Matt Tamanini
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You’re Nuts: Predicting the Big Ten’s order of finish
Matt Tamanini via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Set Number: X163093 TK1
Your (almost) daily dose of good-natured, Ohio State banter.
Everybody knows that one of the best parts of being a sports fan is debating and dissecting the most (and least) important questions in the sporting world with your friends. So, we’re bringing that to the pages of LGHL with our favorite head-to-head column: You’re Nuts.
In You’re Nuts, two LGHL staff members will take differing sides of one question and argue their opinions passionately. Then, in the end, it’s up to you to determine who’s right and who’s nuts.
1. Oregon: 11-1, 8-1 Big Ten
Loss: at Michigan
Head coach Dan Lanning’s recruiting prowess, along with some high-profile transfer portal acquisitions, has set his team up to be a new power team in the Big Ten. Quarterback Dillion Gabriel, who transferred in out of Oklahoma last December, is already generating some Heisman buzz, and he’ll have the arsenal of weapons he needs in running back Jordan James and wide receiver Tez Johnson. On the other side of the ball, the Ducks look to be even better defensively than last year. The Ducks are cruising into this season with momentum in their favor, and while I don’t think they’ll ultimately win the conference championship (in large part because I don’t think they can beat the Buckeyes twice), I do think the fact that they get the Buckeyes at home will tip the momentum in their favor just for the day. Similarly, I think being on the road at Michigan will swing the momentum in the Wolverines’ favor, leaving the Ducks with one loss but the upperhand in a regular season tiebreaker between them and OSU.
2. Ohio State: 11-1, 8-1 Big Ten
Loss: at Oregon
There are two things you should know before you get flustered by this prediction: One, I am a lifelong Cubs fan, and the byproduct of this is that I am always hoping for the best but expecting the worst. This OSU team is returning several key guys and dominated the transfer portal. There’s a lot of debate as to whether they’re underrated as the No. 2 team in the country (they are). They very well could go 12-0, and I would love that, but my inner Cubs fan voice is going, “Mentally prepare for one loss now,” so this prediction is me preparing.
The second thing is that I think the Buckeyes will win the Big Ten Championship game, which will be a rematch against Oregon. The Buckeyes have all the makings of a lightning-in-a-bottle season, and to be honest, with the expansion of the playoff, I’m not all that concerned about one loss so long as they get the job done when it counts—and I believe they will. With Ryan Day relinquishing his play-calling duty to offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, I don’t think Penn State or Michigan will really give them much trouble, and with just one loss to keep them a little humble and motivate them to work harder, I don’t think they’ll lose again. For the regular season, I think Oregon will take it on the tiebreaker technicality, but I do believe this is the year the Buckeyes will get the job done and win that National Championship trophy, so if these predictions were for end-of-season, I’d flip the Buckeyes and the Ducks.
3. Penn State, 11-1, 8-1 Big Ten
Loss: Ohio State
Last season, the Penn State defense looked like the kind that wins championships, but their offense left much to be desired. It is the offense that is the key to them being able to hang with the likes of Ohio State, Oregon and Michigan. With offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki coming to PSU from Kansas this season, the offense, with star Drew Allar at quarterback, should be able to find that through-line that makes the offense elite. Fortunately for them, they also have an easier route to the finish line, with a schedule that theoretically should only involve two major hurdles for them to clear: USC on the road in Los Angeles, and Ohio State at home in Happy Valley. I guess Wisconsin at Camp Randall could count as a third, but Penn State should be firing on all cylinders by the time they get to Madison, so while the Badgers should be better this year than last, by my imagination, it won’t be enough. I don’t think the Nittany Lions will get the job done against the Buckeyes, but I’m looking to them to spoil some fun in southern California, and it should be enough for them to sneak into a playoff spot.
4. Michigan, 10-2, 8-1 Big Ten
Losses: Texas, at Ohio State
This Michigan football team is probably better than Penn State by just a hair, but since they don’t play each other, we won’t find out for sure (at least not in the regular season). But whereas Penn State only has two ranked opponents, Michigan has four—three of whom are in the top five. Coming off its 2023 National Championship win, Michigan has a new head coach (Sherrone Moore, taking over after Jim Harbaugh bolted for the NFL) and has some gaps to fill among its position players, with many of its big names leaving for the NFL as well. The bones Harbaugh left behind are good—really good, even—but the competition is stiff this year. Between OSU, Oregon and Michigan (who all play each other), I think each of those teams on their best day could beat the other two, but realistically, I think each team will win one and lose one. Michigan will take down Oregon, but Ohio State will finally get its win over the Wolverines, and unfortunately (or fortunately, if you ask me as a Buckeye fan), so will No. 4 Texas.
