Matt Tamanini
Guest
You’re Nuts: What team outside the initial CFP top four is most likely to get a berth?
Matt Tamanini via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Christopher Creveling-USA TODAY Sports
Your (almost) daily dose of good-natured, Ohio State banter.
Everybody knows that one of the best parts of being a sports fan is debating and dissecting the most (and least) important questions in the sporting world with your friends. So, we’re bringing that to the pages of LGHL with our favorite head-to-head column: You’re Nuts.
In You’re Nuts, two LGHL staff members will take differing sides of one question and argue their opinions passionately. Then, in the end, it’s up to you to determine who’s right and who’s nuts.
With the first round of College Football Playoff rankings released Tuesday, it’s time to ramp up debates around the validity of the Selection Committee’s decision-making.
There’s nothing too surprising about the Top 4 as it stands today, but while I certainly have no complaints about my alma mater Ohio State being ranked No. 1, it’s likely at least some of the top four (currently Ohio State, Georgia, Michigan, and Florida State, in order) will see a shake-up before the season is out.
Certainly, Ohio State and Michigan still have to play each other, so there’s a good chance at least one of those teams won’t make the playoffs (though as we know from last season, it is not impossible).
I do also think this is a season in which it’s anyone’s guess. There are some very, very good football teams, and there are some decent football teams that have had absolutely stellar games. But there’s no one in the field this season that looks professional, the way Georgia, Alabama, or even Ohio State, Clemson, and Michigan have in recent memory. The field feels a little more evenly matched, and that means both intangible things like how the team is gelling, and tangible things like remaining opponents can factor in.
Coming up behind our top four, we’ve got the No. 5 Washington Huskies, led by Heisman hopeful quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and the only unbeaten team outside of the top 4, followed by No. 6 Oregon, No. 7 Texas, and No. 8 Alabama. I can’t emphasize enough how much any of these teams could make it.
Just last week, I was saying Oklahoma had to get through a tough game against Kansas (but a game in which the Sooners were favored) and then it was fairly smooth sailing to the end of the season for them. They lost to Kansas and now they’re sitting at No. 9.
With five undefeated teams so far (two of whom will play each other), the highest number of undefeated teams we could have—if all of them win out—is four. Assuming each unbeaten team got a playoff spot, that would put our top four (in no particular order) as Georgia, Florida State, Washington, and the winner of Ohio State and Michigan.
However, Washington’s schedule for the remainder of the season is absolutely brutal. They face No. 24 USC this weekend on the road, then No. 18 Utah and No. 16 Oregon State on the road before finishing their regular season against Washington State. By the time they get to Washington State, they’ll have had three consecutive games against ranked opponents, something that can physically slow down even the toughest of teams. It’s hard on your bodies to play at that level so many weeks in a row, and that’s assuming you walk away without injury.
Add to that the fact that while Washington has had moments of absolute brilliance this season and the fact that they have a force at quarterback, the team as a whole has looked a bit shaky.
Penix Jr., with the exception of the game against an unranked Arizona State, has played mind-blowing football. Last week against Stanford, he threw for 369 yards and four touchdowns—his FIFTH game this season with four touchdowns.
Still, the team didn’t look like a top-four team against Stanford, and they certainly didn’t look like a top 4 team against ASU. I’m not feeling confident, given their last two weeks, that they’ll win out with three ranked opponents remaining.
Assuming they drop at least one game, at least one team with a loss will make the playoffs.
I don’t think it will be Washington. Instead, I think they will be leapfrogged by a team they handed a loss to earlier this season—No. 6 Oregon.
Oregon, for its part, lost to Washington by only a field goal in a barn burner of a game. While they have games against two of the same ranked opponents as Washington (No. 24 USC and No. 16 Oregon State), both these marquee games are home games for Oregon and they ultimately have a (slightly) easier route to the end of the season as they’ve already played Utah.
Given as much, Oregon has the opportunity to win out at a time when they are playing their best football. Their quarterback Bo Nix, for his part, is absolutely part of the Heisman conversation after an electric performance helped him lead the Ducks to a blowout over Utah this past weekend.
The thing Nix has that Washington doesn’t? The intangibles. Oregon is vibing now—they’re playing their best football at the time it matters most.
