Matt Tamanini
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You’re Nuts: Is playing a mid-December night game going to impact Ohio State’s playoff game?
Matt Tamanini via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images
Your (almost) daily dose of good-natured, Ohio State banter.
Everybody knows that one of the best parts of being a sports fan is debating and dissecting the most (and least) important questions in the sporting world with your friends. So, we’re bringing that to the pages of LGHL with our favorite head-to-head column: You’re Nuts.
In You’re Nuts, two LGHL staff members will take differing sides of one question and argue their opinions passionately. Then, in the end, it’s up to you to determine who’s right and who’s nuts.
I’m going to be honest: When Ohio State takes the field against Tennessee on December 21, I don’t think the weather is going to be as big a factor as people are making it seem. I won’t go so far as to call it a non-factor, but it’s highly unlikely cold weather alone is going to be the thing that costs the Volunteers the game.
The early forecasts are projecting temperatures between 23 and 33 degrees, with a real-feel of 17 degrees. That is cold-cold. Cold enough that it’s not fun to play in no matter which jersey you’re wearing.
Some folks are arguing that the Buckeyes are used to it, while Tennessee is not. But Tennessee has a much more seasonal climate than some of the other SEC schools, despite being in the South. Other than today and tomorrow, Knoxville’s temperatures are in the same ballpark as those in Columbus. In fact, as I sit down to write this, I’m in the middle of texting my little brother—a Tennessee graduate—who was pleased to inform me it snowed in Knoxville today and the Volunteers practiced in it.
Now, it’s not going to hit 17 degrees in Knoxville between now and game day, and in the years they make a Bowl Game, the Vols are typically traveling somewhere warm for postseason football. But cold weather isn’t a foreign concept to the Vols.
Except Nico Iamaleava, the Volunteers’ quarterback from Southern California. I’m writing this from Southern California, where I’m bundled up on my couch with a space heater running, and it’s not even close to being below freezing. Iamaleava is certainly not accustomed to playing in that kind of cold—but, I would argue, neither is anyone. It might affect Iamaleava’s play a bit, but who’s to say it won’t also affect the Buckeyes?
Do we ever really get used to that kind of cold? I spent 20 years of my life in Chicago and I’ve lived in places with cold winters for 90 percent of my time on this planet: No amount of living in it makes it feel less cold. How much of an advantage does it really give the Buckeyes, then?
According to NFL data, not much. We have to take NFL data with a grain of salt because NFL teams play more games in cold weather, and most college students haven’t played in that kind of cold yet, but according to Sports-Reference, since 2010, the climate has not drastically impacted the outcome of games.
Individual teams had some variance, but it could be due to a wide range of factors (for example, the New England Patriots—a cold-weather team—had the highest success rate in cold-weather games. However, they also had a stacked roster and played in three Super Bowls in that time, so is it the weather or something else?)
The real trends that emerge from the data show that there are fewer passing yards across the board in cold games—which frankly, might actually work against the Buckeyes (see also: the complete collapse of our rushing game against the Wolverines).
If wind or snow were to factor in, in addition to the cold, that might be a different story. Wind can actively impact kickoffs, punts, field goals, and passing, while snow makes it slippery. Those have much greater implications for the game than temperature alone, and the Buckeyes are categorically more prepared for those types of weather events than the Volunteers.
In the case of either wind or snow, I’d expect some detrimental impact on Tennessee’s performance. But right now, we’re expecting no precipitation and only a mild breeze.
Victory, then, is likely to be less about the weather itself and more about how successfully the coaches can help their players execute and stay focused in temps that would drive most humans to sit by a fire and drink cocoa.
It’s not that the cold won’t affect the game at all, but if the current forecast stands, I don’t think the cold will impact Tennessee more than it does Ohio State. Rather, I think we’ll see two very evenly matched teams adjust their game plans a bit to attempt to account for frigid temperatures, and the team that adjusts more successfully will walk away with a narrow win in a nail-biter.
Let’s call a spade a spade, the Buckeye offense stunk the last time it played a game in particularly cold weather. Against Michigan, the temperatures were in the mid to upper-20s and there were winds from 15 to 25 miles per hour throughout the afternoon.
