Ranking the top 5 Conferences

[BB73]

The hard part of ranking the conferences is determining an objective way to evaluate them. Here is the approach I took.

First, ignore all in-conference play. All conferences end up with a .500 record, by definition.

Second, ignore all wins over non-Division 1-A teams, and teams not ranked in the top 100 (of the CBS-119 poll). No credit is given for beating cupcakes here, but a hammer comes out if there's a loss to one.

Third, evaluate the 'good wins'; those that came against the teams in the other top-5 conferences, or against opponents that are still ranked.

Fourth, evaluate the 'bad losses', those that came to unranked teams that aren't in the top-5 conferences (this excludes losses to ND, West Va., TCU, and Fresno St.).

I bolded good road wins, and 1 atrocious loss.

Conf.....non-conf record
...............vs. top-100..................good wins.................bad losses

Big 10........19-6................Wiscy-at-NC, Ind/Ky.................none
.......................................MSU-at-ND, Purd-at-Ariz

ACC...........15-7...............Clem/aTm, GTech-at-Aub,......Duke-Navy
...................................Miami/Colo, VaTech-at-W.Va.....Duke-at-E.Car.

Pac-10.......12-7.............USC/Ark, USC-at-ND, Cal/Ill......Az-at-Utah
.................................UCLA/Okla, AzSt/NW, Oreg/Fres....Wash-A.F.
...............................................................................Stan-Cal-Davis

Big-12........12-5...............Neb/Wake, Ia St/Iowa............Mo-N. Mex.
...........................................Texas-at-tOSU

SEC............12-7............Vandy-at-Wake, LSU-at-AzSt.....Vandy-MTSU, MsSt-Hous
................................................................................Ky-Louisv, Miss-Wyo

The Big 10 clearly rates as the top conference, and the SEC rates 5th, with all of their bad losses coming at home. The SEC's best win is LSU @ Ariz. St., who is now 3-4. The SEC does still have some games left to make a statement: Ga-at-GTech, Fla-at-FSU, Tenn-at-ND, S.Car-at-Clem.

The other 3 conferences can argue about 2/3/4. The Big-12 piles up Div 1-A wins against teams ranked below 100; they have 11, the SEC has only 3, and the other conferences all have 5. Those wins weren't counted in the records listed above.


Here are Sagarin's current conference rankings, which actually make sense:

CONFERENCE CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS

01 BIG TEN..............(A) = 81.63........80.67....( 1)..........11
02 ATLANTIC COAST.(A) = 77.73........77.63....( 4)..........12
03 PAC-10...............(A) = 77.33........77.84....( 3)..........10
04 BIG 12................(A) = 77.15........77.87....( 2)..........12
05 SOUTHEASTERN....(A) = 76.36........76.17...( 5)..........12
06 BIG EAST.............(A) = 72.50........72.40...( 6)............8
07 I-A INDEPENDENTS.(A) = 71.35.......72.31....( 7)...........3
08 MOUNTAIN WEST...(A) = 70.94........70.68...( 8)............9
09 CONFERENCE USA...(A) = 67.54........67.23...( 9)..........12
10 MID-AMERICAN.......(A) = 62.84........62.35..(10)..........13
11 WESTERN ATHLETIC(A) = 61.40........62.30..(11)............9
12 BIG SKY...............(AA) = 56.70........55.75..(12)............8
13 GREAT WEST........(AA) = 55.44........54.32..(15)............6
14 SUN BELT..............(A) = 54.80.........54.23..(16)............8

 

[sandgk]

Interesting - 2 radically different approaches yield the same top 2 conferences - in order, and the same closeness between the next three conferences.

Sagarin uses a quite complex model and statistics. Yours has the beauty of being immediately understandable.

How does the Big LEast fare when you run them through this wringer?

 

[BUCKYLE]

Nice work. I wonder what it would look like over five years.

 

[Dryden]

Interesting that Sagarin ranks the Sun Belt below two 1AA conferences.

Sun Belt
Arkansas St.
Florida Atlantic
Florida International
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Monroe
Middle Tennessee St.
North Texas
Troy

All of these teams are common opponents to Big-XII and SEC teams.

Maybe we should lay off Tommy Tuberville and Auburn over playing Citadel, since they played UL-Monroe in 2004 too.

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

Nice work. I wonder what it would look like over five years.

Great idea, but I'm not sure I want to sign bb73 up for that much work.

How about updating it after the bowls though? I would love to see that.

Living here in ACC country, any ammo I can get helps.

 

[BUCKYLE]

Great idea, but I'm not sure I want to sign bb73 up for that much work.

How about updating it after the bowls though? I would love to see that.

Living here in ACC country, any ammo I can get helps.

yeah, im sure thats alot of work, just wondering. but i live in ACC/ SEC country, so any ammo such as this is much appreciated.

 

[BB73]

Great idea, but I'm not sure I want to sign bb73 up for that much work.

