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- Thread starter HotMic
- Start date
Schlegel was talking about this on “The Podcast.” Made some good points that not only throwing against 60mph winds is darn near impossible, but going with the winds the ball is going to pick up an additional 20mph speed which would alter the trajectory and catch speed (that the WRs may not be used to). This would be the same as reading winds for shooting, instead Stroud is “firing” under pressure and non-stationary.
From the podcasts I’ve watched, it seems the referendum is more on the weak RB play than it is Stroud. If anything it seems he picked up respect over the last few weeks by flashing some inner-Barrett and winning with his legs if he has to.
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I watched the game again today and damned if he wasnt still pretty freaking accurate. The deep balls were the worst obviously but the drops were ridiculous. How he was still able to at least put the ball in a catchable radius 80% of the time in that shit is unreal. As Schleges mentioned and backed up by Egbuka, the ball got on the receivers at different times and they just lost concentration too much where it would usually be so easy for them to just snatch it and go on.
Hell CJ's Heisman candidacy should be improved more than decreased imo but the idiots in the media aren't paying fucking attention. Imagine that
Hell CJ's Heisman candidacy should be improved more than decreased imo but the idiots in the media aren't paying fucking attention. Imagine that
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Pretty sure it’s NOAA (www.noaa.gov)
I don’t think Noah gets involved until you break his record for rainfall
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Nah man, the pundits only look at the box score stats. Bo Nix playing in sunny 70° and Stroud fighting gale force wins goes unnoticed.
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Zurp
I have misplaced my pants.
I agree that it should be his easily. I posted this in one of DBB's stats threads - Heisman voters should be required to look at the stats that DBB posts. Unfortunately, I think many vote with who has the "wow" factor. Hooker beats Alabama. Wow!!! Stroud... um.... beat Northwestern? Kinda? So... I'm not sure it's his so easily.
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Imagine if we still had last years Defense.
CJ would have 40 touchdowns by now because he'd be playing entire games and the media would still find a way to diminish his games. The only reason UNC's QB is getting any mention is because they absolutely suck. Bo Nix is the fresh name because they are also playing teams that suck. Somehow people have forgotten who Bo Nix really is. Too bad there is probably no Defense out there that will remind people.
CJ would have 40 touchdowns by now because he'd be playing entire games and the media would still find a way to diminish his games. The only reason UNC's QB is getting any mention is because they absolutely suck. Bo Nix is the fresh name because they are also playing teams that suck. Somehow people have forgotten who Bo Nix really is. Too bad there is probably no Defense out there that will remind people.
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Heisman Race Update
At THIS LINK you will find last week's comparison that shows quite vividly C.J. Stroud's superiority to other top FBS quarterbacks to this point in the season. Below is a continuation of that comparison with an update to the season stats.
HERE you will find a brief glossary of the terms used herein. These terms are also explained within this post, but in future weeks the explanations will be elided. We will simply include links to the glossary.
While we continue to include the numbers for the top 5 quarterbacks, it remains a two-man Heisman race. We also include J.J. McCarthy, the second ranked QB in the B1G, because when deciding whether to include Michigan it seems only fair to use a lower standard for them than for everyone else. Composite rank is determined by taking all of the passing stats that went against that quarterback's opponents all year, combining them into one efficiency rating, and seeing where that rating would rank this week among the nation's pass defenses. My Pass Efficiency rating for the non-B1G quarterbacks is different from what you will see elsewhere because I have discarded all FCS games.
That looks a lot closer than last week. Stroud is only about 7-and-3/4 points ahead of Hooker, but Hooker has played better competition. No one else is particularly close.
There is the small matter of Stroud's efficiency having gone down by 15 points because he played in the worst conditions since the Dothraki inexplicably charged the White Walkers in the last season of Game of Thrones. But like it or not, the game happened and we're going to pretend that 11% of Stroud's numbers aren't being graded unfairly. The truth is, he's still leading the nation in passing efficiency after all that, so apparently he doesn't need to be graded fairly.
As we did last week, we now turn to a metric with more context built into it, Differential Pass Efficiency (DPE). This is a ratio of how well a quarterback has done against his opponents (pass efficiency) to how well their opponents have typically done against everyone else (defensive pass efficiency).
The columns in the following table can be interpreted as follows:
Quarterback: The quarterback to whom the numbers in that row apply. Glad I could clear that up for you.
DPE: Differential Pass Efficiency - Ratio of your PE to your opponents' average PED
Rigidity: A number that indicates how well a quarterback maintains performance against the best competition. Positive numbers indicate better performance against better competition where as negative numbers are indicative of bullies who pad stats against lesser competition.
The above table is ordered by Differential passing efficiency.
