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The BCS isn't the problem, it's Pre Season Polls

Steve19;1347368; said:
Well, because if you look at the Sagarin predictor, Iowa is #11 and Mississippi is #13, eh, uh, because Iowa's Sagarin SOS is #53 and Mississippi is #40.

Uh, I guess there isn't much in it when I look at all the computer ratings. Uh, why is that?

This is a good example of what I'm trying to get at. It's assumed Florida would whoop up on PSU, and I think they probably would as well. So Penn State needed an undefeated regular season, while UF got the luxury of being able to lose a game.

But the assumption could be totally off base. OSU never had a shot against Miami, Texas didn't have a shot against USC, Florida didn't have a shot against tOSU, etc....

Let them play it out.
 
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Steve19;1347368; said:
Well, because if you look at the Sagarin predictor, Iowa is #11 and Mississippi is #13, eh, uh, because Iowa's Sagarin SOS is #53 and Mississippi is #40.

Uh, I guess there isn't much in it when I look at all the computer ratings. Uh, why is that?

The Sagarin ratings should be ignored. I think they had USC as the best team in 2002.

USATODAY.com
 
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Maybe this has already been stated and I missed it skimming through the thread: A championship team does not necessarily mean it is the 'best' team... all a championship means is that a team won the outlined parameters to be called a champion whether it be by subjective voting, a tournament/playoff or a combination of both. The 'best' team will always be a subjective opinion though at times that opinion will be shared by a vast majority of people.
 
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Gatorubet;1347353; said:
They'll have beaten the undisputed number one team in America to win their Conference title on the last day of the regular season. It is universally recognized that it is better to lose early than lose later in the season, and better to win big late over a quality opponent than to do so early, both situations that favor Florida over Penn State. Whether that recency and primacy bias is valid is a separate discussion.

Also, see one of the roughly four thousand BP posts about the existence of anti-Big 10 bias after several years of conference big game disappointments.

I'm thinking that universe doesn't include most of the computer rankings, me, or bkb. :wink2:
 
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My thoughts:
I like the BCS. It's different than playoffs in a great way- the regular season matter. We don't start our 2nd stringers in The Game, because every single year of the rivalry, it has been important. There hasn't been a single case where, win or lose, we would still go to the playoff, because there is no playoff.

No other sport has the 1st game of the season be as important as it is in CFB, where TSUN was eliminated from the championship race because they lost to appy fucking state.

That's something great about CFB.
However, there are, no doubt, serious problems with the BCS. Most of this, I think, has to do with the voters.

Coaches poll. NEEDS TO BE ELIMINATED. They never get a chance to watch close to the amount of games that they would need to to fill out a valid ballot. Eliminate this.

Harris Poll. Make it harder to be a voter. Some people (i.e. the guy who thought PSU was undefeated) are obviously jokes.


People don't know HOW to vote. The specifications are not clear at ALL. Should they vote for the team they think is the best? Should they vote for who they think would win a hypothetical? Let's take Tex-Oklahoma. Should they punish Texas and reward Oklahoma because Cinci & TCU were good (lucky on Oklahoma's part) and Arkansas sucked (sort of unlucky on Texas' part). At the moment, decisions such as this are up to the voter's discretion. These should be OUTLINED. For example, "under no circumstances should voters reward a team for a schedule that was designed to be difficult but ended up being poor. This is simply bad luck on that team's part, and they SHOULD NOT BE REWARDED". Or the opposite of that statement. At the moment, I don't particularly care what the stance is- there just SHOULD BE a stance.

Another example that someone earlier gave- What's worse, USC sleepwalking against Stanford, or USC trying their best and losing to Oregon? It's a valid point. My opinion is that losing to Stanford is way worse. But voters should be TOLD how they should deal with a situation like this. In my mind, it should be, "DON'T FORGIVE A TEAM FOR SLEEPWALKING. WE EVALUATE RESULTS, NOT POTENTIAL". In other words, voters shouldn't give a SHIT whether USC is clearly the best team in the country when they're on their game. They should care whether they have EARNED the right to be in the top 2 by playing a hard schedule and going undefeated through it. Their defense might be a pro defense this year, but THEY SHOULD NOT HAVE LOST TO oOSU. At the moment, voters are awarding teams for being hot at the end of the year, while some are not. I do think that they should not be awarded, but more importantly, there should be consistency.

