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2020 tOSU Recruiting Discussion

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Buckeye86 said:
I don’t understand how Boise State, Wisconsin, Stanford, Oklahoma State, Oregon, South Carolina, and Florida State are equivalent or greater than Ohio State on the y-axis (better on the field) of that graph.
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The on-the-field performance metric included tOSU's losing 2011 season in its average 6 6 50 9 12 7 = 16.4 avg
Wisconsin seasons were 18 12 12 28 22 9 = 18.4 avg
Boise State: 4 5 5 26 53 10 = 18.6 avg Yes, Boise State was #4 in the 2009 final BCS rankings!
 
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mendensa said:
The difference between 94.59 and 92.49 might be 2.10 but it only means a few spots difference in the overall recruiting rankings, which still puts OSU in elite company each year with Bama, Clemson and UGA.
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Below is a comparison of HotMic's hypothetical class with a Clemson class comprising their current verbals and all of their crystal ball favorites:

PosClemson Recruit Name247 Stars247 Rating247 Crystal^PosOhio State Recruit Name247 Stars247 Rating247 Crystal
DTBryan Bresee5*.999089%^OLParis Johnson, Jr.5*.9980verbal
QBD.J. Uiagalelei5*.997681%^WRJulian Fleming5*.997823%
DEJordan Burch5*.9971100%^RBBijan Robinson5*.985833%
DEMyles Murphy5*.996671%^WRMarcus Rosemy4*.9818100%
LBAntoine Sampah5*.9839100%^DBClark Phillips III4*.98020%
DBFred Davis II4*.981387%^DLDarrion Henry4*.9777100%
DBR.J. Mickens4*.977157%^OLLuke Wypler4*.9729verbal
DLDemonte Capehart4*.9745verbal^QBJack Miller4*.9646verbal
LBPhillip Webb4*.9679100%^WRGee Scott, Jr.4*.9639verbal
OLMitchell Mayes4*.9649verbal^DBLathan Ransom4*.962133%
DLTré Williams4*.9562verbal^DBHenry Gray4*.960767%
OLPaul Tchio4*.9557verbal^OLMichael Carmody4*.94180%
WRE.J. Williams4*.9538100%^DBJaxon Smith-Njigba4*.9402verbal
DBKeshawn Lawrence4*.9525100%^OLMichael Drennen II4*.930780%
ATHJaylan Knighton4*.949562%^LBJordan Banks4*.92220%
DBLuke Hill4*.944850%^DLJaheimThomas4*.9085100%
DLTimothy Smith4*.941867%^DBLejond Cavazos4*.905794%
LBSergio Allen4*.9418verbal^ATHDeaMonte Trayanum4*.895588%
WRXzavier Henderson4*.936650%^TEMark Redman4*.89500%
OLBryn Tucker4*.9362verbal^OLReece Atteberry4*.8944100%
LBKevin Swint4*.9321verbal^LBKourt Williams II3*.88860%
OLWalker Parks4*.9073verbal^ATHCameron Martinez3*.88390%
OLJohn Williams4*.8942verbal^DLAaron Lewis3*.88240%
DBTyler Venables3*.8466100%^DLDeontae Craig3*.86880%
...............^TELuke Lachey3*.8577100%
...............^OLJakob James3*.8516verbal
...............^DLTerah Edwards3*.84660%
...............^OLTrey Leroux3*.8366verbal
A few items to note:

1. Clemson's 24-man hypothetical class has an overall rating of 321.41, while Ohio State's hypothetical 28-man class has an overall rating of 311.31. Not much difference there.

2. However, Clemson's class has an average recruit rating of 95.37, while Ohio State's is 92.49. That's nearly 3 points per recruit. That's huge.

3. The two classes are fairly close at the top. Clemson's top 11 recruits have an overall rating of 256.76 and a per recruit rating of 98.15, while Ohio State's top 11 recruits have an overall rating of 252.25 and a per recruit rating of 97.69. The 1/2-point difference per recruit is not insignificant, but a gap of that size can certainly be closed through coaching and development.

4. The bottom "half" of each class is where Clemson excels. Clemson's bottom 13 recruits have a total score of 235.19 with an average per recruit of 93.02, while Ohio State's bottom 17 recruits have an overall score of 224.75 with an average per recruit of 89.12. That 4-point gap per recruit really is impossible to overcome.