Everyone in the table had a bad week, oddly enough, but the top two are still well ahead of everyone else and have played better competition. Hooker's performance against Georgia torpedoed his rigidity, as you might expect, while Stroud's rigidity went up, in part because of the good performance of some of the pass defenses he has faced this year.
Stroud has three more outdoor games this year. If the weather holds, so will his grip on the top spot.
At THIS LINK you will find last week's comparison that shows quite vividly C.J. Stroud's superiority to other top FBS quarterbacks to this point in the season. Below is a continuation of that comparison with an update to the season stats.
HERE you will find a brief glossary of the terms used herein. These terms are also explained within this post, but in future weeks the explanations will be elided. We will simply include links to the glossary.
While we continue to include the numbers for the top 5 quarterbacks, it remains a two-man Heisman race. We also include J.J. McCarthy, the second ranked QB in the B1G, because when deciding whether to include Michigan it seems only fair to use a lower standard for them than for everyone else. Composite rank is determined by taking all of the passing stats that went against that quarterback's opponents all year, combining them into one efficiency rating, and seeing where that rating would rank this week among the nation's pass defenses. My Pass Efficiency rating for the non-B1G quarterbacks is different from what you will see elsewhere because I have discarded all FCS games.
| Rank | Quarterback | Overall PE | Composite PED |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stroud | 185.844 | 27 |
| 2 | Maye | 180.756 | 34 |
| 3 | Hooker | 178.065 | 20 |
| 4 | McCall | 174.721 | 55 |
| 5 | Duggan | 170.292 | 79 |
| 20 | McCarthy | 158.296 | 58 |
There is the small matter of Stroud's efficiency having gone down by 15 points because he played in the worst conditions since the Dothraki inexplicably charged the White Walkers in the last season of Game of Thrones. But like it or not, the game happened and we're going to pretend that 11% of Stroud's numbers aren't being graded unfairly. The truth is, he's still leading the nation in passing efficiency after all that, so apparently he doesn't need to be graded fairly.
As we did last week, we now turn to a metric with more context built into it, Differential Pass Efficiency (DPE). This is a ratio of how well a quarterback has done against his opponents (pass efficiency) to how well their opponents have typically done against everyone else (defensive pass efficiency).
The columns in the following table can be interpreted as follows:
Quarterback: The quarterback to whom the numbers in that row apply. Glad I could clear that up for you.
DPE: Differential Pass Efficiency - Ratio of your PE to your opponents' average PED
Rigidity: A number that indicates how well a quarterback maintains performance against the best competition. Positive numbers indicate better performance against better competition where as negative numbers are indicative of bullies who pad stats against lesser competition.
| Quarterback | PE vs FBS | QB's DPE | Rigidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stroud | 185.844 | 1.551 | 49.901 |
| Hooker | 178.065 | 1.531 | 9.853 |
| Maye | 180.756 | 1.482 | 79.998 |
| McCall | 174.721 | 1.385 | -6.206 |
| Duggan | 170.292 | 1.286 | 76.765 |
| McCarthy | 158.296 | 1.250 | 7.313 |
Everyone in the table had a bad week, oddly enough, but the top two are still well ahead of everyone else and have played better competition. Hooker's performance against Georgia torpedoed his rigidity, as you might expect, while Stroud's rigidity went up, in part because of the good performance of some of the pass defenses he has faced this year.
Stroud has three more outdoor games this year. If the weather holds, so will his grip on the top spot.
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Sounds to me like he would like to keep it once or twice per game on those to get more "comfortable" within the game. I say go for it but dont get yourself hurt trying to GO for it. Pack on 100 total yards and maybe a goal line TD and he will solidify the Heisman chances along with the Buckeye chances. Do this the next two weeks and it opens up that option off the RO down the field vs the scummers
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Tennessee plays 4-5 Missouri tomorrow
Ohio State plays 3-6 Indiana
Missouri is 71st in DSC
Indiana is 77th in DSC
By objective measures, they aren't that different
It will be interesting to see how the various networks frame those games; or it would be if I didn't mute the tv when they cut away to the studio
According to DSA, Stroud is likely to have a game ranging from 210-270 (Passing efficiency) tomorrow.
Hooker, on the other hand, is likely to be between 145 and 193 according to DSA.
The quality of the opponent is not that different. It isn't likely to be reported that way.
Ohio State plays 3-6 Indiana
Missouri is 71st in DSC
Indiana is 77th in DSC
By objective measures, they aren't that different
It will be interesting to see how the various networks frame those games; or it would be if I didn't mute the tv when they cut away to the studio
According to DSA, Stroud is likely to have a game ranging from 210-270 (Passing efficiency) tomorrow.
Hooker, on the other hand, is likely to be between 145 and 193 according to DSA.
The quality of the opponent is not that different. It isn't likely to be reported that way.
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