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Week 7 Games Discussion

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Bestbuck36 said:
I'm not buying that stuff. These guys play at different times every week. What's the difference from playing a 3pm game on the road or a noon game at home? I get it if Washington had to go to Miami and play a noon game or Maryland plays at Hawaii, that's a real issue. But I don't see the big deal usually

For us tonight as an example, it's a night game so the 3 hour time zone should not even factor, except for maybe the coaches since their bed times are probably 10EST!
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I'm only buying the jet lag argument if it was accompanied by a team wide food poisoning.
 
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Honestly, I don’t buy the jet lag argument either

i don’t know what the issue is, but it is a fact that teams underperform when playing 3 time zones away from home, and it does not matter which direction they fly

I ran all-FBS spreadsheets for years. I did a multi-year correlation. playing 3 time zones away from home affects the final point spread by over 14. And no, you can’t make money based on this because this is already baked into the point spreads. The handicappers know, the sharps know, this is just something that is.

i don’t think it’s jet lag, but I know it’s a thing. For me, this is not an opinion; it’s knowledge.
 
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DaddyBigBucks said:
Honestly, I don’t buy the jet lag argument either

i don’t know what the issue is, but it is a fact that teams underperform when playing 3 time zones away from home, and it does not matter which direction they fly

I ran all-FBS spreadsheets for years. I did a multi-year correlation. playing 3 time zones away from home affects the final point spread by over 14. And no, you can’t make money based on this because this is already baked into the point spreads. The handicappers know, the sharps know, this is just something that is.

i don’t think it’s jet lag, but I know it’s a thing. For me, this is not an opinion; it’s knowledge.
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Interesting. So are you saying the Buckeyes would be favored by 17 playing at home?
 
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DaddyBigBucks said:
Honestly, I don’t buy the jet lag argument either

i don’t know what the issue is, but it is a fact that teams underperform when playing 3 time zones away from home, and it does not matter which direction they fly

I ran all-FBS spreadsheets for years. I did a multi-year correlation. playing 3 time zones away from home affects the final point spread by over 14. And no, you can’t make money based on this because this is already baked into the point spreads. The handicappers know, the sharps know, this is just something that is.

i don’t think it’s jet lag, but I know it’s a thing. For me, this is not an opinion; it’s knowledge.
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West to East would be much tougher in my opinion.
 
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Bestbuck36 said:
Interesting. So are you saying the Buckeyes would be favored by 17 playing at home?
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That’s about right, but mostly because the Buckeyes would get a 4 TD lead and the ducks are good enough to make it closer in the 4th

Seriously

Having said that, what I’ve provided here is information gleaned from dozens of hours of work. It is not my opinion of what will happen

An undeniable fact of statistical averages is that some people rise above them. My opinion of what will happen is that the Buckeyes will rise above the circumstances. I think this is that kind of team. I think the defense will be less susceptible than the offense. That’s why my pick in the game thread was 31-16
 
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Thump said:
West to East would be much tougher in my opinion.
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West to East is tougher travel, no doubt

The 14 point difference from the multi-year all-FBS study that I did showed no variability based on direction of travel. This is one of the reasons why I don’t think the cause is what we call jet lag. I don’t know what the cause is… but that doesn’t make me doubt the data. With that many data point, it’s a measurement, not an estimate
 
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DaddyBigBucks said:
Honestly, I don’t buy the jet lag argument either

i don’t know what the issue is, but it is a fact that teams underperform when playing 3 time zones away from home, and it does not matter which direction they fly

I ran all-FBS spreadsheets for years. I did a multi-year correlation. playing 3 time zones away from home affects the final point spread by over 14. And no, you can’t make money based on this because this is already baked into the point spreads. The handicappers know, the sharps know, this is just something that is.

i don’t think it’s jet lag, but I know it’s a thing. For me, this is not an opinion; it’s knowledge.
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I think it’s pretty simple….

Teams that have been losing actually blow.

UCLA? Sucks.

USC? Overrated.

Indiana? Not bad after all.

Washington? Not that good.

Penn State? The fraud of all frauds.
 
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