Now, whether that was the cause for the disjointed, poorly called offense, I don’t know. It could also potentially be the fact that OSU’s quarterback took an ungodly shot to his head in the second quarter, or that the Buckeyes’ head coach can’t seem to get out of his own way in big games. Who’s to say?
But whatever the reason is, it is clear that the Tennessee Volunteers are far more suited to move the ball on offense in poor weather than the Buckeyes are. Just over 50% of the Vols' total yards of offense this season came on the ground, while OSU saw only 40% of its yards come via the running game.
Josh Huepel’s squad ranked second among Power 4 schools with 232 rushing yards per game while Ohio State was 59th nationally at 169.17 ypg. Of course, all stats can be deceiving, especially when trying to compare cross-conference resumes against very different schedules. The Buckeyes also hurt their raw numbers by running far fewer plays than in recent years. Ryan Day’s team ranked 116th nationally in terms of how many seconds it took them to run a play on offense at 28.3. Tennessee snapped the ball every 24 seconds. Now, you might not think that’s a big deal, but that was good enough for them to rank 21st in FBS.
The point is that the Vols run the ball a lot. And while they are fairly balanced, if the weather becomes inclement, they have a much better chance of overcoming it by doing what they do best.
If the winds are swirling inside Ohio Stadium on Saturday, Dec. 21, there is substantial doubt in my mind about whether or not Day and Chip Kelly will trust Will Howard to put the ball in the air. Personally, I think that the Kansas State transfer has been excellent this year, but he has admittedly struggled to connect on deep passes, suggesting either a lack of elite arm strength or fundamentals, both of which are required against gusting winds.
Personally, I think that Howard has the capabilities to throw the ball anywhere on the field regardless of any non-catastrophic conditions, but I’m not sure that the OSU offensive brain trust will be able to emerge from their turtle shell long enough to realize it.
Continue reading...
Matt Tamanini via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images
Your (almost) daily dose of good-natured, Ohio State banter.
Everybody knows that one of the best parts of being a sports fan is debating and dissecting the most (and least) important questions in the sporting world with your friends. So, we’re bringing that to the pages of LGHL with our favorite head-to-head column: You’re Nuts.
In You’re Nuts, two LGHL staff members will take differing sides of one question and argue their opinions passionately. Then, in the end, it’s up to you to determine who’s right and who’s nuts.
Today’s Question: Is playing Tennessee at night in mid-December at Ohio Stadium going to impact the outcome of the College Football Playoff game?
Jami’s Take: Not unless it snows
I’m going to be honest: When Ohio State takes the field against Tennessee on December 21, I don’t think the weather is going to be as big a factor as people are making it seem. I won’t go so far as to call it a non-factor, but it’s highly unlikely cold weather alone is going to be the thing that costs the Volunteers the game.
The early forecasts are projecting temperatures between 23 and 33 degrees, with a real-feel of 17 degrees. That is cold-cold. Cold enough that it’s not fun to play in no matter which jersey you’re wearing.
Some folks are arguing that the Buckeyes are used to it, while Tennessee is not. But Tennessee has a much more seasonal climate than some of the other SEC schools, despite being in the South. Other than today and tomorrow, Knoxville’s temperatures are in the same ballpark as those in Columbus. In fact, as I sit down to write this, I’m in the middle of texting my little brother—a Tennessee graduate—who was pleased to inform me it snowed in Knoxville today and the Volunteers practiced in it.
Now, it’s not going to hit 17 degrees in Knoxville between now and game day, and in the years they make a Bowl Game, the Vols are typically traveling somewhere warm for postseason football. But cold weather isn’t a foreign concept to the Vols.
Except Nico Iamaleava, the Volunteers’ quarterback from Southern California. I’m writing this from Southern California, where I’m bundled up on my couch with a space heater running, and it’s not even close to being below freezing. Iamaleava is certainly not accustomed to playing in that kind of cold—but, I would argue, neither is anyone. It might affect Iamaleava’s play a bit, but who’s to say it won’t also affect the Buckeyes?