How about updating it after the bowls though? I would love to see that.

Living here in ACC country, any ammo I can get helps.

Th bowls thing I can definitely do. As for the 5 year thing, probably. I do this kind of stuff every year.

 

[BUCKYLE]

Th bowls thing I can definitely do. As for the 5 year thing, probably. I do this kind of stuff every year.

The 5 year thing would be really cool. but dont do it unless you have an interest in it. i just wondered where the B10 stacked up. honestly, ill argue that the B10 is the best without the statistical evidence.

greenies once a day from me for a week if ya do. it would be nice to have a printout of evidence to shut the jawja fans up. that is, if they can read it.:tongue2:

 

[buckeye4ever21]

Nice work but there's no way that the SEC finishes last in this race. The Pac 10 and the Big 12 are by far the 2 worst conferences. The SEC has to be the top conference with 2 undefeated teams and 6 ranked in the top 25. Followed by the big 10 with 4 and the ACC not far behind, the big ten is better top to bottom. 4th is the Pac 10 followed by the a distant last in the Big 12. I like the work you put in, but the results dont make sense. From watching the games you can clearly tell which conferences are better top to bottom. Basically all of the teams in the Big 12 and Pac 10 are one dimensional except for a few examples(USC and Texas). You could make an arguement for the SEC and the Big 10 switching but anything lower than that is absurd for the SEC. With the talent they have they would not fall behind the Pac 10 and Big 12.

 

[BUCKYLE]

Nice work but there's no way that the SEC finishes last in this race. The Pac 10 and the Big 12 are by far the 2 worst conferences. The SEC has to be the top conference with 2 undefeated teams and 6 ranked in the top 25. Followed by the big 10 with 4 and the ACC not far behind, the big ten is better top to bottom. 4th is the Pac 10 followed by the a distant last in the Big 12. I like the work you put in, but the results dont make sense. From watching the games you can clearly tell which conferences are better top to bottom. Basically all of the teams in the Big 12 and Pac 10 are one dimensional except for a few examples(USC and Texas). You could make an arguement for the SEC and the Big 10 switching but anything lower than that is absurd for the SEC. With the talent they have they would not fall behind the Pac 10 and Big 12.

say what you will, but we will see how the SEC fares come bowl season. my guess is that most will prove they were over rated, much like last year when iowa beat lsu, and minny beat alabama.

 

[methomps]

Nice work but there's no way that the SEC finishes last in this race. The Pac 10 and the Big 12 are by far the 2 worst conferences. The SEC has to be the top conference with 2 undefeated teams and 6 ranked in the top 25. Followed by the big 10 with 4 and the ACC not far behind, the big ten is better top to bottom. 4th is the Pac 10 followed by the a distant last in the Big 12. I like the work you put in, but the results dont make sense. From watching the games you can clearly tell which conferences are better top to bottom. Basically all of the teams in the Big 12 and Pac 10 are one dimensional except for a few examples(USC and Texas). You could make an arguement for the SEC and the Big 10 switching but anything lower than that is absurd for the SEC. With the talent they have they would not fall behind the Pac 10 and Big 12.

Why does the SEC have to be the top conference? Because ESPN says so? Because tradition dictates? Maybe the prevailing opinion is just wrong? Maybe you see that the SEC is the best because you reject or ignore any evidence (such as this) to contrary.


Aren't there a lot of one dimensional teams in the SEC, too?

South Carolina - 89th in total O, 50th in total D
Tennessee- 94th in total O
Kentucky- 107th in total O, 100th in total D
Vanderbilt- 55th in total O, 74th in total D
Alabama- 59th in total O
LSU- 57th in total O
Mississippi- 98th in total O
Mississippi St- 108th in total O, 51st in total D
Arkansas- 78th in total D

 

[Dryden]

Nice work but there's no way that the SEC finishes last in this race. The Pac 10 and the Big 12 are by far the 2 worst conferences. The SEC has to be the top conference with 2 undefeated teams and 6 ranked in the top 25. Followed by the big 10 with 4 and the ACC not far behind, the big ten is better top to bottom. 4th is the Pac 10 followed by the a distant last in the Big 12. I like the work you put in, but the results dont make sense. From watching the games you can clearly tell which conferences are better top to bottom. Basically all of the teams in the Big 12 and Pac 10 are one dimensional except for a few examples(USC and Texas). You could make an arguement for the SEC and the Big 10 switching but anything lower than that is absurd for the SEC. With the talent they have they would not fall behind the Pac 10 and Big 12.

The 'SEC is the best' conference is the biggest load of horseshit that ESPN's analysts perpetuate. I think it's ironic that Tommy Tuberville is biting the hand that feeds, because ESPN is right up there with CBS for the official network of the SEC.

