) made 3 starts at LT this season after playing sparingly as a backup in 2007. He has good size (6-7, 313) and is more of a traditionally built Michigan lineman. He backs up both tackle spots. Veteran junior Tim McAvoy (#62, 6-6, 284) started 1 game at RG in 2007, and started 5 games at the LG guard position early in the season, and now is a backup along the interior. There is very little else behind them, as Moosman and Ferrara slide around the interior if necessary.
OL Rating: D+
Head-to-Head: Michigan versus Ohio State OL
The Buckeyes have finally started to look like the team they were supposed to be all season. Recent performances, particularly on the road, have been dramatically better than earlier OOC home games where they struggled significantly. The Wolverines have struggled all season adopting their new system, and they have a lot of younger players who are trying to find their way and gel as they play together more. The right side has been more consistent, led by Schilling, and Molk seems to be a very good prospect. In a year or two, this could be a reasonable line, but given the blown assignments and significant struggles of the offense in both the running and passing games, along with the experience factor, the Wolverines do not measure up to the Buckeyes up front in 2008, as they have in many years past.
Edge: Ohio State
Overall Offensive Analysis
As a whole, the Wolverines have looked lost, or at least not on the same page, for much of 2008. Though they have had promising stretches (the first half against Penn State), they often equal or surpass that with stretches of terrible play (the second half against Penn State). Along the way, they failed to put points up against terrible defenses like Toledo, and couldn't score enough, even when they were playing well, against subpar teams like Purdue. Rodriguez has his work cut out for him going forward, not just installing his system, but in finding the types of players who can run it effectively, with the circling albatross of tremendous expectations to win and win quickly that comes with coaching at Michigan. Pat White and Steve Slaton is a once-in-a-generation type of tandem, so it will be difficult to replicate that caliber of playmaker consistently, let along together, even at a football mecca like Michigan. As for this game, the Wolverines will have to establish a ground attack early with Brown or Minor, much like they did against Penn State, and then play a solid 60 minute football game like they did against Minnesota. That might open up some opportunities for completions on the wings, provided the quarterback has the time and ability to deliver the ball quickly and on target. Grabbing some turnovers like the 2nd half of the Wisconsin game wouldn't hut them either, and they had better protect the ball carefully against the Buckeyes, who are constantly itching to set their offense up with a short field and watch Pryor work his magic or Wells pound the opponent into oblivion. It is a daunting task, finishing the season against one of the nation's best defenses with a fledgling offense that has struggled most of the year in a game that has no postseason implications, but it is what the Wolverines are faced with. Look for them to pull out all the stops, use every player available, and do everything they can to be competitive in this, the only football game they could truly hang their collective hats on if they manage to salvage a win. If they do not win, or at least produce a competitive product, the 2008 season will go down as a complete unmitigated disaster, and fans and alumni alike will all be wondering how much better the prospects for 2009 really are.
Overall Offensive Rating: D
Returning Starters:
First year Michigan Defensive Coordinator Scott Shafer inherited a veteran group which includes among its starters 6 seniors and 4 juniors. Shafer joins the Wolverine staff after holding the same position for the Cardinal. Shafer also held the title of Assistant Head Coach and helped the Cardinal stage one of the biggest, if not the biggest, upset in college football history when Stanford beat USC. The Painesville, Ohio, native played one season at Ohio (1985) before transfering to Baldwin-Wallace (1986-1990). He would then enroll at Indiana University where he would obtain a masters degree while also serving as a Graduate Assistant coach (1991-92). From there, Shafer travelled to Rhode Island where he was the secondary coach (1993-1996) before then taking the same position at Northern Illinois (1996-2003). In 2000 he was elevated to Defensive Coordinator, but also coached the secondary. In his time there he coached 13 All-MAC performers. He then took a position with Illinois for one season (2004), before heading up the defense at Western Michigan (2005-2006). Dreadful when he arrived, Shafer helped turn the Broncos around and fielded a team which lead the nation in interceptions (24) and Sacks (46) in his final year before the Stanford job. In spite of this background, however, his first Wolverine defense has struggled, as the numbers below testify.
Stats......|.Pts..|Tot Yds.|Rush.|Pass.|INT...|Fumbl|Sacks.|3rd D..|.pct.|1st Ds|TDs R|TDs P|RedZone|.pct.|Tds...|.pct.|.TOF.|
Michigan...|.27.7.| 362.5..|128.3|234.2|8-85..|24-11|26-186|70-182.|.38%.|..191.|.18..|.16..|33-42..|.79%.|24-42.|.57%.|32:31|
Ohio State.|.13.6.| 286.6 .|115.3|171.4|14-105|20-12|21-156|59-153.|.39%.|..188.|..5..|.10..|19-23..|.83%.|11-23.|.48%.|28:04|
* TOF = Opponents Time of Possession
Opponents Points by Quarter
Team.......|.1st.|.2nd.|.3rd.|.4th.|.TOT.|
Michigan...|.78..|.74..|.66..|.87..|.305.|
Ohio State.|.24..|.50..|.37..|.39..|.150.|
While Wolverine fans have enjoyed some outstanding defenses in recent history, the present unit has been a disappointment. Michigan finds itself 9th in the Big Ten in total defense and 10th in scoring defense. Ohio State is 2nd in both categories behind conference leader, Penn State. Only one team in the conference is worse against the pass (Indiana), but the Wolverines are fair against the run, currently holding the sixth spot in the conference. Ohio State is 2nd in pass defense and 3rd in rushing defense entering the finale. Both Ohio State and Michigan fare about as well on opponent 3rd downs, while the Buckeyes have faced a signifigantly fewer number of chances against them than have the Wolverines. Likewise, while Michigan's red zone defense percentage is slightly better than Ohio State's, they have given up 13 more TDs. Perhaps a critical reason why Michigan has struggled is that they are on the field for more than half the game as the Wolverine offense suffers growing pains in implementing the spread offense. While there is much talk about new Strength and Conditioning Director's influence on the team, the numbers indicate there are still some problems in the area as Michigan has given up more points in the 4th quarter than any other.
