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Game Thread #1 tOSU at Washington, Sat. Sept. 27th, 3:30 ET, CBS

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Could just be a lot of people being unconvinced of OSUs red zone offense after Ohio. Turn TDs into FGs and 35-21 becomes 27-21 as a hypothetical score.

Plus first road game for a young team, and on the West coast. Enough to make people doubt.

OSU should get a number of big plays, but if they don’t break them for TDs it may be an issue. Sayin will need to be more willing to scramble in the RZ.
 
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muffler dragon said:
Is the "10" being a threshold a psychological thing or something more/different?
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Key numbers in football are 3, 10,17 etc

Most common combination of scores one team can win by. FG, FG+TD etc.

That’s why favorites of less than 3 seem like “free money”. If a team wins, chances are it’s going to win by a FG at least.
 
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Buck I in Mich said:
I’m not worried because a good defense usually travels well. 24-13 good guys.
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I just don't see how they hold this offense to 24 points. These reciever, tight ends, and now Bo Jackson... it's just overwhelming.

Agree defense wins championships, especially in the bigten when the weather goes to shit. Its supposed to be 65-70degrees with 3-6mph wind. So basically perfect weather. I just feel a total beatdown in my bones
 
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buchtelgrad04 said:
I definitely hear you.

But check Ryan Day’s track record with a first year starter on his first road start. 24 passing attempts for Justin. 22 for CJ. 33 for Kyle, but a lot of those were extensions of the run game with screens and short passes because the run game was terrible. And none of those teams posed an offensive threat that this Washington team does, so he didn’t have the incentive to keep them off the field.

He doesn’t take risks. And with a dominant defense, he has more room to play conservative.
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This is exactly right.

Also, don't forget Day's long-term strategy of less plays per game to keep his players fresh for a potential 16-game season, a strategy that worked pretty well last year. So don't expect an offensive explosion in week four in a West Coast game against a team that can compete in a track meet.
 
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MGMT said:
This would be irritating as hell. You’re harming the team’s offensive development overall if you pull some shit like that and you’re increasing the risk of losing.

Get Sayin acclimated to throwing a higher volume of passes as you gear up for conference play and ultimate the end of November. It’s absolutely inexcusable to not do so with this caliber of surrounding talent. It sounds more egregious than 2015.

Not to mention if being conservative becomes a norm with this offense tell me Smith won’t field offers to transfer to a Florida school.

Sheer negligence. Moving forward tje defensive output should have absolutely no influence on offensive game planning imo. Establish yourself or ger on all fours and take another fucking at the end of the season; they cannot stand for that.

Sorry don’t mean to come off as aggressive toward you directly; that shit got me fired up unexpectedly.
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Not only that but if we are going to go for the repeat this won’t be the last time we play someone good. You can’t just go into a shell at the very first sign of difficulty.

If we play UGA we aren’t running the ball for 200+ to win the game 21-14. You have to be able to throw the ball vs teams with elite defenses. Washington does not have an elite defense and that’s with having played no one that could test them.

Stay aggressive and weaponize having the most accurate QB in the country.
 
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Jaxbuck said:
It's moved down to -7.5 in most places.

With a big public money team like OSU, opening the spread high and then adjusting down won't help really because most public money bets late. Only the sharps tend to jump on weak lines early.

This one got hammered down. Breaking through 10 is a big tell. The only thing that makes sense at all is they took some serious sharp money north of 10 and moved it down for that reason.

Now, sometimes syndicates will play the game where they hit one side of a number to give that signal of sharp money so the books will move the line down and then they go 2x or more on the better number but again, OSU being such a big public team negates that. That type of thing is usually done (allegedly) on smaller, less liquid market type games.

Could be a lot of noise signaling nothing but a line dropping from -13 to -7.5 is something worth being aware of. I would not feel super comfortable if I held an OSU -13 ticket right now.
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If Ohio state wins by 10 then vegas is going to lose a lot of money. The early sharp money on Washington and late public money on Ohio state will both cash.
 
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