Timing of a loss should NOT matter. This sort of goes along with my previous point, but I am fully convinced that voters should be aware that timing of a loss should not mean anything at all.

Other things should be explained... For example, injuries. Let's say we had kept it really close with USC without beanie. Maybe 27-24. I can guarantee there would have been questions on how much we should be punished for losing even though we didn't have our best player. I don't know how I would answer this, but the voters should be instructed on how to vote. "Extenuating circumstances, such as injures, questionable officiating, etc, should not cause you to say a team that "lost" really "won"". That type of thing.


In general, I think more clear instructions would solve a LOT of problems. At the moment, half the complainers are saying "well it's completely unfair that USC doesn't get a shot just because they lost to oOSU, USC is clearly the best team in the country". If these things were clarified, it would be obvious: USC may VERY WELL be the best team in the country, that is 100% true. But we DO NOT CARE. You should not have lost to Oregon State.
 
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bkochmc;1347482; said:
Maybe this has already been stated and I missed it skimming through the thread: A championship team does not necessarily mean it is the 'best' team... all a championship means is that a team won the outlined parameters to be called a champion whether it be by subjective voting, a tournament/playoff or a combination of both. The 'best' team will always be a subjective opinion though at times that opinion will be shared by a vast majority of people.

Well put. I guess we have been trying to figure out how to make it less subjective than before.
 
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In order to see which teams that 4-team, 6-team, 8-team, 12-team, and 16-team playoff formats would have selected, here are the final BCS standings for each year (note that the BCS formula has changed a few times):

BCS Conference Champion or non-BCS Automatic Bid (*)

1998
01. Tennessee..........(*)..12-0
02. Florida St.........(*)..11-1
03. Kansas St...............11-1
04. Ohio State..............10-1
05. UCLA...............(*)..10-1
06. Texas A&M..........(*)..11-2
07. Arizona.................11-1
08. Florida..................9-2
09. Wisconsin..........(*)..10-1
10. Tulane..................11-0
11. Nebraska.................9-3
12. Virginia.................9-2
13. Arkansas.................9-2
14. Georgia Tech.............9-2
15. Syracuse...........(*)...8-3
16. ?? (11-1 Air Force, 9-2 ND, or 9-3 Michigan)

1999
01. Florida St.........(*)..11-0
02. Virginia Tech......(*) .11-0
03. Nebraska...........(*)..11-1
04. Alabama............(*)..10-2
05. Tennessee................9-2
06. Kansas State............10-1
07. Wisconsin..........(*)...9-2
08. Michigan.................9-2
09. Michigan St..............9-2
10. Florida..................9-3
11. Penn State...............9-3
12. Marshall................12-0
13. Minnesota................8-3
14. Texas A&M................8-3
15. Texas....................9-4
16. ?? (9-2 Miss St, 8-3 S. Miss, or 8-3 GTech)
??. Stanford...........(*)...8-3

2000
01. Oklahoma...........(*)..12-0
02. Florida State......(*) .11-1
03. Miami..............(*)..10-1
04. Washington.........(*)..10-1
05. Virginia Tech...........10-1
06. Oregon State............10-1
07. Florida............(*)..10-2
08. Nebraska.................9-2
09. Kansas State............10-3
10. Oregon...................9-2
11. Notre Dame...............9-2
12. Texas....................9-2
13. Georgia Tech.............9-2
14. TCU.....................10-1
15. Clemson..................9-2
16. Michigan.................8-3
??. Purdue.............(*)...8-3