The troubles of the defense are compounded by a late season implementation of the 3-3-5 defense. While it would appear that the 3-3-5 is the "base defense" of the future, the late season change indicates that Michigan's once hard hitting and stout defense is now struggling to find an identity. While Michigan may well line up in the 3-3-5 against Ohio State, this preview will examine a base 4-3 look as it has been Michigan's primary defense throughout the year. It should be noted, after starting 3-3-5 against Purdue, they came out in a 4-2-5 against Northwestern. How they approach Ohio State is anyone's guess as Ohio State presents multiple problems represented by the power running of Chris 'Beanie' Wells and the speed running game of Terrelle Pryor.
Defensive Line
LE #55 Brandon Graham (6-2, 270, JR)
LT #97 Will Johnson (6-5, 285, SR)
NT #67 Terrance Taylor (6-0, 319, SR)
RE #90 Tim Jamison (6-3, 263, SR)
Coming in to the season, the senior laden line was touted by some to have the potential to become one of the best in the nation. While inconsistent in 2007, it was anticipated the group would show marked improvement with a learning year under its belt. In terms of rushing yards against, the '08 unit is indeed better by nearly 25 yards per game. Yet, as the anchor of the overall defense, it has allowed more rushing TDs (15 in 2007), and more points generally. Still, there is NFL type talent here and thus there is potential for this unit to put it all together at any given moment.
Graham is a speedy rush end who once ran the 100 in 10.9 seconds. He lead the Wolverines with 8.5 sacks in 2007 as he can get in to the backfield in a hurry. He can improve against the run, but does enough behind the LOS to make up for any troubles there. He leads Michigan with 18 TFLs, and 9 sacks to go along with his 43 tackles. On the other end is Jamison, another potentially unblockable pass rusher who can also stand up against the run. Inconsistent at time, Jamison is second among linemen with 42 tackles, 7.5 for loss with 4.5 sacks. The interior line is anchored by Taylor, a huge physical presence at 319 pounds. Able to clog up the middle, Taylor affords Michigan the chance to play a 3 man front. He has 30 tackles, 4 for loss, 1.5 sacks and 2 fumble recoveries. Rounding out the four-man look is Johnson. Quick, strong and athletic, Johnson has all the measurables to impress NFL scouts come combine day. He should perhaps be a bit more of a playmaker, however, and needs to do better at getting in to opposing backfields and making the play. He has 26 tackles, 2.5 for loss with 2 sacks and a fumble recovery.
Michigan gets its depth from ends; #92 Greg Banks (6-4, 258, JR), #99 Adam Patterson (6-3, 259, JR), and #53 Ryan Van Bergen (6-6, 265, FR), and tackles; #95 Renaldo Sagesse (6-4, 308, SO), and #68 Mike Martin (6-2, 285, FR). Van Bergen got the start in place of Graham against Toledo and has made 11 tackles in his freshman campaign. Statistically, the reserves are lead by Martin's 17 tackles, 4.5 TFLs and two sacks. The highly touted freshman is the future of the interior line and has the potential to become a great one. Banks has played in 6 games, recorded 6 tackles with half a TFL, while Sagesse has 3 tackles in 7 games. Patterson has just 1 tackle in 1 game.
DL Rating: B-
Head-to-Head: Michigan versus OSU DL
Robert Rose 8 Tackles, 1 for loss
Cameron Heyward, 29 tackles, 3 TFL, 2 sacks
Doug Worthington, 25 tackles, 3.5 TFL, .5 sacks, 1 fumble recovery
Thad Gibson 22 tackles, 6 TFL, 4 sacks, 1 fumble recovery (TD)
Ohio State's line has done a better job at stopping the run, preventing scores, getting the sack, and picking up loose footballs. This, despite the better statistical numbers from the Michigan starting four. Perhaps the stats are an indication of Ohio State's free rotation of linemen, and are also affected by the injury to Lawrence Wilson who started most of the year before his injury. In any event, both lines are similar. Michigan has more beef on the inside, though Ohio State has enjoyed the recent excellent play by the bulky Nader Abdallah at the Tackle position. Both teams have speedy rush ends, with Michigan seeing outstanding production from Graham, while Ohio State has seen Thad Gibson develop in to a serious force, and both teams enjoy next level talent. Based on the overall team statistics, the edge has to go to Ohio State, but based on a look at individuals, it would seem Michigan would get the nod. That being the case, and this being a team game, the Buckeyes get the edge here, though as mentioned in last week's preview, the Buckeyes probably merit a B- grade as well.
Edge: Ohio State
Linebackers
SLB #49 John Thompson (6-1, 239, SR)
MLB #45 Obinna Ezeh (6-2, 247, JR)
WLB #8 Jonas Mouton (6-2, 230, JR)
Michigan is replacing the team's second and third leading tacklers from the '07 unit with the departure of Shawn Crable and Chris Graham. Over the course of the last several seasons Michigan has been exploited at the LB positions by teams with a dual threat QB and backfield speed. This group's strength is its speed, though it isn't notably faster than the '07 corps. It will be paramount for the unit to provide the line with assistance containing Terrelle Pryor, while also remaining physical enough to address the power of Beanie Wells.
The lone senior of the group is Thompson, who has starting experience and provides the unit with leadership. Possessing decent speed, Thompson is a sound tackler who can also get it done in coverage. In 10 games Thompson has 48 tackles, 2.5 for loss and a 25 yard INT. If Michigan decides to start in a 4-2-5 look, Thompson is likely the LB who will be replaced. Ezeh is versatile enough to play in the middle or the strong side. Possessing All-Big Ten potential, Ezeh may be Michigan's top LB. A sure tackler, he leads the Wolverines with 96 stops, 7 for loss with a sack to go along with a 18 yard INT and a fumble recovery. Rounding out the starting corps is Mouton who has the speed and athleticism of a safety and a nose for the football. A special teamer in 2007, Mouton is now the team's second leading tackler with 68, 5 for loss with a sack.
