• Follow us on Twitter @buckeyeplanet and @bp_recruiting, like us on Facebook! Enjoy a post or article, recommend it to others! BP is only as strong as its community, and we only promote by word of mouth, so share away!
  • Consider registering! Fewer and higher quality ads, no emails you don't want, access to all the forums, download game torrents, private messages, polls, Sportsbook, etc. Even if you just want to lurk, there are a lot of good reasons to register!

Tropical Weather

Jump to latest Follow Reply
Sort by date Sort by votes
The blob on the left is NOT Taosman, but it is TD-9 (soon to be Ike). The blob on the right that just emerged off of the African Coast is known as Invest 99L (and possibly TD-10 here soon).....

20.jpg
 
Upvote 0
Heads Up

Hanna is now a Cat 1 hurricane and looks to be headed towards the Georgia/ S Carolina border. With bands from gustav clearing the way, little will stop this thing from growing. We could see another Cat 2 landfall or worse.

 
Upvote 0
hot damn it's picking up now...

000
WTNT44 KNHC 012043
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED...CURVED BANDS ARE BECOMING MORE DISTINCT
AND THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. ON THIS
BASIS...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM IKE WITH AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. GIVEN THE WARM OCEAN ALONG ITS PATH
AND THE LOW SHEAR...IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE RATE OF STRENGTHENING IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE BUT MUCH LOWER THAN THE GFDL AND SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER THAN THE HWRF. THE LATTER MAKES IKE AN INTENSE HURRICANE
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. THE STORM
IS ALREADY LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS
BUILDING AND EXPANDING WESTWARD ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS. THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...AS THE HIGH BUILDS
FARTHER WESTWARD...THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST OR EVEN
WEST-SOUTHWEST . THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. SINCE THE TRACK
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE RATHER TIGHT...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 17.7N 40.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 18.0N 42.8W 50 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 18.5N 45.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 19.5N 48.5W 70 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 51.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 21.5N 58.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 22.0N 64.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 22.0N 69.5W 80 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Click to expand...

204013W_sm.gif


Then there's Hanna:

00
WTNT43 KNHC 012050
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY FOUND A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 983 MB AND A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 89 KT. THESE
NUMBERS INDICATE HANNA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE FACE OF
WHAT APPEARS TO BE STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS
DIFFICULT SINCE GLOBAL MODES SHOW THE SHEAR REMAINING STRONG OR
POSSIBLY INCREASING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN HANNA'S
TENACITY THUS FAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES THAT HANNA WILL
BE ABLE TO FIGHT OFF THE SHEAR. AT DAY 5...HANNA IS FORECAST TO BE
INLAND SO WEAKENING IS SHOWN.

THE LAST FEW FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HANNA HAS BEEN
MEANDERING. HOWEVER...A 12-HOUR AVERAGE MOTION IS SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE. WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF HANNA NOW
DISSIPATED...THE CYCLONE'S MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC. AFTER THAT...GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE HANNA TO TURN
NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS WITH POTENTIAL AREAS OF
IMPACT RANGING FROM SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. UNTIL
HANNA TAKES A MORE DEFINITIVE MOTION...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO BE
MORE SPECIFIC ABOUT THE POTENTIAL THREAT AREA. ALL INTERESTS ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 22.2N 72.6W 70 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 21.9N 72.9W 75 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 21.8N 73.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 22.1N 73.9W 75 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 23.1N 74.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 27.0N 78.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 31.5N 81.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 39.0N 80.5W 25 KT...INLAND

$$
Click to expand...

Look for Hanna to blow up as the shear weakens....it'll likely be a major hurricane at landfall if the shear weakens....

000
WTNT42 KNHC 012052
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

THE CENTER OF GUSTAV IS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA JUST
NORTH OF LAFAYETTE. WSR-88D DATA FROM SLIDELL AND LAKE CHARLES
SHOW THAT THE EYE SEEN AT LANDFALL HAS FILLED AND BEEN REPLACED BY
A SOLID RAIN MASS NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT DOPPLER WINDS OF 90-100 KT ALOFT SUGGESTS
THERE SURFACE WINDS ARE PROBABLY NEAR 70 KT. GUSTAV IS NOW FAR
ENOUGH INLAND THAT IT SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN...AND IT IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATE
TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND A REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/14. GUSTAV IS BEING STEERED NORTHWESTWARD
BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AS A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THROUGH 36 HR...WITH MORE NORTHWARD MOTION SHOWN THEREAFTER AS THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THEIR PREVIOUS
RUNS.

STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE COASTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI WILL BE VERY SLOW TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE AS LONG AS GUSTAV KEEPS A VIABLE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 30.4N 92.0W 70 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 31.2N 93.2W 50 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 02/1800Z 32.1N 94.3W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 03/0600Z 32.6N 94.9W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 03/1800Z 33.0N 95.4W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 04/1800Z 34.0N 95.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 05/1800Z 35.0N 95.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 06/1800Z 36.0N 94.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Click to expand...

Gustav wasn't nearly as strong as it could have been. Still and all, it's going to be a mess down there and no preparation could have prevented it.

And for the next in the pipeline:

atl1.gif


1. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...A
COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 15
Click to expand...

I've not seen NHC essentially call a wave off of the African coast a depression since Ivan.
TO 20 MPH.
 
Upvote 0
Reuters: Storm humor on signs in evacuated New Orleans

Storm humor on signs in evacuated New Orleans - Yahoo! News

Storm humor on signs in evacuated New Orleans

Mon Sep 1, 3:39 PM ET

NEW ORLEANS (Reuters) - As Hurricane Gustav blew through nearly deserted streets in New Orleans on Monday, messages left by fleeing residents on the shuttered homes bore silent testimony to the city's sense of humor.

Three years after Hurricane Katrina's waters flooded 80 percent of the city, a weaker Gustav appeared to have listened to the evacuees' tongue-in-cheek appeals for mercy.

"Be Good Gustav, Not Like That Bitch Katrina!," read a sign in the city's historic Garden District, while another on a shop front nearby said "New Orleans: Proud to Swim Home!"

[...]

"Don't try. I'm sleeping inside with a .357, a pit bull, and six big snakes!" read one message brushed on the plywood shutters of a rug shop close to the city center.

A shuttered home in the historic Garden District declared: "Two dawgs and one ex-husband. Beware!"
Click to expand...
 
Upvote 0
SPECI KNBG 011648Z AUTO 13034G53KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR OVC022 26/25 A2928 RMK AO2 PK WND 12060/1632 RAB02 P0005 $;
Translation: Special observation KNBG (Navy New Orleans) 1 SEP 1648 GMT Automated sensor, Winds SE (130) 34KT (39MPH) gusting to 53KT (61MPH), Visibility 2 1/2 statute miles with light rain, clouds overcast at 2200', Temp 26 celsius, dew point 25 celsius. altimeter 29.28 inHG, Remarks: Peak wind from the SE (120) 60KT (69MPH) .05" rain.

KBTR 011953Z 08048G64KT 1 3/4SM RA BR BKN015 OVC025 26/24 A2901 RMK AO2 PK WND 06079/1912 SLP821 P0027 T02560239;
Translation: Hourly observation Baton Rouge 1 SEP 1953 GMT Winds E (080) 48KT (55MPH) gusting to 64KT (74MPH), Visibility 1 3/4 statute miles with moderate rain, clouds broken at 1500' and overcast at 2500', Temp 26 celsius, dew point 24 celsius. altimeter 29.01 inHG, Remarks: Peak wind from the NE (060) 79KT (91MPH) .27" rain over the past hour Temp 25.6 degrees celsius dewpoint 23.9 degrees celsius.
 
Upvote 0
TGfan06;1245422; said:
Hanna is now a Cat 1 hurricane and looks to be headed towards the Georgia/ S Carolina border. With bands from gustav clearing the way, little will stop this thing from growing. We could see another Cat 2 landfall or worse.
Click to expand...

Based on the GFDL Model run, it would be a cat 3 or 4 when it makes landfall

hanna08l.2008090118_anim.gif
 
Upvote 0
I guess it's as good a time as any to post this, now that everything seems to be fading away.

Some things are better left unfinished. Some not...

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wyqg8XvdElQ"]YouTube - Décima Sinfonia - Mahler[/ame]
 
Upvote 0
worst is yet to come

don't overlook hanna but Ike is turning into a monster. In just six hours it went from a tropical storm to a major Hurricane with winds at 115 mph. Now shear from hanna will in all likelyhood inhibit much more growth and may in fact weeken it, but that will only be in the short term.

Right now it appears the main target maybe south florida(ie. Miami). I still think the high pressure will pull this one like it will with hanna up closer towards Jacksonville as a Cat 3 or Cat 4 storm.
vis-l.jpg


 
Upvote 0
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top