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Game Thread tOSU at USC, Sat. Oct. 31st, 7:30 pm ET, NBC

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It was interesting watching most of the NFL get super sloppy with their offense and ball security. Tampa Bay outdid the 2011 buckeyes and won without completing a pass. Now that was more extreme rain, but I couldn't help but notice a lot of teams playing very unlike themselves. Cinci-Tennessee comes to mind for that.


I would love for a competent AI or analyst to lay out just how diverse the possible scores were for this game. Because I think USC could have won by 35, and I think OSU could have won by 13.

A team that cannot run the ball dominated on the ground.
A team with a wide eyed true freshman never got behind the sticks except for penalties.
A team that got blown out was converting 3rd downs with ease.
A team that cannot protect the QB actually did not result in many sacks. Credit to Luke for that.

There were three picks erased.
USC had a clear strip six, and that fumble was very unusual for Bo.
The next snap, Mason Williams takes a nap to let Wafle destroy an easy first down.
The snap after that, the RG + RT false start to block Wafle, but it's not called because they snap before 4 was set.

Earl Little has been a first team all B1G type at safety, and McClain may have outpaced him.

The one weakness is coverage downfield. That was arguably not a problem at all.

Meanwhile they're very sound tacklers, except in this one where they kept getting gashed with terrible breakdowns, and then inexplicable missed tackles that turned 25 yard gains into 70 yds.


It was an exceptionally fluky game.
 
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jwinslow said:
It was interesting watching most of the NFL get super sloppy with their offense and ball security. Tampa Bay outdid the 2011 buckeyes and won without completing a pass. Now that was more extreme rain, but I couldn't help but notice a lot of teams playing very unlike themselves. Cinci-Tennessee comes to mind for that.


I would love for a competent AI or analyst to lay out just how diverse the possible scores were for this game. Because I think USC could have won by 35, and I think OSU could have won by 13.

A team that cannot run the ball dominated on the ground.
A team with a wide eyed true freshman never got behind the sticks except for penalties.
A team that got blown out was converting 3rd downs with ease.
A team that cannot protect the QB actually did not result in many sacks. Credit to Luke for that.

There were three picks erased.
USC had a clear strip six, and that fumble was very unusual for Bo.
The next snap, Mason Williams takes a nap to let Wafle destroy an easy first down.
The snap after that, the RG + RT false start to block Wafle, but do not get called

Earl Little has been a first team all B1G type at safety, and McClain may have outpaced him.

The one weakness is coverage downfield. That was arguably not a problem at all.

Meanwhile they're very sound tacklers, except in this one where they kept getting gashed with terrible breakdowns, and then inexplicable missed tackles that turned 25 yard gains into 70 yds.


It was an exceptionally fluky game.
Click to expand...

Here is my swing at the answer for you (Just USC and OSU):

1793636969189.png​


On a per-play basis:
  • Ohio State: +0.11 EPA/play
  • USC: +0.02 EPA/play
Ohio State was more efficient overall, but neither offense produced exceptional per-play efficiency.

Ohio State's positive offensive EPA came almost entirely from rushing (+10.04), while its passing game generated negative EPA (−1.44).****

** I will get back to this in a minute

Special teams EPA​

This is the biggest swing.

USC generated +12.18 EPA from special teams, versus +2.35 for Ohio State.

That's almost a 10-point advantage in expected scoring value from special teams alone.

It doesn't mean USC literally scored 12 special-teams points. It means special-teams plays improved USC's expected scoring position and outcomes by that cumulative amount.

Penalty EPA​

Ohio State lost 6.29 EPA through penalty-related plays, while USC gained 0.68.

That's another roughly 7-point swing in USC's favor.

One caution: these categories aren't perfectly additive because some plays belong to multiple categories. Game on Paper explicitly warns about this below the table.

So in a summary view, Ohio State had:
  • 81 offensive plays to USC's 49.
  • 8 scoring opportunities to USC's 6.
  • +8.60 offensive EPA versus USC's +0.76.
  • Yet USC won 30–18.
That's a game in which Ohio State's offense was better at moving the football**, but the combination of field position, special teams, penalties and poor scoring conversion overwhelmed that advantage.