Depth comes from; #54 Austin Panter (6-3, 231, SR), and #9 Marell Evans (6-3, 231, SO). Panter is a former JUCO star, earning JUCO national player of the year honors in 2006, who has struggled to live up to his expectations while at Michigan. He is quick enough to be a pass rushing threat, but has not consistently proven he can handle the workload. In 6 games he has 8 tackles, half a sack and a fumble recovery. Evans's strength is probably in coverage, though that shouldn't suggest he's a liability against the run. The sophomore needs to establish he can handle a larger role and will be expected to provide more as time moves forward. He has just 4 tackles in 6 games with half a sack.
LB Rating: B-
Head-to-Head: Michigan versus OSU LBs
Ross Homan 62 tackles, 6 TFLs, 1 sack, 2 fumble recoveries
James Laurinaitis 109 tackles, 4.5 TFLs, 3 sacks, 2 INT
Marcus Freeman 69 tackles, 6.5 TFLs, 3.5 sacks
Ohio State's corps are among the better units in the nation, lead by the multiple award winning senior, James Laurinaitis. It was against Michigan in 2005 when Li'l Animal first established his presence, replacing Bobby Carpenter who left the contest after the first play with a leg injury. As a unit, unlike the D-Line numbers, the Buckeyes LBs are statistically superior at the individual level while also being among the better overall defense. Likewise, the Buckeyes have superior depth and would be better able to handle the load if any of the starters were to miss time come Saturday. While Ohio State has a national reputation of struggling against the Spread Read Option, the perception is not necessarily in accord with reality - and when true at all comes against teamss who are among the top rated offenses, which Michigan is, as yet, not. In any case, as Michigan has now adopted this style of offense, it will be important for the unit to prove early that they are up to the task and will benefit greatly if they make Michigan one-dimensional. Michigan's corps will have its hands full trying to account for the mobile QB while also having to pay special attention to a bruising tailback who only gets stronger as the game progresses, and who went for 222 yards last season in Ann Arbor.
Edge: Ohio State
Secondary
RCB #14 Morgan Trent (6-1, 188, SR)
FS #3 Steve Brown (6-0, 209, JR)
SS #27 Brandon Harrison (5-9, 206, SR)
LCB #6 Donovan Warren (6-0, 180, SO)
As surprised as some Ohio State fans may be by the following, Michigan's secondary proved to be better than expected in 2007. While the unit was exposed early in the year, it rebounded nicely by allowing just 5 TDs through the air in Michigan's final 10 contests. Thus, despite a much maligned reputation (deserved or not), the unit was expected to build on the momentum and become one of the better overall units in the Big Ten. Statistically, however, the Wolverines have failed to evidence much improvement.
During the pre-season, Michigan fans were excited about the return of Morgan Trent. Despite the fact that Trent has had trouble throughout his career when matched up against more skilled wideouts, he is not as bad as some Ohio State fans make him out to be. Likewise, he's not nearly as fast as Michigan fans believe him to be and can still be exposed in coverage, though he has improved as a cover man. He leads the team with 3 picks and has 39 tackles with 2.5 coming for loss. On the other corner is Warren, who started througout his freshman campaign, establishing he has the raw skills to run with just about anyone. He can be counted on to make the tackle and possesses the potential to become one of the better corners at Michigan, though he'll be hard pressed to match the career of Charles Woodson. In any event, he has had a solid sophomore campaign with 48 tackles, 3.5 TFLs, a 15 yard INT and a fumble recovery. Much more will be expected of him in 2009 and Warren should prove to be up to the task. Steve Brown was the starter against Appalachain State, but spent the remainder of the year as a key reserve. With great speed and size, Brown can deliver a blow and can stay with about anyone he's matched up with in coverage. He is second among the secondary, and 4th on the team, in tackles with 60, 1.5 for loss with a sack, a 25 yard INT and a 7 yard fumble return. Harrison has battled back from a shoulder problem and has started each contest for Michigan none-the-less. Taking over for outgoing safety and 2007 leading tackler Jamar Adams, Harrison is solid in coverage and has a good nose for the football. He leads the secondary with 65 tackles, 6 for loss with 2 sacks and 2 picks.
Depth comes from Corners; #29 Troy Woolfolk (6-0, 195, SO), #33 Boubacar Cissoko (5-9, 175, FR), and #35 Doug Dutch (5-11, 204, SR), and Safeties; #5 Charles Stewart (6-2, 206, SR), #40 Michael Williams (5-11, 185, FR), and #38 Artis Chambers (6-0, 202, SO). Cissoko was a huge get for the Wolverines as they try and upgrade the overall talent level of the secondary. Possessing great speed and hitting ability, Cissoko has seen action in each of Michigan's 11 games thus far, recording 14 stops with 1 for loss. Wolfook has played in 10 games and has 9 tackles, while Stewart leads the reserves with 36 tackles and a pick in 11 games. Williams has 14 tackles, 2 for loss with a sack, Chambers has 4 tackles in 9 games, while Dutch has not yet recorded a tackle.
DB Rating: C
Head-to-Head: Michigan versus OSU DBs
Malcolm Jenkins 49 tackles, 3.5 TFLs, 1 sack, 3 INT, 2 Blk Kick
Kurt Coleman 57 tackles, 2 TFLs, 1 Sack, 4 INT
Anderson Russell 55 Tackles, 1 INT, 2 Fumble Rec.
Chimdi Chekwa 17 Tackles, 1 INT
A common refrain throughout the year, Ohio State possesses a clear advantage by the presence of Malcolm Jenkins in the Buckeyes' secondary. Despite the presence of Jenkins, teams have not had particular success attacking the other side of the field which sees sophomore Chimdi Chekwa and Donald Washington split time. Meanwhile, the Wolverines corners have failed to improve on last year's momentum, though they're probably not as bad as the typical Buckeye fan thinks. Warren is probably the closest Michigan has to a Jenkins-like shut down corner, but he still has a ways to go before an honest comparison can be made between them. Ohio State has much more expierience at the safety spots with both Coleman and Russell, with Coleman leading the ballhawking Buckeyes with 4 INTs. Michigan has made efforts to improve the overall talent level of the secondary with recruits like Cissoko and Brandon Smith, but it has yet to translate on to the field. The Buckeyes have more proven depth, but there is more potential in the Wolverines' secondary than they've had in some time. As against each other, however, the edge goes to the Buckeyes who are among the best in the nation (13th overall) while Michigan is near the bottom of the Big Ten statistically.