5. USC Trojans, 9-3, 7-2 Big Ten
Losses: at Michigan, Penn State, Notre Dame
Similar to Michigan, USC underwent a lot of change in the offseason, and a lot of it was good, but some of it will leave them with gaps to fill. The shoes of No. 1 NFL Draft pick Caleb Williams will be the biggest ones. Miller Moss is still exceptionally talented, though, and this USC team is a little more well-rounded than they’ve been in past years, so they should be able to handle the physicality of the Big Ten no problem, and I expect them to give the big dogs some trouble regardless of how the final scores shake out.
6. Rutgers, 9-3, 7-2 Big Ten
Losses: at Virginia Tech, at Nebraska, at USC
Things are trending up for the Scarlet Knights on the heels of last year’s 7-6 season, and they’ve made Piscataway as tough a place to play as a lot of the home stadiums of their Big Ten counterparts. That home field advantage is going to give them the edge over Wisconsin this year, especially with a defense that was 16th in the country last year and is full of returning heavy-hitters. Offensively, running back Kyle Monangai returns to do some damage, and the offense rounded itself out a bit with the addition of transfer quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis out of MInnesota, who is certainly reliable and consistent if not prolific, and wide receiver Dymere Miller who was a force at Monmouth. The Scarlet Knights lack a ton of depth, but they have the benefit of a schedule that includes only one ranked opponent — USC, who they’ll face on the road. By managing to avoid the top four teams in the conference, they have the potential to soar to the best record in head coach Greg Schiano’s tenure.
7. Iowa, 9-3, 6-3 Big Ten
Losses: at Ohio State, Washington, Wisconsin
While it remains to be seen how much better the offense will be under new offensive coordinator Tim Lester than the abysmal Brian Ferentz offenses of recent memory, there’s a lot of promise (dare I say hope?) from Hawkeye fans around this Iowa squad. There are some existing questions around the offense: Will the offensive line be solid enough to give the quarterback room to do his thing? Who will be the starting quarterback? It’s presumed it will be Cade McNamara, but Northwestern transfer Brendan Sullivan is battling it out. Who else will the eventual starter be able to throw to, other than Kaleb Brown? Still, the Hawkeyes defense is deep and experienced, and if they can take care of the pass rush and the team can stay healthy, this Iowa squad will be better than their final record will indicate.
8. Wisconsin 7-5, 5-4 Big Ten
Losses: Alabama, at USC, at Rutgers, Penn State, Oregon
I truly trust in Luke Fickell and his vision for this Badgers program, but without star running back Braelon Allen, who headed to the NFL, and with a schedule that includes three games against top 10 teams and two additional tough road games, it will be tough for the Badgers to eke out a winning record in the conference. The days of coasting by on the ease of a Big Ten West schedule are over, and while I’m hoping Fickell is able to pull off a surprise marquee win, and I think he’ll get that when the Badgers host No. 25 Iowa at Camp Randall, but I think the best case scenario is a 6-3 record in the Big Ten with a close win over Rutgers and the most realistic is four conference losses.
9. Washington, 7-5, 4-5 Big Ten
Losses: at Rutgers, Michigan, USC, at Penn State, at Oregon
En route to their 2023 National Championship berth against eventual winners Michigan, the Washington Huskies had a historic undefeated regular season—the first-ever in the Pac-12. But star quarterback and Heisman finalist Michael Penix, Jr. headed to the NFL, head coach Kalen DeBoer headed to Alabama to replace Nick Saban, and most of the starpower either going pro or transferring out, this is not the same Huskies team. They’ve also got an absolutely brutal schedule, in which they play not just five of the Big Ten’s ranked teams, but they do it in a way that requires them to fly back and forth across the country an ungodly number of times (on the road at Rutgers, back west to face Michigan, back east to play Iowa, etc. etc. for seemingly the whole season). I think they’ll eke it out against Iowa as a marquee win, but there is a world in which they realistically lose seven games this season solely because their schedule is horrifyingly difficult physically and logistically and doesn’t leave them time to find their footing in the wake of so much change.
