Josh Dooley
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What If: Nick Saban hadn’t retired following the 2023 season?
Josh Dooley via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Rob Schumacher / USA TODAY NETWORK
Ohio State already benefitted immensely from the former Alabama coach’s retirement.
From now until preseason camp starts in August, Land-Grant Holy Land will be writing articles around a different theme every week. This week is all about our imagination. You can catch up on all of the Theme Week content here and all of our What If columns here.
On Jan. 10 of this year, just days removed from Alabama’s loss in the Rose Bowl to Michigan, longtime Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban surprised many by announcing his retirement. After 17 seasons in Tuscaloosa and 28 total as a college head coach, the living legend and GOAT decided to hang it up rather than witness(ing) the slow, painful death of the game he had grown to love and dominate.
Ok, so maybe he didn’t say the last part out loud, but it was certainly implied. And frankly, I couldn’t and wouldn’t have blamed him if he did point to the current state of the game as his primary reason for getting out.
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Photo by Keith Birmingham/MediaNews Group/Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images
Regardless of why Saban walked away, the fact that he did set off a chain reaction of events or happenings that would and will shape CFB for at least the next few years. One of the many falling dominoes attributed to Saban’s exit was a mass exodus of Alabama players, led by star safety Caleb Downs and incoming freshman quarterback Julian Sayin, both of whom ended up at Ohio State. Joining them was center Seth McLaughlin, forming a trio of Bama players that accounted for half of OSU’s winter transfer portal additions.
Not surprisingly, said trio has acclimated quite well to Columbus. Downs is virtually guaranteed to start and star for the Scarlet and Gray, while McLaughlin is a safe bet to do the same, and Sayin has pockets of Buckeye Nation already referring to him as Ohio State’s next star quarterback. Whether or not the latter comes to fruition, who knows? However, one thing that has already been proven with certainty is that OSU benefitted immensely from Saban’s retirement.
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Photo by Jason Mowry/Getty Images
But what if the GOAT had chosen to continue as head coach of the Crimson Tide? How different would Ryan Day’s team look, this year and beyond? What would the long-term impact have been on Ohio State, if any? Or what... What if Saban stuck around just long enough to beat Day and the Buckeyes in the 2024-25 national championship game!?
The obvious truth is that we will never know. But it sure is fun to speculate and/or wonder. Which is the point of this week’s LGHL theme: What If?
So with that being said, I thought that it would be both fun and interesting to run through the above Saban scenario(s) in my head. And then attempt to recap my fantastical findings coherently. Here’s what I came up with:
For starters, Ohio State would never have landed Downs and/or Sayin. It just wasn’t going to happen with Saban still at the crimson helm. And while this may not have been a huge blow to OSU’s QB situation in 2024, it most definitely would have had an adverse effect on the Buckeyes’ secondary.
Had Saban and Downs both remained in Tuscaloosa, Tim Walton and Matt Guerrieri might have ended up with a safety depth chart consisting of Lathan Ransom and “some guys”. And that’s no shot at Malik Hartford, Jayden Bonsu, (possibly) Ja’had Carter, or anybody else. It’s just that Ohio State’s other safeties are seriously lacking in the experience department.
Now who knows, maybe OSU could or would have ended up with Jardin Gilbert or Andrew Mukuba instead, the No. 2 and No. 3-ranked transfer safeties, respectively. But let’s be honest, those guys are a notch or two (or three) below Downs in terms of talent, potential, production, etc. The latter not only filled a position of need for the Buckeyes, but he also has three years of eligibility remaining, whereas Gilbert and Mukuba only have one or two each. I’ll have more on that later.
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Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK
As for Saban’s retirement having an impact on Ohio State’s QB situation – in 2024 specifically – well... I guess I just don’t think there’s much of one (an impact). I certainly don’t wish to downplay Sayin’s talent or minimize his potential long-term impact in any way, but at the same time, I also don’t anticipate the latter leading the Buckeyes to a natty this season.
Don’t get me wrong, I absolutely, unequivocally, 100% believe that Sayin will eventually be a special college player. And I guess I wouldn’t be shocked if he supplants Will Howard as OSU’s starter at some point during the upcoming season. But earning a starting gig and becoming a difference maker or freshman Heisman Trophy contender are very different outcomes.