Edge: Ohio State
Overall Defensive Analysis
Michigan fans cannot be pleased with the play of the Defense in 2008. While the Wolverines are not dreadful, Michigan is typically expected to be at or near the top of the Big Ten statistics and this group simply has not lived up to the pre-season expectations. Remember, of course, that expectations at Michigan are higher than at other places, so the unit is probably not quite as bad as it "feels" like they are. Owing to a coaching change, the stop forces seem to be struggling to find an identity as they fiddle around with base schemes late in the season. Make no mistake, there is talent here and there can be little question that the group is simply itching to go out with a win against the Buckeyes. They will have their work cut out for them, however, as Ohio State brings a good mix of power and speed, particularly with Wells and Pryor. If the Wolverines put speed on the field to try and contain Pryor, Wells may improve on the 222 he put up last season. Likewise, if the Wolverines sell out to stop Wells, Pryor may be able to exploit the edges and is effecient enough a passer to find the open man. While under a different staff, Michigan learned the hard way that you cannot turn your back on a mobile QB (Troy Smith), and thus they may sit in zone a majority of the time. If that is the case, a good push from the D-Line will be extremely important.
On paper, the Buckeyes seem to enjoy an advantage in all phases of the game, but as Buckeye fans are well aware: in The Game you can throw all that out the window. While this preview may read as a little "harsh" towards the Wolverines, the intangibles could turn out to be the biggest factor and this game will probably not end up being any kind of "gimme." Not long ago, it was Michigan which enjoyed the success, winning 10 of 13 matchups during the Cooper years. It will be interesting to see how the new Michigan coaching staff approaches the contest. As Buckeye fans are also aware, sometimes a change at the top makes all the difference in the world. Can Rich Rodriguez turn the momentum of the series around? A strong showing by the Defense will likely go a long way towards the answer to that question.
Overall Defensive Rating: B-
2008 Michigan Wolverines Special Teams PreviewStats......|.Pts..|Tot Yds.|Rush.|Pass.|INT...|Fumbl|Sacks.|3rd D..|.pct.|1st Ds|TDs R|TDs P|RedZone|.pct.|Tds...|.pct.|.TOF.|
Michigan...|.27.7.| 362.5..|128.3|234.2|8-85..|24-11|26-186|70-182.|.38%.|..191.|.18..|.16..|33-42..|.79%.|24-42.|.57%.|32:31|
Ohio State.|.13.6.| 286.6 .|115.3|171.4|14-105|20-12|21-156|59-153.|.39%.|..188.|..5..|.10..|19-23..|.83%.|11-23.|.48%.|28:04|
* TOF = Opponents Time of Possession
Opponents Points by Quarter
Team.......|.1st.|.2nd.|.3rd.|.4th.|.TOT.|
Michigan...|.78..|.74..|.66..|.87..|.305.|
Ohio State.|.24..|.50..|.37..|.39..|.150.|
While Wolverine fans have enjoyed some outstanding defenses in recent history, the present unit has been a disappointment. Michigan finds itself 9th in the Big Ten in total defense and 10th in scoring defense. Ohio State is 2nd in both categories behind conference leader, Penn State. Only one team in the conference is worse against the pass (Indiana), but the Wolverines are fair against the run, currently holding the sixth spot in the conference. Ohio State is 2nd in pass defense and 3rd in rushing defense entering the finale. Both Ohio State and Michigan fare about as well on opponent 3rd downs, while the Buckeyes have faced a signifigantly fewer number of chances against them than have the Wolverines. Likewise, while Michigan's red zone defense percentage is slightly better than Ohio State's, they have given up 13 more TDs. Perhaps a critical reason why Michigan has struggled is that they are on the field for more than half the game as the Wolverine offense suffers growing pains in implementing the spread offense. While there is much talk about new Strength and Conditioning Director's influence on the team, the numbers indicate there are still some problems in the area as Michigan has given up more points in the 4th quarter than any other.
The troubles of the defense are compounded by a late season implementation of the 3-3-5 defense. While it would appear that the 3-3-5 is the "base defense" of the future, the late season change indicates that Michigan's once hard hitting and stout defense is now struggling to find an identity. While Michigan may well line up in the 3-3-5 against Ohio State, this preview will examine a base 4-3 look as it has been Michigan's primary defense throughout the year. It should be noted, after starting 3-3-5 against Purdue, they came out in a 4-2-5 against Northwestern. How they approach Ohio State is anyone's guess as Ohio State presents multiple problems represented by the power running of Chris 'Beanie' Wells and the speed running game of Terrelle Pryor.
Defensive Line
LE #55 Brandon Graham (6-2, 270, JR)
LT #97 Will Johnson (6-5, 285, SR)
NT #67 Terrance Taylor (6-0, 319, SR)
RE #90 Tim Jamison (6-3, 263, SR)
Coming in to the season, the senior laden line was touted by some to have the potential to become one of the best in the nation. While inconsistent in 2007, it was anticipated the group would show marked improvement with a learning year under its belt. In terms of rushing yards against, the '08 unit is indeed better by nearly 25 yards per game. Yet, as the anchor of the overall defense, it has allowed more rushing TDs (15 in 2007), and more points generally. Still, there is NFL type talent here and thus there is potential for this unit to put it all together at any given moment.