10. Nebraska 7-5, 4-5 Big Ten
Losses: at Ohio State, UCLA, at USC, Wisconsin, at Iowa
It’s another example of the competition just getting better. This Nebraska team could’ve been a contender in the Big Ten West of days gone by, and head coach Matt Rhule is one to watch. He’s a great recruiter (proven by his landing five-star quarterback Dylan Raiola), but Raiola is a freshman, and even with guidance from a great quarterbacks coach in Glenn Thomas, there’s always the chance it will take them a bit to settle in, in a conference that got harder overnight. They could absolutely have a breakout year (a 6-3 or even 7-2 record in the conference is completely feasible), but there are simply a lot of unknowns. They’ll have to protect the ball, and they simply cannot undergo another collapse in the second half of the season like they did last year, losing every single game in November. Unfortunately for them, their five toughest games are the last five of the season. They could pull it off in home games against UCLA or Wisconsin, but they could also see an end to the 2024 season that feels eerily familiar to Cornhusker fans.
11. Maryland, 7-5, 4-5 Big Ten
Losses: USC, at Oregon, Rutgers, Iowa, at Penn State
The biggest question for the Terrapins—who were, in my humble opinion, underrated last season and underestimated heading into this one—is how they’re going to manage at quarterback without Taulia Tagovailoa. They lack a lot of firepower, but head coach Mike Locksley has made this a promising program and they’ll do just fine in the middle as a steady and consistent team among a very competitive Big Ten pack. If they didn’t have to play four ranked teams, I think they’d have a winning conference record.
To be honest, everything from this point down is pretty interchangeable. Just based on the way the scheduling cookie crumbled this year, any of these teams could flip-flop their position with a single win.
12. Northwestern, 6-6, 3-6 Big Ten
Losses: at Washington, at Maryland, Wisconsin, at Iowa, Ohio State, at Michigan
Northwestern was expected to sit at the bottom of the Big Ten last season but managed to pull off seven wins, so it’s not that they’re devoid of talent or the ability to win games under David Braun. It’s again a case of the conference being more competitive post-expansion, and with projected starting quarterback Brendan Sullivan hitting the road for Iowa and the Wildcats’ need to improve their passing game, they’ll do just fine against their non-conference opponents, they should keep it close with Big Ten teams, barring Ohio State, Michigan, and maybe Iowa, but whether they can actually lock in the victories is a different story.
13. UCLA, 5-7, 3-6 Big Ten
Losses: at LSU, Oregon, at Penn State, at Rutgers, Iowa, at Washington, USC
Chip Kelly is off to call plays for the Buckeyes, so the Bruins are going to be in a transition year under first-time head coach DeShaun Foster. Foster brings a lot of promise to the program, and he’s managed to get a lot of buy-in (something invaluable in the long-term), but it’s probably going to take a year or two for the program to settle in under his leadership, especially as he tries to fill the gap left by the defensive departures. Give him a year or two and the energy he’s brought to the program should get the Bruins to a point where they’re competitive again, but there’s just not a lot of continuity, which leaves a lot of learning curves to be exploited by opponents.
14. Indiana, 5-7, 2-7 Big Ten
Losses: at UCLA, Maryland, at Northwestern, Nebraska, Washington, Michigan, at Ohio State
Similar to UCLA, the Indiana program has more promise this year than it’s had in a long time under new head coach Curt Cignetti. He’s got the attitude of a champion, someone who believes in his program and can get the buy-in that fires up the guys. But this season will be an uphill battle, though the schedule isn’t particularly brutal. Though the Hoosiers will have instant losses against Michigan and Ohio State, the rest of their schedule should be close, and most of those teams are going through transitions of their own. The Hoosiers should easily take their non-conference games, but I don’t think they’ll find their stride under Cig until next season.
15. Michigan State, 5-7, 2-7 Big Ten
Losses: at Maryland, Indiana, Ohio State, at Oregon, Iowa, at Michigan, Rutgers
Michigan State made good use of the transfer portal this season and they should be better than both last year’s team and this year’s record reflect—but they’re still in the rebuilding process. While I think head coach Jonathan Smith is the right man to rebuild this program and he’s got talent to work with in quarterback Aidan Chiles and tight end Jack Velling, we’ll probably only get glimmers of their potential this season. They could certainly surprise me and pull it off at Maryland, and Indiana could go either way, but I think this season should be viewed as a stepping stone for a program that is putting the pieces in place to bounce back to its former glory, with the understanding that a bounce-back like that requires fans to play the long game a bit.