Even if Sayin were to be named Ryan Day’s starter at any point in 2024, I just don’t think that he (or Howard) will be the reason Ohio State wins. If the Buckeyes win – and win a lot – I believe that it will be because of the team’s defense, running game, playmakers, and coaching. This means that Saban’s decision to retire will likely have minimal impact on OSU’s QB situation. This year.
But in the slightly more distant future? Like 2025 and beyond? Well, now we’re talking about something completely different. Something beyond the impact and/or influence of Downs and Sayin. Because while Downs is already that good and Sayin that talented (and McLaughlin that experienced), those players are likely not determining championships on their own.
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25485162/usa_today_22402814.jpg)
Doral Chenoweth/The Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK
Conversely, one individual who has seemingly determined championships on their own is Saban. I mean, he’s the GOAT for a reason, right? So if he had chosen to continue as Alabama’s head coach, he definitely would have kept Downs and Sayin in Tuscaloosa while also robbing Ohio State of a few key pieces. And then there’s the whole recruiting, Kalen DeBoer, Jedd Fisch, etc. angle. But let’s keep this OSU-centric. Here is my best guess as to how Saban’s presence would have impacted the Buckeyes in general and the CFB world as a whole in 2024, 2025, and beyond.
Even without Downs and Sayin, and possibly McLaughlin, Ohio State still kicks serious ass in ‘24 so much so that they earn a spot in the CFP final... against Alabama! Then, in the championship game, Jalen Milroe can’t hit the broad side of a barn against OSU’s stingy defense, leading to calls for Sayin from the Bama faithful.
But unlike (in) 2017, Saban is hesitant to pull the trigger. He leaves Milroe in to throw three interceptions, one of which is picked off by Malik Hartford, Ohio State’s ball-hawking All-American safety. The Buckeyes defeat the Crimson Tide 31-6, and Saban announces his retirement from the losing locker room.
Upon his former coach’s retirement, Downs transfers to OSU in January 2025. As does Sayin, who was very upset about not playing in the CFP. Downs and Sayin then convince Keon Keeley to join them in Columbus, where Ryan Day is king.
Ohio State completes a back-to-back in ’25, and the rest is history. Day establishes himself as the best coach in CFB, while Saban flourishes as a Little Debbie spokesperson.
And that, folks, is the answer to “What if Nick Saban never retired following the 2023 season?” Argue if you like, but it seems pretty obvious to yours truly.
Continue reading...
Josh Dooley via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Rob Schumacher / USA TODAY NETWORK
Ohio State already benefitted immensely from the former Alabama coach’s retirement.
From now until preseason camp starts in August, Land-Grant Holy Land will be writing articles around a different theme every week. This week is all about our imagination. You can catch up on all of the Theme Week content here and all of our What If columns here.
On Jan. 10 of this year, just days removed from Alabama’s loss in the Rose Bowl to Michigan, longtime Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban surprised many by announcing his retirement. After 17 seasons in Tuscaloosa and 28 total as a college head coach, the living legend and GOAT decided to hang it up rather than witness(ing) the slow, painful death of the game he had grown to love and dominate.
Ok, so maybe he didn’t say the last part out loud, but it was certainly implied. And frankly, I couldn’t and wouldn’t have blamed him if he did point to the current state of the game as his primary reason for getting out.
Regardless of why Saban walked away, the fact that he did set off a chain reaction of events or happenings that would and will shape CFB for at least the next few years. One of the many falling dominoes attributed to Saban’s exit was a mass exodus of Alabama players, led by star safety Caleb Downs and incoming freshman quarterback Julian Sayin, both of whom ended up at Ohio State. Joining them was center Seth McLaughlin, forming a trio of Bama players that accounted for half of OSU’s winter transfer portal additions.
Not surprisingly, said trio has acclimated quite well to Columbus. Downs is virtually guaranteed to start and star for the Scarlet and Gray, while McLaughlin is a safe bet to do the same, and Sayin has pockets of Buckeye Nation already referring to him as Ohio State’s next star quarterback. Whether or not the latter comes to fruition, who knows? However, one thing that has already been proven with certainty is that OSU benefitted immensely from Saban’s retirement.
But what if the GOAT had chosen to continue as head coach of the Crimson Tide? How different would Ryan Day’s team look, this year and beyond? What would the long-term impact have been on Ohio State, if any? Or what... What if Saban stuck around just long enough to beat Day and the Buckeyes in the 2024-25 national championship game!?