**Here is the real thing I think we have seen two weeks in a row from IU and USC: The other team is willing to let the OSU run game do damage because it is confident that damage won't be greater than the damage the opposing defense does by degrading the passing attack.

Remember what I kept showing that 4 has masked the weaknesses of everyone else? Here it is.

The DC is saying you want to run it 40 times? Go ahead.
-You are a sloppy penalty team
-You will likely have a net field position disadvantage
-you likely won't break a long explosive run and
-you struggle to convert in the red zone.

I'll cheat to prevent 4 from beating us, if you can fix all that and beat us running the ball then I'll tip my cap to you but you aren't going to beat us with 4.

It's the age old defensive philosophy of making the opponent work down the field in a way they don't like to, betting that the offense will fuck up..

The twist is, that they are taking away the pass and making OSU beat them with the run and The Ohio State University football team cannot do it.

Woody is spinning in his grave.
 
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Jaxbuck said:
It's the age old defensive philosophy of making the opponent work down the field in a way they don't like to, betting that the offense will fuck up..

The twist is, that they are taking away the pass and making OSU beat them with the run and The Ohio State University football team cannot do it.

Woody is spinning in his grave.
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Three things can happen, and two of them are bad is not supposed to apply to the running game. Luke actually began to fix years of red zone rushing struggles in short yardage, and overall (before the redzone) Bo ran better than he has in a year, even against MAC teams. The blockers on the other hand, turned 1st and goal at the half yard line into highly volatile situations.
 
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jwinslow said:
Three things can happen, and two of them are bad is not supposed to apply to the running game. Luke actually began to fix years of red zone rushing struggles in short yardage, and overall (before the redzone) Bo ran better than he has in a year, even against MAC teams. The blockers on the other hand, turned 1st and goal at the half yard line into highly volatile situations.
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Yep.

It's hard to wrap your head around not being able to run the ball because you can't get out of your own way.
 
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jwinslow said:
Three things can happen, and two of them are bad is not supposed to apply to the running game. Luke actually began to fix years of red zone rushing struggles in short yardage, and overall (before the redzone) Bo ran better than he has in a year, even against MAC teams. The blockers on the other hand, turned 1st and goal at the half yard line into highly volatile situations.
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You live by the sword (3-TE sets), you die by the sword.
 
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John Walker, Bo Jackson and Jermaine Mathews Jr. Are Pro Football Focus’ Highest-Graded Ohio State Players Against USC​

165058_h_98146.jpg


All Hallows’ Eve and USC left the Buckeyes with more tricks than treats as Ohio State left L.A. Memorial Coliseum with a 30-18 loss.

Sloppy offense and a couple of major defensive gaffes contributed to L.A.'s house of horrors. John Walker was the only Buckeye to grade above 80, while Bo Jackson's hard-running and Jermaine Mathews Jr.'s coverage propelled both players to the top of Ohio State's PFF rankings.
You likely have your thoughts on how Ohio State's players performed in the upset loss. Another set of opinions comes from Pro Football Focus, which grades every player after every game based on their snap-to-snap performance.
PFF's Grading Scale

ELITE GOOD ABOVE AVG. AVG. BELOW AVG. POOR VERY POOR
90-100 80-89 70-79 60-69 50-59 40-49 Below 40
We compiled the PFF grades for every Buckeye who played offense or defense against USC and highlighted the three highest-graded players with at least 10 snaps against the Trojans.

Position Bests (10+ Snaps)
QB RB WR TE OL DE DT LB CB S
Luke Fahey Bo Jackson Jeremiah Smith Mason Williams Phillip Daniels Kenyatta Jackson Jr. John Walker Payton Pierce Jermaine Mathews Jr. Earl Little Jr.
64.0 75.2 72.9 74.5 73.1 62.1 81.7 67.8 74.7 62.9

The Top Three​

1. DT John Walker (81.7)​

For the first time this season, PFF graded an Ohio State defensive lineman as the team's best player. Along with his overall grade of 81.7, Walker also earned the team’s highest grades in run defense (74.0) and pass rushing (77.7). This is Walker’s second time making the Top Three, as he was ranked second against Maryland.