16. Minnesota, 4-8, 2-7 Big Ten
Losses: Iowa, at Michigan, USC, at UCLA, at Rutgers, Penn State, at Wisconsin
Minnesota finished 2023 with a 6-7 record, but they couldn’t get anything going by way of the passing game. Perhaps quarterback Max Brosmer, who transferred in from New Hampshire, will have more success, but at the risk of becoming a broken record, the margin of difference between the top teams in the conference and the moderately good ones is just so large that the Golden Gophers have an uphill battle ahead of them.
17. Purdue, 4-8, 2-7 Big Ten
Losses: Notre Dame, Nebraska, at Wisconsin, Northwestern, Oregon, at Ohio State, Penn State, at Michigan State
Their head coach and their quarterback are both returning, which is more than we can say for a lot of the teams this season, but they’re coming off a disappointing 4-8 2023 season, and their schedule doesn’t really lend itself to much better results in 2024. Hudson Card is capable and the offensive line is better, but their play-calling was questionable in 2023 and they have a much larger gap to bridge between them and the rest of the team. All signs point to more disappointment for the Boilermakers in 2024.
18. Illinois, 3-9, 1-8 Big Ten
Losses: Kansas, at Nebraska, at Penn State, Michigan, at Oregon, Michigan State, at Rutgers, Purdue, Minnesota
The Illini went 5-7 in 2023, but between the added competition in the conference and the dropoff they’re going to experience from 20 transfers out and some key guys (namely receiver Isaiah Williams) heading to the NFL, Bret Bielema’s going to have an uphill battle proving that he didn’t peak in 2022. I could see a path to five or six wins, or I could see a path to a season of disappointment, and I just don’t see the Illini having the depth for it to be anything other than the latter.
With the introduction of the erstwhile Pac-12 teams into the conference, there are quite a few new variables to consider when trying to piece together predictions for the Big Ten this season. Here’s what I know for sure: Ohio State is the best team in the league, and as good as I believe Oregon is, they are going to have to prove to me that they can keep up with a Big Ten schedule — and all of the travel required — before I put them at the top of the conference.
Now, in fairness, the medical and training staffs at schools like Oregon will almost certainly be able to minimize the impacts of traveling across the country, but when looking at Oregon’s schedule, they don’t leave the Pacific Timezone until Friday, Oct. 18 when they take on the Purdue Boilermakers. then they are home before heading to Ann Arbor, and then home again before heading to Camp Randall. So, it’s not like the Ducks’ body clocks are going to be a significant factor throughout the season.
However, I am interested in what it will be like for them to host Ohio State on Oct. 12 and then have to fly to West Lafayette to play a Friday night game. Short weeks are tough for a lot of reasons, even when you don’t have to travel over 2,200 miles.
From there, I am looking at the Iowa Hawkeyes, not because I think that they will be especially good this season — although, how could their offense be any worse? — but when you look at their schedule, it’s tough to see anything other than a pair of losses. Yes, the Fighting Kirk Ferentzes play Ohio State, but other than that, every game is remarkably winable. I did pencil in an L to Wisconsin, but that is far from a given, and Nebraska at the end of the season is a lossable game as well.
At 9-3, I’ve got Penn State (defense and running game will be good, but is that enough?), Michigan (just too many losses on the roster, coaching staff, and cheating scheme), and Wisconsin (this would be a big step forward for Luke Fickell) all fighting for a potential fourth Big Ten College Football Playoff berth. I think that any 10-2 team from the league is in the CFP, no questions asked, so, if one of these squads can pull out one more win than I have them down for, then they are in as well.
Down at the other end of the scale, UCLA is going to have a very difficult first season in the Big Ten, and I think that is where they will be more times than not. I know that college sports — especially football are changing — but UCLA’s administration has made it clear over the years that football is not a priority. With the move to player revenue sharing, I don’t see how the Bruins are going to compete when the sport isn’t a priority on campus. So, while the locale is gorgeous, it could be a long, hard road for the Bruins in the B1G.
