QB Production year-to-year

[DaddyBigBucks]

This is the 2nd in a series of analyses requested by 3yards'.

Assumptions and Constraints

• As for the running backs, I only went back to 1999 and only used the top 100 ranked performances for each year (except for 1999, for which I used the top 50). If you really care why I did this, see the RB thread.
• The NCAA web-site used the class rank for some guys, and their eligibility class (including Red Shirt status) for others. Fixing this was time consuming and almost certainly inexact. There was still enough data for the results to give a good general trend though.
• I only calculated the improvement averages for efficiency rating and interceptions.

Results

The results for QBs were much more in keeping with what you would expect, with fairly monotonic improvement throughout each QBs career.

Efficiency Rating

• Overall average improvement in efficiency rating was about 4.2.
• The average improvement in efficiency rating seniors (over their junior year) was about 5.7.
• The average improvement in efficiency rating juniors (over their sophomore year) was about 1.2.
• The average improvement in efficiency rating sophomores (over their freshman year) was about 4.5.
• Considering the standard deviation (over 17), this is roughly monotonic.

Interceptions

• The average QB threw 0.28 fewer interceptions per 100 attempts when compared to their previous year's performance.
• The average junior threw 0.21 fewer INTs as a senior.
• The average sophomore threw 0.37 fewer INTs as a junior.
• The average freshman threw 0.11 fewer INTs as a sophomore.

The fact that the sophomore-junior transition showed a higher rate of improvement in INTs, but a lower rate of improvement in overall efficiency might indicate slightly over-cautious play by the juniors and more confidence by the senior.

Filtering for those who performed well enough to become the focus of the other team's defense:

• Those QBs who had an efficiency rating greater than 140 as juniors actually saw their efficiency go DOWN by 3.7 points on average as seniors.
• Sophomores who did as well fare even worse as juniors, suffering a 12.9 point average drop in efficiency rating.

While a good passing game seemed to help a high-profile running back improve on his previous year; a good running game seems to have been a huge benefit to quarterbacks.

Among the junior quarterbacks who experienced the most improvement as seniors were Asad Abdul-Khaliq of Minnesota (yes, they have a running game) and Jason Campbell of Auburn (two top-5 draft picks to hand the ball to).

One final note on QB improvement. Actually, this is about the QB who's efficiency DROPPED OFF more than any other from one year to the next. Who was it?

Michael Vick. He went from 180.4 in 1999, the 2nd highest efficiency for any QB in the last 7 seasons, to 127.4 in 2000.

 

[BB73]

Thanks for more good stuff, DBB.

That drop in efficiency didn't seem to hurt Vick when the 2001 NFL draft came around.

 

[808 Buck]

DaddyBigBucks continues to amaze. An observation that I would offer would be that the teams that have effective running games, thus enhancing QB production, would probably have a solid O-line. You could infer, though this is not always the case, that they would offer the QB greater protection. Proficient running teams will generally see defenses that "load up in the box", pulling an extra defender out of coverage,which gives the QB an easier read when he does pass. Also, the effect of play-action is much greater, which is again to the QB's advantage. Throw in a QB who is mobile, the possibilities are endless. Of course, Vick meets all of the above, and had the biggest drop, thereby killing my theory. Thanks again to DBB.

 

[3yardsandacloud]

Great stuff once again DBB. That's more like what I was expecting to see. I especially like the fact that the Bucks should have a pretty good running game going this season. When was the last time I said that? Seems like it's been several years since I was optimistic about our running game. That should never be the case.

Bodes well for Troy. Of course, having a pretty good QB also bodes well for the RBs.