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What DeKeyser’s Contract Means for Ceci
TDS Staff via our good friends at Buckeye Battle Cry
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Red Wings re-sign Danny DeKeyser. Six years and $30-million.
— James Mirtle (@mirtle) July 26, 2016
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This morning the Detroit Red Wings and restricted free agent Danny De… Christ what did he just sign for?!
That is a staggering amount of cash for a player who has failed to establish himself as a defensive or offensive defenceman in each and every one of the four seasons that he has played in during his career.
DeKeyser has only tallied 14 goals and 75 points in 234 career games and his career highs for goals and points in a season are eight and 31 respectively. Since he has never demonstrated that he’s been a consistent offensive producer, one would imagine that the metrics would portray DeKeyser as a shining defensive example, but even there, the numbers leave something to be desired.
Throughout DeKeyser’s career, his relative shot generation, relative shot suppression and relative possession numbers have been mediocre.
So what could help account for the fact that DeKeyser got such a lavish contract?
Well, to Detroit, he’s a known commodity who finished second on the Red Wings in average ice time per game with 21:48. Mixing in the fact that he only had one more year left of restricted free agent status probably helped, but if anything, it looks like DeKeyser is cashing in on the fact that he had a career year in terms of goals and primary point production.
Dominic Galamini’s Own the Puck website and its excellent ‘Hero Chart’ tool provide a great visual aid to depict how DeKeyser performed on the ice and in going through DeKeyser’s history, the production rates noticeably spiked from his career history.
Jeez, I wonder why those production rates spiked?
Oh, it probably had something to do with the fact that his shooting percentage was 11.1-percent last season – which was almost two and a half times higher than his previous career high. The boosted goal totals were luck driven.
But wait, this is a Senators blog, so why is any of this important?
Well, even though DeKeyser is four years older than Cody Ceci and again, had only one-year left of restricted free agent status (hence putting more pressure on the Red Wings to extend DeKeyser beyond this forthcoming season), it’s hard to ignore the similarities between their underlying numbers.
Again, using Own the Puck‘s comparison option in the ‘Hero Chart’ tool, it’s easy to see the similarities in the underlying numbers.
In my end of the year post eulogizing the 2015-16 Senators, I discussed the praise that Ceci received for his improved performance once Dion Phaneuf stepped into the lineup.
“Here is a look at how Ceci fared at five-on-five before and after the trade (note: the following numbers are courtesy of War On Ice):
G/60 Pts/60 CF% PDO PSh%
Oct-Feb 9th 0.2 0.9 42.1 101.6 5.0
Feb 10th onward 0.6 1.0 48.0 103.7 12.2
Ceci’s numbers unquestionably improved across the board and from an eye-test perspective, Ceci was noticeably more assertive with the puck and jumped into the play more aggressively than he has at any other point in his career, but it’s impossible to not to look at his personal shooting percentage and believe that Ceci benefitted from some pretty good fortune.
Delving a little bit deeper thanks to the Puckalytics.com’s ‘Super WOWY’ tool, this pairing shared the ice together for 217:38 of ice time generating 48.5-percent of the shot attempts. The duo was on for 61.5-percent of the total goals, but you don’t have to look further than Ceci’s individual shooting percentage or the fact that Ottawa’s goaltenders stopped 96.18-percent of the shots when they were on the ice to realize that luck factored heavily into this pairing’s success.”
Like DeKeyser, Ceci’s production benefited from a massive spike in his shooting percentage that more than doubled his previous regular season high.
The concern for Senators fans is a situation wherein Ceci is overcompensated like DeKeyser was for an uptick in offensive production that will difficult to consistently replicate.
Granted, there’s something to be said about locking up Ceci to a long-term contract that could save the organization more money down the road provided Ceci has a very good 2016-17 season. Given the circumstances however, I would be incredibly wary, if I’m Senators management, about handing over a long-term contract to a player who has demonstrably been a nominal second pairing defenceman for two years now. It’s not his fault that the organization rushed him into this role, nor is it his fault that there aren’t any in-house alternatives to compete for his spot or push him further down the depth chart, but at the same time, I’d be really hesitant to commit big dollars and term to a player on a leap in faith believing that Phaneuf has reformed Ceci’s game.
While the risk is there that the Senators could lose out on some savings long-term, I believe the risk of overcompensating Ceci is too great. Last year’s small sample size isn’t enough. A one-year bridge deal that allows the organization to better assess how he can performance he can turn in alongside Phaneuf is preferable for a small market franchise that literally cannot afford to paper over mistakes. (As an aside, if the Senators locked up Ceci, in theory they could always elect to buy out his contract at one-third the cost before Ceci turns 26-years old, but given the contracts that Ottawa shipped out to land Phaneuf’s albatross of a deal, it’s obvious that buy-outs are a last resort for the organization.)
If there’s any consolation to these Ceci negotiations, it’s that the Senators do have a history of squeezing their RFAs to get favourable deals. After this morning’s DeKeyser announcement however, you couldn’t really blame J.P. Barry or Ceci for feeling pretty damn good however.