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Matt Tamanini via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Set Number: X163093 TK1
Your (almost) daily dose of good-natured, Ohio State banter.
Everybody knows that one of the best parts of being a sports fan is debating and dissecting the most (and least) important questions in the sporting world with your friends. So, we’re bringing that to the pages of LGHL with our favorite head-to-head column: You’re Nuts.
In You’re Nuts, two LGHL staff members will take differing sides of one question and argue their opinions passionately. Then, in the end, it’s up to you to determine who’s right and who’s nuts.
Today’s Question: Which Buckeye veteran do you think will surprise people this season?
Jami’s Take:
1. Oregon: 11-1, 8-1 Big Ten
Loss: at Michigan
Head coach Dan Lanning’s recruiting prowess, along with some high-profile transfer portal acquisitions, has set his team up to be a new power team in the Big Ten. Quarterback Dillion Gabriel, who transferred in out of Oklahoma last December, is already generating some Heisman buzz, and he’ll have the arsenal of weapons he needs in running back Jordan James and wide receiver Tez Johnson. On the other side of the ball, the Ducks look to be even better defensively than last year. The Ducks are cruising into this season with momentum in their favor, and while I don’t think they’ll ultimately win the conference championship (in large part because I don’t think they can beat the Buckeyes twice), I do think the fact that they get the Buckeyes at home will tip the momentum in their favor just for the day. Similarly, I think being on the road at Michigan will swing the momentum in the Wolverines’ favor, leaving the Ducks with one loss but the upperhand in a regular season tiebreaker between them and OSU.
2. Ohio State: 11-1, 8-1 Big Ten
Loss: at Oregon
There are two things you should know before you get flustered by this prediction: One, I am a lifelong Cubs fan, and the byproduct of this is that I am always hoping for the best but expecting the worst. This OSU team is returning several key guys and dominated the transfer portal. There’s a lot of debate as to whether they’re underrated as the No. 2 team in the country (they are). They very well could go 12-0, and I would love that, but my inner Cubs fan voice is going, “Mentally prepare for one loss now,” so this prediction is me preparing.
The second thing is that I think the Buckeyes will win the Big Ten Championship game, which will be a rematch against Oregon. The Buckeyes have all the makings of a lightning-in-a-bottle season, and to be honest, with the expansion of the playoff, I’m not all that concerned about one loss so long as they get the job done when it counts—and I believe they will. With Ryan Day relinquishing his play-calling duty to offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, I don’t think Penn State or Michigan will really give them much trouble, and with just one loss to keep them a little humble and motivate them to work harder, I don’t think they’ll lose again. For the regular season, I think Oregon will take it on the tiebreaker technicality, but I do believe this is the year the Buckeyes will get the job done and win that National Championship trophy, so if these predictions were for end-of-season, I’d flip the Buckeyes and the Ducks.
3. Penn State, 11-1, 8-1 Big Ten
Loss: Ohio State
Last season, the Penn State defense looked like the kind that wins championships, but their offense left much to be desired. It is the offense that is the key to them being able to hang with the likes of Ohio State, Oregon and Michigan. With offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki coming to PSU from Kansas this season, the offense, with star Drew Allar at quarterback, should be able to find that through-line that makes the offense elite. Fortunately for them, they also have an easier route to the finish line, with a schedule that theoretically should only involve two major hurdles for them to clear: USC on the road in Los Angeles, and Ohio State at home in Happy Valley. I guess Wisconsin at Camp Randall could count as a third, but Penn State should be firing on all cylinders by the time they get to Madison, so while the Badgers should be better this year than last, by my imagination, it won’t be enough. I don’t think the Nittany Lions will get the job done against the Buckeyes, but I’m looking to them to spoil some fun in southern California, and it should be enough for them to sneak into a playoff spot.
4. Michigan, 10-2, 8-1 Big Ten
Losses: Texas, at Ohio State
This Michigan football team is probably better than Penn State by just a hair, but since they don’t play each other, we won’t find out for sure (at least not in the regular season). But whereas Penn State only has two ranked opponents, Michigan has four—three of whom are in the top five. Coming off its 2023 National Championship win, Michigan has a new head coach (Sherrone Moore, taking over after Jim Harbaugh bolted for the NFL) and has some gaps to fill among its position players, with many of its big names leaving for the NFL as well. The bones Harbaugh left behind are good—really good, even—but the competition is stiff this year. Between OSU, Oregon and Michigan (who all play each other), I think each of those teams on their best day could beat the other two, but realistically, I think each team will win one and lose one. Michigan will take down Oregon, but Ohio State will finally get its win over the Wolverines, and unfortunately (or fortunately, if you ask me as a Buckeye fan), so will No. 4 Texas.
