Week 4 Top Ten Recap
All spreads are from the upset contest thread
1) Georgia: 44 point favorite over Kent State ... won 39-22 (spread
-27)
2) Alabama: 40 point favorite over Vandy ... won 55-3 (spread
+12)
3) Ohio St.: 18.5 point favorite over Wiscy ... won 52-21 (spread
+12.5)
4) TTUN: 17 point favorite over Maryland ... won 34-27 (spread
-10)
5) Clemson: 7 point favorite over Wake Forest... won 51-45 OT (spread
-7)
**
This isn't a casino, it's a measurement of performance. Regulation ended in a tie; mark it zero.
6) Oklahoma: 13 point favorite over Kansas St ... lost 34-41 (spread
-20)
7) So Cal: 6.5 point favorite over Oregon St ... won 17-14 (spread
-3.5)
**
8) Kentucky: 25.5 point favorite over N. Ill ... won 31-23 (spread
-17.5)
9) Ok State: Bye Week
10) Arkansas: 2.5 point DOG to aTm ... lost 21-23 (spread
+.5)
**
First thing to note is that the above compares each team's results to the Vegas perception of them, not to the AP perception of them. It is clear from some of those lines that the Vegas perception and the AP perception were at variance. Most notably is that #23 aTm was favored over #10 Arkansas (and Vegas nailed that one). It could also be argued that Clemson being only a 7 point favorite over #21 Wake Forest is an indication that Vegas knew something that the AP voters didn't (
shocking). A team that belongs at #7 should pound the Beavers pretty good, but Vegas had SoCal as only a 6.5 point favorite. These games have thus been marked with (
**) to indicate that the result is more at variance with the AP ranking than with the spread. (One could argue that the TUN game should be marked as such; but to me the jury is out on both TTUN and MD)
When you consider that both #11 Tennessee and #12 NC State also under-performed vs the spread yesterday, it is clear that every single team in college football has either under-performed at least once this year or has played absolutely no one (looking at you Minnesota, though you clearly deserve to be ranked). The point here is that, after the top 3 (who have each had at least one bad game themselves), you can easily point to literally every team in college football and say, "That team does not belong in the top ten." But seven teams, aside from the top 3, DO belong in the top 10. One simply has to acknowledge; 1) the gulf between the top 3 and everyone else, and 2) the parity on that next tier. There isn't true parity in college football per se, but within tiers there is a great deal of parity. The second tier seems to be both larger and more flawed (farther below tier 1) than I remember it ever having been before. Or at least that's my perception of it after week 4.