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Rating teams based on All-time poll rankings

Discussion in 'College Football' started by BB73, Jan 6, 2005.

  1. Steve19

    Steve19 Watching. Always watching. Staff Member

    Great post BB73! Greenies for you!
     
  2. Zurp

    Zurp I have misplaced my pants.

    This was my favorite part:

     
  3. BB73

    BB73 Loves Buckeye History Staff Member Bookie '16 & '17 Upset Contest Winner

    scUM had been ranked at season's end every year since 1985. They lost to BYU in the 1984 Holiday Bowl to finsh 6-6 that year.

    So a string of 20 straight years in the final polls was broken. What a shame! :tongue2:
     
  4. Well we have a all-time better record against Notre Lame so we should be ahead of them.:biggrin:
     
  5. Dryden

    Dryden Sober as Sarkisian Staff Member Tech Admin

    According to your scoring method, if VY returns and leads Texas to a title defense, the Longhorns will pass Nebraska presuming the Cornhuskers finish no higher than eight.

    BTW, congrats Longhorns on the landmark win. What a way to announce your arrival to the 800 Club!
     
  6. DaddyBigBucks

    DaddyBigBucks Administrator Staff Member Bookie

    To ANYONE who did not give greenies for this:
    1. Do you know HOW to give greenies? If not, PM me and I'll fill you in.
    2. If you know how, do you know WHY they're given?
    3. If you know how and you know why and still didn't give greenies; your only excuse is that you're green with envy.
     
  7. BB73

    BB73 Loves Buckeye History Staff Member Bookie '16 & '17 Upset Contest Winner

    This has been updated after the final polls for the 2006 season.

    OK, here's how this was calculated. I took each team's ranking in every year-end poll since the AP started in 1936. Once 2 polls were involved, I always used the higher ranking. Sliding scale points were awarded for every year that a team ended up ranked, and 10 points were deducted for each losing season. The scale was determined before seeing where teams ended up.

    For each year since 1936, a team earns points based on these criteria:

    NC (#1) in either poll = 100 points
    02 -> 05 = 65, 55, 50, 45 points, respectively
    06 -> 10 = 40, 37, 34, 32, 30 points
    11 -> 20 = 28, 26, 24, 22, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10 points
    21 -> 25 = 08, 06, 04, 03, 02 points
    non-ranked, but .500 or above = 0 points
    losing record for the year = minus 10 points

    Here are the all-time totals, updated after the 2006 final polls:

    01. 2274 - Oklahoma (re-passed ND after 2006)
    02. 2265 - Notre Dame
    03. 2109 - Ohio State (passed Bama after 2004)
    04. 2010 - Alabama (-10 for losing record in 2006)
    05. 1966 - Michigan
    06. 1812 - USC
    07. 1679 - Nebraska
    08. 1639 - Texas
    09. 1507 - Tennessee
    10. 1418 - Penn State
    11. 1181 - Miami
    12. 1104 - Florida State
    13. 0944 - LSU
    14. 0932 - Auburn
    15. 0928 - Georgia
    16. 0899 - UCLA
    17. 0892 - Florida
    18. 0697 - Arkansas
    19. 0678 - Michigan State
    20. 0599 - Washington
    21. 0525 - Georgia Tech
    22. 0459 - Ole Miss
    23. 0434 - Texas A&M
    24. 0423 - Colorado
    25. 0419 - Pittsburgh
    26. 0399 - Minnesota

    Other schools: Clemson(396), Syracuse(347), Army(327), Wisconsin(274), Iowa(248), Purdue(135)
     
  8. BB73

    BB73 Loves Buckeye History Staff Member Bookie '16 & '17 Upset Contest Winner

    Bump for discussion of all-time programs.
     
  9. BB73

    BB73 Loves Buckeye History Staff Member Bookie '16 & '17 Upset Contest Winner

    This has been updated after the final polls for the 2007 season.

    OK, here's how this was calculated. I took each team's ranking in every year-end poll since the AP started in 1936. Once 2 polls were involved, I always used the higher ranking. Sliding scale points were awarded for every year that a team ended up ranked, and 10 points were deducted for each losing season. The scale was determined before seeing where teams ended up.

    For each year since 1936, a team earns points based on these criteria:

    NC (#1) in either poll = 100 points
    02 -> 05 = 65, 55, 50, 45 points, respectively
    06 -> 10 = 40, 37, 34, 32, 30 points
    11 -> 20 = 28, 26, 24, 22, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10 points
    21 -> 25 = 08, 06, 04, 03, 02 points
    non-ranked, but .500 or above = 0 points
    losing record for the year = minus 10 points

    Here are the all-time totals, updated after the 2007 final polls:

    01. 2308 - Oklahoma
    02. 2255 - Notre Dame (-10 for losing record in 2007)
    03. 2159 - Ohio State
    04. 2010 - Alabama
    05. 1980 - Michigan
    06. 1877 - USC
    T7. 1669 - Nebraska (-10 for losing record in 2007)
    T7. 1669 - Texas
    09. 1533 - Tennessee
    10. 1420 - Penn State
    11. 1171 - Miami (-10 for losing record in 2007)
    12. 1104 - Florida State
    13. 1044 - LSU
    14. 0993 - Georgia
    15. 0954 - Auburn
    16. 0916 - Florida
    17. 0889 - UCLA (-10 for losing season in 2007)
    18. 0697 - Arkansas
    19. 0668 - Michigan State
    20. 0589 - Washington (-10 for losing season in 2007)
    21. 0525 - Georgia Tech
    22. 0449 - Ole Miss (-10 for losing season in 2007)
    23. 0434 - Texas A&M
    24. 0413 - Colorado
    25. 0409 - Pittsburgh

    Other schools: Clemson(404), Minnesota(389), Syracuse(337), Army(317), Wisconsin(282), Iowa(248), Purdue(135), Illinois (23)

    New this year, I have given National Championship credit for those earned prior to 1936, on a sliding scale based on 12-year periods.

    1869-1899 - 10 points for each MNC (no top teams here, almost all Ivy League)
    1900-1911 - 25 points for each MNC
    1912-1923 - 50 points for each MNC
    1924-1935 - 75 points for each MNC

    Here are the all-time totals, updated with the pre-1936 MNC points:

    01. 2480 - Notre Dame (MNCs in '24, '29, '30)
    02. 2308 - Oklahoma
    03. 2285 - Alabama (MNCs in '25, '26, '34, 2/3 for '30)
    04. 2180 - Michigan (MNCs in '01, '02, '23, '33)
    05. 2159 - Ohio State
    06. 2077 - USC (MNCs in '31, '32, 2/3 for '28)
    T7. 1669 - Nebraska
    T7. 1669 - Texas
    09. 1533 - Tennessee
    10. 1420 - Penn State
    11. 1171 - Miami
    12. 1104 - Florida State
    13. 1044 - LSU
    14. 0993 - Georgia
    15. 0954 - Auburn
    16. 0916 - Florida
    17. 0889 - UCLA
    18. 0697 - Arkansas
    19. 0668 - Michigan State
    20. 0650 - Georgia Tech (MNCs in '17, '28)
    21. 0589 - Washington
    22. 0539 - Minnesota (MNCs in '34, '35)
    23. 0534 - Pittsburgh (MNCs in '10, '16' '18)
    24. 0484 - Texas A&M (MNC in '19)
    25. 0449 - Ole Miss
    26. 0413 - Colorado

    Note - USC and Bama received 50 points, rather than 75, for disputed titles in '28 and '30, respectively

    Note - Illinois, with MNCs in '14, '23, and '27 fails to make the top 30.
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2008
  10. SparkyOSU

    SparkyOSU ...????

    \SEC loving commie.
     
  11. SparkyOSU

    SparkyOSU ...????

    Army and Navy still dont make the list after adding pre '36?

    Nebraska is tied with Texas, 'Huskers worst nightmare (besides being behind the Sooners)
     
  12. BB73

    BB73 Loves Buckeye History Staff Member Bookie '16 & '17 Upset Contest Winner

    Army ended up with 342 points. Their only pre-1936 title was in 1914.

    Navy never won the MNC.

    For both of them, the subtracting of 10 points for each losing season hurts them. But I believe that feature fairly penalizes programs that have been up-and-down.
     
    leroyjenkins likes this.
  13. shetuck

    shetuck What do you need water for, Sunshine?

    BB's data got me thinking...

    You hear a lot in the media pumping up this-and-that program as a perennial powerhouse, or a dynasty, or as one that's "rich with tradition". So much so that's it's pretty much become a throw-away notion or a clich?.

    BB's data bears, significantly, on this notion. You can put all these programs right next to each other and look down at the ordinal ranking and miss two very important characteristics:

    1. There is an ENORMOUS achievement gap between #1 and #20 and ...
    2. ... there are HUGE gaps between the top three, six, and ten, say and the rest. There's a big step-off going from tOSU (#3) to Alabama (#4). There's also a huge cliff dropping off from USC (#6) to Nebraska and Texas (#7 and #8). There's also a relatively huge step going down from Penn State (#10) to Miami (#11) and from UCLA (#17) to A-Kansas (#18).

    To paint this picture the numbers are Turing to tell, I made a somewhat kludgey/ugly graph in excel. Kind of interesting that you could probably regress/fit a fairly straight line through the names of the programs, but there is clearly an elite class of programs that tower over everyone else.

    It might also be interesting to overlay some color-coding on here based on conference...

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2008
    leroyjenkins likes this.
  14. shetuck

    shetuck What do you need water for, Sunshine?

    here's a colorized version of the chart. not sure what to think...

    a lot of SEC colors, but mostly in the middle of the pack. bama is the only one that stands apart.

    not having done this type of analysis, my gut has always told me that, when looking at conferences (as opposed to individual teams) the big 12 is the best overall CFB conference historically. so BKB's data shows that it appears that the big 12 is the overall strongest "tradition of success" in CFB.

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2008
  15. leroyjenkins

    leroyjenkins Choose positivity

    Why's the SEC pink?? LOL. Mustve got trapped in the locker rooms at Kinnick!
     

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