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Game Thread tOSU at USC, Sat. Oct. 31st, 7:30 pm ET, NBC

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BuckeyeNation27 said:
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Hey, I just got back after having been away for awhile. Give me a minute to adjust to BP levels of courtesy
 
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DaddyBigBucks said:
If we disagree at all, it is only in how much we can draw from that Wisconsin game. In saying that you “expect them to get more than 7”, you make it clear that you are reasonable enough to acknowledge that game as an aberration. The question then is, was it a small aberration that is the first evidence of the wheels coming off of the Trojan season, or was it one of those aberrations that should be discarded entirely as having no predictive power for the future.

I would love to believe that this is the start of a trend. The problem is, I have no reason to believe that. To me, the most telling thing here is the sheer size of the aberration. For the Trojans, especially Miller, Raymond, Noa, and Maiava, this was an Iowa2017/Purdue2018 level no-show. I’m sure that those games made Ohio State’s next opponents feel better about their chances, but they didn’t mean a thing.

No one would be happier than me to see the Buckeyes hold USC to 17 or less tonight. I just don’t see a reason to expect it if Timmons can’t go.



Edit: I’ve been away longer than I realized and had forgotten the level of thick skin that is expected here on BP. I bent over backwards to be polite here, when this entire wall of text could be boiled down to what BN27 said directly or what Jax said sarcastically.
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USC hasn’t been a dominant offense this year. They’re 39th in total offense and this despite playing not the best competition. Best defense they played was Wisconsin (12), Penn State (28), and Oregon (39). Two of those games resulted in losses.

OSU offense for example is 10th. This having played 3 defenses in the top 15 (Indiana, Texas and Iowa).

I expect them to get more than 7 because I still think their QB is good and Riley is respectable enough. That said OSU has given up more than 20 five times in 3 years (Texas 26’, Miami 25’, ND 24’, Oregon 24’, Oregon 24’). What’s crazy is only 3 of those 6 are legit. Texas this year, ND, and the first time we played Oregon in 24’.

You combine USC struggling vs the better defenses and having true freshman at their skill position… I don’t think that’s a good recipe for them. Not to mention they’re down their starting center (hurt during camp) and their guard is out this week too. All the makings are there for this OSU defense to eat.

Would anyone here take the USC true freshman WRs over ours? Me either. Yet that’s who they’re rolling out vs Sanchez and Matthews.

OSU 27 USC 17
 
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We give up 13 per game and only due to a failed 4th quarter did we give up 21 @Texas. We'll give upp some drives but not the points. Even without Timmons, which sucks, we'll hold them to 17-20 , max. Does everybody really think this Offense won't score 24 points tonight, against that shit Defense?

Come on folks, we are going to have a quarter maybe 2 of rough idling then we'll be Ohio State again and everyone poo pooing the QB situation everywhere right now will go, "should have figured."
 
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BuckeyeNation27 said:
Week after week dumb people say shit like this. What they did against Wisconsin has almost nothing to do with how they will play tonight. If "logic" like this was worth a damn, we would have never lost to Iowa or Purdue with Urban.
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I wouldn't call it "dumb" but I get where you're going by saying it isn't a complete transitive property.

Urban's teams lost those games for a number of reasons. I'll use the Purdue game as an example - the defense had fundamental flaws that the Purdue offense was able to capitalize on disproportionate to other offenses.

USC has young personnel at WR. As talented as modern freshman can be, tbat may be a shortcoming USC didn't see exposed until going on the road and playing a quality defense.

Do I expect a talented SC offense to put one score, at home, after getting their ass kicked on the road? No. But those same personnel shortcomings can be presented and exploitable, depending on the degree the defense is able to maximize said exploitation with a personnel & philosophy (scheme) overlap.

Where SC did struggle was in the trenches and line play tends to be what it is when the issue is talent, not so much lapses in execution or failing of assignment.

Football is the great duality. What you get week to week can have such great variance, provided you run into teams that lack the ability to punish your shortcomings. If not? Themes will be everpresent week to week, regardless of opponent.
 
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buckeyes_rock said:
This has first game of the season vibes. Excited to see what this offense looks like under a new QB, but nervous as crap. LOL!
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This is win/win today.

If he’s awesome then the freight train keeps rolling down the tracks. If he’s not then the odds the season is going to turn out well (championship game, playoffs) probably aren’t great. So then really we can enjoy the remaining 6 games or so with no expectations.

The way I see it is we were not winning it all with Julian unless he upped his game enormously. With the trend I saw I wasn’t optimistic he’d turn it around. So from my view we went from “we aren’t winning this” to “who knows”.