5. USC Trojans, 9-3, 7-2 Big Ten
Losses: at Michigan, Penn State, Notre Dame
Similar to Michigan, USC underwent a lot of change in the offseason, and a lot of it was good, but some of it will leave them with gaps to fill. The shoes of No. 1 NFL Draft pick Caleb Williams will be the biggest ones. Miller Moss is still exceptionally talented, though, and this USC team is a little more well-rounded than they’ve been in past years, so they should be able to handle the physicality of the Big Ten no problem, and I expect them to give the big dogs some trouble regardless of how the final scores shake out.
6. Rutgers, 9-3, 7-2 Big Ten
Losses: at Virginia Tech, at Nebraska, at USC
Things are trending up for the Scarlet Knights on the heels of last year’s 7-6 season, and they’ve made Piscataway as tough a place to play as a lot of the home stadiums of their Big Ten counterparts. That home field advantage is going to give them the edge over Wisconsin this year, especially with a defense that was 16th in the country last year and is full of returning heavy-hitters. Offensively, running back Kyle Monangai returns to do some damage, and the offense rounded itself out a bit with the addition of transfer quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis out of MInnesota, who is certainly reliable and consistent if not prolific, and wide receiver Dymere Miller who was a force at Monmouth. The Scarlet Knights lack a ton of depth, but they have the benefit of a schedule that includes only one ranked opponent — USC, who they’ll face on the road. By managing to avoid the top four teams in the conference, they have the potential to soar to the best record in head coach Greg Schiano’s tenure.
7. Iowa, 9-3, 6-3 Big Ten
Losses: at Ohio State, Washington, Wisconsin
While it remains to be seen how much better the offense will be under new offensive coordinator Tim Lester than the abysmal Brian Ferentz offenses of recent memory, there’s a lot of promise (dare I say hope?) from Hawkeye fans around this Iowa squad. There are some existing questions around the offense: Will the offensive line be solid enough to give the quarterback room to do his thing? Who will be the starting quarterback? It’s presumed it will be Cade McNamara, but Northwestern transfer Brendan Sullivan is battling it out. Who else will the eventual starter be able to throw to, other than Kaleb Brown? Still, the Hawkeyes defense is deep and experienced, and if they can take care of the pass rush and the team can stay healthy, this Iowa squad will be better than their final record will indicate.
8. Wisconsin 7-5, 5-4 Big Ten
Losses: Alabama, at USC, at Rutgers, Penn State, Oregon
I truly trust in Luke Fickell and his vision for this Badgers program, but without star running back Braelon Allen, who headed to the NFL, and with a schedule that includes three games against top 10 teams and two additional tough road games, it will be tough for the Badgers to eke out a winning record in the conference. The days of coasting by on the ease of a Big Ten West schedule are over, and while I’m hoping Fickell is able to pull off a surprise marquee win, and I think he’ll get that when the Badgers host No. 25 Iowa at Camp Randall, but I think the best case scenario is a 6-3 record in the Big Ten with a close win over Rutgers and the most realistic is four conference losses.
9. Washington, 7-5, 4-5 Big Ten
Losses: at Rutgers, Michigan, USC, at Penn State, at Oregon
En route to their 2023 National Championship berth against eventual winners Michigan, the Washington Huskies had a historic undefeated regular season—the first-ever in the Pac-12. But star quarterback and Heisman finalist Michael Penix, Jr. headed to the NFL, head coach Kalen DeBoer headed to Alabama to replace Nick Saban, and most of the starpower either going pro or transferring out, this is not the same Huskies team. They’ve also got an absolutely brutal schedule, in which they play not just five of the Big Ten’s ranked teams, but they do it in a way that requires them to fly back and forth across the country an ungodly number of times (on the road at Rutgers, back west to face Michigan, back east to play Iowa, etc. etc. for seemingly the whole season). I think they’ll eke it out against Iowa as a marquee win, but there is a world in which they realistically lose seven games this season solely because their schedule is horrifyingly difficult physically and logistically and doesn’t leave them time to find their footing in the wake of so much change.
