FYI-
For anyone interested, I've been able to locate Elan Fuld's complete research paper here:
http://www.soapboxincyberspace.com/clutch.htm
You can download the .pdf file using the link at the bottom of the page.
Just in case you're flip-flopping on whether or not to read the entire 53-page paper as I did, I'll give you the information you'll need to decide:
If you feel that either Errors and/or Sac Flies should be treated as Walks in the OPS formula, you'll find some folks in the tables at the end who Fuld feels are "clutch" hitters.
If you feel that both Errors and Sac Flies should be treated as Out events, you will learn nothing at all because Fuld doesn't give us results that treat both events as such.
During the study, Fuld does a number of regressions based on the data he's accumulated, but never attempts to count Sac Flies as an OPS result of "0". That means he either excludes them from his study (also excluding the Outs they represent) or that he counts them as a "1" (treating them as a Walk).
Basically, Fuld is saying that if we're willing to believe that Sac Flies are non-random hitter-driven events- without needing evidence that they actually are- and, because of that, significantly different than regular fly-outs, he can demonstrate that there are a few hitters that we might be able to consider "clutch" with varying degrees of certainty.
Now, I would encourage everyone interested to read the whole study, but I have a little difficulty when the results of such a study hinge on a non-listed assumption (at least I didn't see it listed as an assumption) requiring a huge leap of faith that is in opposition to the primary method of player performance measurement (the OPS formula itself).
Now, the author does exclude all IBB events from the study. But, personally, I have a difficult time buying the concept that Errors should be treated as hitter achievement while, at the same time, telling folks that Barry Bonds doesn't create a lot of his own IBB events just by walking to the plate.
Kudos to Fuld for the amount of work it obviously took him though because I do think that some of his methodology can help further the study of things like "clutch" hitting.
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