I’m intrigued by simplifying the passing game, running the QB, and having more horizontal game. Let’s see how this goes. I’m exited.
 
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Bestbuck36 said:
We give up 13 per game and only due to a failed 4th quarter did we give up 21 @Texas. We'll give upp some drives but not the points. Even without Timmons, which sucks, we'll hold them to 17-20 , max. Does everybody really think this Offense won't score 24 points tonight, against that shit Defense?

Come on folks, we are going to have a quarter maybe 2 of rough idling then we'll be Ohio State again and everyone poo pooing the QB situation everywhere right now will go, "should have figured."
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That’s where I don’t know. Maybe we lose. I have no clue what to expect from Luke at QB. We could absolutely lose because the offense is 2023 Missouri levels bad. Who knows.
 
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I expect Fahey to look decent actually and I’ll keep saying it; the bar he has to clear is rattled Julian Sayin, not clean pocket Sayin.

Also as far as the year goes, the most certain path to the playoffs is to win the B1G. Even if we lose to USC it’s just the 1st conference loss. We still control our own destiny for one of the top 2 spots with Oregon, NW, Nebby and tsun left.

How we may do in those playoffs is anyone’s guess. Need to see how the new QB looks.
 
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Captain Buckeye said:
This is win/win today.

If he’s awesome then the freight train keeps rolling down the tracks. If he’s not then the odds the season is going to turn out well (championship game, playoffs) probably aren’t great. So then really we can enjoy the remaining 6 games or so with no expectations.

The way I see it is we were not winning it all with Julian unless he upped his game enormously. With the trend I saw I wasn’t optimistic he’d turn it around. So from my view we went from “we aren’t winning this” to “who knows”.

I’m intrigued by simplifying the passing game, running the QB, and having more horizontal game. Let’s see how this goes. I’m exited.
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The fringe will never watch the remaining games with no expectations. We want 100-0 even with no shot at the title. :lol:
 
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Jaxbuck said:
I expect Fahey to look decent actually and I’ll keep saying it; the bar he has to clear is rattled Julian Sayin, not clean pocket Sayin.

Also as far as the year goes, the most certain path to the playoffs is to win the B1G. Even if we lose to USC it’s just the 1st conference loss. We still control our own destiny for one of the top 2 spots with Oregon, NW, Nebby and tsun left.

How we may do in those playoffs is anyone’s guess. Need to see how the new QB looks.
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That’s exactly how I see it.

What Luke has to truly chase is sub 50% completion. I think he can do that and I’d be sort of surprised if he’s not 60% or so which IMO is good enough.

Also, I’d prefer to put off that second loss as long as possible lol. This USC defense is not very good so if it goes terribly today it’s not getting easier.
 
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Captain Buckeye said:
That’s exactly how I see it.

What Luke has to truly chase is sub 50% completion. I think he can do that and I’d be sort of surprised if he’s not 60% or so which IMO is good enough.

Also, I’d prefer to put off that second loss as long as possible lol. This USC defense is not very good so if it goes terribly today it’s not getting easier.
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He has to avoid taking those back (or elbow) breaking sacks and being 50/50 on TD or turnover when they get after him. The completion percentage doesn’t tell enough of the story.

Even if he looks awful tonight it’s not enough to go on. It’s his first game. He won’t be the same guy even a week later.

Everything is still in reach no matter what happens tonight.
 
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What concerns me about this game is the match-up.

The USC rushing defense is much better than you think. Their Differential Rushing Defense is 77.7%. On a yards per carry basis it is 85.3%. The Silver Bullet's numbers are better, but most people think of the USC defense as terrible, full-stop. It isn't. It is the pass defense that is straight, un-wiped ass. Their rushing defense is actually decent, and the Buckeyes have a true freshman qb who has never attempted a pass against P4 competition outside of practice. AND Coach Day has said that he is going to lean heavily on the running backs. This MIGHT play into USC's hands.

On the other hand... This USC pass defense, following a bye week, is exactly what I would ask for if told that we had to have a freshman qb make his first start this year. And Coach Day has a pretty good record of producing high-levels of quarterback play from young quarterbacks.

As I've posted elsewhere though... and that USC rushing defense not withstanding, the Ohio State rushing offense is quite a bit better than most people think. I'm not claiming anyone will mistake them for '95 Nebraska, but it would not surprise me if the Buckeyes rush for 175 or more this evening, which would be the most the Trojans have given up all season.
 
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