Do we ever really get used to that kind of cold? I spent 20 years of my life in Chicago and I’ve lived in places with cold winters for 90 percent of my time on this planet: No amount of living in it makes it feel less cold. How much of an advantage does it really give the Buckeyes, then?
According to NFL data, not much. We have to take NFL data with a grain of salt because NFL teams play more games in cold weather, and most college students haven’t played in that kind of cold yet, but according to Sports-Reference, since 2010, the climate has not drastically impacted the outcome of games.
Individual teams had some variance, but it could be due to a wide range of factors (for example, the New England Patriots—a cold-weather team—had the highest success rate in cold-weather games. However, they also had a stacked roster and played in three Super Bowls in that time, so is it the weather or something else?)
The real trends that emerge from the data show that there are fewer passing yards across the board in cold games—which frankly, might actually work against the Buckeyes (see also: the complete collapse of our rushing game against the Wolverines).
If wind or snow were to factor in, in addition to the cold, that might be a different story. Wind can actively impact kickoffs, punts, field goals, and passing, while snow makes it slippery. Those have much greater implications for the game than temperature alone, and the Buckeyes are categorically more prepared for those types of weather events than the Volunteers.
In the case of either wind or snow, I’d expect some detrimental impact on Tennessee’s performance. But right now, we’re expecting no precipitation and only a mild breeze.
Victory, then, is likely to be less about the weather itself and more about how successfully the coaches can help their players execute and stay focused in temps that would drive most humans to sit by a fire and drink cocoa.
It’s not that the cold won’t affect the game at all, but if the current forecast stands, I don’t think the cold will impact Tennessee more than it does Ohio State. Rather, I think we’ll see two very evenly matched teams adjust their game plans a bit to attempt to account for frigid temperatures, and the team that adjusts more successfully will walk away with a narrow win in a nail-biter.
Matt’s Take: Yes, particularly if it is windy
Let’s call a spade a spade, the Buckeye offense stunk the last time it played a game in particularly cold weather. Against Michigan, the temperatures were in the mid to upper-20s and there were winds from 15 to 25 miles per hour throughout the afternoon.
Now, whether that was the cause for the disjointed, poorly called offense, I don’t know. It could also potentially be the fact that OSU’s quarterback took an ungodly shot to his head in the second quarter, or that the Buckeyes’ head coach can’t seem to get out of his own way in big games. Who’s to say?
But whatever the reason is, it is clear that the Tennessee Volunteers are far more suited to move the ball on offense in poor weather than the Buckeyes are. Just over 50% of the Vols' total yards of offense this season came on the ground, while OSU saw only 40% of its yards come via the running game.
Josh Huepel’s squad ranked second among Power 4 schools with 232 rushing yards per game while Ohio State was 59th nationally at 169.17 ypg. Of course, all stats can be deceiving, especially when trying to compare cross-conference resumes against very different schedules. The Buckeyes also hurt their raw numbers by running far fewer plays than in recent years. Ryan Day’s team ranked 116th nationally in terms of how many seconds it took them to run a play on offense at 28.3. Tennessee snapped the ball every 24 seconds. Now, you might not think that’s a big deal, but that was good enough for them to rank 21st in FBS.
The point is that the Vols run the ball a lot. And while they are fairly balanced, if the weather becomes inclement, they have a much better chance of overcoming it by doing what they do best.
If the winds are swirling inside Ohio Stadium on Saturday, Dec. 21, there is substantial doubt in my mind about whether or not Day and Chip Kelly will trust Will Howard to put the ball in the air. Personally, I think that the Kansas State transfer has been excellent this year, but he has admittedly struggled to connect on deep passes, suggesting either a lack of elite arm strength or fundamentals, both of which are required against gusting winds.
Personally, I think that Howard has the capabilities to throw the ball anywhere on the field regardless of any non-catastrophic conditions, but I’m not sure that the OSU offensive brain trust will be able to emerge from their turtle shell long enough to realize it.
Let us know who you are agreeing with:
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