Graham is a speedy rush end who once ran the 100 in 10.9 seconds. He lead the Wolverines with 8.5 sacks in 2007 as he can get in to the backfield in a hurry. He can improve against the run, but does enough behind the LOS to make up for any troubles there. He leads Michigan with 18 TFLs, and 9 sacks to go along with his 43 tackles. On the other end is Jamison, another potentially unblockable pass rusher who can also stand up against the run. Inconsistent at time, Jamison is second among linemen with 42 tackles, 7.5 for loss with 4.5 sacks. The interior line is anchored by Taylor, a huge physical presence at 319 pounds. Able to clog up the middle, Taylor affords Michigan the chance to play a 3 man front. He has 30 tackles, 4 for loss, 1.5 sacks and 2 fumble recoveries. Rounding out the four-man look is Johnson. Quick, strong and athletic, Johnson has all the measurables to impress NFL scouts come combine day. He should perhaps be a bit more of a playmaker, however, and needs to do better at getting in to opposing backfields and making the play. He has 26 tackles, 2.5 for loss with 2 sacks and a fumble recovery.
Michigan gets its depth from ends; #92 Greg Banks (6-4, 258, JR), #99 Adam Patterson (6-3, 259, JR), and #53 Ryan Van Bergen (6-6, 265, FR), and tackles; #95 Renaldo Sagesse (6-4, 308, SO), and #68 Mike Martin (6-2, 285, FR). Van Bergen got the start in place of Graham against Toledo and has made 11 tackles in his freshman campaign. Statistically, the reserves are lead by Martin's 17 tackles, 4.5 TFLs and two sacks. The highly touted freshman is the future of the interior line and has the potential to become a great one. Banks has played in 6 games, recorded 6 tackles with half a TFL, while Sagesse has 3 tackles in 7 games. Patterson has just 1 tackle in 1 game.
DL Rating: B-
Head-to-Head: Michigan versus OSU DL
Robert Rose 8 Tackles, 1 for loss
Cameron Heyward, 29 tackles, 3 TFL, 2 sacks
Doug Worthington, 25 tackles, 3.5 TFL, .5 sacks, 1 fumble recovery
Thad Gibson 22 tackles, 6 TFL, 4 sacks, 1 fumble recovery (TD)
Ohio State's line has done a better job at stopping the run, preventing scores, getting the sack, and picking up loose footballs. This, despite the better statistical numbers from the Michigan starting four. Perhaps the stats are an indication of Ohio State's free rotation of linemen, and are also affected by the injury to Lawrence Wilson who started most of the year before his injury. In any event, both lines are similar. Michigan has more beef on the inside, though Ohio State has enjoyed the recent excellent play by the bulky Nader Abdallah at the Tackle position. Both teams have speedy rush ends, with Michigan seeing outstanding production from Graham, while Ohio State has seen Thad Gibson develop in to a serious force, and both teams enjoy next level talent. Based on the overall team statistics, the edge has to go to Ohio State, but based on a look at individuals, it would seem Michigan would get the nod. That being the case, and this being a team game, the Buckeyes get the edge here, though as mentioned in last week's preview, the Buckeyes probably merit a B- grade as well.
Edge: Ohio State
Linebackers
SLB #49 John Thompson (6-1, 239, SR)
MLB #45 Obinna Ezeh (6-2, 247, JR)
WLB #8 Jonas Mouton (6-2, 230, JR)
Michigan is replacing the team's second and third leading tacklers from the '07 unit with the departure of Shawn Crable and Chris Graham. Over the course of the last several seasons Michigan has been exploited at the LB positions by teams with a dual threat QB and backfield speed. This group's strength is its speed, though it isn't notably faster than the '07 corps. It will be paramount for the unit to provide the line with assistance containing Terrelle Pryor, while also remaining physical enough to address the power of Beanie Wells.
The lone senior of the group is Thompson, who has starting experience and provides the unit with leadership. Possessing decent speed, Thompson is a sound tackler who can also get it done in coverage. In 10 games Thompson has 48 tackles, 2.5 for loss and a 25 yard INT. If Michigan decides to start in a 4-2-5 look, Thompson is likely the LB who will be replaced. Ezeh is versatile enough to play in the middle or the strong side. Possessing All-Big Ten potential, Ezeh may be Michigan's top LB. A sure tackler, he leads the Wolverines with 96 stops, 7 for loss with a sack to go along with a 18 yard INT and a fumble recovery. Rounding out the starting corps is Mouton who has the speed and athleticism of a safety and a nose for the football. A special teamer in 2007, Mouton is now the team's second leading tackler with 68, 5 for loss with a sack.
Depth comes from; #54 Austin Panter (6-3, 231, SR), and #9 Marell Evans (6-3, 231, SO). Panter is a former JUCO star, earning JUCO national player of the year honors in 2006, who has struggled to live up to his expectations while at Michigan. He is quick enough to be a pass rushing threat, but has not consistently proven he can handle the workload. In 6 games he has 8 tackles, half a sack and a fumble recovery. Evans's strength is probably in coverage, though that shouldn't suggest he's a liability against the run. The sophomore needs to establish he can handle a larger role and will be expected to provide more as time moves forward. He has just 4 tackles in 6 games with half a sack.
LB Rating: B-
Head-to-Head: Michigan versus OSU LBs
Ross Homan 62 tackles, 6 TFLs, 1 sack, 2 fumble recoveries
James Laurinaitis 109 tackles, 4.5 TFLs, 3 sacks, 2 INT
Marcus Freeman 69 tackles, 6.5 TFLs, 3.5 sacks
Ohio State's corps are among the better units in the nation, lead by the multiple award winning senior, James Laurinaitis. It was against Michigan in 2005 when Li'l Animal first established his presence, replacing Bobby Carpenter who left the contest after the first play with a leg injury. As a unit, unlike the D-Line numbers, the Buckeyes LBs are statistically superior at the individual level while also being among the better overall defense. Likewise, the Buckeyes have superior depth and would be better able to handle the load if any of the starters were to miss time come Saturday. While Ohio State has a national reputation of struggling against the Spread Read Option, the perception is not necessarily in accord with reality - and when true at all comes against teamss who are among the top rated offenses, which Michigan is, as yet, not. In any case, as Michigan has now adopted this style of offense, it will be important for the unit to prove early that they are up to the task and will benefit greatly if they make Michigan one-dimensional. Michigan's corps will have its hands full trying to account for the mobile QB while also having to pay special attention to a bruising tailback who only gets stronger as the game progresses, and who went for 222 yards last season in Ann Arbor.