The obvious truth is that we will never know. But it sure is fun to speculate and/or wonder. Which is the point of this week’s LGHL theme: What If?
So with that being said, I thought that it would be both fun and interesting to run through the above Saban scenario(s) in my head. And then attempt to recap my fantastical findings coherently. Here’s what I came up with:
For starters, Ohio State would never have landed Downs and/or Sayin. It just wasn’t going to happen with Saban still at the crimson helm. And while this may not have been a huge blow to OSU’s QB situation in 2024, it most definitely would have had an adverse effect on the Buckeyes’ secondary.
Had Saban and Downs both remained in Tuscaloosa, Tim Walton and Matt Guerrieri might have ended up with a safety depth chart consisting of Lathan Ransom and “some guys”. And that’s no shot at Malik Hartford, Jayden Bonsu, (possibly) Ja’had Carter, or anybody else. It’s just that Ohio State’s other safeties are seriously lacking in the experience department.
Now who knows, maybe OSU could or would have ended up with Jardin Gilbert or Andrew Mukuba instead, the No. 2 and No. 3-ranked transfer safeties, respectively. But let’s be honest, those guys are a notch or two (or three) below Downs in terms of talent, potential, production, etc. The latter not only filled a position of need for the Buckeyes, but he also has three years of eligibility remaining, whereas Gilbert and Mukuba only have one or two each. I’ll have more on that later.
As for Saban’s retirement having an impact on Ohio State’s QB situation – in 2024 specifically – well... I guess I just don’t think there’s much of one (an impact). I certainly don’t wish to downplay Sayin’s talent or minimize his potential long-term impact in any way, but at the same time, I also don’t anticipate the latter leading the Buckeyes to a natty this season.
Don’t get me wrong, I absolutely, unequivocally, 100% believe that Sayin will eventually be a special college player. And I guess I wouldn’t be shocked if he supplants Will Howard as OSU’s starter at some point during the upcoming season. But earning a starting gig and becoming a difference maker or freshman Heisman Trophy contender are very different outcomes.
Even if Sayin were to be named Ryan Day’s starter at any point in 2024, I just don’t think that he (or Howard) will be the reason Ohio State wins. If the Buckeyes win – and win a lot – I believe that it will be because of the team’s defense, running game, playmakers, and coaching. This means that Saban’s decision to retire will likely have minimal impact on OSU’s QB situation. This year.
But in the slightly more distant future? Like 2025 and beyond? Well, now we’re talking about something completely different. Something beyond the impact and/or influence of Downs and Sayin. Because while Downs is already that good and Sayin that talented (and McLaughlin that experienced), those players are likely not determining championships on their own.
Conversely, one individual who has seemingly determined championships on their own is Saban. I mean, he’s the GOAT for a reason, right? So if he had chosen to continue as Alabama’s head coach, he definitely would have kept Downs and Sayin in Tuscaloosa while also robbing Ohio State of a few key pieces. And then there’s the whole recruiting, Kalen DeBoer, Jedd Fisch, etc. angle. But let’s keep this OSU-centric. Here is my best guess as to how Saban’s presence would have impacted the Buckeyes in general and the CFB world as a whole in 2024, 2025, and beyond.
Even without Downs and Sayin, and possibly McLaughlin, Ohio State still kicks serious ass in ‘24 so much so that they earn a spot in the CFP final... against Alabama! Then, in the championship game, Jalen Milroe can’t hit the broad side of a barn against OSU’s stingy defense, leading to calls for Sayin from the Bama faithful.
But unlike (in) 2017, Saban is hesitant to pull the trigger. He leaves Milroe in to throw three interceptions, one of which is picked off by Malik Hartford, Ohio State’s ball-hawking All-American safety. The Buckeyes defeat the Crimson Tide 31-6, and Saban announces his retirement from the losing locker room.
Upon his former coach’s retirement, Downs transfers to OSU in January 2025. As does Sayin, who was very upset about not playing in the CFP. Downs and Sayin then convince Keon Keeley to join them in Columbus, where Ryan Day is king.
Ohio State completes a back-to-back in ’25, and the rest is history. Day establishes himself as the best coach in CFB, while Saban flourishes as a Little Debbie spokesperson.
And that, folks, is the answer to “What if Nick Saban never retired following the 2023 season?” Argue if you like, but it seems pretty obvious to yours truly.
Continue reading...