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Scenarios for Final CFP Playoff Rankings

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OhioState001 said:
Scenario I probably shouldn't say but will: We beat PSU, lose to TTUN, beat Minn.

We get in as a 1 loss team? Should be ahead of Bama. Only 1 loss team with a better chance might be LSU if their only loss is SEC Champ game or UGA if they win SEC Championship
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The only teams that I think could be ahead of 1-loss, conf-Champ tOSU would be Clemson and Baylor if they're undefeated, and the SEC Champ. That scenario was actually covered in the first post of this thread, and the Buckeyes would be at least a 4 seed.
 
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kujirakira said:
Id rather beat them than go to playoffs...
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tumblr_ol89m2Iw6F1spkic4o4_500.gif
 
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I have updated the original post, eliminating scenarios that are no longer possible, and slightly changing things based on what's occurred.

This attempts to predict how the committee will rank teams at the end of the year. It does NOT try to predict the outcomes of the remaining games or which scenarios will actually occur. But if you have a scenario in mind that includes all the results, scrolling from top down until you find teams that match your results will find what I'm guessing will be the 4 seeds, in order.

I had to avoid scenarios which are extremely unlikely, like LSU losing to both Ole Miss and aTm, or tOSU beating Penn State but losing both other regular season games; in order to keep from having a huge number of possible outcomes.

NOTE - most scenarios cannot co-exist, so the first 6 teams listed are believed to control their own destiny. And if I'm correct, letter G (heaven forbid) would result in a Buckeye playoff appearance since only the SEC Champ, Clemson, and Baylor could be above tOSU in that scenario.

A. tOSU undefeated thru CCG (I think LSU will be #1 this week, but it tOSU wins out, they'd jump LSU)
B. LSU undefeated thru CCG
C. Clemson undefeated thru CCG
D. Minnesota undefeated thru CCG (unlikely, but they'd be in)
E. Baylor undefeated thru CCG (same as Minny)
F. Georgia wins out thru CCG, has 1 loss to USCe
G. tOSU 1-loss to TTUN, wins CCG over Minn/Wiscy
H. Penn St wins out, avenging loss to Minny in CCG - didn't have this scenario in first post
I. LSU 1-loss to UGA/Fla in CCG (non-champion)
J. tOSU 1-loss to Penn St, no CCG appearance
K. tOSU 1-loss in CCG to Minn/Wiscy (moved this ahead of Bama)
L. Bama 1-loss to LSU, no CCG appearance
M. Oregon wins out thru CCG, 1-loss vs Auburn
N. Oklahoma wins out, CCG is second win over Baylor
O. Utah beats Oregon in CCG, 1-loss at USC
P. Minnesota 1-loss B1G Champ
Q. Florida 2-loss SEC Champ, UGA loses 2 of Auburn/Mizzou/aTm
R. Baylor 1-loss Big12 Champ
 
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What those scenarios highlighted for me is the fact that the Pedsters will still be fully motivated. Not only will they be trying to get back at having their souls ripped out for two straight years by glorious Buckeye comebacks, but they are still very much alive for the Playoffs. If they were able to win out, they'd have a huge win over a top-2 Buckeye team, and they'd probably be avenging their road loss to Minny at a neutral site in Indy. That would put them ahead of Alabama and everybody in the Pac10 and Big XII except a Baylor team that was able to beat OKlahoma twice.

So the Pedsters damn near still control their own destiny.
 
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BB73 said:
What those scenarios highlighted for me is the fact that the Pedsters will still be fully motivated. Not only will they be trying to get back at having their souls ripped out for two straight years by glorious Buckeye comebacks, but they are still very much alive for the Playoffs. If they were able to win out, they'd have a huge win over a top-2 Buckeye team, and they'd probably be avenging their road loss to Minny at a neutral site in Indy. That would put them ahead of Alabama and everybody in the Pac10 and Big XII except a Baylor team that was able to beat OKlahoma twice.

So the Pedsters damn near still control their own destiny.
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That’s the brilliance of the way you lay that out

It makes every team’s path clear and it does so in a relatively objective way
 
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