COMMENTARY
Flawed preseason polls have long-term implications
Saturday, August 05, 2006
ROB OLLER
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College football coaches love to remind us that how a team enters the season matters less than how it exits.
True, but never underestimate where a team enters the season, because it matters. A lot.
Ohio State is king of the hill today — the Buckeyes are No. 1 in the USA Today coaches preseason poll — which is more than just a ceremonial title.
If the king of the preseason poll loses early in the regular season, it can count on remaining among the rankings royalty, defined as the top 10. But a college program that begins the season at, say, No. 7 or below, joins the ranks of the peasantry if it stumbles out of the gate.
If the goal is to complete the regular season ranked No. 1 or No. 2 in the BCS ratings, thereby gaining entry into the BCS championship game, then it’s easier to climb back into con- tention from the second row than from the nosebleed seats.
Some will see the Buckeyes’ No. 1 ranking as nothing more than another slam on No. 15 Michigan, but the reality is that an undefeated UM could conceivably enter the Nov. 18 game against Ohio State still ranked below a one-loss OSU.
Such is the power of potential, and such is the flawed premise of this preseason poll, that a team such as Ohio State, which must replace nine starters on defense, is ranked No. 1 before practice begins.
Not that any other team deserves to be ranked ahead of the Buckeyes, but it would be nice to see how things shake out through three or four games before breaking out a poll based on how good a team should be. In 2002, the coaches ranked OSU No. 13 in the preseason. The Buckeyes went on to win the national title. In 2003, they were No. 2 before the season began and finished No. 4. So the preseason can be almost right, or very wrong.
If BCS bigwigs really want to turn over every stone in search of a true national champion — minus a playoff system — they should insist that the first coaches poll not appear until at least late September.
The 31-member coaches poll is one of three components the BCS uses to determine its weekly rankings, which don’t appear until Oct. 15. The other two are the Harris Interactive Poll and an average of six computer rankings.
But the coaches poll is the only one to "predetermine" which schools have the best chance to win the national championship.
The Harris Poll, composed of 115 former players, coaches, administrators and current and former media members, does not appear until late September. Last season, it was first released four weeks into the season.
By waiting, the coaches could avoid the embarrassment of voting Oklahoma No. 5 in the preseason. The Sooners’ prospects diminished significantly this week when starting quarterback Rhett Bomar and offensive lineman J.D. Quinn were kicked off the team for receiving money for work they didn’t do.
Unfortunately, the coaches’ votes had already been tallied.
While it’s likely Oklahoma will drop in the polls — assuming the Sooners won’t excel under replacement quarterback Paul Thompson — voting them No. 5 displaced a more worthy team.
Ironically, coaches typically loathe patting players and programs on the back who might become good, but that’s exactly what they’re doing with the preseason poll.
It smells of control-freak coaches enjoying the influence they wield over voters. Make no mistake that some Harris Poll voters — and more than a few voters in the now toothless Associated Press poll — will base some of their initial voting decisions on where teams already stand in the coaches rankings. That, in turn, affects the BCS standings. By releasing its preseason poll when it does, USA Today also benefits from readership in an otherwise poll-free time of the year.
Is the preseason poll fun to discuss? Yes. Is it harmless? Hardly. That’s good news for the Buckeyes, unless they let the headlines and hype go to their heads.
Rob Oller is a sports reporter for The Dispatch.
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