Edge: Ohio State
Secondary
RCB #14 Morgan Trent (6-1, 188, SR)
FS #3 Steve Brown (6-0, 209, JR)
SS #27 Brandon Harrison (5-9, 206, SR)
LCB #6 Donovan Warren (6-0, 180, SO)
As surprised as some Ohio State fans may be by the following, Michigan's secondary proved to be better than expected in 2007. While the unit was exposed early in the year, it rebounded nicely by allowing just 5 TDs through the air in Michigan's final 10 contests. Thus, despite a much maligned reputation (deserved or not), the unit was expected to build on the momentum and become one of the better overall units in the Big Ten. Statistically, however, the Wolverines have failed to evidence much improvement.
During the pre-season, Michigan fans were excited about the return of Morgan Trent. Despite the fact that Trent has had trouble throughout his career when matched up against more skilled wideouts, he is not as bad as some Ohio State fans make him out to be. Likewise, he's not nearly as fast as Michigan fans believe him to be and can still be exposed in coverage, though he has improved as a cover man. He leads the team with 3 picks and has 39 tackles with 2.5 coming for loss. On the other corner is Warren, who started througout his freshman campaign, establishing he has the raw skills to run with just about anyone. He can be counted on to make the tackle and possesses the potential to become one of the better corners at Michigan, though he'll be hard pressed to match the career of Charles Woodson. In any event, he has had a solid sophomore campaign with 48 tackles, 3.5 TFLs, a 15 yard INT and a fumble recovery. Much more will be expected of him in 2009 and Warren should prove to be up to the task. Steve Brown was the starter against Appalachain State, but spent the remainder of the year as a key reserve. With great speed and size, Brown can deliver a blow and can stay with about anyone he's matched up with in coverage. He is second among the secondary, and 4th on the team, in tackles with 60, 1.5 for loss with a sack, a 25 yard INT and a 7 yard fumble return. Harrison has battled back from a shoulder problem and has started each contest for Michigan none-the-less. Taking over for outgoing safety and 2007 leading tackler Jamar Adams, Harrison is solid in coverage and has a good nose for the football. He leads the secondary with 65 tackles, 6 for loss with 2 sacks and 2 picks.
Depth comes from Corners; #29 Troy Woolfolk (6-0, 195, SO), #33 Boubacar Cissoko (5-9, 175, FR), and #35 Doug Dutch (5-11, 204, SR), and Safeties; #5 Charles Stewart (6-2, 206, SR), #40 Michael Williams (5-11, 185, FR), and #38 Artis Chambers (6-0, 202, SO). Cissoko was a huge get for the Wolverines as they try and upgrade the overall talent level of the secondary. Possessing great speed and hitting ability, Cissoko has seen action in each of Michigan's 11 games thus far, recording 14 stops with 1 for loss. Wolfook has played in 10 games and has 9 tackles, while Stewart leads the reserves with 36 tackles and a pick in 11 games. Williams has 14 tackles, 2 for loss with a sack, Chambers has 4 tackles in 9 games, while Dutch has not yet recorded a tackle.
DB Rating: C
Head-to-Head: Michigan versus OSU DBs
Malcolm Jenkins 49 tackles, 3.5 TFLs, 1 sack, 3 INT, 2 Blk Kick
Kurt Coleman 57 tackles, 2 TFLs, 1 Sack, 4 INT
Anderson Russell 55 Tackles, 1 INT, 2 Fumble Rec.
Chimdi Chekwa 17 Tackles, 1 INT
A common refrain throughout the year, Ohio State possesses a clear advantage by the presence of Malcolm Jenkins in the Buckeyes' secondary. Despite the presence of Jenkins, teams have not had particular success attacking the other side of the field which sees sophomore Chimdi Chekwa and Donald Washington split time. Meanwhile, the Wolverines corners have failed to improve on last year's momentum, though they're probably not as bad as the typical Buckeye fan thinks. Warren is probably the closest Michigan has to a Jenkins-like shut down corner, but he still has a ways to go before an honest comparison can be made between them. Ohio State has much more expierience at the safety spots with both Coleman and Russell, with Coleman leading the ballhawking Buckeyes with 4 INTs. Michigan has made efforts to improve the overall talent level of the secondary with recruits like Cissoko and Brandon Smith, but it has yet to translate on to the field. The Buckeyes have more proven depth, but there is more potential in the Wolverines' secondary than they've had in some time. As against each other, however, the edge goes to the Buckeyes who are among the best in the nation (13th overall) while Michigan is near the bottom of the Big Ten statistically.
Edge: Ohio State
Overall Defensive Analysis
Michigan fans cannot be pleased with the play of the Defense in 2008. While the Wolverines are not dreadful, Michigan is typically expected to be at or near the top of the Big Ten statistics and this group simply has not lived up to the pre-season expectations. Remember, of course, that expectations at Michigan are higher than at other places, so the unit is probably not quite as bad as it "feels" like they are. Owing to a coaching change, the stop forces seem to be struggling to find an identity as they fiddle around with base schemes late in the season. Make no mistake, there is talent here and there can be little question that the group is simply itching to go out with a win against the Buckeyes. They will have their work cut out for them, however, as Ohio State brings a good mix of power and speed, particularly with Wells and Pryor. If the Wolverines put speed on the field to try and contain Pryor, Wells may improve on the 222 he put up last season. Likewise, if the Wolverines sell out to stop Wells, Pryor may be able to exploit the edges and is effecient enough a passer to find the open man. While under a different staff, Michigan learned the hard way that you cannot turn your back on a mobile QB (Troy Smith), and thus they may sit in zone a majority of the time. If that is the case, a good push from the D-Line will be extremely important.
