Why The Browns Should Draft Carson Wentz #2 Overall

It is often said that quarterback is the most important position in football, and possibly all of team sports. If that is the case, then there should be a correlation between good quarterback play and winning, and bad quarterback play and losing. In the table below I show each NFL team's passing stats since the Cleveland Browns re-entered the league in 1999:

NFL Team	Complete	Attempts	Comp Pct	Yards Passing	---TDs---	---INTs--	Passing Eff	W/L Record	-Win Pct-
New England Patriots	6,047	9,643	.627	67,147	495	205	91.61	181 - 91 - 0	.665
Indianapolis Colts	6,255	9,873	.634	70,295	509	253	91.05	181 - 91 - 0	.665
Green Bay Packers	6,040	9,624	.628	67,681	515	253	90.57	169 - 102 - 1	.623
Pittsburgh Steelers	5,324	8,635	.617	60,436	394	255	89.87	168 - 103 - 1	.619
New Orleans Saints	6,431	10,163	.633	71,531	502	287	88.84	142 - 130 - 0	.522
San Diego Chargers	5,680	9,121	.623	62,867	426	267	86.07	139 - 133 - 0	.511
Denver Broncos	5,696	9,285	.613	64,183	438	262	85.97	161 - 111 - 0	.592
Dallas Cowboys	5,467	8,893	.615	60,583	415	295	83.43	136 - 136 - 0	.500
Seattle Seahawks	5,212	8,614	.605	56,777	386	246	83.01	151 - 121 - 0	.555
Philadelphia Eagles	5,650	9,535	.593	62,647	418	254	82.35	157 - 114 - 1	.579
Minnesota Vikings	5,388	8,712	.618	58,079	380	285	82.31	136 - 135 - 1	.502
Houston Texans	4,511	7,296	.618	48,291	280	212	81.87	97 - 127 - 0	.433
Kansas City Chiefs	5,277	8,745	.603	57,642	349	238	81.80	129 - 143 - 0	.474
NFL Average minus Browns	5,465	9,058	.603	59,098	380	269	81.17	N/A	N/A
Atlanta Falcons	5,379	8,966	.600	58,117	366	261	80.56	134 - 137 - 1	.494
Saint Louis Rams	5,838	9,501	.614	62,498	377	309	80.37	120 - 151 - 1	.443
New York Giants	5,593	9,461	.591	62,429	397	288	80.14	142 - 130 - 0	.522
Washington Redskins	5,393	9,000	.599	58,065	349	254	80.07	117 - 155 - 0	.430
San Francisco 49ers	5,048	8,492	.594	53,249	342	232	79.79	127 - 144 - 1	.469
Tennessee Titans	5,195	8,724	.595	56,808	344	257	79.71	137 - 135 - 0	.504
Cincinnati Bengals	5,507	9,137	.603	57,505	379	288	79.22	128 - 142 - 2	.474
Jacksonville Jaguars	5,225	8,842	.591	54,820	330	238	78.39	117 - 155 - 0	.430
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5,359	8,969	.598	55,708	343	267	78.10	123 - 149 - 0	.452
Carolina Panthers	4,995	8,564	.583	55,069	355	276	77.87	136 - 135 - 1	.502
Buffalo Bills	5,144	8,620	.597	53,429	329	273	77.17	116 - 156 - 0	.426
Oakland Raiders	5,293	9,098	.582	56,985	341	272	76.70	104 - 168 - 0	.382
Baltimore Ravens	5,289	8,996	.588	54,529	331	266	76.28	157 - 115 - 0	.577
New York Jets	5,052	8,535	.592	53,097	325	292	75.77	135 - 137 - 0	.496
Miami Dolphins	5,320	9,002	.591	55,283	319	284	75.59	130 - 142 - 0	.478
Detroit Lions	5,868	10,046	.584	61,740	371	326	75.16	95 - 177 - 0	.349
Arizona Cardinals	5,672	9,705	.584	60,856	345	335	74.38	120 - 152 - 0	.411
Chicago Bears	5,259	9,010	.584	53,690	345	308	74.07	135 - 137 - 0	.496
Cleveland Browns	5,075	8,832	.575	51,863	299	309	71.14	87 - 185 - 0	.320

Clearly, there is a strong correlation between teams with excellent quarterback play and teams with winning records. Teams that had a passer efficiency of greater than 80.00 had an overall record of 2460-2110-6 (.538 winning percentage; 8.6 wins per season); while teams that had a passer efficiency of less than 80.00 had an overall record of 1845-2231-4 (.453 winning percentage; 7.25 wins per season).