10. Nebraska 7-5, 4-5 Big Ten
Losses: at Ohio State, UCLA, at USC, Wisconsin, at Iowa
It’s another example of the competition just getting better. This Nebraska team could’ve been a contender in the Big Ten West of days gone by, and head coach Matt Rhule is one to watch. He’s a great recruiter (proven by his landing five-star quarterback Dylan Raiola), but Raiola is a freshman, and even with guidance from a great quarterbacks coach in Glenn Thomas, there’s always the chance it will take them a bit to settle in, in a conference that got harder overnight. They could absolutely have a breakout year (a 6-3 or even 7-2 record in the conference is completely feasible), but there are simply a lot of unknowns. They’ll have to protect the ball, and they simply cannot undergo another collapse in the second half of the season like they did last year, losing every single game in November. Unfortunately for them, their five toughest games are the last five of the season. They could pull it off in home games against UCLA or Wisconsin, but they could also see an end to the 2024 season that feels eerily familiar to Cornhusker fans.
11. Maryland, 7-5, 4-5 Big Ten
Losses: USC, at Oregon, Rutgers, Iowa, at Penn State
The biggest question for the Terrapins—who were, in my humble opinion, underrated last season and underestimated heading into this one—is how they’re going to manage at quarterback without Taulia Tagovailoa. They lack a lot of firepower, but head coach Mike Locksley has made this a promising program and they’ll do just fine in the middle as a steady and consistent team among a very competitive Big Ten pack. If they didn’t have to play four ranked teams, I think they’d have a winning conference record.
To be honest, everything from this point down is pretty interchangeable. Just based on the way the scheduling cookie crumbled this year, any of these teams could flip-flop their position with a single win.
12. Northwestern, 6-6, 3-6 Big Ten
Losses: at Washington, at Maryland, Wisconsin, at Iowa, Ohio State, at Michigan
Northwestern was expected to sit at the bottom of the Big Ten last season but managed to pull off seven wins, so it’s not that they’re devoid of talent or the ability to win games under David Braun. It’s again a case of the conference being more competitive post-expansion, and with projected starting quarterback Brendan Sullivan hitting the road for Iowa and the Wildcats’ need to improve their passing game, they’ll do just fine against their non-conference opponents, they should keep it close with Big Ten teams, barring Ohio State, Michigan, and maybe Iowa, but whether they can actually lock in the victories is a different story.
13. UCLA, 5-7, 3-6 Big Ten
Losses: at LSU, Oregon, at Penn State, at Rutgers, Iowa, at Washington, USC
Chip Kelly is off to call plays for the Buckeyes, so the Bruins are going to be in a transition year under first-time head coach DeShaun Foster. Foster brings a lot of promise to the program, and he’s managed to get a lot of buy-in (something invaluable in the long-term), but it’s probably going to take a year or two for the program to settle in under his leadership, especially as he tries to fill the gap left by the defensive departures. Give him a year or two and the energy he’s brought to the program should get the Bruins to a point where they’re competitive again, but there’s just not a lot of continuity, which leaves a lot of learning curves to be exploited by opponents.
14. Indiana, 5-7, 2-7 Big Ten
Losses: at UCLA, Maryland, at Northwestern, Nebraska, Washington, Michigan, at Ohio State
Similar to UCLA, the Indiana program has more promise this year than it’s had in a long time under new head coach Curt Cignetti. He’s got the attitude of a champion, someone who believes in his program and can get the buy-in that fires up the guys. But this season will be an uphill battle, though the schedule isn’t particularly brutal. Though the Hoosiers will have instant losses against Michigan and Ohio State, the rest of their schedule should be close, and most of those teams are going through transitions of their own. The Hoosiers should easily take their non-conference games, but I don’t think they’ll find their stride under Cig until next season.
15. Michigan State, 5-7, 2-7 Big Ten
Losses: at Maryland, Indiana, Ohio State, at Oregon, Iowa, at Michigan, Rutgers
Michigan State made good use of the transfer portal this season and they should be better than both last year’s team and this year’s record reflect—but they’re still in the rebuilding process. While I think head coach Jonathan Smith is the right man to rebuild this program and he’s got talent to work with in quarterback Aidan Chiles and tight end Jack Velling, we’ll probably only get glimmers of their potential this season. They could certainly surprise me and pull it off at Maryland, and Indiana could go either way, but I think this season should be viewed as a stepping stone for a program that is putting the pieces in place to bounce back to its former glory, with the understanding that a bounce-back like that requires fans to play the long game a bit.
