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Sugar Bowl: #3 Ohio State 49, #2 Clemson 28, Jan 1 in New Orleans

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Abenaki said:
Maybe we're arguing over semantics a little bit here. We have enough weapons on offense to take what they're going to give us and be successful with it, as long as we're not stubborn about sticking to the game plan if it's not working. Sustained success on offense is our best defense this week.
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I mean, if Venables comes out with his Buford T Justice hat and says, "them buckeye floozies ain't gonna start poontangin around and run for 400 yards like they did with them big city nerds" and puts 9 guys in the box, then by all means, fling it around the park.

(and before you tell me Venables isn't from the south, I don't really care)
 
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Jaxbuck said:
The short answer is, fuck no. Tresselball cannot be effective in todays game because it's basic philosophy, play field position with a rested defense and the opponent will make a mistake, is flawed. Kids come out of HS now with so much exposure to advanced offensive schemes, drills and high level game experience that by the time they hit campus they are ready to execute. This feeds the offenses in general which will simply execute down the field on you if left to do so. They are too good. We are in an era of good offense will beat good defense head to head.

I think the way you have to look at it is similar to the way people finally understood the real cause of offense in baseball. In baseball the constraint is 27 outs. You give them away at your peril. In football the constraint is number of possessions. Likewise, to give them away as a general rule is the definition of sub optimal strategy.

The 13 year average for CFB is 23.7 non garbage time possessions per game. IMO, You can win by doing the following, in order of approximate probability of success:
  1. scoring efficiency/per possession
  2. getting extra possessions through turnovers (with continued scoring efficiency)
  3. reducing opponents scoring efficiency through defense
  4. reducing opponents total possessions through TOP
The obvious flaw with #4 is that you are reducing your own number of possessions so it's like bunting in baseball, it only makes sense in very specific late game situations because overall you are going against the fundamental laws of offensive production for your game. Does it make sense to bunt in the bottom of the 9th? sometimes. Does it work to run the ball and run the clock out with a lead late in a football game? Obviously, but you can't play that way all along anymore (Tresselball).


So parse the math anyway you want to, @DaddyBigBucks, but when facing an elite offense like Clemson I think the number is 40+. You have, say, 12 possessions to score 6-7 TD's, take away the ball and gain extra possessions or limit their scoring efficiency with your own defense. Good fucking luck with option #3, #2 is a crapshoot so your offense better bring it's big boy pants and be as effective as possible with the ~12 possessions you know you are going to get.
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Not only the recruits arriving to campus more ready, the modern RPO concepts produce a lot of chunk plays if you have the players to execute them (which of course, Clemson (and tOSU) has in spades, that's why they win). I've been watching a lot of College Football Nerds over the past couple of years and what they say makes a lot of sense. Until someone comes up with a way to reliably stop a well executed RPO, scoring efficiency is a BIG number 1 on that last, with the rest being far distant.

Of course, if you can get those chunk plays with the run game, like we did vs. nerd, so much the better. Do what works.

Finally, I like watching Wisconsin. They are my 2nd favorite B1G program. Partially because it's like watching Tressel era Buckeyes. A lot of in-state talent, a lot of 3 stars being coached up. Run the boll, TOP game, reduce possessions, etc. Let's see how that works against Wake with similar talent. So far, not good.
 
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Abenaki said:
Doesn't matter, that's how he talks now.

And I definitely agree with you here.
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ShowMeBuck said:
why can’t you still control the game from a TOP perspective and limit the amount of time available for your opponent to beat you?
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TOP in your favor is going to drive down total possessions so unless you increase the points per possession rate to compensate for it, you are hurting your overall scoring chances.

In a perfect world you have six, 8 minute scoring drives all ending in 7 points leaving yourself with 42 points and your opponent with ~12 minutes to match your output. (by rule they are going to get 6 possessions that will take ~2 minutes each even for a 3 and out)

Short of that you need to be mindful of both the absolute value (total possessions) and the rate (points per possession) so that you aren't unintentionally working against the fundamental essence/constraints of the game.
 
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