If Washington loses its only game toward the end of the season, we also have to consider recency bias (the idea that a loss later in the season hurts more than one earlier on, as you have less time to prove yourself again). Sure, Washington beat Oregon mid-season, but if Oregon wins out and Washington loses a game to any of the three ranked opponents, it will mean Washington also lost a game to a team Oregon beat.
Oregon already curb-stomped Utah. So particularly if Oregon has dominant performances against Oregon State and USC and Washington looks lukewarm AND has a loss, it could be enough for Oregon to leapfrog them despite having lost to them.
I do think ultimately when the end of the season rolls around, that’s what we’re going to see: An Oregon team that dominates the rest of its schedule leapfrogging a Washington team who stockpiled a bunch of tough games for the last month of the season at a time when they already look shaky.
The Ducks might need a little luck on their side, but I do think we’re looking at some Lucky Ducks this year (and Lucky Us because the Duck mascot rules).
I think Jami’s selection of Oregon is a really strong one, as — despite their loss to Washington — I think they are the best team in the Pac-12 and would be my pick to win the conference title. However, there is a very large elephant in the room that we just can’t overlook in the College Football Playoff discussion, and that is the Alabama Crimson Tide.
It wasn’t that long ago that Nick Saban’s squad lost to Texas and essentially everyone in the college football world wrote them off, but they are still lurking around the proverbial chicken coop as they prepare to host No. 13 LSU today in a game that could determine the eventual winner of the SEC West. While I know Ole Miss is still in the mix in that division, they haven’t played Alabama yet, which I think will be an L and push them out of the mix, SEC tiebreakers notwithstanding.
Nonetheless, if ‘Bama comes out of the West and faces off against Georgia, I am not putting it past them to win the SEC crown and coast into the playoffs. The Dawgs have looked better in recent weeks against substandard competition, but when playing anyone with a pulse this season have been less than impressive. Today marks the start of three straight games in which UGA will face ranked opponents, which will obviously tell us a lot about who they actually are.
But whether or not they emerge from this November run unscathed or not, I think that whichever East team plays for the title could have their hands full with the Tide in Atlanta the first weekend in December. And you just know that if the committee has any opportunity to put Alabama in the College Football Playoff, they are going to take it.
Continue reading...
Matt Tamanini via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Christopher Creveling-USA TODAY Sports
Your (almost) daily dose of good-natured, Ohio State banter.
Everybody knows that one of the best parts of being a sports fan is debating and dissecting the most (and least) important questions in the sporting world with your friends. So, we’re bringing that to the pages of LGHL with our favorite head-to-head column: You’re Nuts.
In You’re Nuts, two LGHL staff members will take differing sides of one question and argue their opinions passionately. Then, in the end, it’s up to you to determine who’s right and who’s nuts.
Today’s Question: What team outside the initial College Football Playoff top four is most likely to get a berth?
Jami’s Take: Oregon Ducks
With the first round of College Football Playoff rankings released Tuesday, it’s time to ramp up debates around the validity of the Selection Committee’s decision-making.
There’s nothing too surprising about the Top 4 as it stands today, but while I certainly have no complaints about my alma mater Ohio State being ranked No. 1, it’s likely at least some of the top four (currently Ohio State, Georgia, Michigan, and Florida State, in order) will see a shake-up before the season is out.
Certainly, Ohio State and Michigan still have to play each other, so there’s a good chance at least one of those teams won’t make the playoffs (though as we know from last season, it is not impossible).
I do also think this is a season in which it’s anyone’s guess. There are some very, very good football teams, and there are some decent football teams that have had absolutely stellar games. But there’s no one in the field this season that looks professional, the way Georgia, Alabama, or even Ohio State, Clemson, and Michigan have in recent memory. The field feels a little more evenly matched, and that means both intangible things like how the team is gelling, and tangible things like remaining opponents can factor in.
Coming up behind our top four, we’ve got the No. 5 Washington Huskies, led by Heisman hopeful quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and the only unbeaten team outside of the top 4, followed by No. 6 Oregon, No. 7 Texas, and No. 8 Alabama. I can’t emphasize enough how much any of these teams could make it.
Just last week, I was saying Oklahoma had to get through a tough game against Kansas (but a game in which the Sooners were favored) and then it was fairly smooth sailing to the end of the season for them. They lost to Kansas and now they’re sitting at No. 9.