2. RB Bo Jackson (75.2)​

Jackson earned his highest grades of the season in overall play (75.2), rushing (77.8) and pass blocking (82.5). Jackson appears to have spent the bye week working on his pass-blocking, as he graded out with a 24.3 against Indiana. His 82.5 grade against USC was a team high. In fact, Jackson’s grades in the three categories above were the highest among Buckeye offensive players, with his rushing and pass-blocking grades leading the Big Ten at his position.

3. CB Jermaine Mathews Jr. (74.7)​

Mathews Jr. had a team-high coverage grade of 81.3. That’s the good news; the bad is he also had an abysmal tackling grade of 28.4. This is the first time in his career Mathews has made the Top Three.
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Extra Points​

  • Christian Alliegro led the team in tackling (80.1).
  • With a run-blocking grade of 75.5, Phillip Daniels graded out the best on the team. Carson Hinzman (69.9), Jake Cook (69.5) and Austin Siereveld (65.3) also performed well in run blocking against the Trojans.
  • Kyle Parker (36.0) had the lowest grade among the Buckeyes, but the receiver only played two snaps, so he didn't reach the minimum of 10 snaps to qualify. Therefore, Jaylen McClain, who was on the field for 51 snaps, the most among all defenders, earned the lowest grade (39.5) of any Buckeye to play at least 10 snaps against USC. Austin Siereveld returned to the field, but he may not have been completely healthy, as he graded out with a 48.8, the lowest grade of any Ohio State offensive lineman.
  • Mason Williams' receiving grade of 90.8 and Jeremiah Smith's drop grade of 80.9 against USC led the Big Ten. Smith ranks third in the nation among receivers in receiving (93.1) and overall offense (93.0).
  • Four Buckeyes received grades under 30 for tackling: Dominick Kelly (21.7), Will Smith Jr. (23.1), Zion Grady (24.9) and Jermaine Mathews Jr. (28.4).
 
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jarv said:
This entire game plan was bullshit.

If you want your true freshman QB to be successful, he needs to be confident and in rhythm. He can't be either when you're running it two times for every pass attempt, despite trailing the entire game.

And that's BEFORE Day gave up at half time. And don't tell me they didn't. You don't come out at the half down 11 and run three times in a row.

This team under Day has showed killer instinct for exactly four game: Tennessee, Oregon, Texas and Notre Dame. And it's because Chip Kelly, who Day respects and doesn't have the balls to tell what to do, was the one calling shots on offense.

Outside of those four games, this team plays either scared or like they're smarter than everyone else. Such as getting cute and not running it 3 times in a row when you have first and goal.

It's like he's more concerned with trying to be seen as a brilliant offensive mind and QB developer than he is about winning championships.
Click to expand...
I think he's scared to death of losing, which unironically makes him more apt to lose these games.
 
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lvbuckeye said:
I think he's scared to death of losing, which unironically makes him more apt to lose these games.
Click to expand...

This is pure speculation and conjecture so probably not worth anything but...

I wonder about those Michigan games when they were actively cheating, and whether or not that had some kind of psychological effect on his general mindset/approach. If the opponent was calling the perfect defense over, and over, and over again, stifling your typically explosive offense, I can see how that might fuck with somebodys psyche (especially considering the context and importance of those games specifically).

I'm talking out of my ass but just a thought I've had before.
 
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RhodeIslandBuck said:
This is pure speculation and conjecture so probably not worth anything but...

I wonder about those Michigan games when they were actively cheating, and whether or not that had some kind of psychological effect on his general mindset/approach. If the opponent was calling the perfect defense over, and over, and over again, stifling your typically explosive offense, I can see how that might fuck with somebodys psyche (especially considering the context and importance of those games specifically).

I'm talking out of my ass but just a thought I've had before.
Click to expand...
yeah but then when it was revealed they were cheating, it should cure it
 
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BuckeyeNation27 said:
yeah but then when it was revealed they were cheating, it should cure it
Click to expand...

I do generally agree, although I've never been in a position with that level of pressure, so I can't say for sure. Like I said, just riffing, I wouldn't pretend to understand myself psychologically, let alone a stranger with that level of performance expectations.

All I know is this, we're gonna need evil ryan day for the remainder of the season if we as fans are gonna have a prayer.
 
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