Continue reading...
TDS Staff via our good friends at Buckeye Battle Cry
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Red Wings re-sign Danny DeKeyser. Six years and $30-million.
— James Mirtle (@mirtle) July 26, 2016
//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
This morning the Detroit Red Wings and restricted free agent Danny De… Christ what did he just sign for?!
That is a staggering amount of cash for a player who has failed to establish himself as a defensive or offensive defenceman in each and every one of the four seasons that he has played in during his career.
DeKeyser has only tallied 14 goals and 75 points in 234 career games and his career highs for goals and points in a season are eight and 31 respectively. Since he has never demonstrated that he’s been a consistent offensive producer, one would imagine that the metrics would portray DeKeyser as a shining defensive example, but even there, the numbers leave something to be desired.
Throughout DeKeyser’s career, his relative shot generation, relative shot suppression and relative possession numbers have been mediocre.
So what could help account for the fact that DeKeyser got such a lavish contract?
Well, to Detroit, he’s a known commodity who finished second on the Red Wings in average ice time per game with 21:48. Mixing in the fact that he only had one more year left of restricted free agent status probably helped, but if anything, it looks like DeKeyser is cashing in on the fact that he had a career year in terms of goals and primary point production.
Dominic Galamini’s Own the Puck website and its excellent ‘Hero Chart’ tool provide a great visual aid to depict how DeKeyser performed on the ice and in going through DeKeyser’s history, the production rates noticeably spiked from his career history.
Jeez, I wonder why those production rates spiked?
Oh, it probably had something to do with the fact that his shooting percentage was 11.1-percent last season – which was almost two and a half times higher than his previous career high. The boosted goal totals were luck driven.
But wait, this is a Senators blog, so why is any of this important?
Well, even though DeKeyser is four years older than Cody Ceci and again, had only one-year left of restricted free agent status (hence putting more pressure on the Red Wings to extend DeKeyser beyond this forthcoming season), it’s hard to ignore the similarities between their underlying numbers.
Again, using Own the Puck‘s comparison option in the ‘Hero Chart’ tool, it’s easy to see the similarities in the underlying numbers.
In my end of the year post eulogizing the 2015-16 Senators, I discussed the praise that Ceci received for his improved performance once Dion Phaneuf stepped into the lineup.
“Here is a look at how Ceci fared at five-on-five before and after the trade (note: the following numbers are courtesy of War On Ice):
G/60 Pts/60 CF% PDO PSh%
Oct-Feb 9th 0.2 0.9 42.1 101.6 5.0
Feb 10th onward 0.6 1.0 48.0 103.7 12.2
Ceci’s numbers unquestionably improved across the board and from an eye-test perspective, Ceci was noticeably more assertive with the puck and jumped into the play more aggressively than he has at any other point in his career, but it’s impossible to not to look at his personal shooting percentage and believe that Ceci benefitted from some pretty good fortune.
Delving a little bit deeper thanks to the Puckalytics.com’s ‘Super WOWY’ tool, this pairing shared the ice together for 217:38 of ice time generating 48.5-percent of the shot attempts. The duo was on for 61.5-percent of the total goals, but you don’t have to look further than Ceci’s individual shooting percentage or the fact that Ottawa’s goaltenders stopped 96.18-percent of the shots when they were on the ice to realize that luck factored heavily into this pairing’s success.”
Like DeKeyser, Ceci’s production benefited from a massive spike in his shooting percentage that more than doubled his previous regular season high.
The concern for Senators fans is a situation wherein Ceci is overcompensated like DeKeyser was for an uptick in offensive production that will difficult to consistently replicate.
Granted, there’s something to be said about locking up Ceci to a long-term contract that could save the organization more money down the road provided Ceci has a very good 2016-17 season. Given the circumstances however, I would be incredibly wary, if I’m Senators management, about handing over a long-term contract to a player who has demonstrably been a nominal second pairing defenceman for two years now. It’s not his fault that the organization rushed him into this role, nor is it his fault that there aren’t any in-house alternatives to compete for his spot or push him further down the depth chart, but at the same time, I’d be really hesitant to commit big dollars and term to a player on a leap in faith believing that Phaneuf has reformed Ceci’s game.
While the risk is there that the Senators could lose out on some savings long-term, I believe the risk of overcompensating Ceci is too great. Last year’s small sample size isn’t enough. A one-year bridge deal that allows the organization to better assess how he can performance he can turn in alongside Phaneuf is preferable for a small market franchise that literally cannot afford to paper over mistakes. (As an aside, if the Senators locked up Ceci, in theory they could always elect to buy out his contract at one-third the cost before Ceci turns 26-years old, but given the contracts that Ottawa shipped out to land Phaneuf’s albatross of a deal, it’s obvious that buy-outs are a last resort for the organization.)
If there’s any consolation to these Ceci negotiations, it’s that the Senators do have a history of squeezing their RFAs to get favourable deals. After this morning’s DeKeyser announcement however, you couldn’t really blame J.P. Barry or Ceci for feeling pretty damn good however.
Continue reading...