2001
01. Miami..............(*)..11-0
02. Nebraska................11-1
03. Colorado...........(*)..10-2
04. Oregon.............(*)..10-1
05. Florida..................9-2
06. Tennessee...............10-2
07. Texas...................10-2
08. Illinois...........(*)..10-1
09. Stanford.................9-2
10. Maryland...........(*)..10-1
11. Oklahoma................10-2
12. Washington State.........9-2
13. LSU................(*)...9-3
14. South Carolina...........8-3
15. Washington...............8-3
16. ?? (8-3 Michigan, 8-3 GTech, or 8-3 VaTech)

2002
01. Miami..............(*)..12-0
02. Ohio State.........(*) .13-0
03. Georgia............(*)..12-1
04. USC.....................10-2
05. Iowa....................11-1
06. Washington State...(*)..10-2
07. Oklahoma...........(*)..11-2
08. Kansas State............10-2
09. Notre Dame..............10-2
10. Texas...................10-2
11. Michigan.................9-3
12. Penn State...............9-3
13. Colorado.................9-4
14. Florida State......(*)...9-4
15. West Virginia............9-3
16. ?? (10-3 Alabama)

2003
01. Oklahoma................12-1
02. LSU................(*) .12-1
03. USC................(*)..12-1
04. Michigan...........(*)..10-2
05. Ohio State..............10-2
06. Texas...................10-2
07. Florida State......(*)..10-2
08. Tennessee...............10-2
09. Miami..............(*)..10-2
10. Kansas State.......(*)..11-3
11. Miami (OH)..............11-1
12. Georgia.................10-3
13. Iowa.....................9-3
14. Purdue...................9-3
15. Florida..................8-4
16. Washington State.........9-3
17. Boise State.............12-1
18. TCU.....................11-1

2004
01. USC................(*)..12-0
02. Oklahoma...........(*) .12-0
03. Auburn.............(*)..12-0
04. Texas...................10-1
05. Cal.....................10-1
06. Utah...............(*)..11-0
07. Georgia..................9-2
08. Virginia Tech......(*)..10-2
09. Boise State.............11-0
10. Louisville..............10-1
11. LSU......................9-2
12. Iowa.....................9-2
13. Michigan...........(*)...9-2
14. Miami....................8-3
15. Tennessee................9-3
16. Florida State............8-3
17. Wisconsin................9-2
18. Virginia.................8-3
19. Pitt...............(*)...8-3

2005
01. USC................(*)..12-0
02. Texas..............(*) .12-0
03. Penn State.........(*)..10-1
04. Ohio State...............9-2
05. Oregon..................10-1
06. Notre Dame.........(*)...9-2
07. Georgia............(*)..10-2
08. Miami....................9-2
09. Auburn...................9-2
10. Virginia Tech...........10-2
11. West Virginia......(*)..10-1
12. LSU.....................10-2
13. Alabama..................9-2
14. TCU.....................10-1
15. Texas Tech...............9-2
16. UCLA.....................9-2
17. Florida..................8-3
18. Wisconsin................9-3
22. Florida State......(*)...8-4

2006
01. Ohio State.........(*)..12-0
02. Florida............(*) .12-1
03. Michigan................11-1
04. LSU.....................10-2
05. USC................(*)..10-2
06. Louisville.........(*)..11-1
07. Wisconsin...............11-1
08. Boise St...........(*)..12-0
09. Auburn..................10-2
10. Oklahoma...........(*)..11-2
11. Notre Dame..............10-2
12. Arkansas................10-3
13. West Virginia...........10-2
14. Wake Forest........(*)..11-2
15. Virginia Tech...........10-2
16. Rutgers.................10-2
17. Tenneseee................9-3
18. Cal......................9-3

2007
01. Ohio State.........(*)..11-1
02. LSU................(*) .11-2
03. Virgina Tech.......(*)..11-2
04. Oklahoma...........(*)..11-2
05. Georgia.................10-2
06. Missouri................11-2
07. USC................(*)..10-2
08. Kansas..................11-1
09. West Virginia......(*)..10-2
10. Hawaii.............(*)..12-0
11. Arizona State...........10-2
12. Florida..................9-3
13. Illinois.................9-3
14. Boston College..........10-3
15. Clemson..................9-3
16. Tennessee................9-4
17. BYU.....................10-2
18. Wisconsin................9-3
 
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