Firstly, a full half of the conference absolutely blows. Mississippi, Mississippi St., Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and South Carolina are all horrible. Just because 6 teams in the SEC are ranked doesn't mean they should be. Should Tennessee be ranked with a 3-3 record? Outside of the Les Miles coaching debacle when LSU hosted Tennessee, the Vols' lone wins are over UAB and Ole Miss (these two teams combined have won four games against 1A opponents Rice, Kentucky, Memphis, and Troy). Florida, LSU and Auburn have been models of inconsistency, and Georgia and Alabama may not have enough ponies left to finish the SEC race due to substantial injuries.

There has traditionally been a lot of parity between the SEC and Big 10 year-in and year-out. Look at last years bowls: Alabama v. Minnesota, Georgia v. Wisconsin and LSU v. Iowa, all of these games were competitive up to the very last play. Georgia beat the Badgers by 3, The Gophers beat 'Bama by 4, and Iowa beat LSU by 5 on the last play of the game.

This year isn't one of those years.

The only measure to gauge the SEC is the on-field performance, and not a single SEC team has an offense that ranks in the Top 30 in the nation. Auburn, Georgia, and Arkansas are the only teams even in the Top 50. The defensive numbers are comical, since the SEC places seven teams in the Top 25.

Here's how 'great' these SEC defenses are:

#4 Alabama: Within the SEC has played Florida, South Carolina, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Arkansas. All of these offenses are inept, whether facing SEC defenses or not. OOC Alabama has played Middle Tennessee State and Southern Miss. You want to know how bad the SEC offenses are? Southern Miss hung 21 on Bama in the first half in Tuscaloosa! Florida and Tennessee, by comparison, both managed 3 points.

#5 Florida: Within the SEC has played Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Mississippi State, and LSU. Not a single one of these teams ranks in the Top 50 in the nation for offense. OOC Florida has played Wyoming and Louisiana Tech. Please ...

#8 Auburn: Yeah ... right! Auburn has beaten Mississippi State, Kentucky, and South Carolina, but the best offenses they've faced were Georgia Tech (which Auburn lost to), 1AA Western Kentucky (who managed more points on this D than half of Auburn's SEC opponents) and Ball State (which may not even have 22 eligible players anymore).

I won't even go on with the rest, because it's really pretty disgraceful. It would be equivilent to Ohio State fans thumping their chest for being 7-0 with the nations' top defense after playing a schedule of Youngstown State, Kent St., Cincinnati, Indiana, Illinois, Purdue, and the 2004 version of Penn State. It's laughable.

 

[buckeye4ever21]

I said either 1st or 2nd I didn't say only first I just think from watching them that they are stronger. It doesn't really matter what the bottom of the confernce does because they don't even make bowls. Just looking at the upper half of each conference tells me that the SEC has the advantage. Methomps LSU and Alabama have offenses of 59th and 57th but what you neglected to mention was the fact that they are 22 and 4th defensively and the key difference between a good and great team is a great defense and ohh yeah their records 5-1 and 7-0.

I calculated 4 averages between the top 6 teams in these 3 conferences
Big ten-OSU, PSU, UM, Iowa, NW, Wisc. ACC-FSU, BC, VT, MU, GT, Mary. SEC-Ga., Fla, Tenn, Ala, Aub, LSU

Conference Offense, Points Scored, Defense, Points given up, Record
Big Ten 1st 418.7 1st 33.1 3rd 364.9 3rd 20.9 3rd 34-12
ACC 2nd 399.1 2nd 30.0 1st 278.1 2nd 15.6 1st 32-8
SEC 3rd 383.8 3rd 27.0 2nd 284.4 1st 14.3 1st 32-8

The big 10 has the best offense with the SEC having the best defense. The only real way to distinguish the best conference is to match them up head to head and i matched them by rankings in the nation best big ten vs best SEC. Who would win between PSU-Ga., OSU-Ala, Aub-Wisc, NW-Fla, Mich-LSU, Iowa-Tenn. My picks would be Ga., OSU, Aub, Fla, LSU, Tenn. These games could go wither way but these are my pics.

 

[BB73]

Gee, let's only talk about half of a conference since it helps my argument. Lame.

 

[methomps]

I said either 1st or 2nd I didn't say only first I just think from watching them that they are stronger. It doesn't really matter what the bottom of the confernce does because they don't even make bowls. Just looking at the upper half of each conference tells me that the SEC has the advantage. Methomps LSU and Alabama have offenses of 59th and 57th but what you neglected to mention was the fact that they are 22 and 4th defensively and the key difference between a good and great team is a great defense and ohh yeah their records 5-1 and 7-0.

So a one-dimensional defensive team is good but a one-dimensional offensive team is bad? It does matter what the bottom half of the conference looks like because the top half of the conference feeds off the bottom half. It's easy to get bowl eligible if you play 3 crappy OOC teams and then Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State. Helps your defensive stats, too.

How can you say that the SEC is top-to-bottom the best conference and then turn around and say "ignore the bottom"?