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UCLA 13, USC 9 (final)

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i love how most of the college football world acts like this game doesnt exist. im pretty sure UCLA dominated oregon state earlier in the year and then oregon state went on to beat USC. plus these two teams are cross town rivals and besides last year it usually turns out to be a pretty good game. markey is doing better in the running game for the bruins and they are a developing team. that being said i think USC wins but i think its hilarious how the rest of the college football world just turns their head and says "oh its ohio state vs USC in the title game". any given saturday folks and i really wouldnt be that surprised if UCLA did end up winning frankly.
 
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Jeffcat;671287; said:
i love how most of the college football world acts like this game doesnt exist. im pretty sure UCLA dominated oregon state earlier in the year and then oregon state went on to beat USC.
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If you want to play that game, then you could argue that Notre Dame beat UCLA, but then USC went on to dominate Notre Dame. I really don't think those kind of connections really hold any water, because different games have different situations. I would be shocked if Pete Carroll or any USC player was looking past UCLA, because they have been to the championship game the past 2 seasons and know what it takes to close out a season.

I also think USC is much more talented athletically, has better coaches, and has every motivation to win as UCLA does. UCLA lost a lot of my respect after choking against Notre Dame earlier this season, and showing they didn't know how to close out a big game.
 
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DaddyBigBucks;671384; said:
Fun stat for the day:


3rd Down Defense - National Ranking
UCLA: 1​

USC: 64​
Not a typo...
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Interesting stat. Then again, I refuse to give much credit to a defense that can't keep ND from going 80 yards for a TD in just over a minute with no timeouts left.
 
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DSA

Differential Statistical Analysis for the USC-UCLA game:

Quick Explanation (skip if you're familiar with DSA):

DSA provides a pair of predictions for a game based on statistics. If the predictions were good for anything other than discussion, I wouldn't post them here, but would rather keep them a closely guarded secret and use them to make lots of money. In short, this is "For Entertainment Purposes Only".

The first step in DSA is to find each teams Differential Offense and Differential Defense. Differential Offense (Defense) is how well you do offensively compared to your opponents' average defense (offense). It is expressed as a percentage.

As an example, USC's Differential Total Defense (DTD) is 86%. This means that USC hold teams to 86% of their average Total Offense. By comparison, USC's Differential Scoring Defense (DSD) is 75%, indicating that they hold teams to 75% of their average Scoring Offense.

The second step of this two-step process is to multiply each team's average offense by the other team's differential defense; and to multiply each team's average defense by the other team's differential offense. This gives two sets of predictions for the game.
​
The Numbers

USC Yards: 338 - 352
UCLA Yards: 272 - 279

USC Points: 24 - 27
UCLA Points: 14 - 14 (both methods predict 14 points)


Other Factors

Factors affecting the numbers this week include:
  • Schedule Strength:
    • UCLA's Schedule is just as tough as USC's if you assume that Rice and Utah are equivalent to Arkansas and Nebraska.
    • Advantage USC
  • Momentum
    • USC's Differential Numbers show a general positive trend throughout the season.
    • UCLA's Differential Numbers are indicative of an inconsistent football team showing little improvement as the season wears on.
    • Advantage USC
  • 3rd Down Performance
    • UCLA Offense: 36.36% -- 75th in the NCAA
    • USC Offense: 46.58% -- 17th in the NCAA

    • UCLA Defense: 26.90% -- 1st in the NCAA

    • USC Defense: 38.65% -- 64th in the NCAA



Note: All numbers, with the exception of 3rd down performance, were calculated after all games involving Div. IA and Div. IAA teams have been factored out for every Div. IA team.
 
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From Scott Wolf's blog:

Keep Your Enemies Closer

Pete Carroll was asked Tuesday about the danger of looking past UCLA and toward the BCS title game.


But if anything, an informed person would argue the opposite is true. Carroll's spent more time watching or mentioning UCLA than any time since he arrived at USC. In past years, Carroll rarely mentioned UCLA in staff meetings or conversations with associates. He even rebuked a staff member for makng a dismissive remark about UCLA in one conversation.



This year, however, he frequently mentioned the Bruins whenever he was around Heritage Hall and kept a much closer eye on their stats and performances. Whether or not this concern is justified is different topic, but the fact is Carroll's pointed toward this game for months. Or at least had some concerns. I'll expand on this later in the week.
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Jeffcat;671287; said:
i love how most of the college football world acts like this game doesnt exist. im pretty sure UCLA dominated oregon state earlier in the year and then oregon state went on to beat USC. plus these two teams are cross town rivals and besides last year it usually turns out to be a pretty good game. markey is doing better in the running game for the bruins and they are a developing team. that being said i think USC wins but i think its hilarious how the rest of the college football world just turns their head and says "oh its ohio state vs USC in the title game". any given saturday folks and i really wouldnt be that surprised if UCLA did end up winning frankly.
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I see your point, but I could counter by saying the same thing about people who think this game will be close for whatever reason. 4 of the last 5 scores have been: 27-0, 52-21, 47-22, and 66-19 last year. This may be a rivalry game, but it doesn't exactly come down to a FG most of the time, at least recently.
 
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It may seem that The Trojans have owned the Bruins lately, but this rivalry is even streakier (it's a word NOW) than The Game.

Immediately preceding USC's recent run of 7 straight, UCLA won 8 in a row. So if Pete's boys punch their ticket for Glendale on Saturday, the series will be exactly even over the last 16 games, with a run of 8-in-a-row on each side.
 
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ScarletBlood31;671402; said:
If you want to play that game, then you could argue that Notre Dame beat UCLA, but then USC went on to dominate Notre Dame. I really don't think those kind of connections really hold any water, because different games have different situations. I would be shocked if Pete Carroll or any USC player was looking past UCLA, because they have been to the championship game the past 2 seasons and know what it takes to close out a season.

I also think USC is much more talented athletically, has better coaches, and has every motivation to win as UCLA does. UCLA lost a lot of my respect after choking against Notre Dame earlier this season, and showing they didn't know how to close out a big game.
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in a game which UCLA would of beat ND if they didnt break in the ending moments. i just think its a huge error on the part of college football to just overlook a rivalry game like this. do i think UCLA will win......no prolly not but if they end up beating UCLA im not going to call home about it and i wouldnt be surprised in any way shape or fashion. i love how USC-ND is such a huge game yet USC-UCLA isnt even there......oh wait USC has to play UCLA yet.
 
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