The correlation becomes even stronger when we increase the cut-off point slightly. Teams that had a passer efficiency of greater than 82.00 had an overall record of 1721-1267-4 (.576 winning percentage; 9.2 wins per season); while teams that had a passer efficiency of less than 82.00 had an overall record of 2584-3074-6 (.457 winning percentage; 7.3 wins per season).

Conversely, teams with an overall record of .500 or greater had an average passer efficiency rating of 84.48 (going up to 85.94 for teams averaging 9+ wins a season), while sub-.500 teams had an average passer efficiency rating of 77.58.

Therefore, it is not surprising that the Cleveland Browns, with by far the lowest passer efficiency rating (71.14), also had by far the worst overall record (85-187-0; .320 winning percentage; 5.1 wins per season).

There are some anomalies in the above table, most notably the Baltimore Ravens, who posted the NFL's 7th-best record (157-115-0; .577 winning percentage; 9.2 wins per season) and 7th-worst passer efficiency rating (76.28). Of course, the Ravens were able to win a large number of games (and a Super Bowl in 2000) with an historically strong defense, but even they eventually secured their own franchise quarterback (Joe Flacco; 75-47 record; 84.7 passer efficiency rating) who led them to an equally large number of wins and a second Super Bowl victory in 2012.

Some other anomalies occur at the other end of the spectrum, where the Oakland Raiders and the Saint Louis (now Los Angeles) Rams seem to have better passer efficiency ratings than their overall records would suggest. So let's take a closer look at both teams:

Oakland Raiders QBs	Complete	Attempts	Comp Pct	Yards Passing	---TDs---	---INTs--	Passing Eff	W/L Record	-Win Pct-
1999 - 2002 (Gannon)	1,372	2,167	.633	15,097	105	44	91.56	41 - 23 - 0	.641
2003 - 2015	3,921	6,931	.566	41,888	236	228	72.05	63 - 145 - 0	.303

When Rich Gannon was playing at a Hall of Fame level (1999 to 2002), the Raiders were one of the best teams in the NFL. Gannon suffered serious injuries in 2003 and 2004, the second of which forced his retirement from football. From 2003 to 2013, the Raiders' revolving door at quarterback was almost as bad as the Browns', with no less than seventeen quarterbacks getting at least one start, and no single quarterback earning more than 28 starts. The Raiders' quarterback situation was not finally stabilized until 2014, when rookie Derek Carr locked down the job - he appears to be the franchise quarterback that the Raiders spent a decade searching for.

Saint Louis Rams QBs	Complete	Attempts	Comp Pct	Yards Passing	---TDs---	---INTs--	Passing Eff	W/L Record	-Win Pct-
1999 - 2003 (Warner)	1,887	2,903	.650	22,363	163	110	91.28	56 - 24 - 0	.700
2004 - 2015	3,951	6,598	.599	40,135	214	199	75.57	64 - 127 - 1	.336

The Rams had one of the great offensive juggernauts of all time with running back Marshall Faulk, wide receivers Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt, and quarterback Kurt Warner leading the way. While the Greatest Show on Turf lasted, the Rams were a perennial favorite to win the Super Bowl (and they did so following the 1999 season), but when their quarterback play deteriorated the wins dried up. The Rams have had sixteen starting quarterbacks since 2004 and they are still searching for the face of their franchise.

Continued below in Comments section....

 

That's a lot of 1st round QBs in 17 years. Especially over the last nine drafts when they've taken three.

Arguably a reason why they shouldn't spend a first rounder on a QB this year, but to say they've only taken "a few" when they're taking a first round QB every 3 to 4 years is misguided.

Hey now. 4 first round QBs over a 17 year span is one every 4-5 years, not 3-4. I'm just nitpicking there.

Now, when considering that the Browns have only had successful QB play for maybe one Derek Anderson year, that is 16 years of mediocre to below average QB play and yet they've ONLY tried four times to draft a QB in the first round. For most franchises, that isn't good when you've drafted that many over that span, for the Browns, it's surprising that they've only drafted four with QB play as shitty as it has been.

 

Hey now. 4 first round QBs over a 17 year span is one every 4-5 years, not 3-4. I'm just nitpicking there.

Now, when considering that the Browns have only had successful QB play for maybe one Derek Anderson year, that is 16 years of mediocre to below average QB play and yet they've ONLY tried four times to draft a QB in the first round. For most franchises, that isn't good when you've drafted that many over that span, for the Browns, it's surprising that they've only drafted four with QB play as [Mark May]ty as it has been.

