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Tour de France 2009 - Who wins?

jlb1705;1503112; said:
Even if he had Kloden's blessing (I hadn't seen that yet), it was still a display of inexperience because he clearly misjudged the energy level of his main rivals.

It's not inexperience at all. It's his arrogance that leads him to believe he's unbeatable. And he might be. Contador has the very rarest of abilities, the ability to excelerate up hill. If you've ever climbed a hill you realize how tough that is and how unique an "ability" that is. That ability is his "ace in the hole".
 
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Taosman;1503124; said:
It's not inexperience at all. It's his arrogance that leads him to believe he's unbeatable. And he might be. Contador has the very rarest of abilities, the ability to excelerate up hill. If you've ever climbed a hill you realize how tough that is and how unique an "ability" that is. That ability is his "ace in the hole".

Alberto excels at excelerating.
 
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Taosman;1503124; said:
It's not inexperience at all. It's his arrogance that leads him to believe he's unbeatable. And he might be. Contador has the very rarest of abilities, the ability to excelerate up hill. If you've ever climbed a hill you realize how tough that is and how unique an "ability" that is. That ability is his "ace in the hole".

I disagree - not about his abilities, but about his relative lack of experience and wisdom. It's the same deficiency that caused him to get caught out when crosswinds split the peloton in the early stages. Armstrong not so subtly implied after that stage that Contador should have seen that coming and been in a postion to react to it. Armstrong even said pretty directly long before this tour that Contador still has much to learn. Does he have some arrogance? Sure. So does most everyone else in the peloton who has designs on being successful. It seems clear to me though that he still doesn't see the race beyond the immediate moment.
 
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jlb1705;1503105; said:
LA is not a threat because he's been a good teammate. Wiggins is not a threat because LA was a good teammate and sat on Wiggins' wheel and lost time himself instead of carrying him back to the group.

Lance's presser explains why he didn't accelerate early with Contador.
He was praised for his team work in "slowing" Wiggins down, but sounds like if he had it early he may have chosen to compete with the leaders.
"I couldn't find my acceleration to go with the other guys," Armstrong said. "I was there stuck with Wiggins. I had to wait until it got steeper, when you knew you could definitely go away.
"I probably should have gone with the early acceleration," he said.
On his Twitter feed, Armstrong wrote that the stage from Bourg-Saint-Maurice to Le Grand-Bornand was "No fun!!" and that he "had some cramps at the end." He repeatedly shook out his 37-year-old thighs on the final downhill.
Also, there's no two ways about it - Contador dropped Kloeden and just happened to get away with it. The rest of the team have pretty much said as much. It's not as if Contador would've stayed with him no matter what. If he couldn't hang with the regular pace of the group or with a Schleck bros. attack, then so be it. It was Contador's move that dropped him though - it was unnecessary, outside the manager's plan and really not smart on his part because he opened up no time on his main rival while isolating himself against him and his teammate. What if he got caught out by an acceleration (unlikely given his form, but still). What if there were a mechanical problem?

This may have been quoted earlier but it seems that Kloden gave him the go ahead for the attack, believing he could stay with Contador and the Schleck's.
Contador said he discussed attacking the Schlecks with team manager Johan Bruyneel by radio, who then advised him to take it up with Kloeden.
"He told me, 'Go for it,'" Contador said later. "Andreas told me that he could attack without problem -- but then the Schleck brothers surprised me a lot, and when I saw that it would be hard for me to make a gap I stopped.
"I'm not at all happy with what happened to Kloeden," he (contador) said.

Armstrong will not be on Astana next year - and neither will virtually anybody else of importance who's currently on the roster. That team was created expressly for Alexandre Vinokourov, who is currently serving a suspension for doping. His suspension ends after the TdF, and Vino & the Kazakh government have stated in no uncertain terms that he will be the leader of the team upon his return and he has no use for Bruyneel & his riders, who were brought in to "clean up" the team in the wake of the mini-scandal that nabbed Vinokourov.

Team RadioShack :: Coming 2010

A report indicates that Radio Shack will sponsor a new team for LA "Livestrong" with Bruyneel as manager.
 
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He may be not liked by everybody, but Contador is the man. He won the time trial today, and now owns over a 4 minute lead on the field.

00:00 Contador
04:11 Andy Schleck
05:25 Lance
05:36 Wiggins
05:38 Kloden
05:59 Frank Schleck

The Schlecks will try to get 35 seconds over Lance on Ventoux for Frank to get the last podium spot. I don't think Wiggins can get away from Lance, and I don't think Kloden would be allowed to try.

So the only drama left is between Frank Schleck and Lance for that last podium spot.
 
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I wonder if for once they'll let Lance attack rather then just follow along on Ventoux. I also wonder how much Andy gave to pull that TT off. Did he over exert himself and weaken himself.

The difference between Armstrong in his prime and Contador is Armstrong would of sat on the back the whole way opf the Schlecks and if they would of attacked he would of answered then kept on riding straight past them for his attack.

Contador is not losing this race unless he has a nasty crash though. I know one thing though. Armstrong won't play the team game with the challengers to Contador so far down. He'll be free to go as hard as he pleases.
 
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dragurd;1503261; said:
I wonder if for once they'll let Lance attack rather then just follow along on Ventoux. I also wonder how much Andy gave to pull that TT off. Did he over exert himself and weaken himself.

The difference between Armstrong in his prime and Contador is Armstrong would of sat on the back the whole way opf the Schlecks and if they would of attacked he would of answered then kept on riding straight past them for his attack.

Contador is not losing this race unless he has a nasty crash though. I know one thing though. Armstrong won't play the team game with the challengers to Contador so far down. He'll be free to go as hard as he pleases.

In my opinion, Lance would be making a serious mistake by attacking on Mont Ventoux. This isn't the Lance of 5 years ago that could ride away from almost anybody when he wanted to. If he attacks, the Schlecks could follow him until he got tired, and then counter-attack. Then Frank could get the 35 seconds he needs for the podium.

All Lance has to do is mark the Schlecks, and have Contador and Kloden help him chase down any of their attacks. Bruyneel should tell Contador: "Hey, you've won the tour - on Ventoux act like a teammate, and help Lance keep his spot on the podium."
 
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He probably will try but I haven't seen anything to make me think Contador would listen. I'd be nice to see Kloden and Armstrong Attack on Ventoux and Contador unable to follow for the stunts he's been pulling but I don't see that happening.
 
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No much happened today, although it was a surprise that a breakaway didn't work. Lance gained 4 seconds on the GC contenders at the end of the reace.

Cavendish got his 5th stage win, with Hushovd second.

00:00 Contador
04:11 Andy Schleck
05:21 Lance
05:36 Wiggins
05:38 Kloden
05:59 Frank Schleck
 
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As disappointed as I have been in a couple of Contador's moves you can mark them up to an honest attempt to win the tour. Tomorrow there is no advantage for him to do anything except mark Schleck and pay back some of what he owes Armstrong.

Tomorrow is perfectly designed for a final competitive stage. Granted, Contador has taken away most of the suspense. But even though Andy Schleck will be tough to catch, if he attacks to drag Frank up with him he could lose it all. In any case it should be a heck of a battle to see who stands on the podium.
 
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