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Game Thread THE GAME, 11/26/16, 12pm ET, ABC

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Michigan Monday: Slow Down With the Michigan Hype

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I have a feeling that I am going to contradict myself a little bit here, but I’m just not buying into the hype that the Michigan Wolverines are national title contenders in 2016.

Every week there are new preseason rankings being put out by various media outlets, and all of them seem to have Michigan in or very near the top five. I get that and I understand that. It’s part ofThe Harbaugh Effect. I don’t think it’s deserved or undeserved, it’s just fluffery.

But then the radio told me this morning that Michigan is receiving more national title betting action in the Vegas sportsbooks than any other school. On one hand I am shocked by this, yet on the other hand I get the need by Michigan fans to feel like this is a real and tangible possibility.

After all, the Wolverines won 10 games last year, and they should have won 12. That was in Jim Harbaugh’s first crack at things, so I can see why people are excited about the possibilities of Year Two.

The problem, however, is that the things that kept them from winning the national title a year ago are still the same problems they are going to have in 2016.

Can they run the ball and can they stop the run against a skilled team that loves to run the ball?

A year ago Michigan averaged over 5 yards per carry in a game against a P5 opponent just once – and that was 5.04 yards against the Indiana Hoosiers, who allowed 5.23 yards per carry to everyone else last season.

Oh, and the bowl game against Florida which folks like to point to as a positive sign for the running game? They averaged 4.89 yards per carry in that game. Over a season that would’ve ranked 33rd in the nation a year ago. It’s fine, but not, ‘Hey, wow, look at this!’

The offensive line is better and 5-star running back Kareem Walker will help, but can they take that 4.2 yards per carry average from last year and add at least another yard to it?

Of the last eight national champions, five of them averaged over 5.5 yards per carry. The three who didn’t? Alabama in 2015, 2011 and 2009.

So either you better average over 5.5 yards per carry to win a title, or you better be Alabama, and I’m not sure which is more likely to happen for Michigan.

Then there is the defensive side of the ball. The Wolverines finished No. 16 in the nation in run defense last year, allowing just 122.23 yards rushing per game.

Against teams ranked in the top 30 in rushing, however, they allowed 338 yards per game on the ground. Sure, that was just two opponents – Indiana and Ohio State, but they also happened to be the two teams on Michigan’s schedule that could actually run the ball.

Entire article: http://theozone.net/Ohio-State/Football/2016/News/Michigan-Monday-Slow-Down-With-the-Michigan-Hype
 
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