On paper, the Buckeyes seem to enjoy an advantage in all phases of the game, but as Buckeye fans are well aware: in The Game you can throw all that out the window. While this preview may read as a little "harsh" towards the Wolverines, the intangibles could turn out to be the biggest factor and this game will probably not end up being any kind of "gimme." Not long ago, it was Michigan which enjoyed the success, winning 10 of 13 matchups during the Cooper years. It will be interesting to see how the new Michigan coaching staff approaches the contest. As Buckeye fans are also aware, sometimes a change at the top makes all the difference in the world. Can Rich Rodriguez turn the momentum of the series around? A strong showing by the Defense will likely go a long way towards the answer to that question.
Overall Defensive Rating: B-
Returning Starters: 4
2007 Stats
Punting: Zoltan Mesko, 70 for 2876 yds, 41.09 avg, 53rd in the Nation
Punt Returns: Greg Mathews, 28 for 224 yds, 8.00 avg, 61st in the Nation
Kickoff Returns: No one in top 100
Punt Return Defense: 29 for 211 yds, 7.28 avg, 38th in the Nation
Kickoff Return Defense: 52 for 1173 yds, 22.56 avg, 87th in the Nation
2008 Stats
Kicking: K.C. Lopata 10-14 FGs, 26-28 PATS, 56 pts
Punting: Zoltan Mesko, 68 for 2998 yds, 44.09 avg, 10th in the Nation
Punt Returns: Martavious Odoms 9 for 123 yds, 1 TD, 13.7 avg
Kickoff Returns: Martavious Odoms, 18 for 418 yds, 23.2 avg; Boubacar Cissoko 16 for 384 yds, 24 avg
Punt Return Defense: 16 for 55 yds, 3.44 avg, 6th in the Nation
Kickoff Return Defense: 46 for 950 yds, 20.65 avg, 52nd in the Nation
The Michigan Wolverines bring a solid set of Special Teams into The Game this weekend at Ohio Stadium. Their punting and punt defense teams are among the best in the country. Kickoff and kickoff defense are average, but Cissoko and Odoms are speedsters that must be contained. The Buckeyes would like to duplicate last week's outstanding performance on Special Teams to keep this one from being close.
Special Teams
P #41 Zoltan Mesko (6-5, 235, Jr., Twinsburg HS, Twinsburg, OH)
PK #84 K.C. Lopata (6-2, 233, Sr., Farmington HS, Farminton, MI)
PR/KR #9 Martavious Odoms (5-9, 171, Fr., Pahokee HS, Pahokee, FL)
KR #33 Boubacar Cissoko (5-9, 175, Fr., Cass Technical HS, Detroit, MI)
LS #59 Sean Griffin (6-2, 243, Sr., Catholic Central HS, Livonia, MI)
Odoms and Cissoko are speedy returners for whom OSU must account if they are going to Michigan from keeping it close by winning the battle for field position. Zoltan Mesko (sounds like a villain from "Flash Gordon" doesn't he?) is a sound punter and is averaging over 44 yds per punt. Both the punt return and kickoff return defenses are solid, if unspectacular. Michigan must win the battle of field position if they hope to upset the Buckeyes
ST Rating: B+
Head-to-Head: Odoms vs OSU punt return defense
The Buckeyes bring an excellent punt return defense into THE GAME, ranking 10th in the country by allowing only 4 yds per return. Odoms is a speedster and the Buckeyes must be sure in their tackling to prevent him from breaking any big returns. Slight edge to the Buckeyes here.
Edge: Ohio State
Head-to-Head: Odoms/Cissoko vs OSU kickoff return defense
The Buckeyes are tremendous in kickoff return defense ranking a impressive 2nd in the Nation in yds per return (behind only Notre Dame). Again, Odoms and Cissoko are quick and elusive, but I believe OSU keeps them contained.
Edge: Ohio State
Head-to-Head: Saine/Wells/Thomas vs UM kickoff return defense
This will be an interesting battle. OSU has struggled all year in returning kickoffs. They currently rank 104th in the Nation with only a 19.19 yd average per return. Michigan is 52nd in the Nation, allowing 20.65 yds per return. This will be an interesting "game within the game" to watch.
Edge: Michigan
Head-to-Head: Robiske/Hartline vs UM punt return defense
This is shaping up to be a real competitive battle. The Blue is 6th in the Nation in punt returns, allowing only 3.44 yds per return. The Buckeyes are 30th in the Nation averaging over 11 yds per return. This may turn out to be a crucial battle for field position if Michigan's defense and offense do their part.
Edge: Even
Overall Special Teams Analysis
Michigan brings some of the most solid Special Teams units Ohio State has played all year. As usual in THE GAME, a big play in Special Teams could be a determining factor. Michigan must hope for big plays and to keep the Buckeyes from making them if they want to have a chance.
Overall Special Teams Rating: B+
PredictionsPunting: Zoltan Mesko, 70 for 2876 yds, 41.09 avg, 53rd in the Nation
Punt Returns: Greg Mathews, 28 for 224 yds, 8.00 avg, 61st in the Nation
Kickoff Returns: No one in top 100
Punt Return Defense: 29 for 211 yds, 7.28 avg, 38th in the Nation
Kickoff Return Defense: 52 for 1173 yds, 22.56 avg, 87th in the Nation
2008 Stats
Kicking: K.C. Lopata 10-14 FGs, 26-28 PATS, 56 pts
Punting: Zoltan Mesko, 68 for 2998 yds, 44.09 avg, 10th in the Nation
Punt Returns: Martavious Odoms 9 for 123 yds, 1 TD, 13.7 avg
Kickoff Returns: Martavious Odoms, 18 for 418 yds, 23.2 avg; Boubacar Cissoko 16 for 384 yds, 24 avg
Punt Return Defense: 16 for 55 yds, 3.44 avg, 6th in the Nation
Kickoff Return Defense: 46 for 950 yds, 20.65 avg, 52nd in the Nation
The Michigan Wolverines bring a solid set of Special Teams into The Game this weekend at Ohio Stadium. Their punting and punt defense teams are among the best in the country. Kickoff and kickoff defense are average, but Cissoko and Odoms are speedsters that must be contained. The Buckeyes would like to duplicate last week's outstanding performance on Special Teams to keep this one from being close.