For some reason I im guessing the problem isn't the qbs that have come in. It's what happens to them once they put on a brown uniform. They run for their life and get zero help. They are not put Ina position to be successful. I imagine wentz breathed a sigh of relief today. (And tunsil is crying about the millions he just lost)

 

For some reason I im guessing the problem isn't the qbs that have come in. It's what happens to them once they put on a brown uniform. They run for their life and get zero help. They are not put Ina position to be successful. I imagine wentz breathed a sigh of relief today. (And tunsil is crying about the millions he just lost)

I believe that all of the noise I have made in this thread shows that I am with you on that one. :cheers:

 

@LordJeffBuck You would be correct if this was any other franchise. You speak in generalities, but this is the Browns.

Yes, an elite QB is the lifeblood for any team to make the playoffs on a consistent basis. But besides Joe Thomas, name me one player you wouldn't be completely remiss if they never played another down for this team? Haden or Barnidge? They cut Whitner and lost Mack. This team needs to rebuild completely and QB at #2 isn't going to save them. They need multiple picks and should trade down if that's an option. Otherwise, get the BPA, which seems to be Tunsil and figure out which side he should play on. Wentz or Goff is a crapshoot. Yes, the Rams traded up for one of them, but they need a face of the new LA franchise. When it comes to the Browns draft, I assume the surrender cobra position in advance of the name announced. Something, something... Pavlov.

 

Trading down forfeits the only benefit of sucking.

The last time they traded down in the first round they ended up with Justin Gilbert and Johnny Manziel. I don't know about the rest of you, but I'm just dying to do that all over again.

 

The last time they traded down in the first round they ended up with Justin Gilbert and Johnny Manziel. I don't know about the rest of you, but I'm just dying to do that all over again.

Yeah, but they could have drafted Odell Beckham, Jr. and Bradley Roby and Derek Carr in Round 2. If they'd done that, we wouldn't be having this Wentz/Goff debate right now (or drafting at #2).

But this year, I stick at #2 and hope to benefit from last year's sucking.

 

Yeah, but they could have drafted Odell Beckham, Jr. and Bradley Roby and Derek Carr in Round 2. If they'd done that, we wouldn't be having this Wentz/Goff debate right now (or drafting at #2).

But this year, I stick at #2 and hope to benefit from last year's sucking.

Agreed. The trade down wasn't a bad move. They just Browned it up.

 

While I expect the rams to take wentz, it appears that they may have a genuine debate going on. So, the Browns need to be ready for either eventuality. That may include whoever is on the board at 2 and the eagles, 9ers or whoever making an aggressive move to 2. If someone does want to throw everything and the kitchen sink to do it, they do need to consider what that looks like. The more this goes, the more it looks like teams may have a preference but wentz and goff are 1a and 1b at the moment. If you're looking at a first and a second both this year and next year, you have to decide how much you like either of them in a vacuum.

 

... you have to decide how much you like either of them in a vacuum.

In a vacuum, they both suck...

Get it?

(I'll show my self out..)

 

 

Guess taking goff and putting nothing else around him puts them at a good shot for the no 1 overall next year. I expect better options at qb next year so someone could give a ransom for that.

 

Guess taking goff and putting nothing else around him puts them at a good shot for the no 1 overall next year. I expect better options at qb next year so someone could give a ransom for that.

Yep and then the Browns COULD get one of those guys but they'll pass after blowing their load this year. However, it is still a long way away from truly determining the quality and depth of next years QB draft class.

But they won't be "putting nothing else around him." They'll still have other picks this year. But before knowing how successful they will be at nailing those other picks, we are putting what will become our most valuable asset (QB drafted at #2) at risk, pretty much instantly because what the Browns have currently in place, is a team full of clowns. Desperation is a stinky cologne and the Browns are a really stinky team.

 

Yep and then the Browns COULD get one of those guys but they'll pass after blowing their load this year. However, it is still a long way away from truly determining the quality and depth of next years QB draft class.

But they won't be "putting nothing else around him." They'll still have other picks this year. But before knowing how successful they will be at nailing those other picks, we are putting what will become our most valuable asset (QB drafted at #2) at risk, pretty much instantly because what the Browns have currently in place, is a team full of clowns. Desperation is a stinky cologne and the Browns are a really stinky team.

If they browns pick a QB with #2, I fully expect them to go BPA with the 2nd/3rd/4th round picks. The problem is those players will all probably be defensive guys.