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WR Production year-to-year

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DaddyBigBucks

DaddyBigBucks

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Bookie
This is the last in a series of analyses requested by 3yards'.

Assumptions and Constraints
  • I used the same data collection technique as for the others (QB and RB threads), so the same limitations apply.
  • I only calculated the improvement averages for; receptions per game (RPG), yards per reception (YPR), yards per game YPG and touchdowns (TD)
Results

The results for wide outs were more surprising than either of the others, to me anyway.

The following table shows the average year-year improvement for all wide-receivers that were ranked in the top-100 in categories published by the NCAA. Only those who were ranked in at least 2 of the past 7 seasons were included.

AVERAGEs________RPG______YPR______YPG______TD__
OVERALL__________0.483_____-0.603______4.679_____-0.749
Seniors___________0.392_____-0.541______2.990_____-0.699
Juniors___________0.565_____-0.824______5.694_____-0.493
Sophomores_______0.763_____-0.234_____12.537_____-1.900

​
Things I found surprising:
  • Yards per Reception WENT DOWN for every year of eligibility, on average
  • Touchdowns WENT DOWN for every year of eligibility, on average
  • Receptions and Yards per Game both went up for every year of eligibility, but the average improvement went down every year
  • As with Running Backs, the most improvement was early in the career
What I found most interesting is the dramatic increase in YPG for the Sophomores and their dramatic decrease in Touchdowns. As with the RBs, I think this is due to the double-edged sword of cutting a high-profile as a freshman. Your coach feeds you the ball more, hence the higher YPG; and defenses pay more attention to you (lower YPR), and start double-teaming you in the end-zone (fewer TDs).
 
Wow, that's hard to believe. I certainly didn't see that one coming. TD's down every year? YPR down every year? That's just bizarre! I'm glad you're doing the anaylsis DBB. I don't imagine too many people would expect the results you're proving here. In fact, if someone simply told me this was the case, I'd have thought them crazy. It certainly challenges some of my long held assumptions that position players generally make steady and linear gains (from year to year) in their production.
 
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If I correctly understand the way the data was gathered, it would exclude somebody like Terry Glenn, who only had one good year.

But even so, the numbers are very surprising.
 
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BB73 said:
If I correctly understand the way the data was gathered, it would exclude somebody like Terry Glenn, who only had one good year.

But even so, the numbers are very surprising.
Click to expand...

That's exactly right.

EDIT:


In order to include everyone who was ranked, if only for one season; I went back and did an average for all seniors, all juniors, all sophomores and all freshmen. These results are raw numbers, not improvement over a previous season.
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 232pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=310 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 41pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2011" width=55><COL style="WIDTH: 26pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1280" width=35><COL style="WIDTH: 29pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1426" width=39><COL style="WIDTH: 42pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2048" width=56><COL style="WIDTH: 52pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2523" width=69><COL style="WIDTH: 42pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2048" width=56><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 41pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=55 height=17></TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 26pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=35></TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 29pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=39>TD</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 42pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=56>RPG</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 52pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=69>YPR</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 42pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=56>YPG</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>sr avgs</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num="6.4258675078864353">6.426</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num="5.1384779608754343">5.138</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num="14.273205461350685">14.273</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num="71.851284292293784">71.851</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>jr avgs</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num="6.1050583657587545">6.105</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num="4.9523730700773472">4.952</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num="14.634919391348369">14.635</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num="71.263981889273666">71.264</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>so avgs</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>6.100</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num="4.6981560502989064">4.698</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num="14.909943551991221">14.910</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num="68.663312322598017">68.663</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>fr avgs</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num="7.1388888888888893">7.139</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num="4.7316724941724928">4.732</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num="14.951520954347838">14.952</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num="67.934411884411901">67.934</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>overall</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num="6.2420842702173367">6.242</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num="5.0218713353816238">5.022</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num="14.593200532012307">14.593</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num="71.697577849486009">71.698</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


​
The FRESHMEN had the highest Yards Per Reception and the most TouchDowns! Bear in mind that for a freshman to get enough PT to be ranked, he has to be a very special athlete.

(Data on touchdowns only goes back to 2000. All other data goes back to 1999)
 
Last edited:
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This actually makes some sense. As a Freshman phenom gets older, he starts to face more double coverages and "lock down" corners. hence making receptions, tds, and yards tougher to come by. Hence why you see more catches, but fewer YPR, with most of the dip in TDs happening between frosh and soph years, with them slowly rebounding.
 
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