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Sparty at tOSU, Nov 20th, 12 pm ET, ABC

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5 STAR U-G-A said:
Mel Tucker is a great young coach who has done a great job building up this Michigan State program, but he can't out-coach recruiting. Barring turnovers/weird big plays, Ohio State covers the spread easily.
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Here is an under the radar thing to watch: We all know the first two games were a shit show for the defense but even after the change in playcaller some teams have had healthy yards per carry numbers from their running backs. I think this gets lost in the team numbers because of QB sacks and because teams are down so far they have to abandon the run but here is what I found.

I took the box score and anyone who had more than 1 carry and wasn't a QB I called them the "RB".
Tulsa: 24/97 4.04 ypc
Rutgers: 23/105 4.57 ypc
Maryland: 18/112 6.22 ypc
Purdue: 18/84 4.67 ypc

Now they did shut down some teams like IU and Penn State but they can't run at all.

If there is weakness there, it's going to get exposed as long as Sparty (and tsun) are in a close enough game to keep running the ball.

Walker III is the best back they've seen since Ibrahim in week 1 but some teams have managed to contain him. It will be interesting to see how it plays out but if it ends up a lot closer than we want, keep this in mind.
 
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Jaxbuck said:
Here is an under the radar thing to watch: We all know the first two games were a shit show for the defense but even after the change in playcaller some teams have had healthy yards per carry numbers from their running backs. I think this gets lost in the team numbers because of QB sacks and because teams are down so far they have to abandon the run but here is what I found.

I took the box score and anyone who had more than 1 carry and wasn't a QB I called them the "RB".
Tulsa: 24/97 4.04 ypc
Rutgers: 23/105 4.57 ypc
Maryland: 18/112 6.22 ypc
Purdue: 18/84 4.67 ypc

Now they did shut down some teams like IU and Penn State but they can't run at all.

If there is weakness there, it's going to get exposed as long as Sparty (and tsun) are in a close enough game to keep running the ball.

Walker III is the best back they've seen since Ibrahim in week 1 but some teams have managed to contain him. It will be interesting to see how it plays out but if it ends up a lot closer than we want, keep this in mind.
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Good for us that Sparty can't stop the pass. They'll have to throw the ball eventually to keep up which will negate Walker. Last week I thought why is the spread 21? Well we found out why.

Now I'm wondering the same for the spread this week. Well I think I know why. The expectation is they can't stop us and I agree.
 
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bukIpower said:
Good for us that Sparty can't stop the pass. They'll have to throw the ball eventually to keep up which will negate Walker. Last week I thought why is the spread 21? Well we found out why.

Now I'm wondering the same for the spread this week. Well I think I know why. The expectation is they can't stop us and I agree.
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Spreads are the oddsmakers looking at public sentiment and trying to get the bets as close to 50/50.
Spreads are NOT what they expect the score to be.
I expect a nail biter. Bucks by single digits.
 
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TampaBuckeyes said:
Spreads are the oddsmakers looking at public sentiment and trying to get the bets as close to 50/50.
Spreads are NOT what they expect the score to be.
I expect a nail biter. Bucks by single digits.
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They came out with OSU -18 after we struggled with Nebraska. They aren't completely stupid or there wouldn't be a skyline in Vegas.

Sometimes they're wrong but when a line comes out like this? Makes me think they know something we don't.
 
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Bestbuck36 said:
They aren't going to beat us period. That said, Walker is capable in the passing game also so it's not completely cut and dry there. Still, the idea of Chambers spying him sounds pretty damn good to me.
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I guess we will have to see but we've been great vs the run besides the 1st two weeks.

Walker won't beat us. If Sparty is going to have success they'll have to throw.
 
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bukIpower said:
They came out with OSU -18 after we struggled with Nebraska. They aren't completely stupid or their wouldn't be a skyline in Vegas.

Sometimes they're wrong but when a line comes out like this? Makes me think they know something we don't.
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From what I've seen, in B1G conference play, is that the post-Oregon adjustments that Day had made have been highly impactful, particularly in home games. Some of those issues that were seen during-and-pre-Oregon have seemed more flagrant on the road (Pedo st, Neb). Buckeyes easily covered vs Purdue, and with this game at home, will likely cover, or come close to covering in a double-digit victory.
 
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bukIpower said:
They came out with OSU -18 after we struggled with Nebraska. They aren't completely stupid or their wouldn't be a skyline in Vegas.

Sometimes they're wrong but when a line comes out like this? Makes me think they know something we don't.
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Apparently they knew that MSU was #110 in total defense and dead last in passing ypg allowed. Didn't realize they were that bad. They do only allow 10.8 yards per completion, though.

The biggest question on offense is, will Day stay balanced and not become 1 dimensional even with a juicy matchup? Expecting a pass heavy start easing into more balance. Hope the end arounds and pop passes remain

Defense will be interesting. Should be a battle, although I think their passing game is a better matchup than Purdue's dink and dunk. DL will need to make some plays on 3rd and longs.
 
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1926Buckeyes said:
Apparently they knew that MSU was #110 in total defense and dead last in passing ypg allowed. Didn't realize they were that bad. They do only allow 10.8 yards per completion, though.

The biggest question on offense is, will Day stay balanced and not become 1 dimensional even with a juicy matchup? Expecting a pass heavy start easing into more balance. Hope the end arounds and pop passes remain

Defense will be interesting. Should be a battle, although I think their passing game is a better matchup than Purdue's dink and dunk. DL will need to make some plays on 3rd and longs.
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Sparty relies much more on a traditional run game to open play action for a traditional passing game. Imo they play into our strength and Purdue played to our absolute weakness.

I didn't realize Sparty was that bad on D so yeah 20+ sounds right. As for balance? We were balanced from the 1st play to the last vs Purdue and IMO we will see the same this week. I love the added horizontal run threat Wilson/JSN provide and what it does for Henderson and Williams.
 
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