With five undefeated teams so far (two of whom will play each other), the highest number of undefeated teams we could have—if all of them win out—is four. Assuming each unbeaten team got a playoff spot, that would put our top four (in no particular order) as Georgia, Florida State, Washington, and the winner of Ohio State and Michigan.
However, Washington’s schedule for the remainder of the season is absolutely brutal. They face No. 24 USC this weekend on the road, then No. 18 Utah and No. 16 Oregon State on the road before finishing their regular season against Washington State. By the time they get to Washington State, they’ll have had three consecutive games against ranked opponents, something that can physically slow down even the toughest of teams. It’s hard on your bodies to play at that level so many weeks in a row, and that’s assuming you walk away without injury.
Add to that the fact that while Washington has had moments of absolute brilliance this season and the fact that they have a force at quarterback, the team as a whole has looked a bit shaky.
Penix Jr., with the exception of the game against an unranked Arizona State, has played mind-blowing football. Last week against Stanford, he threw for 369 yards and four touchdowns—his FIFTH game this season with four touchdowns.
Still, the team didn’t look like a top-four team against Stanford, and they certainly didn’t look like a top 4 team against ASU. I’m not feeling confident, given their last two weeks, that they’ll win out with three ranked opponents remaining.
Assuming they drop at least one game, at least one team with a loss will make the playoffs.
I don’t think it will be Washington. Instead, I think they will be leapfrogged by a team they handed a loss to earlier this season—No. 6 Oregon.
Oregon, for its part, lost to Washington by only a field goal in a barn burner of a game. While they have games against two of the same ranked opponents as Washington (No. 24 USC and No. 16 Oregon State), both these marquee games are home games for Oregon and they ultimately have a (slightly) easier route to the end of the season as they’ve already played Utah.
Given as much, Oregon has the opportunity to win out at a time when they are playing their best football. Their quarterback Bo Nix, for his part, is absolutely part of the Heisman conversation after an electric performance helped him lead the Ducks to a blowout over Utah this past weekend.
The thing Nix has that Washington doesn’t? The intangibles. Oregon is vibing now—they’re playing their best football at the time it matters most.
If Washington loses its only game toward the end of the season, we also have to consider recency bias (the idea that a loss later in the season hurts more than one earlier on, as you have less time to prove yourself again). Sure, Washington beat Oregon mid-season, but if Oregon wins out and Washington loses a game to any of the three ranked opponents, it will mean Washington also lost a game to a team Oregon beat.
Oregon already curb-stomped Utah. So particularly if Oregon has dominant performances against Oregon State and USC and Washington looks lukewarm AND has a loss, it could be enough for Oregon to leapfrog them despite having lost to them.
I do think ultimately when the end of the season rolls around, that’s what we’re going to see: An Oregon team that dominates the rest of its schedule leapfrogging a Washington team who stockpiled a bunch of tough games for the last month of the season at a time when they already look shaky.
The Ducks might need a little luck on their side, but I do think we’re looking at some Lucky Ducks this year (and Lucky Us because the Duck mascot rules).
Matt’s Take: Alabama Crimson Tide
I think Jami’s selection of Oregon is a really strong one, as — despite their loss to Washington — I think they are the best team in the Pac-12 and would be my pick to win the conference title. However, there is a very large elephant in the room that we just can’t overlook in the College Football Playoff discussion, and that is the Alabama Crimson Tide.
It wasn’t that long ago that Nick Saban’s squad lost to Texas and essentially everyone in the college football world wrote them off, but they are still lurking around the proverbial chicken coop as they prepare to host No. 13 LSU today in a game that could determine the eventual winner of the SEC West. While I know Ole Miss is still in the mix in that division, they haven’t played Alabama yet, which I think will be an L and push them out of the mix, SEC tiebreakers notwithstanding.
Nonetheless, if ‘Bama comes out of the West and faces off against Georgia, I am not putting it past them to win the SEC crown and coast into the playoffs. The Dawgs have looked better in recent weeks against substandard competition, but when playing anyone with a pulse this season have been less than impressive. Today marks the start of three straight games in which UGA will face ranked opponents, which will obviously tell us a lot about who they actually are.
But whether or not they emerge from this November run unscathed or not, I think that whichever East team plays for the title could have their hands full with the Tide in Atlanta the first weekend in December. And you just know that if the committee has any opportunity to put Alabama in the College Football Playoff, they are going to take it.
Continue reading...