Special Teams
P #41 Zoltan Mesko (6-5, 235, Jr., Twinsburg HS, Twinsburg, OH)
PK #84 K.C. Lopata (6-2, 233, Sr., Farmington HS, Farminton, MI)
PR/KR #9 Martavious Odoms (5-9, 171, Fr., Pahokee HS, Pahokee, FL)
KR #33 Boubacar Cissoko (5-9, 175, Fr., Cass Technical HS, Detroit, MI)
LS #59 Sean Griffin (6-2, 243, Sr., Catholic Central HS, Livonia, MI)
Odoms and Cissoko are speedy returners for whom OSU must account if they are going to Michigan from keeping it close by winning the battle for field position. Zoltan Mesko (sounds like a villain from "Flash Gordon" doesn't he?) is a sound punter and is averaging over 44 yds per punt. Both the punt return and kickoff return defenses are solid, if unspectacular. Michigan must win the battle of field position if they hope to upset the Buckeyes
ST Rating: B+
Head-to-Head: Odoms vs OSU punt return defense
The Buckeyes bring an excellent punt return defense into THE GAME, ranking 10th in the country by allowing only 4 yds per return. Odoms is a speedster and the Buckeyes must be sure in their tackling to prevent him from breaking any big returns. Slight edge to the Buckeyes here.
Edge: Ohio State
Head-to-Head: Odoms/Cissoko vs OSU kickoff return defense
The Buckeyes are tremendous in kickoff return defense ranking a impressive 2nd in the Nation in yds per return (behind only Notre Dame). Again, Odoms and Cissoko are quick and elusive, but I believe OSU keeps them contained.
Edge: Ohio State
Head-to-Head: Saine/Wells/Thomas vs UM kickoff return defense
This will be an interesting battle. OSU has struggled all year in returning kickoffs. They currently rank 104th in the Nation with only a 19.19 yd average per return. Michigan is 52nd in the Nation, allowing 20.65 yds per return. This will be an interesting "game within the game" to watch.
Edge: Michigan
Head-to-Head: Robiske/Hartline vs UM punt return defense
This is shaping up to be a real competitive battle. The Blue is 6th in the Nation in punt returns, allowing only 3.44 yds per return. The Buckeyes are 30th in the Nation averaging over 11 yds per return. This may turn out to be a crucial battle for field position if Michigan's defense and offense do their part.
Edge: Even
Overall Special Teams Analysis
Michigan brings some of the most solid Special Teams units Ohio State has played all year. As usual in THE GAME, a big play in Special Teams could be a determining factor. Michigan must hope for big plays and to keep the Buckeyes from making them if they want to have a chance.
Overall Special Teams Rating: B+
BB73's prediction: 31-13, Ohio State
BuckeyeRyn's prediction: ??-??, Ohio State
Buckeyeskickbuttocks' prediction: 38-10, Ohio State
Bucklion's prediction: 31-13, Ohio State
DaddyBigBucks's prediction: 36-0, Ohio State
jwinslow's prediction: 41-10, Ohio State
JCOSU's Prediction: 28-7, Ohio State
3yardsandacloud's prediction: gazillion - 2, Ohio State (or 48 - 10, which ever is closer)
Previous Game's Results (OSU 30 - Illinois 20)
Low score wins the year long battle of prediction supremacy! (Difference of actual score versus predicted score. 10 point penalty for picking the losing team.)
(203) jwinslow's prediction: 34-24, Ohio State (8 + 195 last week = 203)
(214) Bucklion's prediction: 38-31, Ohio State (19 + 195 last week = 214)
(217) DaddyBigBucks's prediction: 38-23, Ohio State (11 + 206 last week = 217)
(224) JCOSU86's prediction: 38-10, Ohio State (18 + 206 last week = 224)
(234) Buckeyeskickbuttocks' prediction: 34-14, Ohio State (10 + 224 last week = 234)
(244) BB73's prediction: 20-10, Ohio State (20 + 224 last week = 244)
(244) 3yardsandacloud's prediction: 28-21, Ohio State (3 + 241 last week = 244)
(253) BuckeyeRyn's prediction: 24-17, Ohio State (9 + 244 last week = 253)
Adjusted scores for weeks missed. Participant must take the highest score from the week they missed.
BuckeyeRyn's prediction: ??-??, Ohio State
Buckeyeskickbuttocks' prediction: 38-10, Ohio State
Bucklion's prediction: 31-13, Ohio State
DaddyBigBucks's prediction: 36-0, Ohio State
jwinslow's prediction: 41-10, Ohio State
JCOSU's Prediction: 28-7, Ohio State
3yardsandacloud's prediction: gazillion - 2, Ohio State (or 48 - 10, which ever is closer)
Previous Game's Results (OSU 30 - Illinois 20)
Low score wins the year long battle of prediction supremacy! (Difference of actual score versus predicted score. 10 point penalty for picking the losing team.)
(203) jwinslow's prediction: 34-24, Ohio State (8 + 195 last week = 203)
(214) Bucklion's prediction: 38-31, Ohio State (19 + 195 last week = 214)
(217) DaddyBigBucks's prediction: 38-23, Ohio State (11 + 206 last week = 217)
(224) JCOSU86's prediction: 38-10, Ohio State (18 + 206 last week = 224)
(234) Buckeyeskickbuttocks' prediction: 34-14, Ohio State (10 + 224 last week = 234)
(244) BB73's prediction: 20-10, Ohio State (20 + 224 last week = 244)
(244) 3yardsandacloud's prediction: 28-21, Ohio State (3 + 241 last week = 244)
(253) BuckeyeRyn's prediction: 24-17, Ohio State (9 + 244 last week = 253)
Adjusted scores for weeks missed. Participant must take the highest score from the week they missed.
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