16. Minnesota, 4-8, 2-7 Big Ten
Losses: Iowa, at Michigan, USC, at UCLA, at Rutgers, Penn State, at Wisconsin
Minnesota finished 2023 with a 6-7 record, but they couldn’t get anything going by way of the passing game. Perhaps quarterback Max Brosmer, who transferred in from New Hampshire, will have more success, but at the risk of becoming a broken record, the margin of difference between the top teams in the conference and the moderately good ones is just so large that the Golden Gophers have an uphill battle ahead of them.
17. Purdue, 4-8, 2-7 Big Ten
Losses: Notre Dame, Nebraska, at Wisconsin, Northwestern, Oregon, at Ohio State, Penn State, at Michigan State
Their head coach and their quarterback are both returning, which is more than we can say for a lot of the teams this season, but they’re coming off a disappointing 4-8 2023 season, and their schedule doesn’t really lend itself to much better results in 2024. Hudson Card is capable and the offensive line is better, but their play-calling was questionable in 2023 and they have a much larger gap to bridge between them and the rest of the team. All signs point to more disappointment for the Boilermakers in 2024.
18. Illinois, 3-9, 1-8 Big Ten
Losses: Kansas, at Nebraska, at Penn State, Michigan, at Oregon, Michigan State, at Rutgers, Purdue, Minnesota
The Illini went 5-7 in 2023, but between the added competition in the conference and the dropoff they’re going to experience from 20 transfers out and some key guys (namely receiver Isaiah Williams) heading to the NFL, Bret Bielema’s going to have an uphill battle proving that he didn’t peak in 2022. I could see a path to five or six wins, or I could see a path to a season of disappointment, and I just don’t see the Illini having the depth for it to be anything other than the latter.
Matt’s Take:
With the introduction of the erstwhile Pac-12 teams into the conference, there are quite a few new variables to consider when trying to piece together predictions for the Big Ten this season. Here’s what I know for sure: Ohio State is the best team in the league, and as good as I believe Oregon is, they are going to have to prove to me that they can keep up with a Big Ten schedule — and all of the travel required — before I put them at the top of the conference.
Now, in fairness, the medical and training staffs at schools like Oregon will almost certainly be able to minimize the impacts of traveling across the country, but when looking at Oregon’s schedule, they don’t leave the Pacific Timezone until Friday, Oct. 18 when they take on the Purdue Boilermakers. then they are home before heading to Ann Arbor, and then home again before heading to Camp Randall. So, it’s not like the Ducks’ body clocks are going to be a significant factor throughout the season.
However, I am interested in what it will be like for them to host Ohio State on Oct. 12 and then have to fly to West Lafayette to play a Friday night game. Short weeks are tough for a lot of reasons, even when you don’t have to travel over 2,200 miles.
From there, I am looking at the Iowa Hawkeyes, not because I think that they will be especially good this season — although, how could their offense be any worse? — but when you look at their schedule, it’s tough to see anything other than a pair of losses. Yes, the Fighting Kirk Ferentzes play Ohio State, but other than that, every game is remarkably winable. I did pencil in an L to Wisconsin, but that is far from a given, and Nebraska at the end of the season is a lossable game as well.
At 9-3, I’ve got Penn State (defense and running game will be good, but is that enough?), Michigan (just too many losses on the roster, coaching staff, and cheating scheme), and Wisconsin (this would be a big step forward for Luke Fickell) all fighting for a potential fourth Big Ten College Football Playoff berth. I think that any 10-2 team from the league is in the CFP, no questions asked, so, if one of these squads can pull out one more win than I have them down for, then they are in as well.
Down at the other end of the scale, UCLA is going to have a very difficult first season in the Big Ten, and I think that is where they will be more times than not. I know that college sports — especially football are changing — but UCLA’s administration has made it clear over the years that football is not a priority. With the move to player revenue sharing, I don’t see how the Bruins are going to compete when the sport isn’t a priority on campus. So, while the locale is gorgeous, it could be a long, hard road for the Bruins in the B1G.
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