5. Clemson's class consists solely of verbals (9 currently) and recruits who are "leans" according to the 247 crystal balls (15 currently). Ohio State's class consists of verbals (7 currently), some "leans" (9 currently), and some leaning elsewhere (12 currently, including 9 who have no crystal balls for Ohio State). Granted, things can change quickly in recruiting, but right now Clemson's hypothetical class is much more likely than Ohio State's.

6. The crystal balls for Clemson's non-committed targets are, on average, 81.3% pro-Clemson, while the crystal balls for Ohio State's non-committed targets are, on average, 43.7% pro-Ohio State.

7. If we flip Julian Fleming from Ohio State (23% CB) to Clemson (Wiltfong CB), then Clemson's class increases to 325.87 overall and 95.55 per recruit, while Ohio State's class decreases to 299.86 overall and 92.22 per recruit.

8. Take out that 3-star Venables kid and Clemson's average per recruit goes up to 96.00, which obviously is insane. If Clemson can pull of a class anywhere near that good, then it will be in contention for best recruiting class ever.
 
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The April 4, 2019 version of the Bucknuts Morning 5, featuring an interview with Steve Wiltfong. A must-listen interview: LINK

1. Gee Scott, Jr. - "firmly put himself in the discussion as the nation's best receiver prospect ... if you put Gee Scott on the field for the Cleveland Browns, you wouldn't be able to tell who the high school kid is."

2. Bijan Robinson - "huge personality fit at Ohio State." ULCA and Ohio State lead.

3. Kendall Milton - Oklahoma leads, Ohio State running #2

4. Jaylan Knighton - #3 all-purpose back according to 247; from Deerfield Beach, Florida; Clemson lean, but visiting Ohio State for the Spring Game. My note: On April 3rd, there were eight crystal balls on Knighton, all for Clemson. On April 4th, Wiltfong revealed that Knighton would be visiting Ohio State. Later that day, three crystal balls switched from Clemson to cloudy. Probably just one of them coincidences....

5. Jordan Morant - safety from New Jersey. Formerly a Penn State lean, now a Michigan lean. Ohio State near the top of his list. His upcoming visits to Ohio State and Michigan will be very important.
 
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LJB, love the numbs.....looks to me that Clemson is kicking butt here. #/recruit is what tOSU has built it's rep on (ala Alabama and Clemson), in years past. And Clemson's numbs are better with four less recruits. Agree with your conclusion on the bottom part of the class making the difference. Maybe the expected value of recruit (% to school) x the # of stars would exacerbate the star value per class. Just another way to slice the data. Great job. And hope Day & Co continues to target the best at the position(s) of need, rather than grabbing a 5* for a 5*'s sake. Go Bucks!
 
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calibuck said:
LJB, love the numbs.....looks to me that Clemson is kicking butt here. #/recruit is what tOSU has built it's rep on (ala Alabama and Clemson), in years past. And Clemson's numbs are better with four less recruits. Agree with your conclusion on the bottom part of the class making the difference. Maybe the expected value of recruit (% to school) x the # of stars would exacerbate the star value per class. Just another way to slice the data. Great job. And hope Day & Co continues to target the best at the position(s) of need, rather than grabbing a 5* for a 5*'s sake. Go Bucks!
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Well, I think that we’d all like to have 5*s in position of need year in and year out. :wink:

I suspect that we all agree that, if we’re not lying to ourselves, we all expected this year to be a bit of a drop-off in recruiting. The things that Urban did with recruiting were never before seen in the program. That said, I’m highly encouraged by what we’ve seen from Day thus far. Should he continue with on field success, lack of Fulmer Cup points, and getting kids drafted in early rounds, recruiting may not tail off far from the highs that Urban produced. When it’s said and done, I’d expect Day — again, with results to back it up — to have classes closer to what we saw under Urban than what we saw with Tres.

Time will tell, right? But for now... I’m buying call options.
 
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doubledown on that Sparc. Methinks (as do many on this post) feel that the 5*s are waiting to see exactly how well the Buckeyes do this year. Especially those on the D side, which makes sense due to the wholesale replacement of the D coaches. Can visualize that the other powers are pushing them to commit, knowing that with the new coaching firepower (and the veteran returnees), the D will be stifling. Well, that's what my scarlet tinted glasses tell me......Urb left plenty in the pipeline, so tOSU will contend for at least the next two-three years regardless. Optomistic on how the 2020 class will finish out, but definitely like what is already 'in the barn'. Still plenty of time for these young people's minds to change, but Urb left a lasting legacy (Real Life Wednesday, etc) that only enhances tOSU's footprint in recruits minds. Now if the Business program could only achieve top 10 (MBA) status.....Go Bucks!
 
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